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Lagrangian trajectories have previously been used to reconstruct water vapor variability in the lower stratosphere, where the sensitivity of surface radiation to changes in the water vapor concentration is strongest, by obtaining temperature histories of air parcels that ascend from the troposphere to the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Models and theory predict an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) and deceleration of the Walker circulation with surface warming, and both of these will drive future changes to transport across the TTL. Here, we examine the response of TTL transport during boreal winter to idealized changes in the BDC and Walker circulation by comparing the temperature histories of trajectories computed with ERA5 data to those calculated using the same data but with altered vertical and zonal wind velocities. We find that lower-stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios calculated from trajectories' cold point temperatures can increase by about 1.6 ppmv (about 50 %) when only zonal winds are slowed, while changes to vertical winds have a negligible impact on water vapor concentrations. This change follows from a decrease in zonal sampling of the temperature field by trajectories, which weakens the "cold trap" mechanism of dehydration as TTL transport evolves. As the zonal winds of the TTL decrease, the fraction of air that passes through the cold trap while ascending to the stratosphere will decrease and the coldest average temperature experienced by parcels will increase. Future changes to TTL temperatures can be applied as an offset to these temperature histories, including enhanced warming of the cold trap due to El Niño-like warming, which has a secondary impact on the fraction of air that is dehydrated by the cold trap. Some of the resultant moistening may be negated by a decreased rate of temperature change following the cold point, which will allow more ice to gravitationally settle before sublimating outside of the cold trap. This result presents a mechanism for a stratospheric water vapor feedback that can exist without changes to TTL temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lagrangian trajectories have previously been used to reconstruct water vapor variability in the lower stratosphere, where the sensitivity of surface radiation to changes in the water vapor concentration is strongest, by obtaining temperature histories of air parcels that ascend from the troposphere to the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Models and theory predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) and deceleration of the Walker Circulation (WC) with surface warming, and both of these will drive future changes to transport across the TTL. Here, we examine the response of TTL transport during boreal winter to idealized changes in the BDC and WC by comparing the temperature histories of trajectories computed with ERA5 data to those calculated using the same data but with altered vertical and zonal wind velocities. We find that lower stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios calculated from trajectories' cold point temperatures can increase by about 1.6 ppmv (about 50%) when only zonal winds are slowed, while changes to vertical winds have a negligible impact on water vapor concentrations. This change follows from a decrease in zonal sampling of the temperature field by trajectories, which weakens the "cold trap" mechanism of dehydration as TTL transport evolves. As the zonal winds of the TTL decrease, the fraction of air that passes through the cold trap while ascending to the stratosphere will decrease and the coldest average temperature experienced by parcels will increase. Some of the resultant moistening may be negated by a decreased rate of temperature change following the cold point, which will allow more ice to gravitationally settle before sublimating outside of the cold trap. This result presents a mechanism for a stratospheric water vapor feedback that can exist without changes to TTL temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lagrangian trajectories have previously been used to reconstruct water vapor variability in the lower stratosphere, where the sensitivity of surface radiation to changes in the water vapor concentration is strongest, by obtaining temperature histories of air parcels that ascend from the troposphere to the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Models and theory predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) and deceleration of the Walker Circulation (WC) with surface warming, and both of these will drive future changes to transport across the TTL. Here, we examine the response of TTL transport during boreal winter to idealized changes in the BDC and WC by comparing the temperature histories of trajectories computed with ERA5 data to those calculated using the same data but with altered vertical and zonal wind velocities. We find that lower stratospheric water vapor mixing ratios calculated from trajectories' cold point temperatures can increase by about 1.6 ppmv (about 50 %) when only zonal winds are slowed, while changes to vertical winds have a negligible impact on water vapor concentrations. This change follows from a decrease in zonal sampling of the temperature field by trajectories, which weakens the 'cold trap' mechanism of dehydration as TTL transport evolves. As the zonal winds of the TTL decrease, the fraction of air that passes through the cold trap while ascending to the stratosphere will decrease and the coldest average temperature experienced by parcels will increase. Some of the resultant moistening may be negated by a decreased rate of temperature change following the cold point, which will allow more ice to gravitationally settle before sublimating outside of the cold trap. This result presents a mechanism for a stratospheric water vapor feedback that can exist without changes to TTL temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lagrangian trajectories are frequently used to trace air parcels from the troposphere to the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), and the coldest temperatures of these trajectories have been used to reconstruct water vapor variability in the lower stratosphere, where water vapor's radiative impact on Earth's surface is strongest. As such, the ability of these trajectories to accurately capture temperatures encountered by parcels in the TTL is crucial to water vapor reconstructions and calculations of water vapor's radiative forcing. A potential source of error for trajectory calculations is the resolution of the input data. Here, we explore how improving the spatial and temporal resolution of model input data impacts the temperatures measured by Lagrangian trajectories that cross the TTL during boreal winter using ERA5 reanalysis data. We do so by comparing the temperature distribution of trajectories computed with data downsampled in either space or time to those computed with ERA5's maximum resolution. We find that improvements in temporal resolution from 6 to 3 and 1 h lower the cold point temperature distribution, with the mean cold point temperature decreasing from 185.9 to 185.0 and 184.5 K for reverse trajectories initialized at the end of February for each year from 2010 to 2019, while improvements to vertical resolution from that of MERRA2 data (the GEOS5 model grid) to full ERA5 resolution also lower the distribution but are of secondary importance, and improvements in horizontal resolution from 1 ∘ × 1 ∘ to 0.5 ∘ × 0.5 ∘ or 0.25 ∘ × 0.25 ∘ have negligible impacts to trajectory cold points. We suggest that this is caused by excess vertical dispersion near the tropopause when temporal resolution is degraded, which allows trajectories to cross the TTL without passing through the coldest regions, and by undersampling of the four-dimensional temperature field when either temporal or vertical resolution is reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lagrangian trajectories are frequently used to trace air parcels from the troposphere to the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer (TTL), and the coldest temperatures of these trajectories have been used to reconstruct water vapor variability in the lower stratosphere, where water vapor's radiative impact on Earth's surface is strongest. As such, the ability of these trajectories to accurately capture temperatures encountered by parcels in the TTL is crucial to water vapor reconstructions and calculations of water vapor's radiative forcing. A potential source of error for trajectory calculations is 5 the resolution of the input data. Here, we explore how improving the temporal and spatial resolution of model input data impacts the temperatures measured by Lagrangian trajectories that cross the TTL during boreal winter using ERA5 reanalysis data. We do so by comparing the temperature distribution of trajectories computed with data downsampled in either space or time to those computed with ERA5's maximum resolution. We find that improvements in temporal resolution from 6 hour to 3 or 1 hour lower the cold point temperature distribution, with the mean cold point temperature decreasing from 185.9 K 10 to 185.0 K or 184.5 K for trajectories run during boreal winters of 2010 to 2019, while improvements to vertical resolution from that of MERRA2 data (the GEOS5 model grid) to full ERA5 resolution also lower the distribution but are of secondary importance, and improvements in horizontal resolution from 1° X 1° to 0.5° X 0.5° or 0.25° X 0.25° have negligible impacts. We suggest that this is caused by excess vertical dispersion near the tropopause when temporal resolution is degraded, which allows trajectories to cross the TTL without passing through the coldest regions, and by undersampling of the four--dimensional 15 temperature field when either temporal or vertical resolution is reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]