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Invasive alien species are one of the major threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem integrity, nature’s contribution to people and human health. While scenarios about potential future developments have been available for other global change drivers for quite some time, we largely lack an understanding of how biological invasions might unfold in the future across spatial scales.Based on previous work on global invasion scenarios, we developed a workflow to downscale global scenarios to a regional and policy-relevant context. We applied this workflow at the European scale to create four European scenarios of biological invasions until 2050 that consider different environmental, socio-economic and socio-cultural trajectories, namely the European Alien Species Narratives (Eur-ASNs).We compared the Eur-ASNs with their previously published global counterparts (Global-ASNs), assessing changes in 26 scenario variables. This assessment showed a high consistency between global and European scenarios in the logic and assumptions of the scenario variables. However, several discrepancies in scenario variable trends were detected that could be attributed to scale differences. This suggests that the workflow is able to capture scale-dependent differences across scenarios.We also compared the Global- and Eur-ASNs with the widely used Global and European Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), a set of scenarios developed in the context of climate change to capture different future socio-economic trends. Our comparison showed considerable divergences in the scenario space occupied by the different scenarios, with overall larger differences between the ASNs and SSPs than across scales (global vs. European) within the scenario initiatives.Given the differences between the ASNs and SSPs, it seems that the SSPs do not adequately capture the scenario space relevant to understanding the complex future of biological invasions. This underlines the importance of developing independent, but complementary, scenarios focused on biological invasions. The downscaling workflow we presented and implemented here provides a tool to develop such scenarios across different regions and contexts. This is a major step towards an improved understanding of all major drivers of global change including biological invasions.

Future dynamics of biological invasions are highly uncertain because they depend on multiple environmental, societal and socio-economic drivers. We adopted a qualitative scenario approach to explore the future of invasive alien species (IAS) in Europe and created an overall strategy for their management that considers different plausible future developments. The scenarios and strategy were developed during two online workshops with a multidisciplinary team of experts. First, we downscaled four global scenarios of biological invasions to the European level. Second, we developed a management strategy structured into 19 goals that cover a broad array of IAS-related topics (i.e. policy, research, public awareness and biosecurity), and provided solutions for achieving these goals considering the European scenarios. Third, we identified four interrelated recommendations around which any long-term strategy for managing IAS in Europe can be structured: (i) a European biosecurity regime, (ii) a dedicated communication strategy, (iii) data standardization and management tools, and (iv) a monitoring and assessment system. Finally, we identified the feasibility of the IAS management strategy, finding strong differences among the four scenarios. High levels of technological development, public environmental awareness, and effectiveness of IAS policies facilitated the implementation of the overall management strategy. Together, our results indicate that it is time for a new management of biological invasions in Europe based on a more integrative perspective across sectors and countries to be better prepared for future challenges.

Human activity leading to both species introductions and extinctions is widely known to influence diversity patterns on local and regional scales. Yet, it is largely unknown whether the intensity of this activity is enough to affect the configuration of biodiversity at broader levels of spatial organization. Zoogeographical regions, or zooregions, are surfaces of the Earth defined by characteristic pools of species, which reflect ecological, historical, and evolutionary processes acting over millions of years. Consequently, it is widely assumed that zooregions are robust and unlikely to change on a human timescale. Here, however, we show that human-mediated introductions and extinctions can indeed reconfigure the currently recognized zooregions of amphibians, mammals, and birds. In particular, introductions homogenize the African and Eurasian zooregions in mammals; reshape boundaries with the reallocation of Oceania to the New World zooregion in amphibians; and divide bird zooregions by increasing biotic heterogeneity. Furthermore, the combined effect of amphibian introductions and extinctions has the potential to divide two zooregions largely representing the Old and the New World. Interestingly, the robustness of zooregions against changes in species composition may largely explain such zoogeographical changes. Altogether, our results demonstrate that human activities can erode the higher-level organization of biodiversity formed over millions of years. Comparable reconfigurations have previously been detectable in Earth’s history only after glaciations and mass extinction events, highlighting the profound and far-reaching impact of ongoing human activity and the need to protect the uniqueness of biotic assemblages from the effects of future species introductions and extinctions.