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Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO2 measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1∘ × 1∘ gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 Pg CO2 yr−1 (0.90–1.25 Pg C yr−1). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

WOMBAT (the WOllongong Methodology for Bayesian Assimilation of Trace-gases) is a fully Bayesian hierarchical statistical framework for flux inversion of trace gases from flask, in situ, and remotely sensed data. WOMBAT extends the conventional Bayesian synthesis framework through the consideration of a correlated error term, the capacity for online bias correction, and the provision of uncertainty quantification on all unknowns that appear in the Bayesian statistical model. We show, in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE), that these extensions are crucial when the data are indeed biased and have errors that are spatio-temporally correlated. Using the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model, we show that WOMBAT is able to obtain posterior means and variances on non-fossil-fuel CO2 fluxes from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) data that are comparable to those from the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) reported in Crowell et al. (2019). We also find that WOMBAT's predictions of out-of-sample retrievals obtained from the Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) are, for the most part, more accurate than those made by the MIP participants.

Climate models produce output over decades or longer at high spatial and temporal resolution. Starting values, boundary conditions, greenhouse gas emissions, and so forth make the climate model an uncertain representation of the climate system. A standard paradigm for assessing the quality of climate model simulations is to compare what these models produce for past and present time periods, to observations of the past and present. Many of these comparisons are based on simple summary statistics called metrics. In this article, we propose an alternative: evaluation of competing climate models through probabilities derived from tests of the hypothesis that climate-model-simulated and observed time sequences share common climate-scale signals. The probabilities are based on the behavior of summary statistics of climate model output and observational data over ensembles of pseudo-realizations. These are obtained by partitioning the original time sequences into signal and noise components, and using a parametric bootstrap to create pseudo-realizations of the noise sequences. The statistics we choose come from working in the space of decorrelated and dimension-reduced wavelet coefficients. Here, we compare monthly sequences of CMIP5 model output of average global near-surface temperature anomalies to similar sequences obtained from the well-known HadCRUT4 data set as an illustration.

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean is a key component of many global climate models and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We shall analyse SST for the period November 1981–December 2014. To study the temporal variability of the ENSO phenomenon, we have selected a subregion of the tropical Pacific Ocean, namely the Niño 3.4 region, as it is thought to be the area where SST anomalies indicate most clearly ENSO's influence on the global atmosphere. SST anomalies, obtained by subtracting the appropriate monthly averages from the data, are the focus of the majority of previous analyses of the Pacific and other oceans' SSTs. Preliminary data analysis showed that not only Niño 3.4 spatial means but also Niño 3.4 spatial variances varied with month of the year. In this article, we conduct an analysis of the raw SST data and introduce diagnostic plots (here, plots of variability vs. central tendency). These plots show strong negative dependence between the spatial standard deviation and the spatial mean. Outliers are present, so we consider robust regression to obtain intercept and slope estimates for the 12 individual months and for all-months-combined. Based on this mean–standard deviation relationship, we define a variance-stabilizing transformation. On the transformed scale, we describe the Niño 3.4 SST time series with a statistical model that is linear, heteroskedastic, and dynamical.

We describe a method of evaluating systematic errors in measurements of total column dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) from space, and we illustrate the method by applying it to the v2.8 Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space retrievals of the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (ACOS-GOSAT) measurements over land. The approach exploits the lack of large gradients in XCO2 south of 25° S to identify large-scale offsets and other biases in the ACOS-GOSAT data with several retrieval parameters and errors in instrument calibration. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method by comparing the ACOS-GOSAT data in the Northern Hemisphere with ground truth provided by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We use the observed correlation between free-tropospheric potential temperature and XCO2 in the Northern Hemisphere to define a dynamically informed coincidence criterion between the ground-based TCCON measurements and the ACOS-GOSAT measurements. We illustrate that this approach provides larger sample sizes, hence giving a more robust comparison than one that simply uses time, latitude and longitude criteria. Our results show that the agreement with the TCCON data improves after accounting for the systematic errors, but that extrapolation to conditions found outside the region south of 25° S may be problematic (e.g., high airmasses, large surface pressure biases, M-gain, measurements made over ocean). A preliminary evaluation of the improved v2.9 ACOS-GOSAT data is also discussed.