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Bee species worldwide are facing a future of further land-use change and intensification. Populations of closely-related species with similar ecological characteristics are likely to respond similarly to such pressures. Such phylogenetic signal in species’ responses could undermine the stability of pollination services in agricultural and natural systems. We use abundance data from a global compilation of bee assemblages in different land uses to assess the sensitivity of 573 bee species to agricultural expansion, intensification and urbanization; and combine the results with the Bee Tree of Life to assess phylogenetic signal. In addition, we assess whether variation in species’ sensitivity to land-use change is better explained by phylogenetic or available functional trait differences. Bee species show strong phylogenetic signal in sensitivity to agricultural land expansion but only a weak signal in sensitivity to agricultural intensification and urbanisation. Sensitivities were usually best explained by a combination of functional and phylogenetic distances. This finding suggests that the commonly-recorded traits, despite being meaningful as functional response traits, do not capture all important determinants of bee species’ vulnerability or resistance. However, it also suggests that model-based predictions of the sensitivity of poorly known species may be sufficient to help guide conservation efforts.

Body size is an integral functional trait that underlies pollination-related ecological processes, yet it is often impractical to measure directly. Allometric scaling laws have been used to overcome this problem. However, most existing models rely upon small sample sizes, geographically restricted sampling and have limited applicability for non-bee taxa. Predictive allometric models that consider biogeography, phylogenetic relatedness and intraspecific variation are urgently required to ensure greater accuracy.Here, we measured body size, as dry weight, and intertegular distance (ITD) of 391 bee species (4035 specimens) and 103 hoverfly species (399 specimens) across four biogeographic regions: Australia, Europe, North America and South America. We updated existing models within a Bayesian mixed-model framework to test the power of ITD to predict interspecific variation in pollinator dry weight in interaction with different co-variates: phylogeny or taxonomy, sexual dimorphism and biogeographic region. In addition, we used ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to assess intraspecific dry weight – ITD relationships for 10 bee and five hoverfly species.Including co-variates led to more robust interspecific body size predictions for both bees (BayesianR2: 0.946; ΔR20.047) and hoverflies (BayesianR2: 0.821; ΔR20.058) relative to models with ITD alone. In contrast, at the intraspecific level, our results demonstrate that ITD is an inconsistent predictor of body size for bees (R2: 0.02 – 0.66) and hoverflies (R2: −0.11 – 0.44).Therefore, predictive allometry is more suitable for interspecific comparative analyses than assessing intraspecific variation. Collectively, these models form the basis of the dynamicRpackage, ‘pollimetry’, which provides a comprehensive resource for allometric research concerning insect pollinators worldwide.