1. Evaluating the impact of keeping indoor dining closed on COVID-19 rates among large US cities: a quasi-experimental design
- Author
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Pricila Mullachery, Jennifer Kolker, Ana V. Diez Roux, Alina S. Schnake-Mahl, Heather Rollins, Usama Bilal, Gabrielle Connor, Gabriella O’Leary, and Vaishnavi Vaidya
- Subjects
Transport engineering ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,Geography ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,State government ,Quasi-experiment - Abstract
ObjectiveIndoor dining is one of the potential key drivers of COVID-19 transmission. We leverage the heterogeneity in state government preemption of city indoor dining closures, to estimate the impact of keeping indoor dining closed on COVID-19 incidence.MethodsWe obtained case rates and city/state re-opening dates from March to October 2020 in 11 U.S. cities. We categorized cities as (treatment) cities that were allowed by the state to reopen but kept indoor dining closed; and (comparison) cities that would have kept indoor dining closed but were preempted by their state and had to reopen indoor dining.ResultsKeeping indoor dining closed was associated with a 43% (IRR=0.57, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.69) decline in COVID-19 incidence over 4-weeks compared with cities that reopened indoor dining. These results were consistent after testing alternative modeling strategies.ConclusionsKeeping indoor dining closed contributes to reductions in COVID-19 spread.Policy ImplicationsEvidence of the relationship between indoor dining and COVID-19 incidence can inform state and local decisions to restrict indoor dining as a tailored strategy to reduce COVID-19 incidence.
- Published
- 2021
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