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Trends in global, regional and national CO2 emissions and removals from forest for the period 1990-2020, are estimated for the first time using data from the Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 2020, providing new information with respect to the previous FRA 2015. Estimates indicate significant reduction of deforestation emissions over the study period, albeit more slowly than previously assessed, from an average of 4.3 Gt CO2 yr-1 during 1991-2000, to an average of 2.9 Gt CO2 yr-1 during 2016-2020. Remaining forest land was a significant net carbon sink globally and over the entire period, albeit decreasing in strength, from -3.4 Gt CO2 yr-1 in 1991-2000 to -2.5 Gt CO2 yr-1 during 2016-2020. The overall net contribution of forests to atmospheric CO2(i.e., the combined effect of deforestation and forest emissions/removals) was an overall emission source of roughly 0.4 Gt CO2 yr-1 on average during 1991-2020, more than one-third less than previously estimated. Remarkably, the new data also suggest an overall net sink of about -0.7 Gt CO2 yr-1 during 2011-2015, never reported before. Forest emissions/removals data independently reported by countries to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change were in excellent agreement with the FAO estimates over the entire period 1990-2020, confirming a large sink on forest land estimated for 2011-2015. Data are made available as open access via the Zenodo portal (Tubiello, 2020), with DOI 10.5281/zenodo.3941973. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This "zero emissions commitment" (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘ C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘ C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This "Zero Emissions Commitment" (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget - a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth System Models (ESMs) and Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) - a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation - with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2015, El Niño caused severe droughts in equatorial Asia (EA). The severe droughts enhanced fire activities in the dry seasons, leading to massive fire emissions of CO2 and aerosols. Using large event attribution ensembles of the MIROC5 atmospheric global climate model, we suggest that historical anthropogenic warming increased the chances of meteorological droughts exceeding the 2015 observations in the EA area. Large probability increases in stronger droughts than the 2015 event are found in the ensemble simulations of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming according to the Paris Agreement goals. Further drying is projected in the 3.0 °C ensemble. We combine these experiments and empirical functions between precipitation, burned area, and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5. Increases in the chances of the burned area and the emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 exceeding the 2015 observations due to anthropogenic climate change in the past are not significant. In contrast, there are significant increases in the burned area and CO2 and PM2.5 emissions even if the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C goals are achieved. If global warming reaches 3.0 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies of nations, the chances of the burned area, CO2 and PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 observed values become approximately 100 %, at least in the single model ensembles. We also compare changes in fire CO2 emissions due to climate changes and the land-use CO2 emission scenarios of five shared socio-economic pathways, where the climate change effects on fire are not considered. There are two main implications. First, in a national policy context, future EA climate policy will need to consider these climate change effects regarding both mitigation and adaptation aspects. Second, the consideration of fire increases would change global CO2 emissions and the mitigation strategy, which suggests that future climate change mitigation studies should take these factors into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

S. Nordio1-2, F. Flapp1-2, S. Fumich3This presentation is about an educational experience in which high school students are comparing historical end recent strong wind events and investigating traditional architectures which were designed to resist such weather phenomena and which may now provide interesting insights for local climate change adaptation strategies.The experience is being carried out in Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) region (1.200.000 inhabitants, about 8.000 km2) in northeastern Italy and it is part of a long standing educational project regarding weather and climate science, which has been developed by a high school (Liceo Scientifico "Galilei") in Trieste in collaboration with the regional meteorological observatory (OSMER) belonging to the Regional Environmental Protection Agency (ARPA FVG) and with the non-profit organization UMFVG - Meteorological Union of FVG. Such educational activities are highly interactive and are often carried out through a peer-tutoring approach. In 2018 the Liceo "Galilei" students were also involved in promoting a survey about knowledge, perception and attitudes concerning climate change among their peers. 620 high school students answered the on-line questionnaire: some results will be presented as well.The most recent activity in the educational project focuses on wind, adaptation and climate change.The city of Trieste and the surrounding Carso highland are typically swept by a strong wind, the Bora, blowing from east-northeast in gusts often exceeding 110-120 km/h and reaching occasionally 160-170 km/h (daily average wind speed about 80-100 km/h). Over the centuries, people living in the area developed spontaneous architectures and building techniques in order to resist this strong wind, but in recent years other areas in Friuli Venezia Giulia have been affected by unusually strong wind events, related to severe weather phenomena (such as storms, thunderstorms, downbursts) and/or peculiar mesoscale meteorological situations. The impacts were serious and, as such situations are likely to occur more frequently because of climate change, local adaptation strategies and measures will be necessary in order to prevent and reduce risks and damages.In this context, thirty "Galilei" high school students (age 17-19) are being involved in:• analyzing climate statistics regarding the winds in FVG region;• investigating both extreme wind (Bora) events that took place in the past in the area of Trieste and the most recent ones that occurred in other areas of FVG region;• collecting information and evidence about spontaneous architectures and building techniques employed in Trieste and Carso houses, industrial facilities, harbor area etc. in order to resist the Bora gusts;• learning about global and local climate change and about mitigation and adaptation concepts.This process is helping students to become aware of the importance of adapting to the local climate and, increasingly, to a changing climate. Identifying adaptive solutions to resist strong wind events may provide cues for discussing possible adaptation strategies also with local stakeholders and decision makers. The outcomes of this work, together with the results of the 2018 survey, will be presented to the other students of the school and to the public, through conferences, online videos, radio broadcasts etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is expected that climate change will affect Sub-Saharan countries in many ways. It is possible to combat droughts, precipitation and heatwaves with applications such as early warning systems and enhancing adaptation capacity of the people in the face of extreme climate events caused by climate change. The increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events will be an important factor that aggregate the sectoral risks. In the study, changes in climate and aridity conditions for 16 Sub-Saharan countries (i.e. Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania etc.) are analyzed within the scope of exposure to extreme climate events. Climate change are examined in two parts. First of all, the current temperature and precipitation trends of these countries are revealed by using CRU observation data set prepared by the Climatic Research Unit of University of East Anglia. Additionally, the aridity conditions of the countries are classified for the period of 1970-2015 using the aridity index determined by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). In the second part of the study, temperature and precipitation changes in Sub-Saharan are examined under different representative concentration pathways by using various global climate model outputs for the near-term (2025-2049), mid-term (2050-2074) and long-term (2071-2095) with respect to the reference period.Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Boğaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 15042. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The report of the United Nations (UN) released in October 2018 posed a 12-year deadline to limit climate change to a global temperature rise of 1.5-2 ºC by the end of the 21st century. If we choose to ignore this call, we risk, in the most probable scenario, ending up with a ~3-5 ºC increase in global average temperature in the course of one century only. Reconstructions of past climates show that such a strong change in average global temperature is comparable to, or even more pronounced than, that which occurred during the transition from the last ice age to the pre-industrial period, but with a 1000-fold increase in rate. It has been suggested that the changes we are observing today may lead to a sixth mass extinction, since literally half of Earth's wild life is already on the move towards higher latitudes and higher altitudes (e.g., Pecl et al., 2017), coral reefs and trees are dying, and phytoplankton, which is responsible for 50% of the oxygen on Earth, is endangered by climate change. These responses of the biosphere to ongoing warming occur in tandem with more frequent extreme weather events, diminishing glaciers, and higher sea levels. Such transformations have happened before: a recent study has shown that the Permian mass extinction (~250 million years ago) was related to a rapid rise in global temperatures that ultimately killed 96% of all marine species and ~70% of terrestrial life. Thus, if the perception of the world's majority does not change drastically, meeting the conditions that caused the Permian mass extinction could be a matter of time, perhaps only decades from now. The situation calls for action, rapid and unceasing. However, such action would require a financial commitment as well as time investment that are outside the priorities of most countries. This study presents a new, multifaceted educational program that builds upon an extensive use of mass communication and a simplification (reduction of complexity) of scientific findings to inform citizens about the impacts of observed climate change, upcoming dangers, and actions to take. The aim of this program is to educate and change the perception of citizens, thus promoting action by decision makers. As part of it we propose to target television (advertisement time and shows), cinemas, radio, street panels, internet resources, virtual reality, computer games, and apps as media through which the message about the ongoing climate change can be delivered to every country, every street and every home, letting people experience it from different angles. Through the years our team has tested and developed an efficient program for an international funding acquisition, and with this abstract we invite partners from all over the world and from all branches of science, art, and technology to join us and expand this educational effort to the global scale.Pecl, et. al. (2017). Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science. 355:6332. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this science communication project Biochar NET-2-U-2, we sought to make the public aware of climate change combating nature-based negative emission technologies (NETs), specifically making tangible links to the Paris-COP (Conference of the Parties) Four per Mille campaign, which is an International Soils for Food Security and Climate Change initiative, which promotes soil based carbon sequestration as one of a basket of measures to alleviate the impacts of climate change. Biochar addition to soil fits well into this framework. By making links with this global initiative we endeavored to engage the public in a horizontal dialogue on climate change and to inspire attitude and behavioral changes, working both at local and global scales. In particular, we sought to highlight and publicize the role science plays in ensuring that these potential technologies, such as biochar addition to soils are risk free and good for humanity, and that decisions on their use are grounded in evidence based findings.We conducted public outreach in the at larger public events aimed at urban and rural, wine and (small/allotment) "klein" gardeners, "Kids Uni" etc. reaching out to a large number of people in Austria. We presented our Kon-Tiki biochar kiln in action; a flaming center piece to inspire fire-side discussions. We also presented our newly developed biochar-jiko, which is modified cook stove/micro-gasification unit being trialed in our ADA-research and development project in Uganda, which has the potential to address many issues at the Food-Energy-Environment Nexus. We underpinned this crowd pulling strategy with an interactive semi-permanent exhibition about biochar and NETs, in Austria and beyond. Moreover, at each event we encouraged the public to participate in our pot-scale Citizen Science endeavor; collaboratively investigating the benefits of using biochar to improve the nodulation of legumes and thus nitrogen fixation, we tested these effects using state of the art stable isotope techniques. This soil based tacit activity, drew and fueled interest from both young and old, facilitating discourse with the general public. We collected, collated, discussed and interpreted the data, we then brought together all the scientists and social actors we had engaged with in a Second Big-Biochar-Day where set out to foster a global outlook by making tangible links to on-going projects in developing countries. Finally, to archive and promote the insights gained at the Big Biochar Day event to a wider audience we produced a Pod-Cast, recording interviews with key players in the field of Biochar research in Austria. We will present and discuss the successes and failures in our science communication approach. https://www.wabo.boku.ac.at/ibf/forschung/forschungsschwerpunkte/stable-isotope-group/projekte/biochar-net-2-u-2/ [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exploitation of the subsurface resources fossil fuels, raw materials and water has been the primary driver for the development of the modern society. Current climate change and projected future climate change scenarios clearly demonstrate that especially the exploitation of fossil fuels is not sustainable in a global perspective and that this practice has to change. Overexploitation and non-sustainable use of the subsurface adds significantly to the current climate change and the threat to several planetary boundaries. Continuing this practice is unethical and irresponsible towards future generations. Fortunately, the subsurface is not just a significant part of the problem; it is also an essential part of the solutions for mitigating and adapting to climate change. A prerequisite for developing sustainable use of the subsurface and working towards the UN sustainable development goals is a sound understanding of the geological, geophysical and geochemical conditions of the upper kilometers of the subsurface and its interaction with the earth mantel materials below. It is the ambition of the GeoERA project to further develop the European Geological Data Infrastructure as a leading information platform for subsurface data in Europe and one of the leading platforms, globally. Here we briefly present the 15 projects within GeoERA and their contribution to a better understanding and geoethical use of the subsurface. GeoERA focuses on providing data for sustainable use of the subsurface to meet the UN sustainable development goals and the need for efficient solutions for mitigating and adapting to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use change and land management are considered a key driver of past and future global climate change – for contributing about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions until today, and for playing a key role in achieving net negative emissions under strong mitigation scenarios. Yet estimates of CO2 fluxes associated with land use change and land management even in recent years have an uncertainty of typically +/- 50%. This hampers trust in our understanding of the carbon cycle and of estimates of future sink potentials by land use activities. Understanding why land use change fluxes are so uncertain is therefore an imminent research gap.Here we review the state of knowledge of differences in land use change fluxes, the relevance of land management in carbon emissions, and the terminological differences of fundamentally different approaches of quantifying these fluxes. We then use BLUE ("bookkeeping of land use emissions"), one of the two bookkeeping models providing the net land use change flux for the annual carbon budget estimates, to investigate in detail the land use dynamics and flux dynamics of time periods and regions that diverge from other estimates. This is particularly relevant as BLUE provides a link between other bookkeeping estimates and process-based land surface model intercomparisons because it shares the same land use reconstruction (the land use harmonization) with the latter. In our analysis we for example show that a substantial part of global emissions in particular in the first part of the 20th century is an overlay of temporarily high emissions from temporary land use activities in individual, often pristine, regions, which permanently degrades the land carbon stocks in the bookkeeping models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The majority of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originate from cities.Therefore, monitoring emissions in cities is essential to fight climate change. In Germanyand many other countries worldwide the emission reduction goals are evaluatedby using a software which is based on a bottom-up calculation method instead ofmeasuring the real emissions because of the difficulty to measure emissions of a big areasource. Therefore, we have developed the so-called differential column measurementapproach [1]. Thereby ground-based FTIR spectrometer (EM27/SUN from Bruker [3,4]) are used to determine the column-averaged concentrations of CO2, CO andCH4 upwind and downwind of a city. The difference of those two concentrations isthen proportional to the city emissions. As the wind is not constant in time twospectrometer are not sufficient for a city measurement. Thus, five spectrometers havebeen used in the 2018 Munich city campaign: one at each cardinal direction (N, E,W, and S) and one in the city centre to get a better spatial resolution of the cityemissions. This measurement campaign was the world-wide first one which used the differentialcolumn method in a fully automated way. For that purpose automated enclosures for theEM27/SUN have been developed [2]. They are controlled by several sensors (rain,temperature, humidity, etc.) to protect the spectrometer inside from harsh environmentalconditions. Besides Munich, our enclosure has also been deployed in Finland last year, nextto the TCCON station in Sodankylä, and is going to be deployed in Uganda this year. Theselocations represent extreme conditions and challenges, and the successful deploymentsshows that almost the whole latitude range can be covered by those automatedenclosures. In the Munich city campaign 2018 five of them have been used to reduce the need foroperating personnel to a minimum and, therefore, to increase the amount of measurementdata to a maximum. Due to those automated enclosures it was possible to measure on each ofthe 25 sunny days in August from the very early morning (about 05:00 am UTC)to the evening (about 05:00 pm UTC) independent on whether it was during theweek, on a weekend or on a public holiday. With the help of this measurementcampaign we showed that we are capable to establish a totally automated GHGmeasurement network using ground-based column measurements to determineGHG emission trends of a city in the course of the years. Besides the network setupwe will also show the results of that campaign which can be used for emissionestimations. [1] J. Chen et al.: Differential column measurements using compact solar-trackingspectrometers. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16(13): 8479–8498, 2016. [2] Heinle, L. and Chen, J.: Automated Enclosure and Protection System for CompactSolar-Tracking Spectrometers, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 2173-2185, 2018. [3] Gisi, M. et al.: XCO2-measurements with a tabletop FTS using solar absorptionspectroscopy, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 5, 2969-2980, 2012 [4] Hase, F. et al.: Addition of a channel for XCO observations to a portable FTIRspectrometer for greenhouse gas measurements, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2303-2313, 2016 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]