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Antarctic sea ice has exhibited significant variability over the satellite record, including a period of prolonged and gradual expansion, as well as a period of sudden decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain this variability, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatiotemporal structure of observed Antarctic sea ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. The third mode is also related to periods of abrupt Antarctic sea ice decline that are associated with a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat transport. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea ice and large-scale sea surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability is a key ingredient for abrupt Antarctic sea ice changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic sea ice gradually increased from the late 1970s until 2016, when it experienced an abrupt decline. A number of mechanisms have been proposed for both the gradual increase and abrupt decline of Antarctic sea ice, but how each mechanism manifests spatially and temporally remains poorly understood. Here, we use a statistical method called low-frequency component analysis to analyze the spatial-temporal structure of observed Antarctic sea-ice concentration variability. The identified patterns reveal distinct modes of low-frequency sea ice variability. The leading mode, which accounts for the large-scale, gradual expansion of sea ice, is associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and resembles the observed sea-surface temperature trend pattern that climate models have trouble reproducing. The second mode is associated with the central Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode, and accounts for most of the sea ice variability in the Ross Sea. The third mode is associated with the eastern Pacific ENSO and Amundsen Sea Low, and accounts for most of the pan-Antarctic sea-ice variability and almost all of the sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea. This mode is associated with periods of abrupt Antarctic sea-ice decline and is related to a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which favors surface warming through a shoaling of the ocean mixed layer and decreased northward Ekman heat convergence. Broadly, these results suggest that climate model biases in long-term Antarctic sea-ice and global sea-surface temperature trends are related to each other and that eastern Pacific ENSO variability causes abrupt sea ice changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce the first version of the Stochastic Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (StISSM v1.0), which adds stochastic parameterizations within a state-of-the-art large-scale ice sheet model. In StISSM v1.0, stochastic parameterizations target climatic fields with internal variability, as well as glaciological processes exhibiting variability that cannot be resolved at the spatiotemporal resolution of ice sheet models: calving and subglacial hydrology. Because both climate and unresolved glaciological processes include internal variability, stochastic parameterizations allow StISSM v1.0 to account for the impacts of their high-frequency variability on ice dynamics and on the long-term evolution of modeled glaciers and ice sheets. StISSM v1.0 additionally includes statistical models to represent surface mass balance and oceanic forcing as autoregressive processes. Such models, once appropriately calibrated, allow users to sample irreducible uncertainty in climate prediction without the need for computationally expensive ensembles from climate models. When combined together, these novel features of StISSM v1.0 enable quantification of irreducible uncertainty in ice sheet model simulations and of ice sheet sensitivity to noisy forcings. We detail the implementation strategy of StISSM v1.0, evaluate its capabilities in idealized model experiments, demonstrate its applicability at the scale of a Greenland ice sheet simulation, and highlight priorities for future developments. Results from our test experiments demonstrate the complexity of ice sheet response to variability, such as asymmetric and/or non-zero mean responses to symmetric, zero-mean imposed variability. They also show differing levels of projection uncertainty for stochastic variability in different processes. These features are in line with results from stochastic experiments in climate and ocean models, as well as with the theoretical expected behavior of noise-forced non-linear systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind work at the air-sea interface is the transfer of kinetic energy between the ocean and the atmosphere and, as such, is an important part of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system. Wind work is defined as the scalar product of ocean wind stress and surface current, with each of these two variables spanning, in this study, a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from 10 km to more than 3000 km and hours to months. These characteristics emphasize wind work's multiscale nature. In the absence of appropriate global observations, our study makes use of a new global, coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation, with horizontal grid spacing of 2–5 km for the ocean and 7 km for the atmosphere, analyzed for 12 months. We develop a methodology, both in physical and spectral spaces, to diagnose three different components of wind work that force distinct classes of ocean motions, including high-frequency internal gravity waves, such as near-inertial oscillations, low-frequency currents such as those associated with eddies, and seasonally averaged currents, such as zonal tropical and equatorial jets. The total wind work, integrated globally, has a magnitude close to 5 TW, a value that matches recent estimates. Each of the first two components that force high-frequency and low-frequency currents, accounts for ∼ 28 % of the total wind work and the third one that forces seasonally averaged currents, ∼ 44 %. These three components, when integrated globally, weakly vary with seasons but their spatial distribution over the oceans has strong seasonal and latitudinal variations. In addition, the high-frequency component that forces internal gravity waves, is highly sensitive to the collocation in space and time (at scales of a few hours) of wind stresses and ocean currents. Furthermore, the low-frequency wind work component acts to dampen currents with a size smaller than 250 km and strengthen currents with larger sizes. This emphasizes the need to perform a full kinetic budget involving the wind work and nonlinear advection terms as small and larger-scale low-frequency currents interact through these nonlinear terms. The complex interplay of surface wind stresses and currents revealed by the numerical simulation motivates the need for winds and currents satellite missions to directly observe wind work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind work at the air-sea interface is the transfer of kinetic energy between the ocean and the atmosphere and, as such, is an important part of the atmosphere-ocean coupled system. Since wind work involves winds and ocean currents that span a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, a comprehensive study would require access to observations of a wide range of space and time scales. In the absence of appropriate global observations, our study makes use of a new, global, coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation with horizontal grid spacing of 2-5 km for the ocean and 7 km for the atmosphere. Here we develop a methodology, both in physical and spectral space, to diagnose different components of wind work in terms of forcing distinct classes of oceanic motions, including mean currents, time-dependent large-scale currents and mesoscale eddies, and internal gravity waves such as near-inertial waves. The total simulated wind work has a magnitude of 5.21 TW, a value much larger than reported by previous modeling studies. The total wind work is first decomposed into time-mean and time-dependent components, with the former accounting for 2.23 TW (43%) and the latter 2.98 TW (57%). The time-dependent wind work is then decomposed into two components, a high-frequency component that forces internal gravity waves and a low-frequency component that forces mesoscale eddies and large-scale currents. The high-frequency component is positive at scales between 10 km and 1000 km and represents 75% of the total time-dependent component. The low-frequency component is found to be positive for spatial scales larger than 275 km and ten times larger than the negative part associated with smaller spatial scales. The negative wind work acts as a surface drag that slows down surface currents and damps mesoscale eddies whereas the positive low-frequency part accelerates large-scale currents. The complex and consequential interplay of surface winds and currents in the numerical simulation motivates the need for a winds-and-currents satellite mission to directly observe these wind work components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ice shelves of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet experience basal melting induced by underlying warm, salty Circumpolar Deep Water. Basal meltwater, along with runoff from ice sheets, supplies fresh buoyant water to a circulation feature near the coast, the Antarctic Coastal Current (AACC). The formation, structure, and coherence of the AACC has been well documented along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). Observations from instrumented seals collected in the Bellingshausen Sea offer extensive hydrographic coverage throughout the year, providing evidence of the continuation of the westward flowing AACC from the WAP towards the Amundsen Sea. The observations reported here demonstrate that the coastal boundary current enters the eastern Bellingshausen Sea from the WAP and flows westward along the face of multiple ice shelves, including the westernmost Abbot Ice Shelf. The presence of the AACC in the western Bellingshausen Sea has implications for the export of water properties into the eastern Amundsen Sea, which we suggest may occur through multiple pathways, either along the coast or along the continental shelf break. The temperature, salinity, and density structure of the current indicates an increase in baroclinic transport as the AACC flows from the east to the west, and as it entrains meltwater from the ice shelves in the Bellingshausen Sea. The AACC acts as a mechanism to transport meltwater out of the Bellingshausen Sea and into the Amundsen and Ross seas, with the potential to impact, respectively, basal melt rates and bottom water formation in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]