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With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals' persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes., (© 2021 by the Ecological Society of America.)

Spatial gradients in population growth, such as across latitudinal or elevational gradients, are often assumed to primarily be driven by variation in climate, and are frequently used to infer species' responses to climate change. Here, we use a novel demographic, mixed-model approach to dissect the contributions of climate variables vs. other latitudinal or local site effects on spatiotemporal variation in population performance in three perennial bunchgrasses. For all three species, we find that performance of local populations decreases with warmer and drier conditions, despite latitudinal trends of decreasing population growth toward the cooler and wetter northern portion of each species' range. Thus, latitudinal gradients in performance are not predictive of either local or species-wide responses to climate. This pattern could be common, as many environmental drivers, such as habitat quality or species' interactions, are likely to vary with latitude or elevation, and thus influence or oppose climate responses., (© 2020 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Ecological Society of America.)

We developed a new climate-sensitive vegetation state-and-transition simulation model (CV-STSM) to simulate future vegetation at a fine spatial grain commensurate with the scales of human land-use decisions, and under the joint influences of changing climate, site productivity, and disturbance. CV-STSM integrates outputs from four different modeling systems. Successional changes in tree species composition and stand structure were represented as transition probabilities and organized into a state-and-transition simulation model. States were characterized based on assessments of both current vegetation and of projected future vegetation from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). State definitions included sufficient detail to support the integration of CV-STSM with an agent-based model of land-use decisions and a mechanistic model of fire behavior and spread. Transition probabilities were parameterized using output from a stand biometric model run across a wide range of site productivities. Biogeographic and biogeochemical projections from the DGVM were used to adjust the transition probabilities to account for the impacts of climate change on site productivity and potential vegetation type. We conducted experimental simulations in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. Our simulation landscape incorporated detailed new assessments of critically imperiled Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) savanna and prairie habitats among the suite of existing and future vegetation types. The experimental design fully crossed four future climate scenarios with three disturbance scenarios. CV-STSM showed strong interactions between climate and disturbance scenarios. All disturbance scenarios increased the abundance of oak savanna habitat, but an interaction between the most intense disturbance and climate-change scenarios also increased the abundance of subtropical tree species. Even so, subtropical tree species were far less abundant at the end of simulations in CV-STSM than in the dynamic global vegetation model simulations. Our results indicate that dynamic global vegetation models may overestimate future rates of vegetation change, especially in the absence of stand-replacing disturbances. Modeling tools such as CV-STSM that simulate rates and direction of vegetation change affected by interactions and feedbacks between climate and land-use change can help policy makers, land managers, and society as a whole develop effective plans to adapt to rapidly changing climate.

Whether species will be extirpated in their current geographic ranges due to rapidly changing climate, and if so, whether they can avoid extinction by shifting their distributions are pressing questions for biodiversity conservation. However, forecasts of climate change impacts on species' geographic distributions rarely incorporate a demographic understanding of species' responses to climate. Because many biotic and abiotic factors at multiple scales control species' range limits, experimentation is essential to establish underlying mechanisms. We used a manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a natural climate gradient to examine demographic responses of 12 prairie species with northern range limits within the Pacific Northwest, USA. During the first year, warming decreased recruitment of species even at the coolest edge of their current ranges, but this effect disappeared when they were moved poleward beyond their current ranges. This response was largely driven by differences in germination rates. Other vital rates responded in unique and sometimes opposing ways (survivorship vs. fitness) to species' current ranges and climate change, and were mediated by indirect effects of climate on competition and nutrient availability. Our results demonstrate the importance of using regional-scale climate manipulations and the need for longer-term experiments on the demographic responses that control species' distributions.

Nitrogen (N) is the primary growth-limiting nutrient in many terrestrial ecosystems, and therefore plant production per unit N taken up (i.e., N use efficiency, NUE) is a fundamentally important component of ecosystem function. Nitrogen use efficiency comprises two components: N productivity (A(N), plant production per peak biomass N content) and the mean residence time of N in plant biomass (MRT(N)). We utilized a five-year fertilization experiment to examine the manner in which increases in N and phosphorus (P) availability affected plant NUE at multiple biological scales (i.e., from leaf to community level). We fertilized a natural gradient of nutrient-limited peatland ecosystems in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA, with 6 g N x m(-2) x yr(-1), 2 g P x m(-2) x yr(-1), or a combination of N and P. Our objectives were to determine how changes in carbon and N allocation within a plant to leaf and woody tissue and changes in species composition within a community, both above- and belowground, would affect (1) NUE; (2) the adaptive trade-off between the components of NUE; (3) the efficiency with which plants acquired N from the soil (N uptake efficiency); and (4) plant community production per unit soil N availability (N response efficiency, NRE). As expected, N and P addition generally increased aboveground production and N uptake. In particular, P availability strongly affected the way in which plants took up and used N. Nitrogen use efficiency response to nutrient addition was not straightforward. Nitrogen use efficiency differed between leaf and woody tissue, among species, and across the ombrotrophic-minerotrophic gradient because plants and communities were adapted to maximize either A(N) or MRT(N), but not both concurrently. Increased N availability strongly decreased plant and community N uptake efficiency, while increased P availability increased N uptake efficiency, particularly in a nitrogen-fixing shrub. Nitrogen uptake efficiency was more important in controlling overall plant community response to soil N availability than was NUE, and above- and belowground community N uptake efficiencies responded to nutrient addition in a similar manner. Our results demonstrate that plants respond to nutrient availability at multiple biological scales, and we suggest that N uptake efficiency may be a more representative measurement of plant responses to nutrient availability gradients than plant NUE.

Peatlands comprise a globally important carbon pool whose input-output budgets may be significantly altered by climate change. To experimentally determine the sensitivity of the carbon stored in peatlands to climate change, we constructed a mesocosm facility with 54 peat monoliths from a bog and fen in northern Minnesota, USA. These mesocosms were subjected to nine combinations of heat and water-table levels over eight years. Bog mesocosms initially accumulated soil carbon, with greater gains in wetter mesocosms, but after three years no further water-table effects occurred. In contrast, fen mesocosms lost or had no change in soil carbon, with the greatest losses in drier and warmer mesocosms. Changes in soil-carbon storage resulted in concomitant changes in water-table depth, so that water-table depths were similar to those in the natural source sites by the end of the experiment regardless of the initial treatment. These results were primarily due to water-table effects on Sphagnum moss production in the bog mesocosms and to a more complicated suite of warming and water-table effects on production and decomposition in the fen mesocosms. We show that different kinds of peatlands will rapidly gain or lose carbon following hydrological disturbance until they return to their characteristic ("equilibrium") water-table levels. Our results illustrate the potential for a rapid homeostatic response of these ecosystems to future climate change at small spatial scales. Climate change will likely also interact with other carbon cycle-hydrological feedbacks at the scale of the entire peatland over longer time frames and larger spatial scales., (© 2008 by the Ecological Society of America.)