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The Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) 3.1 is comprised of the 1/12 HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model that is two-way coupled to the Community Ice CodE in a daily update cycle with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation. Additionally it uses Improved Synthetic OceanProfiles to project surface information downward into the water column. GOFS nowcasts/forecasts the oceans weather, which includes the three-dimensional ocean temperature, salinity and current structure, the surface mixed layer, the location of mesoscale features, and ice concentration, thickness and drift in both hemispheres. It is scheduled to replace GOFS 3.0 for the ocean and the Arctic Cap Nowcast/ForecastSystem (ACNFS) for sea ice, both of which are the existing operational systems at the Naval Oceanographic Office. This report describes the system comparisons against unassimilated observations at both the nowcast time and as a function of forecast length. An ocean scorecard provides the relative performance of GOFS 3.1 vs. GOFS 3.0. Overall, GOFS 3.1 is performing equal to or better than both GOFS 3.0 and ACNFS, and is recommended to become the next global operational system.

The U.S. Department of Defense Architecture Framework (DoDAF) provides a standard framework for transforming systems concepts into a consistent set of products containing the elements and relationships required to represent a complex operational system. However, without a human perspective, the current DoDAF does not account for the human performance aspects needed to calculate the human contribution to system effectiveness and cost. The Human Viewpoint gives systems engineers additional tools to integrate human considerations into systems development by facilitating identification and collection of human-focused data. It provides a way to include Human Systems Integration (HSI) constructs into mainstream acquisition and systems engineering processes by promoting early, frequent coordination of analysis efforts by both the systems engineering and HSI communities.

The U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) has been investigating various aspects of the urban environment, including the airflow and stability characterization around a single urban building, and small building clusters. Experience and results from these studies led to the design and development of a decision aid called the Local-Rapid Evaluation of Atmospheric Conditions (L-REAC (trademark)) System. The ultimate goal for L-REAC is to improve soldier/civilian situational awareness of environmental airborne hazards during potentially life-threatening events. This goal is accomplished by mapping a near-real-time wind field and, once defined, an airborne-threat plume footprint over the subject area. Volume 1 presented the L-REAC Proof of Concept System. In Volume 2, we described an improved system, the L-REAC Prototype. In this third volume, we describe the development of an operational system which was evaluated by users and used in a real world event (the 2011 April Abrams Fires). The development efforts included gaining a better understanding of the users requirements and determining methods for getting the results to the user in a quick, automated, secure and reliable manner. This volume concludes with a sample of the evaluation results, which will be published in a separate report.

The goal of this work is to better understand the generation, propagation, modal transformations and interaction of multiple NLIWs (Nonlinear Internal Waves) on the continental slope and shelf using a nonhydrostatic model embedded in nested hydrostatic models with realistic forcing and bathymetry. An additional goal is to explore the generation of NLIWs in the Luzon Strait. Accuracy will be assessed by hindcasting and forecasting the temperature, salinity and velocity fields for the SCS (South China Sea) and Luzon Strait experiments of this DRI and for the ASIAEX experiment. This work will provide the understanding needed to build an operational system to predict the timing, location and intensity of NLIWs as required for tactical planning.

The main goal of this project is to increase our understanding of sound propagation in ocean bottom sediments, which in turn benefits buried object detection, sonar operation and acoustic communications in shallow water. Another goal for the out years is to develop the proposed research apparatus into an operational system for in situ classification of ocean bottoms for Naval fleet operations.

The long-term goal of our research is to develop a reliable and accurate global ionospheric weather monitoring and forecast system which can serve as a prototype for an operational system. To achieve this goal, we are developing and validating advanced data assimilation techniques to analyze diverse sources of ionospheric measurements. The assimilation of ionospheric measurements into mature first-principle ionospheric models will produce physically consistent, accurate ionospheric analysis, as well as the determination of important ionospheric drivers. As a result, this allows the generation of more accurate ionospheric weather forecasts. Our research activities maximally leverage the development of data assimilation techniques in the meteorological community. The application of general data assimilation techniques to ionospheric data analysis requires us to develop new mathematical techniques for both ionospheric modeling and optimization. This research will also help improve our understanding of the physics of the ionosphere and its response to magnetic storms, leading to a better characterization of severe space weather effects on power grids, communication, navigation, and other applications.

The Monitoring, Analysis, and Interpretation Tool Arsenal (MAITA) is a knowledge-based tool that helps reduce time and effort of constructing a monitoring system at the start and of modifying an operational system of monitors to address special and temporary concerns. The architecture provides a rich library of monitoring systems enabling easy composition, modification, testing and abstraction of these library elements.

The paper argues that there is no discrete operational level of war. Operational art is merely a function that needs to be performed. Operational art is the application of mechanical tactical means to achieve abstract strategic ends. At the core of this art is the concept of operational shock. Maneuver theory seeks ways to defeat the will of an enemy without having to destroy all his forces. Operational shock applies this thinking to the operational system of the enemy. A military operational system comprises its mission, its forces and the geographic space it influences. Operational shock aims to deprive this system of the ability to achieve its purpose and therefore enables us to move away from the need to destroy all of the enemy's fielded forces. It is therefore the core of operational art, which arose from the difficulty attendant on defeat of the nation-in-arms. The creation of operational shock is the organizing idea behind operational design and the conceptual link between tactical action and strategic results. The paper discusses some aspects of operational design that may enhance the prospects of inflicting operational shock.

This report provides the results of a brief study of the possible effects of ionospheric scintillation on a space-based, foliage-penetration (FOPEN), ground moving-target indication (GMTI) radar operating in the ultrahigh-frequency (UHF) band. The results of publicly available data and analyses are applied to a specific strawman FOPEN space-based radar (SBR) system operating from low-Earth orbit. Performance degradations due to ionospheric scintillation and a combination of ionospheric scintillation and internal clutter motion caused by wind are calculated for a 3 m/s target minimum detectable velocity (MDV) at 15-deg grazing, point parameters felt to be minimally acceptable for an operational system. Space-time adaptive processing (STAP) is used to provide the clutter rejection necessary for successful performance. Implications of ionospheric scintillation for synthetic aperture-based GMTI processing are also discussed.

This report is the verification and validation of the Satellite Marine-layer/Evaporation Duct Height (SMDH) technique under development by NAWC Point Mugu California. The technique provides an estimate of the cloud-top height of stratocumulus clouds in the marine boundary layer for the area viewed by a polar orbiting weather satellite. The top of the marine boundary layer is the optimum coupling height for elevated ducts. Knowledge of the elevated duct height over the tactical battlespace is quite important. The SMDH technique is one component of a potential shipboard operational system to provide estimates of elevated duct height. The SMDH technique is verified using NOAA AVHRR satellite data and coincident rawinsonde or aircraft measurements from the 1987 FIRE and 1994 MAST data sets The SMDH technique which uses an empirical relationship to relate the satellite cloud-top temperature sea-surface temperature and cloud-top height is quite useful. There are advantages to using a physically-based model rather than an empirical equation, to estimate cloud-top height. Some of these advantages are demonstrated using the Naval Postgraduate School's physically-based model with the FIRE and MAST data sets. Conclusions/recommendations include (1) the automation of a cloud-top estimation technique is achievable and development should continue, (2) use a physically-based model, rather than an empirical equation, as the core component of the cloud-top height estimation process.

The broad objective of the present study is to design an improved two-tiered classification system and to compare its classification efficiency to the current operational aptitude area (AA) system. The total data set includes about 260,000 recruits serving in 170 different entry-level MOS during 1987-1989. The set includes all available ASVAB/Skill Qualification Test (SQT) data for MOS with adequate sample sizes collected by ARI during this time frame. The proposed system to be evaluated in this study would use an invisible or black-box first tier in which separate assignment variables (AVs) are computed for up to 150 job families. The first tier AVs are to be used in assigning recruits to entry-level MOS. The second tier is used in recruiting, counseling and administration. The proposed system to be evaluated in the visible second tier uses up to 17 families. It is proposed that the aptitude area scores of the visible system be recorded on each soldier's personnel record. The principal finding of the present study is that the unbiased overall mean predicted performance (MPP) of the 150 job family structure is .195 compared to the MPP for the existing operational system of .023, a gain of more than eight fold. The unbiased overall MPP for the 17 job families is .146. The 17 family system is obtained by shredding the existing AA families within the boundaries of the operational classification families to maximize the Horst index. Findings continue to support an early differential assignment theory (DAT) principle that maximum MPP is obtainable by using AVs for all jobs having adequate or stable validity data. The results clearly demonstrate that considerable classification efficiency is potentially obtainable from the existing ASVAB if it is used in accordance with DAT principles.

The broad objective of the present study is to design an improved two-tiered classification system and to compare its classification efficiency to the current operational aptitude area (AA) system. The total data set includes about 260,000 recruits serving in 170 different entry-level MOS during 1987-1989. The set includes all available ASVAB/Skill Qualification Test (SQT) data for MOS with adequate sample sizes collected by ARI during this time frame. The proposed system to be evaluated in this study would use an invisible or black-box first tier in which separate assignment variables (AVs) are computed for up to 150 job families. The first tier AVs are to be used in assigning recruits to entry-level MOS. The second tier is used in recruiting, counseling and administration. The proposed system to be evaluated in the visible second tier uses up to 17 families. It is proposed that the aptitude area scores of the visible system be recorded on each soldier's personnel record. The principal finding of the present study is that the unbiased overall mean predicted performance (MPP) of the 150 job family structure is .195 compared to the MPP for the existing operational system of .023, a gain of more than eight fold. The unbiased overall MPP for the 17 job families is .146. The 17 family system is obtained by shredding the existing AA families within the boundaries of the operational classification families to maximize the Horst index. Findings continue to support an early differential assignment theory (DAT) principle that maximum MPP is obtainable by using AVs for all jobs having adequate or stable validity data. The results clearly demonstrate that considerable classification efficiency is potentially obtainable from the existing ASVAB if it is used in accordance with DAT principles.

Numerous and complex regulations govern scientific and technical information (STI). To help you understand these regulations and how they impact your work, the Office of Naval Technology had this handbook prepared. STI regulations-both the Navy's and DoD's-have been explained in the context of how STI is managed within the Department of the Navy. The information in this handbook is based on the concept that scientific and technical information is part of the entire RDT and E process. You, as a Navy scientist or engineer, are involved with STI from the conceptual phase of your project until its transfer as an operational system. The Navy operates its scientific and technical information program (STIP) to: (1) Assist Navy scientists and engineers in their work; (2) Ensure that scientific and technical information provides the maximum contribution to advancing science and engineering; (3) Expeditiously, effectively, and efficiently conduct and manage Navy research, engineering, and studies; (4) Eliminate unnecessary duplication of resources and efforts; and (5) Encourage and expedite the exchange and use of STI.

This report presents the interim results of research to develop a personal computer-based hypertext system to help U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) personnel perform constructibility reviews on construction design documents. It identifies the most promising sources of constructiblity review information, presents formulation of a concept prototype as well as review comments obtained after a demonstration to USACE Omaha District field design reviewers, and identifies future efforts required to develop a fully operational system. The BCO ADVISOR represents the second step in design review. The Automated Review Management System (ARMS) improved the management of design review. The BCO ADVISOR will improve the performance of design review.

The purpose of the Advanced On the job Training System (AOTS) transition Plan is to develop and document orderly plans for the transition of AOTS to the next stage of its development and for the movement of the operational system produced, from the prototype use to Air Force-wide deployment. This paper documents a technical analysis and assessment of the factors that must be considered in the transition of the program from an AFHRL technology demonstration program to an Air Force Automated Data System (ADS). The Transition Plan describes the prototype system used to establish a base from which the Transition Plan will depart, the steps and points necessary to progress to an operational system, and the recommended approach for the next stage of development. (sdw)

This report discusses critical symbology issues and areas of symbology research considered to merit additional inquiry. Variables that could impact symbol effectiveness are categorized and discussed as personnel (e.g., soldier experience), operational (e.g., combat stress), and technological (e.g., display type) influences. Three themes emerged from this review. First, across all agencies, operations, and systems, there is a recognized need for improved symbologies in order to maintain or enhance efficiency under increasingly difficult operational conditions. Second, there is a general, if ill-defined, call for some degree of symbology standardization. Third, one or more aspects of a traditional systems approach to design are frequently considered crucial elements of the operational system for which a symbol set is being developed. Finally, two actions appear essential in charting an efficient and meaningful course for symbology research. First, an assessment must be made of the current status of all symbology research programs regarding mission, approaches, problems, and plans. Second, a mechanism must be created to assure the continued exchange of up-to-date information among members of the symbology research community.

The objectives of this study program were to establish the system requirements, to develop conceptual designs, and to analyze the feasibility of various system designs for cargo helicopters to acquire external loads without the need for manual attachment of the load to the helicopters in a loading operation. Current technology for handling external helicopter loads were reviewed. Applicable cargo handling technology in commercial and maritime operation was also surveyed. The characteristics of helicopter external loads and lifting provisions were analysed. Army air transportability requirements were established for helicopters to identify technical and operational system design requirements for automatic load acquisition. Various conceptual system designs were formulated and system feasibility analyses were conducted.

Early software error models by Shooman and Jelinski-Moranda related the number of errors in a large software systems to the rate of error removal. Expressions for the number of remaining errors as the software undergoes debugging were formulated and additional assumptions were made to relate the number of residual errors to the operational system reliability. One of the key assumptions of the above models was that the sum of the errors removed and those remaining in the program is constant. This report adds a major refinement to the above models by introducing the possibility of error generation during debugging. In this refinement the error generation terms are modeled in several different ways: proportional to the number of detected errrors, corrected errors, the number of remaining errors, or some function of these effects. The correction rate is assumed to be a function of the manpower deployed on the project, thus permitting the use of the model to investigate optimum manpower deployment strategies. The effects on the economics of debugging due to error growth have also been analyzed. (Author)

A design guide for Head-Up Displays (HUDs) has been prepared to assist the HUD engineer by providing in one source a list of design criteria for HUDs. The criteria are based on a review of existing HUD specifications and HUD research. Contents: Definitions; System Characteristics; Operational System Criteria; Display Criteria; Symbology Criteria; Primary Flight Reference Criteria.

This contractor has two major objectives. The first was to build, test, and deliver to the government an entry control system using speaker verification (voice authentication) as the mechanism for verifying the user's claimed identity. This system included a physical mantrap, with an integral weight scale to prevent more than one user from gaining access with one verification (tailgating). The speaker verification part of the entry control system contained all the updates and embellishments to the algorithm that was developed earlier for the BISS (Base and Installation Security System) system under contract with the Electronic Systems Division of the USAF. These updates were tested prior to and during the contract on an operational system used at Texas Instruments in Dallas, Texas, for controlling entry to the Corporate Information Center (CIC). (Author)

Demand for predicting field work conditions or off-road trafficability comes from agricultural, civil and military sectors. The spatial and temporal resolution of predictions is dependent upon application. The objective of the Bristol Off-Road Trafficability Scheme (BORTS) is to develop an operational system to predict off-road trafficability on a sq km scale for application to route management problems. The system design allows only the use of readily available data and highlights user friendliness as an important facet of the software technology. This new predictive technology is based on well established physical hydrological and evaporational processes along with a newly developed soil strength-soil moisture physical relationship. The Variable Source Simulator 2 (VSAS2) is available for use within the scheme. A route management scheme demonstrates the utility of the scheme and allows initial comparisons between the BORTS and the established U.S. Corps of Engineers system for predicting soil moisture and soil strength (SMSP model). This report describes the system development, use of the system, limitations, initial comparisons with the SMSP model and future development. The computer program was written in FORTRAN 77 and is listed in the appendices along with a code glossary. Great Britain.

Non-lethal weapons to control civil disturbances have had inherent limitations in their attempt to be non-lethal. A ringed air foil rubber projectile combines the benefits of a large effective impact area with good flight characteristics at relatively low velocity over an extended range. Such a projectile was used as a basis for an operational system that would provide a non-lethal weapon for control of civil disturbances or riots. The final system met all requirements that were initially established except for launcher cycle life. The life of the non-metallic keys that are fastened to the launcher cup to provide projectile rotation fell 30% short of the required 500 cycles. The investigations included a launcher impact system, projectile banding requirements, material for rotation of a launcher cup, a method of carrying and loading projectiles, and a system for stopping a bullet within the launcher.

An alternative to present SQTs for tactical data systems is the concept of a computer-based embedded SQT administered on the operational system or simulator to accomplish standardized, objective, hands-on skill qualification assessment. This paper describes a computer-based SQT Hands-On Component developed for TACFIRE Artillery Control Console Operators, MOS 13C, using the PLANIT courseware authoring language. The SQT complies with TRADOC policy and procedures for SQT development and validation (TRADOC Reg 351-2, Pam 351-2). An expert tryout for content validity and a representative-soldier tryout for feasibility of administration were conducted. A method for diagnosing and correcting logic errors in the courseware (vs. operators errors) was applied. Benefits of computer-based SQT testing include: maximum fidelity attained by utilizing the operational system; control, monitoring, and scoring performed by the tactical system computer; centralized or field unit testing capability; immediate, detailed performance feedback provided; test results compatible in format with TRADOC guidelines.

This report represents the results of a project in which decompilation techniques were used to identify the essential characteristics of a high-level progamming language suitable for real-time training device systems. The project consisted of three phases. First, a decompiler written in FORTRAN was implemented to map assembly language for a Xerox SIGMA 7 computer into a collection of tables and data forming the basis for phase 3. Second, a structures collection of 33 modules representing an operational system for an F-4 Trainer was decompiled. Finally, the data gathered from phase 2 was analyzed to identify language features appropriate for some high-level, application-oriented programming language. The results of the decompilation showed that a hybrid of FORTRAN including bit-strings and locator data was the most appropriate high-level language for trainer applications. (Authgor)

Faced with the problem of system design, which includes choices of hardware (including some not yet developed), allocation of functions among men and machines, and specification of procedures, designers may find that it is too expensive in both time and money to build even prototypes of versions to be considered. On the other hand, the large number of interactions present in large scale systems means that even the most carefully designed set of flow charts and specifications may not result in an operating system which satisfies the requirements. An alternative course of action is to construct a simulation model which can be programmed and run on a computer. The model may be partially validated on the current operational system, but the ultimate value of the simulation lies in its use in an untested region of the parameter space, namely, that which contains the possible systems to be considered but not yet built.

A significant amount of human factors data that pertained to missile system safety was accumulated during the course of various operational system test exercises. These data were in the form of incidents (deviations/ difficulties), which were gathered during the direct observation of various job operations. Much of the basic data and the results of preliminary analyses have been reported previously in some 36 monthly periodic and logical function reports. The purpose of this report is to provide additional pertinent information; it was obtained as a result of further updating and detailed analyses of the data, and oriented toward the following five objectives: (1) over-all analysis and evaluation of basic data; (2) prevent recurrence of problems; (3) information for planning a system safety engineering program; (4) basic reference and training material; and (5) descriptive and explanatory information.

A weighted factors promotion system was field-tested and validated using data from the promotion cycle of the Alaskan air command. The weighted factors composite score excluding a promotion board component were compared within promotion board evaluations under the present operational system. Overlaps between the two ranks imply promotion of the same individuals by both systems. However, inconsistencies and unexplainable discrepancies in the ranking by promotion board scores were found in some few instances. It was concluded that, within the specialties analyzed, practically all the individuals promoted by the board system would also have been promoted under the weighted factors system. If it can be assumed that the sample was representative of the Air Force-wide population of promotion-eligible airmen in grades E-3 through E-6, then it can be further assumed that the weighted factors system provides a valid airman promotion system in which the selection criteria are visible and equitable.

A technique for determining the mass of large rocket motors during burning, and an experimental system developed for use with the NOTS- designed three-component static-test stand at the Skytop facility, are described. The technique involves mounting the rocket motor on springs and continuously exciting the spring mass system natural frequency. The theoretical design of the control system is discussed and theoretical system-performance characteristics are compared with those of the experimental system. Results of an analog simulation study conducted in two degrees of freedom are included in the appendix. Analysis of data from an evaluation test involving the static firing of a large rocket motor, indicates that a 2% accuracy in mass measurement is attainable with the experimental system. Criteria for the design of an operational system that will produce an accuracy of 1% are presented.