Search

Risk perception is an essential element to consider for effective risk management at time of eruption, especially in densely populated cities close to volcanoes. The city of Goma in the East of the DR Congo is one these cities highly exposed to volcanic hazards and highly populated. The perception of volcanic risk involves the processes of collecting, selecting and interpreting signals about uncertain impacts of volcanic hazards. Using a questionnaire survey, this study describes the spatial variation and factors influencing the individual volcanic risk perception of 2204 adults from height representative neighbourhoods of the city of Goma before the May 2021 Nyiragongo eruption. A composite risk perception indicator was built from the perceived likelihood of occurrence of volcanic hazards and of their impacts and from the perceived likelihood of being personally impacted. Statistical analysis of survey’s results shows that the risk perception is mostly shaped by risk cognitive and psychological factors rather than demographic factors (group, family status and previous risk experience). Perceived personal exposure to and predictive power of environmental cues (sights and sounds that are considered to indicate a hazard onset) positively shape risk perception. The higher the level of personal understanding and interest in seeking risk information, the higher the risk perception. In addition, risk perception leads to high level of anxiety. Finally, the spatial analysis shows that the highest level of risk perception was observed in the eastern part of the city, previously impacted by lava flows in 2002.

Geo-hydrological hazards (landslides and floods) are often associated with significant damages on physical infrastructure like buildings and roads. Understanding the factors controlling the extent of damage is a prerequisite for quantitatively estimating risk and its spatial distribution, and advising on measures to reduce vulnerability. In this study we document the impact of 64 landslide and six flood events in four selected districts in western Uganda for the period May 2019 - March 2021 through extensive fieldwork. We quantify in economic value the physical damage of landslide and flood hazards on exposed buildings, roads and bridges. We then analyse the physical vulnerability based on damage ratios and determine the factors (building material, hazard characteristics and age of the building) that control the degree of damage using fractional logistic regression. Out of the 91 buildings affected by landslides, 54% were totally destroyed, and only 10% not or minorly damaged, for an average damage cost of 3,179 USD/building. For the 212 documented buildings affected by floods, 35% were totally destroyed, 28% had severe to moderate damage and the rest were minorly or not affected, with an average damage costs of 1,755 USD/building. The physical vulnerability of buildings to landslides depends on the size of the landslide, age of the building, type of building wall material and the steepness of the slope cut to establish an artificial foundation platform. On the other hand, the physical vulnerability of buildings to flood hazards is largely controlled by the flood depth, the distance from the river channel, slope, size of flooded area and type of floor material. The physical vulnerability functions developed in this study are being used as a new inputs into a regional quantitative model of geo-hydrological risks. Combining the hazard estimates with the most accurate information on exposure of physical infrastructure, will facilitate the identification of the types of events and the locations that require most attention for risk reduction.

Tropical mountainous regions are commonly identified as landslide hotspots with particularly vulnerable populations. Anthropogenic factors are assumed to play a role in the occurrence and impact of landslides in these populated regions, yet the relative importance of these human-induced factors remains poorly documented. In this work, we explore the impact of forest cover dynamics, agricultural land management practices, urbanisation, roads, and mining/quarrying activities on the occurrence of landslides and their associated risk in the North Tanganyika–Kivu Rift, an area that stretches at the border of four countries in Africa. Using a holistic approach that combines extensive fieldwork, optical and SAR/InSAR satellite remote sensing, time-series analysis, UAS image acquisition, historical photograph processing, citizen science and geomorphic marker understanding, our study demonstrates the role of human activities on the frequency, size and deformation patterns of landslides in the region, in both rural and urban environments. The interaction between uplift associated with the continental rifting in the region, fluvial incision, and the (human-induced) landslides are also key elements that are considered in our analysis. Overall, we highlight the need to consider the human context when studying hillslope instabilities in regions under anthropogenic pressure.

Volcanic edifices are dynamic landforms whose morphology encodes the long-term (thousands to millions of years) interaction between construction and erosion. Short-term episodes of volcanic activity that cumulatively build topography compete with long-term erosive processes associated with climate and mass wasting to degrade edifices, generating a variety of morphologies from simple, cone-like edifices to complex, non-axisymmetric volcanoes. However, separating the signatures of these processes using topography remains elusive as both volcanic and climatic processes are often spatially-heterogeneous and temporally-varying. Despite this, disentangling edifice morphologic histories provide new avenues to better discern an edifice’s volcanic record, assess potential hazards, and quantify the role of climate in landscape evolution.Here, we aim to understand the long-term interaction between volcanic and erosional processes in driving edifice morphology using numerical landscape evolution modeling and comparing modeled landscapes to the morphology of the Kaua`i shield volcano. Kaua`i has been built over the past 5 Myr by series of lava flows that have non-uniformly altered both topography and surface erodibility. Coupled with this, a strong precipitation gradient across the island has influenced basin-scale erosion rates, impacting drainage development and making Kaua`i a natural laboratory to test the effects of spatially- and temporally-varying construction and degradation processes.We analyze the interaction of these processes by first characterizing the impacts of lithology and precipitation gradients on edifice morphologies over 5 Myr timescales by employing the TopoToolbox Landscape Evolution Model. Starting with an initial, simplified edifice geometry, we test the effects of both singular and multiple parameter gradients through space and time over a broad parameter space. We then quantify edifice degredation and evolution using a series of metrics that include topographic hypsometry, basin geometries, drainage density, and , showing that such parameter gradients create asymmetric landforms with spatial heterogeneities related to the geometry and configuration of basins and channel networks. Afterwards, we consider edifice morphologic evolution within the framework of Kaua’i. By constraining the spatiotemporal model parameter configurations with the geologic and precipitation data of the volcano, and comparing modeled landscapes to the current morphology of Kaua’i, we determine likely parameter ranges that contribute to its evolution.

The long-term (ka to ma) degradation of a volcanic edifice is controlled by both regional (e.g., climate, tectonics) and local factors (e.g., original morphology, lithology), resulting in both long-lasting weathering and river incision and short-term hazardous events, such as flank collapses and lahars. Trends among the morphometry of stratovolcanoes, their drainage network, denudation, and regional factors were recently characterised for composite volcanoes along the Indonesian arc. Denudation was shown to be negatively correlated with drainage density; the across-arc variations expose a tectonic control on the level of denudation and volcanoes’ irregularity. This study applies the same method on age-constrained volcanoes in Japan to find coherent trends between arcs despite the different local and regional factors. We aim to better understand the factors that control erosion rates and patterns, and the evolutionary phases of volcano degradation. We first compile a dataset of 35 singular, non-complex composite volcanoes with known eruption ages and spatially spread throughout the Japanese Island arc system. Using 30m TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Models, morphologies, and drainage metrics (e.g., volume, height, slopes, irregularity index, Hack’s Law exponent, and drainage density) are extracted for each volcano, using the MORVOLC algorithm adapted in MATLAB as well as the newly developed DrainageVolc algorithm. Correlations between the morphometric parameters and potential controlling factors (e.g., age, climate, lithology, and tectonics) are analysed to determine quantitative relationships of edifice degradation throughout the arc. Finally, we compare relationships and correlation values of the Japanese Arc system to those from the Indonesian Arc. The analysis shows that volcano age is positively correlated with irregularity and negatively correlated with height and volume. From the drainage parameters, we find that basins become wider and merge, resulting in lower drainage densities. The variation in erosion rates along the Japanese arc provides evidence for the degree of climatic control on the volcano degradation. The between-arc comparison shows which trends are susceptible to arc-scale variations and highlights consistent trends that have the potential to be extrapolated to other volcanic arcs and be used as a relative age determination tool for composite volcanoes.

The Kigezi highlands, southwestern Uganda, is a mountainous tropical region with a high population density, intense rainfall, alternating wet and dry seasons and high weathering rates. As a result, the region is regularly affected by multiple natural hazards such as landslides, floods, heavy storms, and earthquakes. In addition, deforestation and land use changes are assumed to have an influence on the patterns of natural hazards and their impacts in the region. Landscape characteristics and dynamics controlling the occurrence and the spatio-temporal distribution of natural hazards in the region remain poorly understood. In this study, citizen science has been employed to document and understand the spatial and temporal occurrence of natural hazards that affect the Kigezi highlands in relation to the multi-decadal landscape change of the region. We present the methodological research framework involving three categories of participatory citizen scientists. First, a network of 15 geo-observers (i.e., citizens of local communities distributed across representative landscapes of the study area) was established in December 2019. The geo-observers were trained at using smartphones to collect information (processes and impacts) on eight different natural hazards occurring across their parishes. In a second phase, eight river watchers were selected at watershed level to monitor the stream flow characteristics. These watchers record stream water levels once daily and make flood observations. In both categories, validation and quality checks are done on the collected data for further analysis. Combining with high resolution rainfall monitoring using rain gauges installed in the watersheds, the data are expected to characterize catchment response to flash floods. Lastly, to reconstruct the historical landscape change and natural hazards occurrences in the region, 96 elderly citizens (>70 years of age) were engaged through interviews and focus group discussions to give an account of the evolution of their landscape over the past 60 years. We constructed a historical timeline for the region to complement the participatory mapping and in-depth interviews with the elderly citizens. During the first 24 months of the project, 240 natural hazard events with accurate timing information have been reported by the geo-observers. Conversion from natural tree species to exotic species, increased cultivation of hillslopes, road construction and abandonment of terraces and fallowing practices have accelerated natural hazards especially flash floods and landslides in the region. Complementing with the region’s historical photos of 1954 and satellite images, major landscape dynamics have been detected. The ongoing data collection involving detailed ground-based observations with citizens shows a promising trend in the generation of new knowledge about natural hazards in the region.

Ol Doinyo Lengaï (OL) in north Tanzania is the only active volcano in the world emitting natrocarbonatite lavas. This stratovolcano (2962 m a.s.l) is mostly characterized by effusive lava emissions since 1983. However, on the 4th of September 2007, explosive events marked the beginning of a new eruptive style that lasted until April 2008. This new phase involved short-lived explosive eruptions that generated volcanic ash plumes as high as 15 km during its paroxysmal stage. This explosive activity resulted in the formation of a 300 m wide and 130 m deep crater in place of the growing lava platform that had filled the crater since 1983. Since then the effusive activity at OL resumed within the crater and has been partially filling it over the last 14 years. Due to the remote location of the volcano there is a lack of monitoring of its activity and, hence, its eruptive and morphological evolution over the last years is not well constrained (e.g., emission rates, number of vents, unstable areas). This absence of monitoring, preventing the detection of features, such as instabilities of the summit cone, could have hazard implications for the tourists regularly visiting the summit area.In this study, we quantify the evolution of OL crater area over the last 14 years by reconstructing its topography at regular time interval. We collated several sources of optical images including Unoccupied Aircraft Systems (UAS) images, videos and ground-based pictures that have been collected over the period 2008-2021 by scientists and tourists. Those data have been sorted by year and quality in order to reconstruct the most accurate topographical models using Agisoft Metashape Pro, a software for Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and CloudCompare a 3D point cloud processing software. This enables estimating the emitted volume of lava, the emission rate and the remaining crater volume available before crater overflow. It also allows identifying punctual events, such as hornito formation or destruction, and partial crater collapses. Our results indicate that the main lava emission area has repeatedly moved over the years within the crater floor and that OL’s effusion rate has been increasing over the last few years, with more than two times higher lava emission in the period 2019-2021 compared to 2017-2019. Assuming a similar lava effusion rate in the coming years, the crater could again be filled within the next decade leading to new lava overflows. There is thus a need for periodic assessment of the situation at OL. New cost- and time-effective photogrammetry techniques, including UAS and SfM processing, offer a solution to improve the monitoring of such remote volcanoes.

Risk management is used in societies to mitigate the potentially dramatic effects of natural hazards. Local authorities and managers use different indicators in elaborating rescue and urbanism plans, which are not always efficient in reducing impact in the time of the crisis. This highlights society’s vulnerability in the particular context of global environmental and climate changes. This interdisciplinary research aimed at identifying reliable risk indicators and societal responses regarding natural hazards and climate change impacts, to provide a governance framework for disaster risk reduction. Different societies face diverse risks and do not necessarily have the same level of local awareness confronting them. Two sites were thus selected from the Mediterranean basin, one from the South coast (North Morocco), other from the North coast (the Italian island of Sardinia). North Morocco, the region of multi-risks, is characterized by high demographic and economic pressures; West Sardinia counts for remarkable biodiversity of wetlands and is characterized by high environmental and agricultural pressures, which in both cases intensify the vulnerability of the coastal areas. Testing for the local population’s preparedness for future financial protection showed the importance of risk awareness sessions as an indicator of risk management. The significance of risk awareness sessions is demonstrated in a quantitative part of the study with the local population, and their importance is also discussed with other stakeholders in North Morocco in a qualitative part of the study. Based on these findings, further ideas on a new series of less descriptive, more dynamic, and more user-friendly indicators are suggested. How can risk sessions be a dynamic indicator of a resilient society? The obtained results could serve in future governance frameworks for the mitigation of natural hazards in the Mediterranean region and wider. Finally, the urgent need for continuous work to overcome the communication gap between the scientific community, risk administrators, civil society and the general population is encouraged.

Uganda is regularly affected by multiple natural hazards, including floods, droughts, earthquakes, landslides and windstorms. This is due to a combination of natural biophysical factors such as steep topography, intense rainfall, variability of dry and rain seasons and high weathering rates. In addition, high population density, deforestation and other human-induced land use changes, and high poverty levels are believed to have an influence on the patterns of natural hazards and their impacts in the region. Despite this, there are limited studies that assess where and when natural hazards occur in Uganda, and a dearth of information on the processes involved. In addition, drivers and earth/landscape characteristics controlling the occurrence of natural hazards in the country remain poorly understood despite the high need for effective disaster risk reduction. Here, we present the ongoing methodological research framework and the first results of a study whose main objective is to understand the spatial and temporal occurrence of natural hazards that affect the Kigezi Highlands of south western Uganda and their interactions. To this end, the study is undertaking a comprehensive regional hazard inventory consisting of satellite image analysis, field surveys and exploration of literature and archives. Historical aerial photos and interviews with the elderly are important tools to analyze the impact of multi-decadal human-induced land use changes on natural hazard occurrences. Meanwhile, a network of 15 geo-observers, i.e. citizens of local communities distributed across representative landscapes of the study area, was established in December 2019. Trained at using smartphone technology, they collect information (processes and impacts) on seven different natural hazards (droughts, earthquakes, floods, hailstorms, landslides, lightning, and windstorms) whenever they occur. During the first 12 months, 204 natural hazard events with accurate timing information have been reported by the geo-observers. Combined to field survey, these recent events have been associated mainly with the occurrence of > 3000 shallow landslides and 30 floods, frequently in co-occurrence and triggered by heavy rainfall. Additional inventory from Google Earth and Planet imagery covering a region much larger than that of the geo-observer network and a time window of more than 10 years shows an extra 230 landslide and flood occurrences, while archives and literature indicate 226 natural hazard events over the last 30 years. The preliminary results already demonstrate the value of citizen-science in producing highly detailed natural hazard inventory. A combination of different inventory methods improves the level of accuracy in understanding the spatial-temporal distribution of natural hazards.

The city of Goma is located in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo. With around one million inhabitants, it is built on lava flows, 15 km south of the active Nyiragongo volcano. Historically, the town was affected twice by eruptions, in 1977 and 2002 and severe destructions were reported. At that time, no volcanic risk preparedness and management tools had been implemented, and communication during and after the eruption was not consistent enough to avoid panic and human casualties. Without an appropriate and accurate risk communication, people may adopt a behavior which can put them at risk, by increasing their vulnerability. Nineteen years after the last disaster, risk management still have to develop an effective risk preparedness strategy and integrate risk awareness raising tools. The aim of this ongoing doctoral research is the assessment of risk culture, building upon a risk perception assessment and identification of risk reduction measures to be enhanced.A survey of 2224 adults among the general population of Goma was conducted in eight representative neighborhoods in order to assess the risk perception, the experience of the risk communication as well as the risk preparedness of inhabitants. We here present a first analysis of the results regarding the risk communication challenges. Goma is a dynamic town with a young population (80% are under 45 years old), living in relatively poor and large family (51% of households have 4-7 members and 31% 8-11 members; 57% of household have an income between 0-250$), with rather low education (47% is secondary level and 34% graduated). Language is one of the volcanic risk communication challenges in Goma: apart from French as the official language, Swahili as local, and English imposed by the large humanitarian sector, there are many dialects. Moreover, most communication tools are informal (social networks, friends and relatives…) and inhabitants mostly look for information on religion (22%), health (15%) and politics (12%), but not so much about risk reduction. Local radio (24%), television (14,5%) and social networks (13%) are the most preferred information channels. The city of Goma is also very dynamic: with a high migration rate, the population is growing and renewing itself regularly, to the point that risk communication must take into account the newcomers in order to be efficient. Additionally, our survey shows that experience of disasters and trust in decision-makers also provide a basis for effective risk communication.By presenting, as examples, the communication chain during the 2002 Nyiragongo eruption, as well as a more recent example of miscommunication due to the publication, in the general public press, of a scientific article with significant uncertainties in eruption forecast modelling (leading to misinterpretation by non-expert readers), we will demonstrate that the cascading reactions may have consequences putting risk decision-makers and scientists in a difficult position, by provoking a feeling of mistrust and doubt among the population. Based on the Goma case study, we will show that risk communication in the global south is a major risk management challenge with complex issues.

Volcano morphometry provides evidence for the magmatic and tectonic factors that control the growth of edifices and their spatial distribution in volcanic fields. We identified 731 volcanic edifices in the Philippine island arc using SRTM 30 m digital elevation models, and quantitatively described their morphology using the MORVOLC algorithm and their spatial distribution using Matlab GIAS and three-point analysis codes. A hierarchical classification by principal component analysis (HCPC) was used to morphometrically classify the edifices into four classes, which we interpret as small flat cones, small steep cones, large cones, and massifs. This classification is mainly based on edifice size and irregularity (PC1) and steepness (mean slope and height/basal width ratio; PC2), and to a lesser extent on the size of the summit region and edifice truncation (PC3), and edifice elongation (PC4). Both small flat cones and small steep cones have volumes of 3 with means of 3. The small flat cones have mean slopes of 3 (mean = 29 km3), whereas massifs have larger volumes: between 76 and 675 km3 (mean = 267 km3). Both classes have similar mean slopes with overall means of 15°.The morphometric classification, complemented by previously published geochemical data from some edifices, indicates continuous variation between volcano classes, which represent stages along an evolutionary trend. The small flat cones are mostly monogenetic, whereas the small steep cones represent an early growth stage of stratovolcanoes. Some small cones develop into large polygenetic cones, and these can grow laterally into massifs. Both large cones and massifs are mostly found on thickened crust. There is a trend towards more silicic compositions from small to large cones, perhaps due to larger edifice loads preventing mafic dykes from reaching the surface, that in turn drives magmatic evolution. More evolved and explosive magmas cause more silicic volcanoes to be less steep than andesitic volcanoes. The distribution and alignment of smaller edifices within eight volcanic fields shows that the dominant regional or local stress conditions and pre-existing structures influenced magma propagation and their spatial distribution. Associating morphometric classification with the stages of volcano growth will help in the initial assessment of the factors controlling volcano evolution, which might impact our assessment of hazards related to volcanoes.

Lake Abaya and Lake Chamo are located within the rift valley that cuts across eastern Ethiopia. Severe soil erosion, predominantly gully erosion in the midlands and highlands, and flash flooding along rivers in the lowlands resulted in sediment and nutrient accumulation in the rift lakes. In this study, conducted in four river catchments on the Western border of the Abaya-Chamo rift, an inventory of gully channels is made and factors controlling the location of gullies are analysed. The inventory, which was prepared using Google Earth imagery and field surveys, consists of 7336 gullies over a study area of 1050 km², resulting in a high average gully density (1.56 km.km-²) with specifically high densities (3.74 km.km-²) in the Northern Shafé river catchment. Of all mapped gullies, 56% show signs of active erosion (i.e. mostly bare gully walls and bed, and/or fresh sediments deposited in the lower parts of the gully). In order to reduce the effects of gully erosion, it is vital to understand the factors controlling gully initiation and locations most susceptible to develop new gullies. Instead of using gully head, which due to head cut retreat might not be representative of the characteristics of the gully initiation point, a slope-area threshold (SA) is used to identify the most probable gully initiation point along existing gullies. The spatial susceptibility of these sites to gully initiation is then modelled using the frequency ratio and logistic regression methods using a set of 15 geo-environmental variables related to topography, soil texture, geology, rivers, knickpoints and land cover, as potential controlling factors. Active and inactive gullies are modelled separately. Slope, type of lithology, location of knickpoint rejuvenating the landscape through channel incision, distance from roads and mean annual rainfall are identified as very important controlling factors of gully initiation sites. The most susceptible gully erosion areas are observed in the steep midland, where limited population is living, and bare land and rangeland is dominant. The results show that the models are reliable and have a good prediction performance of gully initiation when using an independent validation dataset. The produced gully susceptibility maps highlight locations where soil and water conservation or other sustainable planning actions are required. Such maps are also needed to estimate the long-term contribution of gullies to the sediments delivered to the Abaya-Chamo Lakes.

Volcanoes are extremely dynamic landforms. They grow by the accumulation of eruptive products and intrusions and degrade by a range of erosion processes such as superficial runoff, chemical and physical weathering, fluvial and glacial incision, and mass movements. In this study, we aim at documenting and quantifying the morphology of natural composite volcanoes using a range of morphometric indices, to better understand the factors that control erosion rates and patterns.In addition to standard morphometric indices, including edifice ellipticity and irregularity, computed by the MORVOLC algorithm, a fractal dimension tool is developed to quantitatively report the shape complexity of stratovolcanoes. A convex hull approach is used to derive minimal erosion volumes and estimate erosion rates, considering available geochronological constraints. Morphometric parameters are derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) for a few exemplary stratovolcanoes of contrasted ages from the same volcanic region. To analyse the potential bias induced by the selected DEMs and the identification of the volcanic edifice outline, we also conduct a sensitivity analysis. The morphometric parameters are similarly extracted using the freely and globally available ALOS 30m (AW3D30), SRTM 30m (SRTMGL1), and ASTER 30m (GDEM 003), and compared to values obtained with the TanDEM-X 12m. The subjective user-drawn edifice outlines are compared to outlines generated by available algorithms, i.e. NETVOLC and MBOA, and their impact on the accuracy of morphometric indexes is quantified. Our results highlight that erosion increases edifice irregularity and fractal dimension. Preliminary trends between volcano fractal dimension, eroded volume, and age suggest that fractal analysis has the potential to be used as a relative age determination tool. The proposed morphometric characterisation paves the way for a comparison between natural volcanoes and controlled lab experiments reproducing the degradation of pristine volcanic cones by surface runoff to be developed later in our project.

Accurate and complete inventory of natural hazard occurrence and their level of impact is a key first step to risk assessment, but it remains a challenge, especially for high frequency low impact events that rarely makes it to the news media. This challenge is even greater in rural areas of developing countries such as Uganda, where limited IT facilities prevent dissemination of information through social media. Here we report on a citizen-science initiative to monitor small-scale disasters (landslides and floods) occurring in the Rwenzori Mountains. A network of citizen (geo-)observers was established in February 2017 to collect temporally explicit geo-referenced information on eight different hazards and their impact using smartphone technology. Since then, over 500 hazard occurrences have been reported. However, such dataset needs to be assessed for its accuracy and potential biases before being used for scientific analysis. In this study, we evaluate the accuracy and completeness of the geo-observer-based disaster reports. First, systematic errors are reduced by peer reviewing the reports and implementing automatic tests to assess potential errors in detection and biases. Then, we compare the geo-observer-based records with two independent inventories collected through systematic field mapping and satellite imagery mapping, focusing on landslide and flood events for the period between May 2019 and May 2020. Results show over 95% of the geo-observer reports validated in the field were correctly identified and recorded less than 5 days after the occurrence (60% true positives, 1% false positives and 39% false negatives). For the satellite imagery mapping, 29% were true positives, 43% false positives and 28% false negatives. Geo-observers provide near real time disaster information on the location and level of impact, something difficult to achieve with systematic field and satellite imagery mapping. Depending on the topography of the area and the weather conditions, it can take several days to weeks before a cloud-free satellite image of a place can be obtained. The false negatives in the Geo-observer data are due to the tendency to report mainly occurrences along roads and rural foot paths since such occurrences are easily seen and accessed. Isolated small and inaccessible landslides are often not seen or reported to the Geo-observers. While satellite imagery mapping provides an opportunity to record disaster occurrences even in extremely inaccessible places, small landslides are often missed while shallow ones can easily be confused with freshly cleared vegetation for crop planting. Citizen science-based disaster reporting therefore not only provide the spatial occurrence of disasters but also the temporal and weather-related information, necessary for disaster risk analysis.

Effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) presupposes awareness among key stakeholders on the causal factors that exacerbate disaster risks as well as a feeling of ownership over proposed DRR measures. Yet, the prevailing top-down communication of risk and the expert-centered knowledge have a limited impact in bringing significant positive change. Serious games respond to the need for a community-based DRR approach as they encourage a collective recognition of societal issues and co-learning at the different levels of the DRR governance system. However, there is still a gap in understanding how serious games facilitate co-creation of knowledge. In this article, we first introduce a serious game, called DisCoord, as a public pedagogy tool that bridges diverse views and sets of knowledge of DRR stakeholders separated by spatial and socio-cultural domains. Second, through a qualitative method of analysis of the 10 game sessions in Uganda, we examine the factors and processes that influence knowledge co-creation. The game actors – game designers, game facilitators and players – primarily steer and influence the co-creation process. These actors have diverse pre-game views, which are expressed through the game rules, arguments, game strategies, and game outcomes, and are confronted within the public space provided by the game. We find that crises experienced during the game, real-life based arguments provided by the players and own interpretations by the players are key factors in the co-creation process. This study leads us to conclude that games like DisCoord are useful as public pedagogy intervention as they bring different forms of knowledge together in a public space and facilitate co-learning. This paper also contends that countering a top-down approach of risk communication using a public pedagogy approach requires an openness towards the unpredictable, de-centered DRR, and plural co-learning outcomes.

While the behaviour of slow-moving landslides – response to seasonal precipitation, seismic shaking, etc. – is well described in natural mountainous environments, little is known on the influence of urbanisation on their dynamics. Yet, gradual urbanisation of hillslopes is commonplace in the outskirts of many cities of the tropics. Typically anarchic, construction on previously undisturbed slopes often initiates or enhances landslide activity, rapidly increasing the number of people exposed to landslide hazard. Aiming at studying how landslides respond to their progressive urbanisation, we here present a detailed analysis of the dynamics of a large, thousand-year-old slow-moving landslide located in the rapidly expanding city of Bukavu (eastern DR Congo). This slope failure developed in highly weathered lava layers hosts today more than 80 000 inhabitants; for many affected by incessant destruction of infrastructures and housing.We used 4 years of temporally dense 3D kinematic data from satellite interferometry (MSBAS 3D), pixel tracking on satellite and Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) orthomosaics and aerial photograph analysis to examine the relationships between urbanisation, landslide activity and rainfall and seismic patterns. We found a closely tied relationship between subsurface pore-water pressure changes and surface velocities. Seasonal rainfalls are driving the kinematics of the landslide at the weekly timescale, despite the large (~30-100 m) depth of the landslide. Analysing landslide dynamics over the last 60 years, we observed an increased activity over a zone of the landslide that will rapidly become the fastest landslide unit. This destabilisation occurred in the ‘90s, alongside an intensification of the (informal) urbanisation of the hillslope, at a time when region’s violent conflicts and insecurity drove important rural-urban migration. Still the most active today, this landslide unit moves at paces of 0.5-3 meters per year, causing significant and persistent damages to infrastructures. We here argue that changes in water runoff, concentration and infiltration due to the anarchic and poorly maintained urban extension is modifying the long-term behaviour of the landside, rather than overloading due to buildings (often light and wooden structures) and infrastructures. The very quick response to pore pressure changes could also be associated to the dense urban fabric, even though the tropical characteristics of this environment (wet-dry seasons, high rainfall, very high weathering) should not be ignored. Our analysis help improve the evaluation of landslide hazard and mitigation in the area, but also across the other many cities of the tropics where similar environmental and societal conditions are met. These findings also have implications for our understanding of landslide dynamics and how humans are interfering with landscape evolution.

Development of hazard maps is one of the measures promoted by the international community to reduce risk. Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas to be affected by one or several hazards. As such they are useful tools to evaluate risk and support the development of safe policies. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In hazardous environments, accessibility of the population to strategic infrastructure is important because emergency services and goods will principally be offered at or provided from these locations. If a road segment is blocked by a hazard, accessibility to services may be affected, or worse, people may be completely disconnected from specific services. The importance of each road segment in the transport network as a connecting element enabling access to relevant services is therefore critical information for the authorities. In this study, we propose a new application of hazard mapping which aims to define the importance of each road segment in the accessibility to services, taking in account the probability of being affected by a hazard. By iteratively removing one segment after the other from the road network, changes in accessibility to critical infrastructure are evaluated. Two metrics of road segment importance considering the population affected and the hazard probability are calculated for each segment: a road accessibility risk metric and a users' path vulnerability metric. Visualization of these road metrics is a useful way of valuing hazard maps and may help to support discussions about the development of new infrastructure, road capacity increase and maintenance of existing infrastructures, and evacuation procedures.

Natural disasters are too often presented as resulting from extreme natural phenomena affecting helpless populations, with people being insufficiently aware of the factors leading to disasters and of the existing strategies to mitigate their impacts. We developed a board game aimed at raising awareness about geohazards and disaster risk reduction strategies. The target groups are (1) secondary school students and citizens and (2) scientists and stakeholders involved in risk management activities. For the first group, the aim is to induce a better understanding of the geohazards and disasters they are confronted with in the media or in their daily lives; for the second, the objective is to generate discussion about risk management strategies. The game was tested with students in Belgium and with citizens, earth scientists, and risk managers in several African countries. Based on analysis of the most common game strategies observed, the players' reactions during the game, and their answers to a short questionnaire, we analyzed the main learning outcomes conveyed by this game. The game Hazagora appears to positively enhance the players' insights into processes involved in disasters. As such, the game is an effective, fun learning tool to introduce participants to the concepts of geohazards and disasters and to generate discussion.

The inhabited zone of the Ugandan Rwenzori Mountains is affected by landslides, frequently causing loss of life, damage to infrastructure and loss of livelihood. This area of ca. 1230 km2 is characterized by contrasting geomorphologic, climatic and lithological patterns, resulting in different landslide types. In this study, the spatial pattern of landslide susceptibility is investigated based on an extensive field inventory constructed for five representative areas within the region (153 km2) and containing over 450 landslides. To achieve a reliable susceptibility assessment, the effects of (1) using different topographic data sources and spatial resolutions and (2) changing the scale of assessment by comparing local and regional susceptibility models on the susceptibility model performances are investigated using a pixel-based logistic regression approach. Topographic data are extracted from different digital elevation models (DEMs) based on radar interferometry (SRTM and TanDEM-X) and optical stereophotogrammetry (ASTER DEM). Susceptibility models using the radar-based DEMs tend to outperform the ones using the ASTER DEM. The model spatial resolution is varied between 10, 20, 30 and 90 m. The optimal resolution depends on the location of the investigated area within the region but the lowest model resolution (90 m) rarely yields the best model performances while the highest model resolution (10 m) never results in significant increases in performance compared to the 20 m resolution. Models built for the local case studies generally have similar or better performances than the regional model and better reflect site-specific controlling factors. At the regional level the effect of distinguishing landslide types between shallow and deep-seated landslides is investigated. The separation of landslide types allows us to improve model performances for the prediction of deep-seated landslides and to better understand factors influencing the occurrence of shallow landslides such as tangent curvature and total rainfall. Finally, the landslide susceptibility assessment is overlaid with a population density map in order to identify potential landslide risk hotspots, which could direct research and policy action towards reduced landslide risk in this under-researched, landslide-prone region., Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18 (1), ISSN:1561-8633, ISSN:1684-9981