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A new version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model, ACCESS-CM2, has been developed for a wide range of climate modelling research and applications. In particular, ACCESS-CM2 is one of Australia’s contributions to the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Compared with the ACCESS1.3 model used for our CMIP5 submission, all model components have been upgraded as well as the coupling framework (OASIS3-MCT) and experiment control system (Rose/Cylc). The component models are: UM10.6 GA7.1 for the atmosphere, CABLE2.5 for the land surface, MOM5 for the ocean, and CICE5.1.2 for the sea ice. This paper describes the model configuration of ACCESS-CM2, documents the experimental set up, and assesses the model performance for the preindustrial spin-up simulation in comparison against (reconstructed) observations and ACCESS1.3 results. While the performance of the two generations of the ACCESS coupled model is largely comparable, ACCESS-CM2 shows better global hydrological balance, more realistic ocean water properties (in terms of spatial distribution) and meridional overturning circulation in the Southern Ocean but a poorer simulation of the Antarctic sea ice and a larger energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere. This energy imbalance reflects a noticeable warming trend of the global ocean over the spin-up period.

Climate change adaptation means that not only do we have difficult decisions to make, but we also need improved ways of making them. Although not new, scenario planning is one tool increasingly being used to improve thinking about climate change and adaptation, reflecting the way it usefully accommodates the mix of certainty and uncertainty, as well as realism and constructivism, which characterise the climate change issue. This paper provides an overview of climate change adaptation and scenario planning, emphasising the existence of conservative and radical approaches to each and the context of multiple epistemological ideals in modern governance. Overall, the paper highlights the framed, or socially constructed, nature of both adaptation and scenario planning and the implications of their intersection.

SAVING A Million Species is an emotive title for a book, and immediately raises a number of questions, including “Are a million species really at risk from climate change?”, “Which species are they?” and “How can we save them?”. This book attempts to tackle these critical questions, and more. Organized into six key parts, and with 20 chapters authored by many of the pre-eminent researchers in climate change and biodiversity science, Saving A Million Species is an ambitious book that addresses the most significant conservation crisis of our time. As a reference and a starting point for further chapters, Part I begins by introducing and dissecting the well-known paper by Thomas et al., “Extinction Risk from Climate Change”, published in Nature in 2004. Chris Thomas returns to arguably the most important paper of his career, and scrutinizes the methodologies and limitations of that first analysis. Chapter 3 goes on to discuss the implications and fallout from the paper, including subsequent changes in policy around the world and the incorporation of extinction risk from climate change into threatened species listings.

Organic carbon and nitrogen found in soils are subject to a range of biological processes capable of generating or consuming greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4). In response to the strong impact that agricultural management can have on the amount of organic carbon and nitrogen stored in soil and their rates of biological cycling, soils have the potential to reduce or enhance concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Concern also exists over the potential positive feedback that a changing climate may have on rates of greenhouse gas emission from soil. Climate projections for most of the agricultural regions of Australia suggest a warmer and drier future with greater extremes relative to current climate. Since emissions of greenhouse gases from soil derive from biological processes that are sensitive to soil temperature and water content, climate change may impact significantly on future emissions. In this paper, the potential effects of climate change and options for adaptation and mitigations will be considered, followed by an assessment of future research requirements. The paper concludes by suggesting that the diversity of climate, soil types, and agricultural practices in place across Australia will make it difficult to define generic scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. Development of a robust modelling capability will be required to construct regional and national emission assessments and to define the potential outcomes of on-farm management decisions and policy decisions. This model development will require comprehensive field datasets to calibrate the models and validate model outputs. Additionally, improved spatial layers of model input variables collected on a regular basis will be required to optimise accounting at regional to national scales.

Climate change presents a range of challenges for animal agriculture in Australia. Livestock production will be affected by changes in temperature and water availability through impacts on pasture and forage crop quantity and quality, feed-grain production and price, and disease and pest distributions. This paper provides an overview of these impacts and the broader effects on landscape functionality, with a focus on recent research on effects of increasing temperature, changing rainfall patterns, and increased climate variability on animal health, growth, and reproduction, including through heat stress, and potential adaptation strategies. The rate of adoption of adaptation strategies by livestock producers will depend on perceptions of the uncertainty in projected climate and regional-scale impacts and associated risk. However, management changes adopted by farmers in parts of Australia during recent extended drought and associated heatwaves, trends consistent with long-term predicted climate patterns, provide some insights into the capacity for practical adaptation strategies. Animal production systems will also be significantly affected by climate change policy and national targets to address greenhouse gas emissions, since livestock are estimated to contribute ~10% of Australia’s total emissions and 8–11% of global emissions, with additional farm emissions associated with activities such as feed production. More than two-thirds of emissions are attributed to ruminant animals. This paper discusses the challenges and opportunities facing livestock industries in Australia in adapting to and mitigating climate change. It examines the research needed to better define practical options to reduce the emissions intensity of livestock products, enhance adaptation opportunities, and support the continued contribution of animal agriculture to Australia’s economy, environment, and regional communities.

Desert/remote Australia is blessed with abundant natural energy resources from solar, geothermal and other renewable sources. If these were harnessed and connected appropriately desert/remote Australia could be not only energy self-sufficient but a net exporter. Generation of abundant, clean energy can also attract energy-intensive industries and provide local income and employment. Such co-benefits should be included in any cost-benefit analysis. Regardless of renewable energy’s contribution to reducing climate change, the world is already committed to global warming and associated climate changes. Desert/remote Australia will thus inevitably get warmer, with implications for health, energy demand and other issues, and may be subject to increased extremes such as flooding, longer dry spells, more severe storms and coastal inundation. In addition, the prospect of world demand for oil from conventional sources exceeding supply will likely lead to oil shortages, higher oil prices, and additional incentives to provide alternative energy supplies. The region is heavily reliant on diesel generators and fossil fuel-powered motor vehicles and airplanes for transport for within-region mobility, the importation of goods, the tourism industry and emergency medical services. Without adaptation, climate change and peak oil will make living in desert/remote Australia less attractive, resulting in increased difficulty of attracting and retaining skilled workers, which would constrain development. This paper focuses on the climate and energy-related impacts and potential responses. These are both a challenge and an opportunity. They could provide additional employment and income, thus helping remote communities to participate in the clean energy economy of the future and thus overcome some serious social problems. The paper attempts to review current knowledge and provoke debate on relevant investment strategies, and it teases out the questions in need of further research.

Recent records in bogs[1] and Arctic polar ice cores[2] show a dramatic increase in antimony in the environment since the Industrial Revolution – probably because it is now being used extensively in industry[3] and for items such as car brake linings[4] and in fire retardants.[5] Air analyses in major cities show very high concentrations of antimony in air particulates,[6] and soil samples near motorways show enrichment in antimony.[7] As antimony has no known biological function, there is concern as to the long-term effects on ecosystems and humans from these increased levels. Many basic questions about the environmental chemistry of Sb remain unanswered, in particular, the factors that influence redox transformations in waters and soils and the formation of methylated species by organisms in landfills and sewage.[8–10] Its impact as an environmental contaminant is unclear and its toxicity to organisms is not well understood. Antimony is a global contaminant and there is an urgent need to improve our understanding of its biogeochemical cycling and behaviour, and risks associated with its presence in environmental systems. As well, data for environmental compartments such as groundwater[11,12] are sparse. It is clear that the natural biogeochemical cycle of Sb needs to be understood before the effects of global contamination can be assessed with confidence. It is timely to bring together a series of papers highlighting the biogeochemical cycling of Sb, its sources, transport through environmental compartments, and risk assessment. Thus, we present in the current Research Front a series of papers on various aspects of antimony’s environmental chemistry in order to enable readers to get some insight into the topic and its pressing issues. The series includes two Reviews, a Highlight article and five Research papers. Review articles Filella et al.[13] in their Review discuss the environmental chemistry of Sb, calling for more focussed research, particularly in the areas of ecotoxicology and speciation analysis.They ask that researchers carefully read the primary literature as myths about Sb are being propagated. A further Review from Tschan et al.[14] highlights that, although available soil Sb is readily taken up by plants, little is known about

In this, the fourth issue, we have the usual mix of reviews, essays and original research papers. Several articles address the complex issue of management for sustainability; what does this mean and how, for example, can we make use of forests without adversely affecting their biological processes and diversity? Another thought-provoking review considers the potential impacts of climate change and implications for conservation policy and planning. The research papers include one on rainforest expansion and another on the use of rainforest fragments by fauna; each of these is relevant to the management of tropical rainforests in north Queensland.

Australia's population could reach 42 million by 2050. This rapid population growth, if unabated, will have significant social, public health and environmental implications. On the one hand, it is a major driver of climate change and environmental degradation; on the other it is likely to be a major contributor to growing social and health issues including a decline in quality of life for many residents. Disadvantaged and vulnerable groups will be most affected. The environmental, social and health-related issues include: pressure on the limited arable land in Australia; increased volumes of industrial and domestic waste; inadequate essential services; traffic congestion; lack of affordable housing; declining mental health; increased obesity problems; and inadequate aged care services. Many of these factors are related to the aggravation of climate change and health inequities. It is critical that the Australian Government develops a sustainable population plan with stabilisation of population growth as an option. The plan needs to ensure adequate hospitals and healthcare services, education facilities, road infrastructure, sustainable transport options, water quality and quantity, utilities and other amenities that are already severely overburdened in Australian cities. There is a need for a guarantee that affordable housing will be available and priority be given to training young people and Indigenous people for employment. This paper presents evidence to support the need for the stabilisation of population growth as one of the most significant measures to control climate change as well as to improve public health equity.

Objectives The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0–64, 65–84 and ≥85 years) to 2050. Results From 2006–07 to 2010–11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ≥85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006–07 to 2010–11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Rapid population aging is anticipated over coming decades. International studies and specific local-level Australian studies have demonstrated significant growth in ED presentations. There have been no prior national-level Australian studies of ED presentation trends by age group. What does this paper add? The present study examined national ED presentation trends from July 2006 to June 2011, with specific emphasis on trends in presentation by age group. ED presentation growth was found to exceed population growth in all age groups. The rate of ED presentations per head of population was highest among those aged ≥85 years. ED utilisation projections to 2050, using standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population modelling, with and without adjustment for current ED growth, were developed. The projections demonstrated linear growth in ED presentation for those aged 0–84 years, with growth in ED presentations of the ≥85 year age group demonstrating marked acceleration after 2030. What are the implications for practitioners? Growth in ED presentations exceeding population growth suggests that current models of acute health care delivery require review to ensure that optimal care is delivered in the most fiscally efficient manner. Trends in presentation of older people emphasise the imperative for ED workforce planning and education in care of this complex patient cohort, and the requirement to review funding models to incentivise investment in ED avoidance and substitutive care models targeting older people.

The one that will likely attract the most attention is a reconstruction of global temperature over the last 2000 years. This was a mammoth collaboration, involving 78 scientists from 60 scientific institutions, all part of the PAGES network (Past Global Changes). This network enabled researchers to use ice cores, tree-rings, lake sediments and other forms of data from all over the globe. The result – the PAGES 2k Paper – is a robust reconstruction of temperature across seven continents over 2000 years.

Australia's southern coastal wetlands are more diverse than most people realise. In a recent paper, Paul Boon suggests they provide valuable ecological services that exceed those of inland wetland ecosystems. But these wetlands face enormous pressures from urban development and climate change. Fifty percent of coastal wetlands have been lost from the east coast of Australia. Disciplines Medicine and Health Sciences | Social and Behavioral Sciences Publication Details Lovelock, C., Bell, J. & Rogers, K. (2013). Carbon farming could restore Australia's southern coastal wetlands. The Conversation, 8 May 1-3. This journal article is available at Research Online: http://ro.uow.edu.au/smhpapers/1882 Catherine Lovelock Professor of Biology at University of Queensland Justine Bell Postdoctoral Fellow in Law at University of Queensland Kerrylee Rogers Research Fellow at University of Wollongong 8 May 2013, 6.35am AEST

Although the Indo-Pacific is the global centre of diversity for the heterobranch sea slugs, their distribution remains, in many places, largely unknown. On the Australian east coast, their diversity decreases from approximately 1000 species in the northern Great Barrier Reef to fewer than 400 in Bass Strait. While occurrence records for some of the more populated sections of the coast are well known, data are patchy for more remote areas. Many species have very short lifecycles, so they can respond rapidly to changes in environmental conditions. The New South Wales coast is a recognised climate change hot-spot and southward shifts in distribution have already been documented for several species. However, thorough documentation of present distributions is an essential prerequisite for identifying further range extensions. While distribution data are available in the public realm, much is also held privately as photographic collections, diaries and logs. This paper consolidates the current occurrence data from both private and public sources as part of a broader study of sea slug distribution in south-eastern Australia and provides an inventory by region. A total of 382 species, 155 genera and 54 families is reported from the mainland coast of New South Wales.

Many agricultural studies have identified that wheat yield is sensitive to seasonal rainfall and extreme high temperatures. We investigate the impact of extreme heat events, in particular on wheat yields in South-East Australia (SEA) and South-West Western Australia (SWWA).We define a 'heat-day' as a day where the daily maximum temperature exceeds the 1911–2013 90th percentile for the respective calendar month. We find that the number of heat-days has experienced statistically significant increases across most months across much of Australia, particularly in South Australia, Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania. The trends are especially marked in winter, including in key wheat-growing regions. The temperatures recorded on these hottest days have also shown a statistically significant increase over the last 100 years.We find that, while wheat yields are more strongly correlated with rainfall than with the number of heat-days, there is substantial evidence to suggest that during drought conditions wheat yields are sensitive to the number of heat-days recorded in August and September in SEA and September and October in SWWA. Extreme heat and rainfall have a stronger association with below-average yields than above-average yields.Extreme temperatures and rainfall in these regions are related to major Australian climate drivers which form the basis of seasonal prediction models and are important for natural variability and long-term climate change. Here we assess the degree to which wheat yields in both regions can be related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We find that positive IOD events and El Niño events are both associated with reductions in wheat yields in SEA, but that the co-incidence of these events have no additional wheat yield reductions than would be expected if either a positive IOD or El Niño event occurs. The average annual wheat yield loss associated with El Niño state and/or positive IOD state in SEA is estimated to around sixteen to twenty one per cent.This paper provides insights into the historical relationships between wheat yields, extreme heat and climatic modes of variability in Australia, and discusses the possibilities for changes in wheat yields under a future climate change scenario.

The Convention for Wetlands was signed in 1971 as part of a global measure to mitigate the loss and degradation of the world’s wetlands. Signatory nations nominate wetlands as internationally important and commit to maintaining their ‘ecological character’. In many cases the character that has been maintained was that occurring at the time of nomination with scant attention to the variability and change that occurs over longer periods. Palaeoclimate and palaeoecological research now reveals a diverse array of conditions in wetlands in the past and attests that any recently identified condition may be transient. The research further reveals the considerable magnitude and antiquity of the impact of people on wetlands. Hence the site description used by wetland managers would benefit from the provision of a longer-term perspective of change. The changing state of wetlands provides a dilemma for wetland managers. In response, a workshop on understanding change in wetlands was held in Queenscliff, Australia, in November 2013 to draw together perspectives of change from neo- and palaeoecological sources to enable the formulation of new pathways of assessment to better accommodate the dynamic nature of wetlands. A synthesis of the information provided at the workshop is provided in this paper.

Considerable uncertainty exists about future climatic predictions but there is little doubt among experts that the future will be warmer. Climate change and the associated elevation in atmospheric CO2 level and temperatures will provide novel challenges and potential opportunities for cultivated plant species. Plant breeding and domestication can contribute to improvements in both yield and quality of native grasses, legumes and forage shrubs. This review explores the use of functional traits to identify native Australian grasses, legumes and forage shrubs suitable for domestication, to meet the challenges and opportunities under a changing climate in pastoral areas in Australia. The potential of these species in terms of life history, regenerative traits, forage quality and quantity, drought tolerance and invasiveness is examined. The paper focuses on three Australian pastoral regions (high-rainfall temperate south, tropical and subtropical grasslands, low-rainfall semi-arid shrublands), in terms of future climate predictions and potential of selected native species to meet these requirements. Selection for adaptation to new climatic environments is challenging but many native species already possess the traits required to cope with the environment under future climate scenarios.

This paper analyses trends in temperature in Fiji, using data from more stations (10) and longer periods (52-78 years) than previous studies. All the stations analysed show a statistically significant trend in both maximum and minimum temperature, with increases ranging from 0.08 to 0.23°C per decade. More recent temperatures show a higher rate of increase, particularly in maximum temperature (0.18 to 0.69°C per decade from 1989 to 2008). This clear signal of climate change is consistent with that found in previous studies of temperatures in Fiji and other Pacific Islands. Trends in extreme values show an even stronger signal of climate change than that for mean temperatures. Our preliminary analysis of daily maxima at 6 stations indicates that for 4 of them (Suva, Labasa, Vunisea and Rotuma) there has been a tripling in the number of days per year with temperature >32°C between 1970 and 2008. The correlations between annual mean maximum (minimum) temperature and year are mostly strong: for about half the stations the correlation coefficient exceeds 60% over 50+ years. Trends do not vary systematically with location of station. At all 7 stations for which both trends are available there is no statistically significant difference between the trends in maximum and minimum temperatures.

Climate change presents the need and opportunity for what the Stern report called ‘major, non-marginal change’. Such transformational adaptation is rapidly emerging as a serious topic in agriculture. This paper provides an overview of the topic as it applies to agriculture, focusing on the Australian situation. It does so by first defining transformational adaptation, distinguishing it from other more incremental but overlapping modes of climate change adaptation and positing its emergence in agriculture as a response to both drivers and opportunities. The multiple dimensions of transformational adaptation are highlighted before two types or cases are focussed upon in order to tease out issues and highlight two major examples of transformation in agriculture in the past. Four key issues about climate change adaptation in agriculture particularly pertinent for transformational adaptation are then reviewed: the identification, level, distribution and management of the costs of adaptation; the definition, potential for and need to avoid maladaptation; the capacity demands that this level of adaptation presents; and the role of government in adaptation. Overall, transformational adaptation poses potential great gains but also great risks. It reinforces the realisation that agricultural research can no longer remain insulated from off-farm, non-science or non-agricultural knowledge or processes. Support and guidance of transformational adaptation requires that we understand how Australian agriculture is currently, and could be, positioned within the landscape, rural communities, and broader social, political and cultural environment.

Australia’s primary industries are likely to be uniquely impacted upon by climate change. In February 2011 the inaugural Climate Change Research Strategy for Primary Industries (CCRSPI) conference was held to discuss the current state of climate change research across Australia’s primary industries. Never before had policy makers, producers and scientists from all sectors of our primary industries been brought together in one event to focus on the challenges and opportunities of climate change. This conference was a unique forum to address those challenges and opportunities by sharing knowledge across the various sectors, scientific disciplines and the industry-policy-science divide. While this collection of review papers provides an excellent knowledge base for industry and government to plan and implement policy and make further research investments to address the obvious gaps there is still much to be done in terms of research and the co-ordination of research. The often unrelated research activity in the adaptation and mitigation components of climate change research have the potential to have either synergistic or antagonistic outcomes at several scales and in several sectors ranging from policy to industry and community. The significant injection of research and development funds into this area through the Carbon Farming Futures and other associated programs will provide further impetus to the need for national co-ordination of climate change research in Australia’s Primary Industries. To build on all this knowledge and experience gained at the 2011 CCRSPI Conference, CCRSPI is currently (2012) finalising the national climate change research strategy for the sector, with an associated audit of existing projects and capacity, in order to encourage and advocate the cross-sectoral RDE needs and co-ordination for the future.

There have been numerous new discoveries of chemical activity at the snow–atmosphere interface over the last 20 years. These observations have stimulated an increasing body of research on snow chemical systems. The findings from this research have led to a general consensus that photochemical processes are the determining control of this snow chemistry. Traditional gasphase chemical reactions have fallen short of fully explaining observed behaviour. Heterogeneous and quasi-liquid layer chemistry has been postulated to play a role in accounting for the discrepancies. The Tkachenko and Kozachkov article is therefore a timely presentation of new ideas for further elucidating snowpack chemical mechanisms. In the following discussion we present recent data relevant to testing hypothesis proposed by Tkachenko and Kozachkov. Some of the hypotheses presented in this paper build upon data from measurements of ozone (O3) in interstitial air of the deep, glacial snowpack at Summit, Greenland, that were presented in our previous work. These experiments reported on positive O3 atmosphere–snowpack gradients, i.e. depleted O3 within the snowpack, and their dynamical behaviour dependent on environmental conditions. We have since taken this research to other locations and further investigated the dependencies of O3 within snow on a variety of parameters. A particular interest of this new research was to further investigate snowpack chemistry in environments with different snowpack conditions (year-round dry, polar snow; seasonal mid-latitude snowpack; snow over permafrost; snow over frozen freshwater lakes). We have also conducted a further 2 years of experiments at Summit, where the measurement depth in the snowpack was increased to 2.5m and experiments were extended year round to include winter observations. Another environment with polar year-round snowpack over glacial ice was investigated at South Pole, Antarctica. From the comparison with these other sites it has become obvious that the Summit snowpack is somewhat unique in that (1) O3 levels within the snowpack are generally higher than observed at other locations, and (2) interstitial air O3 shows a muchmore dynamic dependence on time of day and season than at the other locations that we have investigated. This behaviour might be in agreement with some hypotheses presented by Tkachenko and Kozachkov as they propose that O3 production by the triboelectrical effect would be most pronounced at sites characterised by a thick, glacial snowpack, low humidity, periodic high wind speeds, and low temperatures; all conditions that are typical for Summit. Our series of experiments have shown that different processes dominate snowpack chemistry in non-glacial snowpack. For example, one definite influence on O3 reactions in seasonal, midlatitude snowpack is the role of NO emitted from microbial processes in the subniveal soil. These influences were evident at a high alpine site at Niwot Ridge, CO, in the RockyMountains; snowpack under a canopy at the University of Michigan Biological Station (B. Seok, D. Helmig, M. W. Williams, C. Vogel, P. Curtis, unpubl. data); and snowpack over permafrost at Toolik Field Station, AK (B. Van Dam, D. Helmig, R. Honrath, L. Kramer, C. Toro, unpubl. data). For the Summit snowpack, Helmig et al. noted that O3 atmosphere–snowpack concentration gradients show three

Rising temperatures are expected to increase wildfire activity in many regions of the world. Over the last 60 years in Mongolia, mean annual temperatures have increased ~2°C and the recorded frequency and spatial extent of forest and steppe fires have increased. Few long records of fire history exist to place these recent changes in a historical perspective. The purpose of this paper is to report on fire history research from three sites in central Mongolia and to highlight the potential of this region as a test case for understanding the relationships between climate change, fire and land use. We collected partial cross-sections from fire-scarred trees and stumps at each site using a targeted sampling approach. All three sites had long histories of fire ranging from 280 to 450 years. Mean Weibull fire return intervals varied from 7 to 16 years. Fire scars at one protected-area site were nearly absent after 1760, likely owing to changes in land use. There is limited synchrony in fire occurrence across sites, suggesting that fire occurrence, at least at annual time scales, might be influenced by local processes (grazing, human ignitions, other land-use factors) as well as regional processes like climate. Additional data are being collected to further test hypotheses regarding climate change, land use and fire.

THESE days debate over climate change (aka global warming) pervades every facet of our lives from politics to conservation, from small talk to international conferences. Managing Climate Change presents the papers from one of those conferences, Greenhouse 2009. Remarkably, Greenhouse 2009 was the fifth in the Greenhouse series, occupied four days, was attended by more than 500 delegates, and comprised more than 150 presentations and I had never heard of it. Admittedly I’ve turned off a bit on climate change viewing it all as “too little, too late” and at my age no longer my problem. Still, given my efforts in the 1980s to alert people to the challenges of climate change2, I could not understand how I missed all this so turned to the internet for details.

Dams, diversion of water, invasive species, overharvesting and pollution are degrading rivers and wetlands. Climate change may exacerbate impacts of these threats through predicted reductions in rainfall and increased temperature, decreasing flow and altering timing and variability of flow regimes. Papers in this special issue identify conservation-management strategies for wetlands and rivers through recovery of flow regimes, alteration of dam operations, protected-area management and improved governance and adaptive management. On most regulated rivers, flow regimes should be recovered by increasing environmental flows. Alteration of dam operations can also improve river health through structures on dams (e.g. fishways, multi-level offtakes), reinstating floodplains and improving flow delivery. Further, time-limited licensing for dams and accompanying regular assessments of safety and of environmental and socioeconomic impacts could improve operations. Protected areas remain the core strategy for conservation, with recent improvements in their identification and management, supported by analytical tools that integrate across large spatial and temporal scales. Finally, effective conservation requires good governance and rigorous adaptive management. Conservation management of rivers and wetlands can be significantly improved by adopting these strategies although considerable challenges remain, given increasing human pressures on freshwater resources, compounded by the impacts of climate change.

With the emergence of a new forest management paradigm based on the emulation of natural disturbance regimes, interest in fire-related studies has increased in the boreal forest management community. A key issue in this regard is the improvement of our understanding of the variability in past disturbances and its linkages with climate and ecosystems. The surge in research activity has further been exacerbated by the increasing awareness of climate change, which has already exposed boreal forests to greater fire risk in recent decades. It is anticipated that further warming and drying will further enhance fire frequency and area burned in many boreal forests. Better predictions of future fire activity will contribute to better long-term forest planning in managed boreal forests. The 12 papers presented in this special issue exemplify this increased research activity by bringing together studies from diverse disciplines and presenting the latest advances regarding methodological approaches for reconstruction and modelling of past, present and future fire activity. Here we aim to summarise, evaluate and set into context some of the new insights arising from these studies and also to discuss some considerations to be taken into account in future research activities.

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.

Climate change has been described as the issue of our times. The World Health Organization argues that it will result in both beneficial and harmful effects for human populations and that the harms are likely to outweigh the benefits. Climate scientists can sketch an outline of the probable changes by country, and even region within a country. The effect of climate change on communities is much harder to predict. However, it can be argued with some confidence that the effects will be unequally distributed across communities and that the ways in which communities respond will make a substantial difference to their wellbeing. This paper uses the predictions for climate change in Victoria, Australia, as the background to a discussion of primary health care principles and how they might translate into coping, adaptation and mitigation activities within the primary health care sector. The major primary health care agencies are linked to one another through Primary Care Partnership structures and processes, which provide a foundation for sector-wide responses to climate change. The concept of a storyline, a brief scenario capturing the logic of changes and potential responses, is used to link evidence of climate change effects on communities and individuals to potential responses by primary health care agencies.

Since it was first raised more than 20 years ago, there has been increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on mosquito-borne viral diseases in Australia. This has generated a number of predictions and projections on the effect of global warming on the incidence and spread of Australian arboviruses. These have been discussed recently by Russell and Jacobs & colleagues and thus need not be repeated in detail here. In addition, it was also the topic of a previous ?In Focus? article. This paper will briefly focus on the complex interplay between climate-associated factors which may affect the incidence and spread of mosquito-borne viruses, and show how these factors may influence the ecologies of the major Australian arboviruses.

The six papers in this theme issue of Pacific Conservation Biology were presented at a symposium organized by the WildCountry Science Council (see Recher 2003 for an account of WildCountry) at the Adelaide meeting of the Ecological Society of Australia in 2004. The symposium theme of ?dispersive fauna? is central to the philosophy and principles of WildCountry. The WildCountry philosophy is based on the argument that the long-term conservation of continental biodiversity is not possible with a system of spatially static conservation reserves by itself. Reserves form the core of WildCountry, but cannot fully sample continental biodiversity, nor allow for the full range of movements characteristic of the biota unless the total area set aside from development far exceeds what society would see as economically or politically acceptable. Because of these limits, a static and spatially limited reserve system cannot meet the challenge of ensuring the evolutionary viability of populations and species. A challenge that becomes increasingly difficult and urgent to resolve in the face of accelerating climate change and the loss and modification of habitat through land clearing, pastoralism, changed fire regimes, and the spread of weeds and feral animals among a myriad of environmental changes driven by human endeavour across the landscape. In my view, probably greater than 50% of the continent is the absolute minimum for a fixed system of reserves to meet the needs of biodiversity conservation, but see Archer (2002) who suggests a minimum of 20% may be required simply to meet the most basic evolutionary criteria.

Environmental context. Understanding the role of clouds in the warming and the cooling of the planet and how that role alters in a warming world is one of the biggest uncertainties climate change researchers face. Important in this regard is the influence on cloud properties of cloud condensation nuclei, the tiny atmospheric particles necessary for the nucleation of every single cloud droplet. The anthropogenic contribution to cloud condensation nuclei is known to be large in some regions through knowledge of pollutant emissions; however, the natural processes that regulate cloud condensation nuclei over large parts of the globe are less well understood. The CLAW hypothesis provides a mechanism by which plankton may modify climate through the atmospheric sulfur cycle via the provision of sulfate cloud condensation nuclei. The CLAW hypothesis was published over 20 years ago and has stimulated a great deal of research. Abstract. The CLAW hypothesis has for 20 years provided the intriguing prospect of oceanic and atmospheric systems exhibiting in an intimately coupled way a capacity to react to changing climate in a manner that opposes the change. A great number of quality scientific papers has resulted, many confirming details of specific links between oceanic phytoplankton and dimethylsulfide (DMS) emission to the atmosphere, the importance of DMS oxidation products in regulation of marine atmospheric cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) populations, and a concomitant influence on marine stratocumulus cloud properties. However, despite various links in the proposed phytoplankton–DMS–CCN–cloud albedo climate feedback loop being affirmed, there has been no overall scientific synthesis capable of adequately testing the hypothesis at a global scale. Moreover, significant gaps and contradictions remain, such as a lack of quantitative understanding of new particle formation processes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer, and of the extent to which dynamical, rather than microphysical, cloud feedbacks exist. Nevertheless, considerable progress has been made in understanding ‘Earth System Science’ involving the integration of ocean and atmospheric systems inherent in the CLAW hypothesis. We present here a short review of this progress since the publication of the CLAW hypothesis.