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Soil carbon stored in high-latitude permafrost landscapes is threatened by warming, and could contribute significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and hydrosphere as permafrost thaws. Permafrost disturbances, especially active layer detachments and retrogressive thaw slumps, have increased in frequency and magnitude across the Fosheim Peninsula, Ellesmere Island, Canada. To determine the effects of retrogressive thaw slumps on net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 in high Arctic tundra, we used two eddy covariance (EC) tower systems to simultaneously and continuously measure CO2 fluxes from a disturbed site and the surrounding undisturbed tundra. During the 32-day measurement period in the 2014 growing season the undisturbed tundra was a small net sink (NEE = −0.12 g C m-2 d-1); however, the disturbed terrain of the retrogressive thaw slump was a net source (NEE = +0.39 g C m-2 d-1). Over the measurement period, the undisturbed tundra sequestered 3.84 g C m-2, while the disturbed tundra released 12.48 g C m-2. Before full leaf out in early July, the undisturbed tundra was a small source of CO2, but shifted to a sink for the remainder of the sampling season (July), whereas the disturbed tundra remained a source of CO2 throughout the season. A static chamber system was also used to measure fluxes in the footprints of the two towers, in both disturbed and undisturbed tundra, and fluxes were partitioned into ecosystem respiration (Re) and gross primary production (GPP). Average GPP and Re found in disturbed tundra were smaller (+0.41 μmol m-2 s-1 and +0.50 μmol m-2 s-1, respectively) than those found in undisturbed tundra (+1.21 μmol m-2 s-1 and +1.00 μmol m-2 s-1, respectively). Our measurements indicated clearly that the permafrost disturbance changed the high Arctic tundra system from a sink to a source for CO2 during the growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has accelerated the formation of permafrost thaw ponds in several subarctic and arctic regions. These ponds are net heterotrophic as evidenced by their greenhouse gas (GHG) supersaturation levels (CO2 and CH4), and generally receive large terrestrial carbon inputs from the thawing and eroding permafrost. We measured seasonal and vertical variations in the concentration and type of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in five subarctic thaw (thermokarst) ponds in northern Quebec, and explored how environmental gradients influenced heterotrophic and phototrophic biomass and productivity. Late winter DOM had low aromaticity indicating reduced inputs of terres trial carbon, while the high concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) suggests that some production of non-chromophoric dissolved compounds by the microbial food web took place under the ice cover. Summer DOM had a strong terrestrial signature, but was also characterized with significant inputs of algal-derived carbon, especially at the pond surface. During late winter, bacterial production was low (maximum of 0.8mgCm-3 d-1) and was largely based on free-living bacterioplankton (58%). Bacterial production in summer was high (up to 58mgCm3 d1), dominated by particleattached bacteria (67%), and strongly correlated to the amount of terrestrial carbon. Primary production was restricted to summer surface waters due to strong light limitation deeper in the water column or in winter. The phototrophic biomass was equal to the heterotrophic biomass, but as the algae were mostly composed of mixotrophic species, most probably they used bacteria rather than solar energy in such shaded ponds. According to the δ13C analyses, non-algal carbon supported 51% of winter and 37% of summer biomass of the phantom midge larvae, Chaoborus sp., that are at the top of the trophic chain. Our results point to a strong heterotrophic energy pathway 25 in these thaw pond ecosystems, where bacterioplankton dominates the production of new carbon in both summer and winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the vegetation in the Arctic changes, tundra ecosystems along the southern border of the Arctic are becoming greener and gradually giving way to boreal ecosystems. This change is affecting local populations, wildlife, energy exchange processes between environmental compartments, and the carbon cycle. To understand the progression and the implications of this change in vegetation, satellite measurements and surface models can be employed. However, in situ observational data are required to validate these measurements and models. This paper presents observational data from two nearby sites in the forest–tundra ecotone in the Tasiapik Valley near Umiujaq in Northern Quebec, Canada. One site is on a mixture of lichen and shrub tundra. The associated data set comprises 9 years of meteorological, soil and snow data as well as 3 years of eddy covariance data. The other site, 850 m away, features vegetation consisting mostly of tall shrubs and black spruce. For that location, 6 years of meteorological, soil and snow data are available. In addition to the data from the automated stations, profiles of snow density and specific surface area were collected during field campaigns. The data are available at 10.1594/PANGAEA.964743 (Domine et al., 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) play an important role in the global GHG budget. However, these GHG fluxes are rarely studied simultaneously, and our understanding of the conditions controlling them across spatial gradients is limited. Here, we explore the magnitudes and drivers of GHG fluxes across fine-scale terrestrial gradients during the peak growing season (July) in sub-Arctic Finland. We measured chamber-derived GHG fluxes and soil temperature, soil moisture, soil organic carbon and nitrogen stocks, soil pH, soil carbon-to-nitrogen (C/N) ratio, soil dissolved organic carbon content, vascular plant biomass, and vegetation type from 101 plots scattered across a heterogeneous tundra landscape (5 km 2). We used these field data together with high-resolution remote sensing data to develop machine learning models for predicting (i.e., upscaling) daytime GHG fluxes across the landscape at 2 m resolution. Our results show that this region was on average a daytime net GHG sink during the growing season. Although our results suggest that this sink was driven by CO 2 uptake, it also revealed small but widespread CH 4 uptake in upland vegetation types, almost surpassing the high wetland CH 4 emissions at the landscape scale. Average N 2 O fluxes were negligible. CO 2 fluxes were controlled primarily by annual average soil temperature and biomass (both increase net sink) and vegetation type, CH 4 fluxes by soil moisture (increases net emissions) and vegetation type, and N 2 O fluxes by soil C/N (lower C/N increases net source). These results demonstrate the potential of high spatial resolution modeling of GHG fluxes in the Arctic. They also reveal the dominant role of CO 2 fluxes across the tundra landscape but suggest that CH 4 uptake in dry upland soils might play a significant role in the regional GHG budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Warming of the Arctic due to climate change means the Arctic Ocean is now free from ice for longer, as sea ice melts earlier and refreezes later. Yet, it remains unclear how this extended ice-free period will impact carbon dioxide (CO 2) fluxes due to scarcity of surface ocean CO 2 measurements. Baseline measurements are urgently needed to understand spatial and temporal air–sea CO 2 flux variability in the changing Arctic Ocean. There is also uncertainty as to whether the previous basin-wide surveys are representative of the many smaller bays and inlets that make up the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). By using a research vessel that is based in the remote Inuit community of Ikaluqtuutiak (Cambridge Bay, Nunavut), we have been able to reliably survey p CO 2 shortly after ice melt and access previously unsampled bays and inlets in the nearby region. Here we present 4 years of consecutive summertime p CO 2 measurements collected in the Kitikmeot Sea in the southern CAA. Overall, we found that this region is a sink for atmospheric CO 2 in August (average of all calculated fluxes over the four cruises was - 4.64 mmol m -2 d -1), but the magnitude of this sink varies substantially between years and locations (average calculated fluxes of + 3.58, - 2.96, - 16.79 and - 0.57 mmol m -2 d -1 during the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 cruises, respectively). Surface ocean p CO 2 varied by up to 156 µ atm between years, highlighting the importance of repeat observations in this region, as this high interannual variability would not have been captured by sparse and infrequent measurements. We find that the surface ocean p CO 2 value at the time of ice melt is extremely important in constraining the magnitude of the air–sea CO 2 flux throughout the ice-free season. However, further constraining the air–sea CO 2 flux in the Kitikmeot Sea will require a better understanding of how p CO 2 changes outside of the summer season. Surface ocean p CO 2 measurements made in small bays and inlets of the Kitikmeot Sea were ∼ 20–40 µ atm lower than in the main channels. Surface ocean p CO 2 measurements made close in time to ice breakup (i.e. within 2 weeks) were ∼ 50 µ atm lower than measurements made > 4 weeks after breakup. As previous basin-wide surveys of the CAA have focused on the deep shipping channels and rarely measure close to the ice breakup date, we hypothesize that there may be an observational bias in previous studies, leading to an underestimate of the CO 2 sink in the CAA. These high-resolution measurements constitute an important new baseline for gaining a better understanding of the role this region plays in the uptake of atmospheric CO 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A more accurate characterization of the sources and sinks of methane (CH 4) and carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the vulnerable Arctic environment is required to better predict climate change. A large-scale aircraft campaign took place in September 2020 focusing on the Siberian Arctic coast. CH 4 and CO 2 were measured in situ during the campaign and form the core of this study. Measured ozone (O 3) and carbon monoxide (CO) are used here as tracers. Median CH 4 mixing ratios are fairly higher than the monthly mean hemispheric reference (Mauna Loa, Hawaii, US) with 1890–1969 ppb vs. 1887 ppb respectively, while CO 2 mixing ratios from all flights are lower (408.09–411.50 ppm vs. 411.52 ppm). We also report on three case studies. Our analysis suggests that during the campaign the European part of Russia's Arctic and western Siberia were subject to long-range transport of polluted air masses, while the east was mainly under the influence of local emissions of greenhouse gases. The relative contributions of the main anthropogenic and natural sources of CH 4 are simulated using the Lagrangian model FLEXPART in order to identify dominant sources in the boundary layer and in the free troposphere. On western terrestrial flights, air mass composition is influenced by emissions from wetlands and anthropogenic activities (waste management, fossil fuel industry, and to a lesser extent the agricultural sector), while in the east, emissions are dominated by freshwater, wetlands, and the oceans, with a likely contribution from anthropogenic sources related to fossil fuels. Our results highlight the importance of the contributions from freshwater and ocean emissions. Considering the large uncertainties associated with them, our study suggests that the emissions from these aquatic sources should receive more attention in Siberia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continued warming of the Arctic could release vast stores of carbon into the atmosphere from high-latitude ecosystems, especially from thawing permafrost. Increasing uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by vegetation during longer growing seasons may partially offset such release of carbon. However, evidence of significant net annual release of carbon from site-level observations and model simulations across tundra ecosystems has been inconclusive. To address this knowledge gap, we combined top-down observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration enhancements from aircraft and a tall tower, which integrate ecosystem exchange over large regions, with bottom-up observed CO2 fluxes from tundra environments and found that the Alaska North Slope is not a consistent net source nor net sink of CO2 to the atmosphere (ranging from -6 to +6 TgCyr-1 for 2012–2017). Our analysis suggests that significant biogenic CO2 fluxes from unfrozen terrestrial soils, and likely inland waters, during the early cold season (September–December) are major factors in determining the net annual carbon balance of the North Slope, implying strong sensitivity to the rapidly warming freeze-up period. At the regional level, we find no evidence of the previously reported large late-cold-season (January–April) CO2 emissions to the atmosphere during the study period. Despite the importance of the cold-season CO2 emissions to the annual total, the interannual variability in the net CO2 flux is driven by the variability in growing season fluxes. During the growing season, the regional net CO2 flux is also highly sensitive to the distribution of tundra vegetation types throughout the North Slope. This study shows that quantification and characterization of year-round CO2 fluxes from the heterogeneous terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in the Arctic using both site-level and atmospheric observations are important to accurately project the Earth system response to future warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We measured CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes using chambers and eddy covariance (only CO 2) from a moist moss tundra in Svalbard. The average net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during the summer (9 June–31 August) was negative (sink), with - 0.139 ± 0.032 µ mol m -2 s -1 corresponding to - 11.8 g C m -2 for the whole summer. The cumulated NEE over the whole growing season (day no. 160 to 284) was - 2.5 g C m -2. The CH 4 flux during the summer period showed a large spatial and temporal variability. The mean value of all 214 samples was 0.000511 ± 0.000315 µ mol m -2 s -1 , which corresponds to a growing season estimate of 0.04 to 0.16 g CH 4 m -2. Thus, we find that this moss tundra ecosystem is closely in balance with the atmosphere during the growing season when regarding exchanges of CO 2 and CH 4. The sink of CO 2 and the source of CH 4 are small in comparison with other tundra ecosystems in the high Arctic. Air temperature, soil moisture and the greenness index contributed significantly to explaining the variation in ecosystem respiration (Reco), while active layer depth, soil moisture and the greenness index were the variables that best explained CH 4 emissions. An estimate of temperature sensitivity of Reco and gross primary productivity (GPP) showed that the sensitivity is slightly higher for GPP than for Reco in the interval 0–4.5 ∘ C; thereafter, the difference is small up to about 6 ∘ C and then begins to rise rapidly for Reco. The consequence of this, for a small increase in air temperature of 1 ∘ (all other variables assumed unchanged), was that the respiration increased more than photosynthesis turning the small sink into a small source (4.5 g C m -2) during the growing season. Thus, we cannot rule out that the reason why the moss tundra is close to balance today is an effect of the warming that has already taken place in Svalbard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The warming of the Arctic is affecting the carbon cycle of tundra ecosystems. Most research on carbon fluxes from Arctic tundra ecosystems has focused on abiotic environmental controls (e.g., temperature, rainfall, or radiation). However, Arctic tundra vegetation, and therefore the carbon balance of these ecosystems, can be substantially impacted by herbivory. In this study we tested how vegetation consumption by brown lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus) can impact carbon exchange of a wet-sedge tundra ecosystem near Utqiaġvik, Alaska during the summer and the recovery of vegetation during the following summer. We placed brown lemmings in individual enclosure plots and tested the impact of lemmings' herbivory on carbon dioxide (CO 2) fluxes, methane (CH 4) fluxes, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) immediately after lemming removal and during the following growing season. During the first summer of the experiment, lemmings' herbivory reduced plant biomass (as shown by the decrease in the NDVI) and decreased net CO 2 uptake while not significantly impacting CH 4 emissions. CH 4 emissions were likely not significantly affected due to CH 4 being produced deeper in the soil and escaping from the stem bases of the vascular plants. The summer following the lemming treatments, NDVI and net CO 2 fluxes returned to magnitudes similar to those observed before the start of the experiment, suggesting a complete recovery of the vegetation and a transitory nature of the impact of lemming herbivory. Overall, lemming herbivory has short-term but substantial effects on carbon sequestration by vegetation and might contribute to the considerable interannual variability in CO 2 fluxes from tundra ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have estimated global air–sea CO2 fluxes (fgCO2) from the open ocean to coastal seas. Fluxes and associated uncertainty are computed from an ensemble-based reconstruction of CO2 sea surface partial pressure (pCO2) maps trained with gridded data from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas v2020 database. The ensemble mean (which is the best estimate provided by the approach) fits independent data well, and a broad agreement between the spatial distribution of model–data differences and the ensemble standard deviation (which is our model uncertainty estimate) is seen. Ensemble-based uncertainty estimates are denoted by ±1σ. The space–time-varying uncertainty fields identify oceanic regions where improvements in data reconstruction and extensions of the observational network are needed. Poor reconstructions of pCO2 are primarily found over the coasts and/or in regions with sparse observations, while fgCO2 estimates with the largest uncertainty are observed over the open Southern Ocean (44 ∘ S southward), the subpolar regions, the Indian Ocean gyre, and upwelling systems. Our estimate of the global net sink for the period 1985–2019 is 1.643±0.125 PgC yr -1 including 0.150±0.010 PgC yr -1 for the coastal net sink. Among the ocean basins, the Subtropical Pacific (18–49 ∘ N) and the Subpolar Atlantic (49–76 ∘ N) appear to be the strongest CO2 sinks for the open ocean and the coastal ocean, respectively. Based on mean flux density per unit area, the most intense CO2 drawdown is, however, observed over the Arctic (76 ∘ N poleward) followed by the Subpolar Atlantic and Subtropical Pacific for both open-ocean and coastal sectors. Reconstruction results also show significant changes in the global annual integral of all open- and coastal-ocean CO2 fluxes with a growth rate of +0.062±0.006 PgC yr -2 and a temporal standard deviation of 0.526±0.022 PgC yr -1 over the 35-year period. The link between the large interannual to multi-year variations of the global net sink and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate variability is reconfirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19 % of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3 %) and eddy covariance (78 %) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June–August; 32 %), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September–October; 25 %), winter (December–February; 18 %), and spring (March–May; 25 %). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget. ABCflux is openly and freely available online (Virkkala et al., 2021b, 10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1934). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The WPL (Webb, Pearman, and Leuning) correction is fully accepted to correct trace gas fluxes like CO 2 for density fluctuations due to water vapour and temperature fluctuations for open-path gas analysers. It is known that this additive correction can be on the order of magnitude of the actual flux. However, this is hardly ever included in the analysis of data quality. An example from the Arctic shows the problems, because the size of the correction is a multiple of the actual flux. As a general result, we examined and tabulated the magnitude of the WPL correction for carbon dioxide flux as a function of sensible and latent heat flux. Furthermore, we propose a parameter to better estimate possible deficits in data quality and recommend integrating the quality flag derived with this parameter into the general study of small carbon dioxide fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the Arctic is leading to shifts in vegetation communities, permafrost degradation and alteration of tundra surface–atmosphere energy and carbon (C) fluxes, among other changes. However, year-round C and energy flux measurements at high-latitude sites remain rare. This poses a challenge for evaluating the impacts of climate change on Arctic tundra ecosystems and for developing and evaluating process-based models, which may be used to predict regional and global energy and C feedbacks to the climate system. Our study used 14 years of seasonal eddy covariance (EC) measurements of carbon dioxide (CO 2), water and energy fluxes, and winter soil chamber CO 2 flux measurements at a dwarf-shrub tundra site underlain by continuous permafrost in Canada's Southern Arctic ecozone to evaluate the incorporation of shrub plant functional types (PFTs) in the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC), the land surface component of the Canadian Earth System Model. In addition to new PFTs, a modification of the efficiency with which water evaporates from the ground surface was applied. This modification addressed a high ground evaporation bias that reduced model performance when soils became very dry, limited heat flow into the ground, and reduced plant productivity through water stress effects. Compared to the grass and tree PFTs previously used by CLASSIC to represent the vegetation in Arctic permafrost-affected regions, simulations with the new shrub PFTs better capture the physical and biogeochemical impact of shrubs on the magnitude and seasonality of energy and CO 2 fluxes at the dwarf-shrub tundra evaluation site. The revised model, however, tends to overestimate gross primary productivity, particularly in spring, and overestimated late-winter CO 2 emissions. On average, annual net ecosystem CO 2 exchange was positive for all simulations, suggesting this site was a net CO 2 source of 18 ± 4 g C m -2 yr -1 using shrub PFTs, 15 ± 6 g C m -2 yr -1 using grass PFTs, and 25 ± 5 g C m -2 yr -1 using tree PFTs. These results highlight the importance of using appropriate PFTs in process-based models to simulate current and future Arctic surface–atmosphere interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic coastal ecosystems are rapidly changing due to climate warming. This makes modeling their productivity crucially important to better understand future changes. System primary production in these systems is highest during the pronounced spring bloom, typically dominated by diatoms. Eventually the spring blooms terminate due to silicon or nitrogen limitation. Bacteria can play an important role for extending bloom duration and total CO 2 fixation through ammonium regeneration. Current ecosystem models often simplify the effects of nutrient co-limitations on algal physiology and cellular ratios and simplify nutrient regeneration. These simplifications may lead to underestimations of primary production. Detailed biochemistry- and cell-based models can represent these dynamics but are difficult to tune in the environment. We performed a cultivation experiment that showed typical spring bloom dynamics, such as extended algal growth via bacterial ammonium remineralization, reduced algal growth and inhibited chlorophyll synthesis under silicate limitation, and gradually reduced nitrogen assimilation and chlorophyll synthesis under nitrogen limitation. We developed a simplified dynamic model to represent these processes. Overall, model complexity in terms of the number of parameters is comparable to the phytoplankton growth and nutrient biogeochemistry formulations in common ecosystem models used in the Arctic while improving the representation of nutrient-co-limitation-related processes. Such model enhancements that now incorporate increased nutrient inputs and higher mineralization rates in a warmer climate will improve future predictions in this vulnerable system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the response of the high-latitude carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in idealized climate change scenarios. To this end we use an adapted version of JSBACH – the land surface component of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) – that accounts for the organic matter stored in the permafrost-affected soils of the high northern latitudes. The model is run under different climate scenarios that assume an increase in GHG concentrations, based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5 and the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, which peaks in the years 2025, 2050, 2075 or 2100, respectively. The peaks are followed by a decrease in atmospheric GHGs that returns the concentrations to the levels at the beginning of the 21st century, reversing the imposed climate change. We show that the soil CO2 emissions exhibit an almost linear dependence on the global mean surface temperatures that are simulated for the different climate scenarios. Here, each degree of warming increases the fluxes by, very roughly, 50 % of their initial value, while each degree of cooling decreases them correspondingly. However, the linear dependence does not mean that the processes governing the soil CO2 emissions are fully reversible on short timescales but rather that two strongly hysteretic factors offset each other – namely the net primary productivity and the availability of formerly frozen soil organic matter. In contrast, the soil methane emissions show a less pronounced increase with rising temperatures, and they are consistently lower after the peak in the GHG concentrations than prior to it. Here, the net fluxes could even become negative, and we find that methane emissions will play only a minor role in the northern high-latitude contribution to global warming, even when considering the high global warming potential of the gas. Finally, we find that at a global mean temperature of roughly 1.75 K (±0.5 K) above pre-industrial levels the high-latitude ecosystem turns from a CO2 sink into a source of atmospheric carbon, with the net fluxes into the atmosphere increasing substantially with rising atmospheric GHG concentrations. This is very different from scenario simulations with the standard version of the MPI-ESM, in which the region continues to take up atmospheric CO2 throughout the entire 21st century, confirming that the omission of permafrost-related processes and the organic matter stored in the frozen soils leads to a fundamental misrepresentation of the carbon dynamics in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid warming of Arctic ecosystems exposes soil organic matter (SOM) to accelerated microbial decomposition, potentially leading to increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) that have a positive feedback on global warming. Current estimates of the magnitude and form of carbon emissions from Earth system models include significant uncertainties, partially due to the oversimplified representation of geochemical constraints on microbial decomposition. Here, we coupled modeling principles developed in different disciplines, including a thermodynamically based microbial growth model for methanogenesis and iron reduction, a pool-based model to represent upstream carbon transformations, and a humic ion-binding model for dynamic pH simulation to build a more versatile carbon decomposition model framework that can be applied to soils under varying redox conditions. This new model framework was parameterized and validated using synthesized anaerobic incubation data from permafrost-affected soils along a gradient of fine-scale thermal and hydrological variabilities across Arctic polygonal tundra. The model accurately simulated anaerobic CO2 production and its temperature sensitivity using data on labile carbon pools and fermentation rates as model constraints. CH4 production is strongly influenced by water content, pH, methanogen biomass, and presence of competing electron acceptors, resulting in high variability in its temperature sensitivity. This work provides new insights into the interactions of SOM pools, temperature increase, soil geochemical feedbacks, and resulting CO2 and CH4 production. The proposed anaerobic carbon decomposition framework presented here builds a mechanistic link between soil geochemistry and carbon mineralization, making it applicable over a wide range of soils under different environmental settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]