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The pathways and timing of drainage from the inundated centers of ice-wedge polygons in a warming climate have important implications for carbon flushing, advective heat transport, and transitions from methane to carbon dioxide dominated emissions. Here, we expand on previous research using a recently developed analytical model of drainage from a low-centered polygon. Specifically, we perform (1) a calibration to field data identifying necessary model refinements and (2) a rigorous model sensitivity analysis that expands on previously published indications of polygon drainage characteristics. This research provides intuition on inundated polygon drainage by presenting the first in-depth analysis of drainage within a polygon based on hydrogeological first principles. We verify a recently developed analytical solution of polygon drainage through a calibration to a season of field measurements. Due to the parsimony of the model, providing the potential that it could fail, we identify the minimum necessary refinements that allow the model to match water levels measured in a low-centered polygon. We find that (1) the measured precipitation must be increased by a factor of around 2.2, and (2) the vertical soil hydraulic conductivity must decrease with increasing thaw depth. Model refinement (1) accounts for runoff from rims into the ice-wedge polygon pond during precipitation events and possible rain gauge undercatch, while refinement (2) accounts for the decreasing permeability of deeper soil layers. The calibration to field measurements supports the validity of the model, indicating that it is able to represent ice-wedge polygon drainage dynamics. We then use the analytical solution in non-dimensional form to provide a baseline for the effects of polygon aspect ratios (radius to thaw depth) and coefficient of hydraulic conductivity anisotropy (horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity) on drainage pathways and temporal depletion of ponded water from inundated ice-wedge polygon centers. By varying the polygon aspect ratio, we evaluate the relative effect of polygon size (width), inter-annual increases in active-layer thickness, and seasonal increases in thaw depth on drainage. The results of our sensitivity analysis rigorously confirm a previous analysis indicating that most drainage through the active layer occurs along an annular region of the polygon center near the rims. This has important implications for transport of nutrients (such as dissolved organic carbon) and advection of heat towards ice-wedge tops. We also provide a comprehensive investigation of the effect of polygon aspect ratio and anisotropy on drainage timing and patterns, expanding on previously published research. Our results indicate that polygons with large aspect ratios and high anisotropy will have the most distributed drainage, while polygons with large aspect ratios and low anisotropy will have their drainage most focused near their periphery and will drain most slowly. Polygons with small aspect ratios and high anisotropy will drain most quickly. These results, based on parametric investigation of idealized scenarios, provide a baseline for further research considering the geometric and hydraulic complexities of ice-wedge polygons.

The risk of carbon emissions from permafrost ground is linked to ground temperature and thus in particular to thermal insulation by vegetation and organic soil layers in summer and snow cover in winter. This ground insulation is strongly influenced by the presence of large herbivorous animals browsing for food. In this study, we examine the potential impact of large herbivore presence on the ground carbon storage in thermokarst landscapes of northeastern Siberia. Our aim is to understand how intensive animal grazing may affect permafrost thaw and hence organic matter decomposition, leading to different ground carbon storage, which is significant in the active layer. Therefore, we analysed sites with differing large herbivore grazing intensity in the Pleistocene Park near Chersky and measured maximum thaw depth, total organic carbon content and decomposition state by δ13C isotope analysis. In addition, we determined sediment grain size composition as well as ice and water content. We found the thaw depth to be shallower and carbon storage to be higher in intensively grazed areas compared to extensively and non-grazed sites in the same thermokarst basin. The intensive grazing presumably leads to a more stable thermal ground regime and thus to increased carbon storage in the thermokarst deposits and active layer. However, the high carbon content found within the upper 20 cm on intensively grazed sites could also indicate higher carbon input rather than reduced decomposition, which requires further studies. We connect our findings to more animal trampling in winter, which causes snow disturbance and cooler winter ground temperatures during the average annual 225 days below freezing. This winter cooling overcompensates ground warming due to the lower insulation associated with shorter heavily grazed vegetation during the average annual 140 thaw days. We conclude that intensive grazing influences the carbon storage capacities of permafrost areas and hence might be an actively manageable instrument to reduce net carbon emission from these sites.

The response of CH4 emission from natural wetlands due to meteorological conditions is important because of its strong greenhouse effect. To understand the relationship between CH4 flux and wetting, we observed interannual variations in chamber CH4 flux, as well as the concentration, δ13C , and δD of dissolved CH4 during the summer from 2009 to 2013 at the taiga–tundra boundary in the vicinity of Chokurdakh (70 ∘ 37 ′ N, 147 ∘ 55 ′ E), located on the lowlands of the Indigirka River in northeastern Siberia. We also conducted soil incubation experiments to interpret δ13C and δD of dissolved CH4 and to investigate variations in CH4 production and oxidation processes. Methane flux showed large interannual variations in wet areas of sphagnum mosses and sedges (36–140 mg CH4 m −2 day −1 emitted). Increased CH4 emission was recorded in the summer of 2011 when a wetting event with extreme precipitation occurred. Although water level decreased from 2011 to 2013, CH4 emission remained relatively high in 2012, and increased further in 2013. Thaw depth became deeper from 2011 to 2013, which may partly explain the increase in CH4 emission. Moreover, dissolved CH4 concentration rose sharply by 1 order of magnitude from 2011 to 2012, and increased further from 2012 to 2013. Large variations in δ13C and δD of dissolved CH4 were observed in 2011, and smaller variations were seen in 2012 and 2013, suggesting both enhancement of CH4 production and less significance of CH4 oxidation relative to the larger pool of dissolved CH4 . These multi-year effects of wetting on CH4 dynamics may have been caused by continued soil reduction across multiple years following the wetting. Delayed activation of acetoclastic methanogenesis following soil reduction could also have contributed to the enhancement of CH4 production. These processes suggest that duration of water saturation in the active layer can be important for predicting CH4 emission following a wetting event in the permafrost ecosystem.

The pathways and timing of drainage from inundated ice-wedge polygon centers in a warming climate have important implications for carbon flushing, advective heat transport, and transitions from carbon dioxide to methane dominated emissions. This research helps to understand this process by providing the first in-depth analysis of drainage from a single polygon based on fundamental hydrogeological principles. We use a recently developed analytical solution to evaluate the effects of polygon aspect ratios (radius to thawed depth) and hydraulic conductivity anisotropy (horizontal to vertical hydraulic conductivity) on drainage pathways and temporal depletion of ponded water heights of inundated ice-wedge polygon centers. By varying the polygon aspect ratio, we evaluate the effect of polygon size (width), inter-annual increases in active layer thickness, and seasonal increases in thaw depth on drainage. One of the primary insights from the model is that most inundated ice-wedge polygon drainage occurs along an annular region of the polygon center near the rims. This implies that inundated polygons are most intensely flushed by drainage in an annular region along their horizontal periphery, with implications for transport of nutrients (such as dissolved organic carbon) and advection of heat towards ice wedge tops. The model indicates that polygons with large aspect ratios and high anisotropy will have the most distributed drainage. Polygons with large aspect ratio and low anisotropy will have their drainage most focused near the their periphery and will drain most slowly. Polygons with small aspect ratio and high anisotropy will drain most quickly.

Over the past decades, vegetation and climate have changed significantly in the Arctic. Deciduous shrub cover is often assumed to expand in tundra landscapes, but more frequent abrupt permafrost thaw resulting in formation of thaw ponds could lead to vegetation shifts towards graminoid-dominated wetland. Which factors drive vegetation changes in the tundra ecosystem are still not sufficiently clear. In this study, the dynamic tundra vegetation model, NUCOM-tundra (NUtrient and COMpetition), was used to evaluate the consequences of climate change scenarios of warming and increasing precipitation for future tundra vegetation change. The model includes three plant functional types (moss, graminoids and shrubs), carbon and nitrogen cycling, water and permafrost dynamics and a simple thaw pond module. Climate scenario simulations were performed for 16 combinations of temperature and precipitation increases in five vegetation types representing a gradient from dry shrub-dominated to moist mixed and wet graminoid-dominated sites. Vegetation composition dynamics in currently mixed vegetation sites were dependent on both temperature and precipitation changes, with warming favouring shrub dominance and increased precipitation favouring graminoid abundance. Climate change simulations based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios in which temperature and precipitation increases were combined showed increases in biomass of both graminoids and shrubs, with graminoids increasing in abundance. The simulations suggest that shrub growth can be limited by very wet soil conditions and low nutrient supply, whereas graminoids have the advantage of being able to grow in a wide range of soil moisture conditions and have access to nutrients in deeper soil layers. Abrupt permafrost thaw initiating thaw pond formation led to complete domination of graminoids. However, due to increased drainage, shrubs could profit from such changes in adjacent areas. Both climate and thaw pond formation simulations suggest that a wetter tundra can be responsible for local shrub decline instead of shrub expansion.

Low-center polygonal terrains with gentle sloping surfaces and lowlands in the high Arctic have a potential to retain water in the lower central portion of ice-wedge polygons and are considered high-latitude wetlands. Such wetlands in the continuous permafrost regions have an important ecological role in an otherwise generally arid region. In the valley of the glacier C-79 on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada), thermal erosion gullies were rapidly eroding the permafrost along ice wedges affecting the integrity of the polygons by breaching and collapsing the surrounding rims. Intact polygons were characterized by a relative homogeneity in terms of topography, snow cover, maximum active layer thaw depth, ground moisture content and vegetation cover (where eroded polygons responded nonlinearly to perturbations, which resulted in differing conditions in the latter elements). The heterogeneous nature of disturbed terrains impacted active layer thickness, ground ice aggradation in the upper portion of permafrost, soil moisture, vegetation dynamics and carbon storage.

Northern peatlands in permafrost regions contain a large amount of organic carbon (C) in the soil. Climate warming and associated permafrost degradation are expected to have significant impacts on the C balance of these ecosystems, but the magnitude is uncertain. We incorporated a permafrost model, Northern Ecosystem Soil Temperature (NEST), into a biogeochemical model, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC), to model C dynamics in high-latitude peatland ecosystems. The enhanced model was applied to assess effects of permafrost thaw on C fluxes of a subarctic peatland at Stordalen, Sweden. DNDC simulated soil freeze–thaw dynamics, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), and CH4 fluxes across three typical land cover types, which represent a gradient in the process of ongoing permafrost thaw at Stordalen. Model results were compared with multiyear field measurements, and the validation indicates that DNDC was able to simulate observed differences in seasonal soil thaw, NEE, and CH4 fluxes across the three land cover types. Consistent with the results from field studies, the modeled C fluxes across the permafrost thaw gradient demonstrate that permafrost thaw and the associated changes in soil hydrology and vegetation not only increase net uptake of C from the atmosphere but also increase the annual to decadal radiative forcing impacts on climate due to increased CH4 emissions. This study indicates the potential of utilizing biogeochemical models, such as DNDC, to predict the soil thermal regime in permafrost areas and to investigate impacts of permafrost thaw on ecosystem C fluxes after incorporating a permafrost component into the model framework.

Multi-channel ground-penetrating radar was applied at a permafrost site on the Tibetan Plateau to investigate the influence of surface properties and soil texture on the late-summer thaw depth and average soil moisture content of the active layer. Measurements were conducted on an approximately 85×60 m2 sized area with surface and soil textural properties that ranged from medium to coarse textured bare soil to finer textured, vegetated areas covered with fine, wind blown sand, and it included the bed of a gravel road. The survey allowed a clear differentiation of the various units. It showed (i) a shallow thaw depth and low average soil moisture content below the sand-covered, vegetated area, (ii) an intermediate thaw depth and high average soil moisture content along the gravel road, and (iii) an intermediate to deep thaw depth and low to intermediate average soil moisture content in the bare soil terrain. From our measurements, we found plausible hypotheses for the permafrost processes at this site leading to the observed late-summer thaw depth and soil moisture conditions. The study clearly indicates the complicated interactions between surface and subsurface state variables and processes in this environment. In addition, the survey demonstrates the potential of multi-channel ground-penetrating radar to efficiently map thaw depth and soil moisture content of the active layer with high spatial resolution at scales from a few meters to a few kilometers.

Infiltration into frozen and unfrozen soils is critical in hydrology, controlling active layer soil water dynamics and influencing runoff. Few Land Surface Models (LSMs) and Hydrological Models (HMs) have been developed, adapted or tested for frozen conditions and permafrost soils. Considering the vast geographical area influenced by freeze/thaw processes and permafrost, and the rapid environmental change observed worldwide in these regions, a need exists to improve models to better represent their hydrology. In this study, various infiltration algorithms and parameterisation methods, which are commonly employed in current LSMs and HMs were tested against detailed measurements at three sites in Canada's discontinuous permafrost region with organic soil depths ranging from 0.02 to 3 m. Field data from two consecutive years were used to calibrate and evaluate the infiltration algorithms and parameterisations. Important conclusions include: (1) the single most important factor that controls the infiltration at permafrost sites is ground thaw depth, (2) differences among the simulated infiltration by different algorithms and parameterisations were only found when the ground was frozen or during the initial fast thawing stages, but not after ground thaw reaches a critical depth of 15 to 30 cm, (3) despite similarities in simulated total infiltration after ground thaw reaches the critical depth, the choice of algorithm influenced the distribution of water among the soil layers, and (4) the ice impedance factor for hydraulic conductivity, which is commonly used in LSMs and HMs, may not be necessary once the water potential driven frozen soil parameterisation is employed. Results from this work provide guidelines that can be directly implemented in LSMs and HMs to improve their application in organic covered permafrost soils.

The tundra ecosystem is quite vulnerable to drastic climate change in the Arctic, and the quantification of carbon dynamics is of significant importance regarding thawing permafrost, changes to the snow-covered period and snow and shrub community extent, and the decline of sea ice in the Arctic. Here, CO2 efflux measurements using a manual chamber system within a 40 m × 40 m (5 m interval; 81 total points) plot were conducted within dominant tundra vegetation on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, during the growing seasons of 2011 and 2012, for the assessment of driving parameters of CO2 efflux. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) model – a function of soil temperature, soil moisture, vegetation type, and thaw depth – to quantify the effects of environmental factors on CO2 efflux and to estimate growing season CO2 emissions. Our results showed that average CO2 efflux in 2011 was 1.4 times higher than in 2012, resulting from the distinct difference in soil moisture between the 2 years. Tussock-dominated CO2 efflux is 1.4 to 2.3 times higher than those measured in lichen and moss communities, revealing tussock as a significant CO2 source in the Arctic, with a wide area distribution on the circumpolar scale. CO2 efflux followed soil temperature nearly exponentially from both the observed data and the posterior medians of the HB model. This reveals that soil temperature regulates the seasonal variation of CO2 efflux and that soil moisture contributes to the interannual variation of CO2 efflux for the two growing seasons in question. Obvious changes in soil moisture during the growing seasons of 2011 and 2012 resulted in an explicit difference between CO2 effluxes – 742 and 539 g CO2 m−2 period−1 for 2011 and 2012, respectively, suggesting the 2012 CO2 emission rate was reduced to 27% (95% credible interval: 17–36%) of the 2011 emission, due to higher soil moisture from severe rain. The estimated growing season CO2 emission rate ranged from 0.86 Mg CO2 in 2012 to 1.20 Mg CO2 in 2011 within a 40 m × 40 m plot, corresponding to 86 and 80% of annual CO2 emission rates within the western Alaska tundra ecosystem, estimated from the temperature dependence of CO2 efflux. Therefore, this HB model can be readily applied to observed CO2 efflux, as it demands only four environmental factors and can also be effective for quantitatively assessing the driving parameters of CO2 efflux.

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Quegan, S. Lomas, M. Zakharova, E. Zakharova, Elena/N-7731-2013 Zakharova, Elena/0000-0002-2962-1439 EU [242446, 295068] This study was supported by the EU FP7 project Monarch-A (grant no. 242446), Monitoring and assessing regional climate change in high latitudes and the Arctic, and the EU FP7 project EuRuCAS (grant no. 295068), European-Russian Centre for cooperation in the Arctic and sub-Arctic environmental and climate research. 0 COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH GOTTINGEN CRYOSPHERE; An increasing number of studies have demonstrated significant climatic and ecological changes occurring in the northern latitudes over the past decades. As coupled Earth-system models attempt to describe and simulate the dynamics and complex feedbacks of the Arctic environment, it is important to reduce their uncertainties in short-term predictions by improving the description of both system processes and its initial state. This study focuses on snow-related variables and makes extensive use of a historical data set (1966-1996) of field snow measurements acquired across the extent of the former Soviet Union to evaluate a range of simulated snow metrics produced by several land surface models, most of them embedded in IPCC-standard climate models. We reveal model-specific failings in simulating snowpack properties such as magnitude, inter-annual variability, timings of snow water equivalent and evolution of snow density. We develop novel and model-independent methodologies that use the field snow measurements to extract the values of fresh snow density and snowpack sublimation, and exploit them to assess model outputs. By directly forcing the surface heat exchange formulation of a land surface model with field data on snow depth and snow density, we evaluate how inaccuracies in simulating snow metrics affect soil temperature, thaw depth and soil carbon decomposition. We also show how field data can be assimilated into models using optimization techniques in order to identify model defects and improve model performance.

Soil moisture and ground thaw state are both indicative of a hillslope's ability to transfer water. In cold regions, in particular, it is widely known that the depth of the active layer and wetness of surface soils are important for runoff generation, but the diversity of interactions between ground thaw and surface soil moisture themselves has not be studied. To fill this knowledge gap, detailed shallow soil moisture and thaw depth surveys were conducted along systematic grids from April to July of 2008 at the Baker Creek Basin, Northwest Territories. Multiple hillslopes were studied to determine how the interactions differed along a spectrum of topological, typological and topographic situations across the landscape. Overall results did not show a simple link between soil moisture and ground thaw as was expected. Instead, correlation was a function of wetness. The drier the site was, the more random the interaction between soil moisture and ground thaw. This indicates that interactive soil moisture and thaw depth behaviour on hillslopes in cold regions changes with location and cannot necessarily be lumped together in hydrological models. To explore further why these differences arise, a companion paper (Part 2: Influences of water and energy fluxes) will examine how the hydrological and energy fluxes influenced the found spatiotemporal patterns.

The companion paper (Guan et al., 2010) demonstrated variable interactions and correlations between shallow soil moisture and ground thaw in soil filled areas along a wetness spectrum in a subarctic Canadian Precambrian Shield landscape. From wetter to drier, these included a wetland, peatland and soil filled valley. Herein, water and energy fluxes were examined for these same subarctic study sites to discern the key controlling processes on the found patterns. Results showed the key control in variable soil moisture and frost table interactions among the sites was the presence of surface water. At the peatland and wetland sites, accumulated water in depressions and flow paths maintained soil moisture for a longer duration than at the hummock tops. These wet areas were often locations of deepest thaw depth due to the transfer of latent heat accompanying lateral surface runoff. Although the peatland and wetland sites had large inundation extent, modified Péclet numbers indicated the relative influence of external and internal hydrological processes at each site were different. Continuous inflow from an upstream lake into the wetland site caused advective and conductive thermal energies to be of equal importance to conductive ground thaw. The absence of continuous surface flow at the peatland and valley sites led to dominance of conductive thermal energy over advective energy for ground thaw. The results suggest that the modified Péclet number could be a very useful parameter to differentiate landscape components in modeling frost table heterogeneity. The calculated water and energy fluxes, and the modified Péclet number provide quantitative explanations for the shallow soil moisture-ground thaw patterns by linking them with hydrological processes and hillslope storage capacity.