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Extreme winter cold temperatures in Europe have huge societal impacts on society. Being able to simulate worst-case scenarios of such events for present and future climates is hence crucial for short and long-term adaptation. In this paper, we are interested in low-probability cold events, whose probability is deemed to decrease with climate change. Large ensembles of simulations allow to better analyse the mechanisms and characteristics of such events, but can require a lot of computational resources. Rather than simulating very large ensembles of normal climate trajectories, rare event algorithms allow sampling the tail of distributions more efficiently. Such algorithms have been applied to simulate extreme heat waves. They have emphasized the role of atmospheric circulation in such extremes. The goal of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of extreme cold spells simulated by a rare event algorithm. We focus first on winter cold temperatures that have occurred in France from 1950 to 2021. We investigate winter mean temperatures in France (December, January, and February) and identify a record-shattering event in 1963. We find that, although the frequency of extreme cold spells decreases with time, their intensity is stationary. We applied a stochastic weather generator approach with importance sampling, to simulate the coldest winters that could occur in a factual and counterfactual climate. We hence simulated ensembles of worst winter cold spells that are consistent with reanalyses. We find that a few simulations reach colder temperatures than the record-shattering event of 1963. The atmospheric circulation that prevails during those events is analyzed and compared to the observed circulation during the record-breaking events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last 25 years, CO-PDD (Cézeaux-Aulnat-Opme-puy de Dôme) has evolved to become a full instrumented platform for atmospheric research. It has received credentials as a national observing platform in France and is internationally recognized as a global station in the GAW (Global Atmosphere Watch) network. It is a reference site of European and national research infrastructures ACTRIS (Aerosol Cloud and Trace gases Research Infrastructure) and ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observing System). The site located on top of the puy de Dôme mountain (1465 m a.s.l.) is completed by additional sites located at lower altitudes and adding the vertical dimension to the atmospheric observations: Opme (660 m a.s.l.), Cézeaux (410 m), and Aulnat (330 m). The integration of different sites offers a unique combination of in situ and remote sensing measurements capturing and documenting the variability of particulate and gaseous atmospheric composition, but also the optical, biochemical, and physical properties of aerosol particles, clouds, and precipitations. Given its location far away from any major emission sources, its altitude, and the mountain orography, the puy de Dôme station is ideally located to sample different air masses in the boundary layer or in the free troposphere depending on time of day and seasons. It is also an ideal place to study cloud properties with frequent presence of clouds at the top in fall and winter. As a result of the natural conditions prevailing at the site and of the very exhaustive instrumental deployment, scientific studies at the puy de Dôme strongly contribute to improving knowledge in atmospheric sciences, including the characterization of trends and variability, the understanding of complex and interconnected processes (microphysical, chemical, biological, chemical and dynamical), and the provision of reference information for climate/chemistry models. In this context, CO-PDD is a pilot site to conduct instrumental development inside its wind tunnel for testing liquid and ice cloud probes in natural conditions, or in situ systems to collect aerosol and cloud. This paper reviews 25 years (1995–2020) of atmospheric observation at the station and related scientific research contributing to atmospheric and climate science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The French coast facing the Bay of Biscay (North-East Atlantic) is characterised by the presence of small macrotidal and turbid estuaries, including the Charente, which is geographically located between the two large estuaries of the Gironde and the Loire (south-west France). Multi-year, multi-site and high-frequency water quality surveys have shown that the Loire and, to a lesser extent, the Gironde suffer from summer hypoxia. These observations raised the question of the possible occurrence of hypoxia, particularly in one of these small estuaries, the Charente, which flows into the Bay of Marennes-Oléron, the first oyster-farming area in France. Unlike its two large neighbours, the Charente estuary is not continuously monitored, although it is subject to similar climatic changes and anthropogenic pressures, making it impossible to assess potential risks to the ecosystem. Here we present a first study of dissolved oxygen in the Charente estuary based on a combination of longitudinal studies along the estuary axis and instrumented sites to determine the intensity and spatial extent of deoxygenation. Temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity sensors were deployed at several sites during the summers of 2018, 2019 and 2020 to record temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen every 15 min. The high-frequency dataset is compared with a long-term low-frequency dataset (1975–2022; 8–12 measurements per year) to determine whether or not there is a deterioration in the oxygenation of the Charente estuary. The high-frequency dataset shows a high variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) with a clear influence of the tidal cycle. During summer, DO concentrations are often below 5 mgL-1 and sometimes even below 2 mgL-1 , indicating the presence of a summer estuarine oxygen minimum zone with an extension along the estuarine axis of about 20–25 km. Temperature is the main factor controlling DO in the Charente estuary, which limits preventive management strategies and, in the context of global warming, raises questions about the long-term suitability of estuarine conditions for the needs of the biological communities, particularly migratory fish. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2018, TROPOMI on-board Sentinel-5P provides unprecedented images of NO2 tropospheric columns at a relatively high spatial resolution with a daily revisit. This study aims at assessing the potential of the TROPOMI-PAL data to estimate the national to urban NO x emissions in France from 2019 to 2021, using the variational mode of the recent Community Inversion Framework coupled to the CHIMERE regional transport model at a spatial resolution of 10×10 km2. The seasonal to inter-annual variations of the NO x French emissions are analyzed. A specific attention is paid to the current capability to quantify strong anomalies in the NO x emissions at intra-annual scales such as the ones due to the COVID-19 pandemic, by using TROPOMI NO2 observations. The inversions lead to a decrease of the average emissions over 2019–2021 compared to 2016 of -3 % at national scale, which is lower than the decrease of -14 % between these years in the estimates of the French Technical Center for Air Pollution and Climate Change (CITEPA). This may be linked especially to the limited level of constraint brought by the TROPOMI data, due to the observation coverage and the ratio between the current level of errors in the observation and the chemistry-transport model, and the NO2 signal from the French anthropogenic sources. Focusing on local analysis and selecting the days during which the TROPOMI coverage is good over a specific local source, we compute the reductions in the NO x anthropogenic emission estimates by the inversions from spring 2019 to spring 2020. These reductions are particularly pronounced for the largest French urban areas (e.g., -26 % from April 2019 to April 2020 in the Paris urban area) and along major roadways, consistently with the reduction in the intensity of vehicle traffic reported during the lockdown period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate downscaling technique, since two techniques with comparable skills at reproducing reference river flows give very different estimates of future flows, and thus of future local losses. The main conclusion is thus that estimating future flood losses is still out of reach, especially at local scale, but that future national-scale losses may change significantly over this century, requiring policy changes in terms of risk management and land-use planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed investigations of the chemical and microphysical properties of atmospheric aerosol particles were performed at the puy-de-Dôme (pdD) research station (1465 m) in autumn (September and October 2008), winter (February and March 2009), and summer (June 2010) using a compact Time-of-Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (cToFAMS). Over the three campaigns, the average mass concentrations of the non-refractory submicron particles ranged from 10 µgm-3 up to 27 µgm-3. Highest nitrate and ammonium mass concentrations were measured during the winter and during periods when marine modified airmasses were arriving at the site, whereas highest concentrations of organic particles were measured during the summer and during periods when continental airmasses arrived at the site. The measurements reported in this paper show that atmospheric particle composition is strongly influenced by both the season and the origin of the airmass. The total organic mass spectra were analysed using positive matrix factorisation to separate individual organic components contributing to the overall organic particle mass concentrations. These organic components include a low volatility oxygenated organic aerosol particle (LV-OOA) and a semi-volatile organic aerosol particle (SV-OOA). Correlations of the LV-OOA components with fragments of m/z 60 and m/z 73 (mass spectral markers of wood burning) during the winter campaign suggest that wintertime LV-OOA are related to aged biomass burning emissions, whereas organic aerosol particles measured during the summer are likely linked to biogenic sources. Equivalent potential temperature calculations, gas-phase, and LIDAR measurements define whether the research site is in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) or in the free troposphere (FT)/residual layer (RL). We observe that SV-OOA and nitrate particles are associated with air masses arriving from the PBL where as particle composition measured from RL/FT airmasses contain high mass fractions of sulphate and LV-OOA. This study provides unique insights into the effects of season and airmass variability on regional aerosol particles measured at an elevated site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims at estimating flow duration curves (FDC) at ungauged sites in France and quantifying the associated uncertainties using a large dataset of 1080 FDCs. The interpolation procedure focuses here on 15 percentiles standardised by the mean annual flow, which is assumed to be known at each site. In particular, this paper discusses the impact of different catchment grouping procedures on the estimation of percentiles by regional regression models. In a first step, five parsimonious FDC parametric models are tested to approximate FDCs at gauged sites. The results show that the model based on the expansion of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) outperforms the other tested models. In the EOF model, each FDC is interpreted as a linear combination of regional amplitude functions with spatially variable weighting factors corresponding to the parameters of the model. In this approach, only one amplitude function is required to obtain a satisfactory fit with most of the observed curves. Thus, the considered model requires only two parameters to be applicable at ungauged locations. Secondly, homogeneous regions are derived according to hydrological response, on the one hand, and geological, climatic and topographic characteristics on the other hand. Hydrological similarity is assessed through two simple indicators: the concavity index (IC) representing the shape of the dimensionless FDC and the seasonality ratio (SR), which is the ratio of summer and winter median flows. These variables are used as homogeneity criteria in three different methods for grouping catchments: (i) according to an a priori classification of French Hydro-EcoRegions (HERs), (ii) by applying regression tree clustering and (iii) by using neighbourhoods obtained by canonical correlation analysis. Finally, considering all the data, and subsequently for each group obtained through the tested grouping techniques, we derive regression models between physiographic and/or climatic variables and the two parameters of the EOF model. Results on percentile estimation in cross validation show that a significant benefit is obtained by defining homogeneous regions before developing regressions, particularly when grouping methods make use of hydrogeological information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Particle number concentration and size distribution are important variables needed to constrain the role of atmospheric particles in the Earth radiation budget, both directly and indirectly through CCN activation. They are also linked to regulated variables such as particle mass (PM) and therefore of interest to air quality studies. However, data on their long-term variability are scarce, in particular at high altitudes. In this paper, we investigate the diurnal and seasonal variability of the aerosol total number concentration and size distribution at the puy de Dôme research station (France, 1465 m a.s.l.). We report a variability of aerosol particle total number concentration measured over a five-year (2003-2007) period for particles larger than 10 nm and aerosol size distributions between 10 and 500 nm over a two-year period (January 2006 to December 2007). Concentrations show a strong seasonality with maxima during summer and minima during winter. A diurnal variation is also observed with maxima between 12:00 and 18:00 UTC. At night (00:00-06:00 UTC), the median hourly total concentration varies from 600 to 800 cm-3 during winter and from 1700 to 2200 cm-3 during summer. During the day (08:00-18:00 UTC), the concentration is in the range of 700 to 1400 cm-3 during winter and of 2500 to 3500 cm-3 during summer. An averaged size distribution of particles (10- 500 nm) was calculated for each season. The total aerosol number concentrations are dominated by the Aitken mode integral concentrations, which drive most of the winter to summer total concentrations increase. The night to day increase in dominated by the nucleation mode integral number concentration. Because the site is located in the free troposphere only a fraction of the time, in particular at night and during the winter season, we have subsequently analyzed the variability for nighttime and free tropospheric (FT)/residual layer (RL) conditions only. We show that a seasonal variability is still observed for these FT/RL conditions. The FT/RL seasonal variation is due to both seasonal changes in the air mass origin from winter to summer and enhanced concentrations of particles in the residual layer/free troposphere in summer. The later observation can be explained by higher emissions intensity in the boundary layer, stronger exchanges between the boundary layer and the free troposphere as well as enhanced photochemical processes. Finally, aerosols mean size distributions are calculated for a given air mass type (marine/continental/regional) according to the season for the specific conditions of the residual layer/free troposphere. The seasonal variability in aerosol sources seems to be predominant over the continent compared to the seasonal variation of marine aerosol sources. These results are of regional relevance and can be used to constrain chemical-transport models over Western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop a new methodology to estimate past changes of growing season temperature at Fontainebleau (northern France). Northern France temperature fluctuations have been documented by homogenised instrumental temperature records (at most 140 year long) and by grape harvest dates (GHD) series, incorporated in some of the European-scale temperature reconstructions. We have produced here three new proxy records: δ18O and δ13C of latewood cellulose of living trees and timbers from Fontainebleau Forest and Castle, together with ring widths of the same samples. δ13C data appear to be influenced by tree and age effects; ring widths are not controlled by a single climate parameter. By contrast, δ18O and Burgundy GHD series exhibit strong links with Fontainebleau growing season maximum temperature. Each of these records can also be influenced by other factors such as vine growing practices, local insolation, or moisture availability. In order to reduce the influence of these potential biases, we have used a linear combination of the two records to reconstruct interannual fluctuations of Fontainebleau growing season temperature from 1596 to 2000. Over the instrumental period, the reconstruction is well correlated with the temperature data (R2=0.60). This reconstruction is associated with an uncertainty of ~1.1°C (1.5 standard deviation), and is expected to provide a reference series for the variability of growing season maxi- mum temperature in Western Europe. Spectral analyses conducted on the reconstruction clearly evidence (i) the interest of combining the two proxy records in order to improve the power spectrum of the reconstructed versus observed temperature, (ii) changes in the spectral properties over the time, with varying weights of periodicities ranging between ~6 and ~25 years. Available reconstructions of regional growing season temperature fluctuations get increasingly divergent at the interannual or decadal scale prior to 1800. Our reconstruction suggests a warm interval in the late 17th century, with the 1680s as warm as the 1940s, followed by a prolonged cool period from the 1690s to the 1850s culminating in the 1770s. The persistency of the late 20th century warming trend appears unprecedented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early April 2021 several days of harsh frost affected central Europe. This led to very severe damage in grapevine and fruit trees in France, in regions where young leaves had already unfolded due to unusually warm temperatures in the preceding month (March 2021). We analysed with observations and 172 climate model simulations how human-induced climate change affected this event over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that, without human-caused climate change, such temperatures in April or later in spring would have been even lower by 1.2 ∘ C (0.75 to 1.7 ∘ C). However, climate change also caused an earlier occurrence of bud burst that we characterized in this study by a growing degree day index value. This shift leaves young leaves exposed to more winter-like conditions with lower minimum temperatures and longer nights, an effect that overcompensates the warming effect. Extreme cold temperatures occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are now 2 ∘ C colder (0.5 to 3.3 ∘ C) than in preindustrial conditions, according to observations. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change with each of the five climate model ensembles used here simulating a cooling of growing-period annual temperature minima of 0.41 ∘ C (0.22 to 0.60 ∘ C) since preindustrial conditions. The 2021 growing-period frost event has become 50 % more likely (10 %–110 %). Models accurately simulate the observed warming in extreme lowest spring temperatures but underestimate the observed trends in growing-period frost intensities, a fact that yet remains to be explained. Model ensembles all simulate a further intensification of yearly minimum temperatures occurring in the growing period for future decades and a significant probability increase for such events of about 30 % (20 %–40 %) in a climate with global warming of 2 ∘ C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater levels (GWLs) very often fluctuate over a wide range of timescales (intra-annual, annual, multi-annual, and decadal). In many instances, aquifers act as low-pass filters, dampening the high-frequency variability and amplifying low-frequency variations (from multi-annual to decadal timescales) which basically originate from large-scale climate variability. Within the aim of better understanding and ultimately anticipating groundwater droughts and floods, it appears crucial to evaluate whether (and how much) the very high or very low GWLs are resulting from such low-frequency variability (LFV), which was the main objective of the study presented here. As an example, we focused on exceedance and non-exceedance of the 80 % and 20 % GWL percentiles respectively, in the Paris Basin aquifers over the 1976–2019 period. GWL time series were extracted from a database consisting of relatively undisturbed GWL time series regarding anthropogenic influence (water abstraction by either continuous or periodic pumping) over metropolitan France. Based on this dataset, our approach consisted in exploring the effect of GWL low-frequency components on threshold exceedance and non-exceedance by successively filtering out low-frequency components of GWL signals using maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT). Multi-annual (∼7 -year) and decadal (∼17 -year) variabilities were found to be the predominant LFVs in GWL signals, in accordance with previous studies in the northern France area. By filtering out these components (either independently or jointly), it is possible to (i) examine the proportion of high-level (HL) and low-level (LL) occurrences generated by these variabilities and (ii) estimate the contribution of each of these variabilities in explaining the occurrence of major historical events associated with well-recognized societal impacts. A typology of GWL variations in Paris Basin aquifers was first determined by quantifying the variance distribution across timescales. Four GWL variation types could be found according to the predominance of annual, multi-annual, or/and decadal variabilities in these signals: decadal-dominant (type iD), multi-annual- and decadal-dominant (type iMD), annual-dominant (type cA), and annual- and multi-annual-dominant (type cAM). We observed a clear dependence of high and low GWL on LFV for aquifers exhibiting these four GWL variation types. In addition, the respective contribution of multi-annual and decadal variabilities in the threshold exceedance varied according to the event. In numerous aquifers, it also appeared that the sensitivity to LFV was higher for LLs than HLs. A similar analysis was conducted on the only available long-term GWL time series which covered a hundred years. This allowed us to highlight the potential influence of multidecadal variability on HLs and LLs too. This study underlined the key role of LFV in the occurrence of HLs and LLs. Since LFV originates from large-scale stochastic climate variability as demonstrated in many previous studies in the Paris Basin or nearby regions, our results point out that (i) poor representation of LFV in general circulation model (GCM) outputs used afterwards for developing hydrological projections can result in strong uncertainty in the assessment of future groundwater extremes (GWEs), and (ii) potential changes in the amplitude of LFV, be they natural or induced by global climate change, may lead to substantial changes in the occurrence and severity of GWEs for the next decades. Finally, this study also stresses the fact that due to the stochastic nature of LFV, no deterministic prediction of future GWEs for the mid- or long-term horizons can be achieved, even though LFV may look periodic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on CMIP6 climate simulations, updated global and regional observations, and recently introduced statistical methods, we provide an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. Following the IPCC AR6 and recent global-scale studies, we combine model results with observations to constrain climate change at the regional scale. Over mainland France, the forced warming in 2020 with respect to 1900–1930 is assessed to be 1.66 [1.41 to 1.90] ∘ C, i.e., in the upper range of the CMIP6 estimates, and is almost entirely human-induced. A refined view of the seasonality of this past warming is provided through updated daily climate normals. Projected warming in response to an intermediate emission scenario is assessed to be 3.8 ∘ C (2.9 to 4.8 ∘ C) in 2100 and rises up to 6.7 [5.2 to 8.2] ∘ C in a very high emission scenario, i.e., substantially higher than in previous ensembles of global and regional simulations. Winter warming and summer warming are expected to be about 15 % lower than and 30 % higher than the annual mean warming, respectively, for all scenarios and time periods. This work highlights the importance of combining various lines of evidence, including model and observed data, to deliver the most reliable climate information. This refined regional assessment can feed adaptation planning for a range of activities and provides additional rationale for urgent climate action. Code is made available to facilitate replication over other areas or political entities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing air temperature in a changing climate will impact actual evaporation and have consequences for water resource management in energy-limited regions. In many hydrological models, evaporation is assessed using a preliminary computation of potential evaporation (PE), which represents the evaporative demand of the atmosphere. Therefore, in impact studies, the quantification of uncertainties related to PE estimation, which can arise from different sources, is crucial. Indeed, a myriad of PE formulations exist, and the uncertainties related to climate variables cascade into PE computation. To date, no consensus has emerged on the main source of uncertainty in the PE modeling chain for hydrological studies. In this study, we address this issue by setting up a multi-model and multi-scenario approach. We used seven different PE formulations and a set of 30 climate projections to calculate changes in PE. To estimate the uncertainties related to each step of the PE calculation process, namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, general circulation models (GCMs), regional climate models (RCMs) and PE formulations, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition was used. Results show that mean annual PE will increase across France by the end of the century (from +40 to +130 mm y -1). In ascending order, uncertainty contributions by the end of the century are explained by PE formulations (below 10 %), RCPs (above 20 %), RCMs (30 %–40 %) and GCMs (30 %–40 %). However, under a single scenario, the contribution of the PE formulation is much higher and can reach up to 50 % of the total variance. All PE formulations show similar future trends, as climatic variables are co-dependent with respect to temperature. While no PE formulation stands out from the others, the Penman–Monteith formulation may be preferred in hydrological impact studies, as it is representative of the PE formulations' ensemble mean and allows one to account for the coevolution of climate and environmental drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the autumn, the French Mediterranean area is frequently exposed to heavy precipitation events whose daily accumulation can exceed 300 mm. One of the key processes contributing to these precipitation amounts is deep convection, which can be explicitly resolved by state-of-the-art convection-permitting models to reproduce heavy rainfall events that are comparable to observations. This approach has been tested and performed at climate scale in several studies in recent decades for different areas. In this research, we investigate the added value of using an ensemble of three climate simulations at convection-permitting resolution (approx. 3 km) to replicate extreme precipitation events at both daily and shorter timescales over the south of France. These three convection-permitting simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. They are forced by three EURO-CORDEX simulations, which are also run with WRF at the resolution of 0.11 ∘ (approx. 12 km). We found that a convection-permitting approach provides a more realistic representation of extreme daily and 3-hourly rainfall in comparison with EURO-CORDEX simulations. Their similarity to observations allows use for climate change studies and its impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how water resources vary in response to climate at different temporal and spatial scales is crucial to inform long-term management. Climate change impacts and induced trends may indeed be substantially modulated by low-frequency (multi-year) variations, whose strength varies in time and space, with large consequences for risk forecasting systems. In this study, we present a spatial classification of precipitation, temperature, and discharge variability in France, based on a fuzzy clustering and wavelet spectra of 152 near-natural watersheds between 1958 and 2008. We also explore phase–phase and phase–amplitude causal interactions between timescales of each homogeneous region. A total of three significant timescales of variability are found in precipitation, temperature, and discharge, i.e., 1, 2–4, and 5–8 years. The magnitude of these timescales of variability is, however, not constant over the different regions. For instance, southern regions are markedly different from other regions, with much lower (5–8 years) variability and much larger (2–4 years) variability. Several temporal changes in precipitation, temperature, and discharge variability are identified during the 1980s and 1990s. Notably, in the southern regions of France, we note a decrease in annual temperature variability in the mid 1990s. Investigating cross-scale interactions, our study reveals causal and bi-directional relationships between higher- and lower-frequency variability, which may feature interactions within the coupled land–ocean–atmosphere systems. Interestingly, however, even though time frequency patterns (occurrence and timing of timescales of variability) were similar between regions, cross-scale interactions are far much complex, differ between regions, and are not systematically transferred from climate (precipitation and temperature) to hydrological variability (discharge). Phase–amplitude interactions are indeed absent in discharge variability, although significant phase–amplitude interactions are found in precipitation and temperature. This suggests that watershed characteristics cancel the negative feedback systems found in precipitation and temperature. This study allows for a multi-timescale representation of hydroclimate variability in France and provides unique insight into the complex nonlinear dynamics of this variability and its predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within the framework of air quality studies at the megacity scale, highly time-resolved volatile organic compound (C2-C8) measurements were performed in downtown Paris (urban background sites) from January to November 2010. This unique dataset included non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and aromatic/oxygenated species (OVOCs) measured by a GC-FID (gas chromatograph with a flame ionization detector) and a PTR-MS (proton transfer reaction - mass spectrometer), respectively. This study presents the seasonal variability of atmospheric VOCs being monitored in the French megacity and their various associated emission sources. Clear seasonal and diurnal patterns differed from one VOC to another as the result of their different origins and the influence of environmental parameters (solar radiation, temperature). Source apportionment (SA) was comprehensively conducted using a multivariate mathematical receptor modeling. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's positive matrix factorization tool (US EPA, PMF) was used to apportion and quantify ambient VOC concentrations into six different sources. The modeled source profiles were identified from near-field observations (measurements from three distinct emission sources: inside a highway tunnel, at a fireplace and from a domestic gas flue, hence with a specific focus on road traffic, wood-burning activities and natural gas emissions) and hydrocarbon profiles reported in the literature. The reconstructed VOC sources were cross validated using independent tracers such as inorganic gases (NO, NO2, CO), black carbon (BC) and meteorological data (temperature). The largest contributors to the predicted VOC concentrations were traffic-related activities (including motor vehicle exhaust, 15% of the total mass on the annual average, and evaporative sources, 10%), with the remaining emissions from natural gas and background (23%), solvent use (20%), wood-burning (18%) and a biogenic source (15%). An important finding of this work is the significant contribution from wood-burning, especially in winter, where it could represent up to ~ 50% of the total mass of VOCs. Biogenic emissions also surprisingly contributed up to ~ 30% in summer (due to the dominating weight of OVOCs in this source). Finally, the mixed natural gas and background source exhibited a high contribution in spring (35%, when continental air influences were observed) and in autumn (23%, for home heating consumption). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores how catchment heterogeneity and variability can be summarized in simplified models, representing the dominant hydrological processes. It focuses on Mediterranean catchments, characterized by heterogeneous geology, pedology and land use, as well as steep topography and a rainfall regime in which summer droughts contrast with high-rainfall periods in autumn. The Ardèche catchment (Southeast France), typical of this environment, is chosen to explore the following questions: (1) can such a Mediterranean catchment be adequately characterized by a simple dynamical systems approach and what are the limits of the method under such conditions? (2) what information about dominant predictors of hydrological variability can be retrieved from this analysis in such catchments? In this work we apply the data-driven approach of Kirchner (2009) to estimate discharge sensitivity functions that summarize the behaviour of four sub-catchments of the Ardèche, using low-vegetation periods (November-March) from 9 years of measurements (2000-2008) from operational networks. The relevance of the inferred sensitivity function is assessed through hydrograph simulations, and through estimating precipitation rates from discharge fluctuations. We find that the discharge sensitivity function is downwardcurving in double-logarithmic space, thus allowing further simulation of discharge and non-divergence of the model, only during low-vegetation periods. The analysis is complemented by a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis showing how the parameters summarizing the discharge sensitivity function impact the simulated hydrographs. The resulting discharge simulation results are good for granite catchments, which are likely to be characterized by shallow subsurface flow at the interface between soil and bedrock. The simple dynamical system hypothesis works especially well in wet conditions (peaks and recessions are well modelled). On the other hand, poor model performance is associated with summer and dry periods when evapotranspiration is high and low-flow discharge observations are inaccurate. In the Ardèche catchment, inferred precipitation rates agree well in timing and amount with observed gauging stations and SAFRAN climatic data reanalysis during the low-vegetation periods. The model should further be improved to include a more accurate representation of actual evapotranspiration, but provides a satisfying summary of the catchment functioning during wet and winter periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cluster particles (0.8-1.9 nm) are key entities involved in nucleation and new particle formation processes in the atmosphere. Cluster ions were characterized in clear sky conditions at the Puy de Dôme station (1465ma.s.l.). The studied data set spread over five years (February 2007- February 2012), which provided a unique chance to observe seasonal variations of cluster ion properties at high altitude. Statistical values of the cluster ion concentrations and diameters are reported for both positive and negative polarities. Cluster ions were found to be ubiquitous at the Puy de Dôme and displayed an annual variation with lower concentrations in spring. Positive cluster ions were less numerous than negative, but were larger in diameter. Negative cluster ion properties were not sensitive to the occurrence of a new particle formation (NPF) event, while positive cluster ions appeared to be significantly more numerous and larger on event days. The parameters of the balance equation for the positive cluster concentration are reported separately for the different seasons and for the NPF event days and non-event days. The steady-state assumption suggests that the ionization rate is balanced with two sinks: the ion recombination and the attachment onto background aerosol particles, referred to as "aerosol ion sink". The aerosol ion sink was predominant compared to the recombination sink. The positive ionization rates derived from the balance equation (Qcalc) were well correlated with the ionization rates obtained from radon measurement (Qmeas). When ignoring the gamma radiation contribution to the ion production, Qcalc is on average higher than Qmeas during the warm season. In contrast, when a seasonal gamma contribution is taken into account, Qmeas always exceeds Qcalc. We found that neither the aerosol ion sink nor the ionization rate (calculated or measured, with or without the gamma contribution) were significantly different on event days compared to non-event days, and thus, they were not able to explain the different positive cluster concentrations between event and non-event days. Hence, the excess of positive small ions on event days may derive from an additional constant source of ions leading to a non-steady state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study that investigates the efficacy of the atmosphere ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSLCM5A) in assessing warm climate of the mid-Pliocene period in France. Researchers evaluated the atmospheric circulation using the AOGCM. They found that the model is effective because it produces detailed reports of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP).

Natural hazards, due to climate change, are particularly damaging in urban areas because of interdependencies of their networks. So, urban resilience has to face up to climate risks. The most impacting phenomenon is the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The storage capacity of heat is depending on shapes of buildings, public spaces, spatial organization, transport or even industrial activities. So, adaptive strategies for improving urban climate could be possible in different ways. In the framework of the French project Resilis, this study characterises urban vulnerability and resilience in terms of energy needs of buildings and outside urban comfort according to the IPCC carbon dioxide emission scenarios B2 and A2 for the period 2050--2100 for 10 French cities. The evolutions of four climate indicators in terms of heating and cooling needs and number of hours when the temperature is above 28 °C are then obtained for each city to analyse climate risks and their impacts in urban environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of the French research project CHACCRA (Climate and Human-induced Alterations in Carbon Cycling at the River-seA connection), living (rose Bengal-stained) benthic foraminifera were investigated at two stations (24 and 67m depth) in the Rhôme prodelta (NW Mediterranean, Gulf of Lions). The aim of this study was to precise the response of benthic foraminiferal faunas to temporal changes of the Rhôme River inputs (e.g. organic and terrigeneous material). Each site was sampled in April 2007, September 2007, May 2008 and December 2008, permitting to observe foraminiferal faunas of the 63-150 and >150 µm size fractions under a wide range of environmental conditions. Obvious variations in foraminiferal faunal composition were observed during the four investigated periods at the shallowest Station A located in the close vicinity of the Rhôme River mouth. After major Rhôme River flood events, different colonisation stages were observed with foraminiferal faunas responding with an opportunistic strategy few days to weeks after the creation of a peculiar sedimentary environment (Leptohalysis scottii, May 2008) or high organic matter supplies (Ammonia tepida, December 2008). Under more stable conditions, relatively diverse and equilibrated faunas grew in the sediments. Species benefited from noticeable input of riverine phytodetritus to the sediment during spring bloom conditions (April 2007; e.g. Bolivina dilatata, Nonionella stella, Stainforthia fusiformis), or high amounts of still bio-available organic matter under more oligotrophic conditions (September 2007; e.g. Ammonia tepida, Psammosphaera fusca). The reduced influence of the Rhôme River input at the farther Station N led to less contrasted environmental conditions during the four sampling periods, and so to less obvious variations in foraminiferal faunal composition. During reduced riverine influence (i.e. low Rhôme discharge), species able to feed on fresh phytodetritus (e.g. Clavulina cylindrica, Hopkinsina atlantica, Nonionella iridea and Nonionella turgida) benefited from eutrophic conditions of the spring bloom (April 2007, May 2008). Conversely, the occurrence of Nouria polymorphinoides under oligotrophic conditions (September 2007, December 2008) was indicative of a benthic environment potentially disturbed by bottom currents. This study put into evidence the extremely rapid response of benthic foraminiferal faunas to strong variations in environmental conditions mostly induced by the Rhôme dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow avalanche activity is controlled to a large extent by snow and weather patterns. However, its response to climate fluctuations remains poorly documented. Previous studies have focused on direct extraction of trends in avalanche and winter climate data, and this study employs a time-implicit method to model annual avalanche activity in the French Alps during the 1958-2009 period from its most representative climatic drivers. Modelled snow and weather data for different elevations and aspects are considered as covariates that explain actual observed avalanche counts, modelled instability indexes, and a combination of both avalanche activity indicators. These three series present relatively similar fluctuations over the period and good consistency with historically harsh winters. A stepwise procedure is used to obtain regression models that accurately represent trends as well as high and low peaks with a small number of physically meaningful covariates, showing their climatic relevance. The activity indicators and their regression models seen as time series show, within a high interannual variability, a predominant bell-shaped pattern presumably related to a short period of colder and snowier winters around 1980, as well as a very slight but continuous increase between 1975 and 2000 concomitant with warming. Furthermore, the regression models quantify the respective weight of the different covariates, mostly temperature anomalies and south-facing snowpack characteristics to explain the trends and most of the exceptional winters. Regional differences are discussed as well as seasonal variations between winter and spring activity and confirm rather different snow and weather regimes influencing avalanche activity over the Northern and Southern Alps, depending on the season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a 0.5Mm⊃ rock avalanche that occurred in 2008 in the western Alps and discuss possible roles of controlling factors in the context of current climate change. The source is located between 2410m and 2653 ma.s.l. on Mont Crammont and is controlled by a densely fractured rock structure. The main part of the collapsed rock mass deposited at the foot of the rock wall. A smaller part travelled much farther, reaching horizontal and vertical travel distances of 3050m and 1560m, respectively. The mobility of the rock mass was enhanced by channelization and snow. The rock-avalanche volume was calculated by comparison of pre- and post-event DTMs, and geomechanical characterization of the detachment zone was extracted from LiDAR point cloud processing. Back analysis of the rock-avalanche runout suggests a two stage event. There was no previous rock avalanche activity from the Mont Crammont ridge during the Holocene. The 2008 rock avalanche may have resulted from permafrost degradation in the steep rock wall, as suggested by seepage water in the scar after the collapse in spite of negative air temperatures, and modelling of rock temperatures that indicate warm permafrost (T > -2° C). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil organic carbon plays a major role in the global carbon budget, and can act as a source or a sink of atmospheric carbon, thereby possibly influencing the course of climate change. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are now taken into account in international negotiations regarding climate change. Consequently, developing sampling schemes and models for estimating the spatial distribution of SOC stocks is a priority. The French soil monitoring network has been established on a 16km x 16km grid and the first sampling campaign has recently been completed, providing around 2200 measurements of stocks of soil organic carbon, obtained through an in situ composite sampling, uniformly distributed over the French territory. We calibrated a boosted regression tree model on the observed stocks, modelling SOC stocks as a function of other variables such as climatic parameters, vegetation net primary productivity, soil properties and land use. The calibrated model was evaluated through cross-validation and eventually used for estimating SOC stocks for mainland France. Two other models were calibrated on forest and agricultural soils separately, in order to assess more precisely the influence of pedo-climatic variables on SOC for such soils. The boosted regression tree model showed good predictive ability, and enabled quantification of relationships between SOC stocks and pedo-climatic variables (plus their interactions) over the French territory. These relationships strongly depended on the land use, and more specifically, differed between forest soils and cultivated soil. The total estimate of SOC stocks in France was 3.260 ± 0.872 PgC for the first 30cm. It was compared to another estimate, based on the previously published European soil organic carbon and bulk density maps, of 5.303 PgC. We demonstrate that the present estimate might better represent the actual SOC stock distributions of France, and consequently that the previously published approach at the European level greatly overestimates SOC stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which determines the effects of climate change on forage and crop production in France. The study is noted to use two types of models, wherein the first model estimates changes in national or local climates while the other model uses climatic data to estimate the effects on vegetation. Furthermore. the study presents examples the variability of criteria influencing crop production in various regions of the region and some possible effects on crops.

Droughts can induce important building damages due to shrinking and swelling of soils, leading to costs as large as for floods in some regions. Previous studies have focused on damage data analysis, geological or constructional aspects. Here, a study investigating the climatic aspects of soil subsidence damage is presented for the first time. We develop a simple model to examine if the meteorology has a considerable impact on the interannual variability of damages from soil subsidence in France. We find that the model is capable of reproducing yearly drought-induced building damages for the time period 1989-2002, thus suggesting a strong meteorological influence. Furthermore, our results reveal a doubling of damages in these years compared to 1961- 1990, mainly as a consequence of increasing temperatures. This indicates a link to climate change. We also apply the model to the extreme summer of 2003, which caused a further increase in damage by a factor four, according to a preliminary damage estimate. The simulation result for that year shows strong damage underestimation, pointing to additional sources of vulnerability. Damage data suggest a higher sensitivity to soil subsidence of regions first affected by drought in the 2003 summer, possibly due to a lack of preparedness and adaptation. This is of strong concern in the context of climate change, as densely populated regions in Central Europe and North America are expected to become newly affected by drought in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France) was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March) of the 1958-2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000-2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray). The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm) was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A) and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A) for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sensitivity of some aspects of water quality to climate change was assessed in the Seine River (France) with the biogeochemical model RIVERSTRAHLER, which describes the transformations and fluxes of C, N, P and Si between the main microbiological populations, the water column and the sediment, along the entire river network. Point and diffuse sources are prescribed, stream temperature undergoes a sinusoidal annual cycle constrained by observations, and runoff is calculated by a physically-based land surface model. The reference simulation, using meteorological forcing of 1986-1990 and point sources of 1991, compares very well with observations. The climate change simulated by a general circulation model under the SRES emission scenario A2 was used to simulate the related changes in runoff and stream temperature. To this end, a statistical analysis was undertaken of the relationships between the water and air temperatures in the Seine watershed over 1993-1999, using 88 points that correctly sampled the variability of the tributaries. Most of stream temperature variance was explained by the lagged moving average of air temperature, with parameters that depended on Strahler stream order. As an interesting simplification, stream temperature changes could be approximated by air temperature changes. This modelling framework was used to analyse of the relative influence of the water warming and discharge reduction induced by climate change on biogeochemical water quality in Paris and downstream. Discharge reduction increased phytoplankton growth and oxygen deficits. Water warming decreased dissolved oxygen, increased phytoplankton biomass during the growth period, and reduced it afterwards, when loss factors dominate. It was also shown that these impacts were enhanced when point source inputs of nutrient and organic carbon increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]