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Understanding how changes in limiting nutrient availability affect life in the oceans requires interdisciplinary efforts. Here we illustrate this with an example of silicon, one of the most common elements on land which bioavailable form, silicic acid (Si(OH)4), is a limiting nutrient for silicifying primary producers, such as diatoms. Silicic acid concentrations in the pelagic polar and subpolar North Atlantic have declined by 1-2 μM during spring pre-bloom conditions over the past 25 years. Many coastal areas of the North Atlantic region also face decreased relative availability of silicon due to increased riverine supply of nitrogen and phosphorus and stable or declining loads of silicon. Both declining silicic acid concentrations and declining silicon to nitrogen (Si:N) ratios limit the growth of diatoms, which are major primary producers contributing up to a quarter of global primary production.To assess the effects of declining silicon availability on phytoplankton communities we conducted a mesocosm experiment manipulating Si:N ratios and copepod grazing pressure on phytoplankton communities from the Baltic Sea. Declining Si:N ratio affected not only diatom abundance and relative biomass but also their species composition and overall plankton diversity. Our results illustrate the importance of silicon in structuring community composition at the base of temperate marine food webs. Changes in silicic acid concentrations and Si:N ratios, therefore, may have far-reaching consequences on oceanic primary production and planktonic food webs.The decline in silicon concentrations in polar and subpolar North Atlantic waters is attributed to natural multi-decadal variability but is likely amplified by reduced ocean mixing due to increased water temperatures, illustrating the need of international efforts to curb global climate change. The decline in Si:N ratios in coastal oceans also highlights the need for further reduction of nutrient pollution and improved river basin management. This may require interdisciplinary and international approaches to manage anthropogenic perturbations of the silicon cycle.

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and earth sciences communities have been crucial to build credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, and consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size) and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem, and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than is any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) CMIP5 outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP6 in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between, and uncertainties within, models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems, and improve our capacity to define and convey strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impacts projections. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the effects of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term effects up to 2299, compared to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impacts projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, health, and tropical cyclones).