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Monetary policy is determined by the regional central bank, the Banque centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'ouest (BCEAO), which prioritises inflation-targeting in its eight member countries, as well as [...]

The Banque centrale du Congo (BCC, the central bank) has signalled its willingness to raise interest rates, if inflation rises further and the rate of currency depreciation suddenly accelerates, although [...]

Monetary policy is determined by UEMOA's central bank, the Banque centrale des Etats de l'Afrique de l'ouest (BCEAO), which prioritises inflation-targeting in its eight member countries, as well as maintaining [...]

The short-term focus will remain on the dismantling of the unorthodox economic programme that started in 2021, including tighter monetary policy, which will reassure investors. These policies are designed to [...]

We forecast that the RBI will start its monetary easing cycle with a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy interest rate (the repo rate) to 6.25% in December 2024, as it [...]

After the war precipitated a sharp contraction in domestic demand in late 2023 and inflation concerns abated, the BOI began its loosening cycle in January by cutting its main policy [...]

We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue its easing cycle at a gradual pace, amid pockets of resilient services inflation. At its last monetary policy meeting, on September [...]

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS, the central bank) runs an inflation-targeting monetary policy, with a headline inflation target on a three-year horizon of 3% (±1.5 percentage points). Its main [...]

The yen will strengthen against the US dollar, especially after the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) cut interest rates in September. The pace of yen appreciation will be moderate. [...]

We expect the Bank of Korea (BOK, South Korea's central bank) to start an easing cycle by cutting its policy rate, currently at 3.5%, by 25 basis points at its [...]

The Real has been under pressure since mid-2024 owing to investor concerns about the strength of-and Lula's commitment to-Brazil's fiscal framework, as well as narrower interest-rate differentials with the US [...]

Palestine does not issue its own currency; it uses a combination of Israeli shekels, Jordanian dinars and US dollars. As a result, and given that trade is primarily conducted via [...]

The Canadian dollar has depreciated as a result of the widening interest-rate differential between Canada and the US, as the BoC has moved to reduce interest rates rapidly, whereas the [...]

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB, the central bank) kept the benchmark repo rate at a 15-year high of 8.25% in July, marking a seventh consecutive hold, which leaves the [...]

After cutting the policy rate by 100 basis points in January, the Bank of Ghana (BoG, the central bank) has kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 29% at its [...]

The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA, the central bank) lacks an inflation-targeting framework but sets an informal, adjustable, medium-term target of single-digit price growth, which we deem to be achievable [...]

Given the Qatari riyal's peg to the US dollar, we expect the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) to take interest-rate changes announced by the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US central bank) [...]

The riyal's peg to the US dollar means that the main policy rate of the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) will continue to track the interest-rate changes announced by the Federal [...]

The presidential appointment of a political ally, Timur Suleymenov, a former economy minister, as chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK, the central bank) in 2023 has led to [...]

We forecast that the RBI will cut the policy interest rate (the repo rate) by 25 basis points to 6.25% in the last quarter of 2024, as it takes account [...]

We believe that the Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR, the central bank) is almost at the end of its monetary-loosening cycle, having reduced its policy rate by 425 basis [...]

The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) is working with the Fund to fine-tune monetary policy. Barbados's fixed exchange rate and long-standing capital controls shelter the economy from the effects of [...]

After an official transition to an interest-rate-targeting operational framework in February 2024, in August the monetary policy committee of the Banque centrale de Madagascar (the central bank) raised interest rates, [...]

Despite price pressures remaining elevated, aggravated by the drought and weakness of the kwacha, in mid-August the Bank of Zambia (BoZ, the central bank) kept its main policy rate unchanged [...]

We expect the Bank of Korea (BOK, South Korea's central bank) to keep its policy rate at 3.5% until October 2024. By then, subsiding domestic inflation and a shift to [...]

We expect the Bank of Thailand (BOT, the central bank) to commence monetary easing in the final quarter of 2024. Policy priorities will return to supporting growth, given an expectation [...]

The Bank of England (BoE, the central bank) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% on August 1st, after 14 consecutive rises. This was after the first cut [...]

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS, the central bank) uses the exchange rate as its monetary policy lever. It will intervene heavily in currency markets to maintain exchange-rate stability (within [...]

Political and economic outlook Pakistan is a lower middle-income economy with chronic imbalances on its fiscal and external accounts. Concerns about political stability, domestic security and weakness in economic fundamentals [...]

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS, the central bank) runs an inflation-targeting monetary policy, with a headline inflation target on a three-year horizon of 3% (±1.5 percentage points). Its main [...]

We believe that a slowing in the economy-with consumers reducing their spending, real wage gains decelerating and the number of new jobs gradually falling-points to the Federal Reserve (Fed, the [...]

We expect the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), or CBC, to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 2% until December. Consumer price inflation will remain [...]

The National Bank of Romania (NBR, the central bank) cut interest rates by another 25 basis points at its meeting in August, leaving the main policy rate at 6.5%. This [...]

The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to its US counterpart within a range of HK$7.75-7.85:US$1. This means that local policy interest rates are determined by the actions of the Federal [...]

With the war precipitating a sharp contraction in domestic demand in late 2023 and inflation concerns abating, the BOI began its loosening cycle in January by cutting its main policy [...]

We expect the currency to end 2024 at Kc24.8:EUR1. The koruna has depreciated to about Kc25.3:EUR1 since June, owing to a narrower interest-rate spread with the European Central Bank (ECB) [...]

The primary mandate of the Czech National Bank (CNB, the central bank) is to maintain price stability. The CNB cut its official interest rate by 250 basis points between December [...]

The yen will remain weak against the US dollar until late 2024, as we expect the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) only to start cutting rates in September. Despite [...]

We expect inflation to average just under 58% in 2024-the highest rate in the OECD. As expected, annual inflation peaked at more than 75% in May. Although it slowed to [...]

As Panama lacks a central bank and has a dollarised system, US monetary developments have the greatest influence on domestic interest rates. We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed, the US [...]

Political and economic outlook Azerbaijan is an emerging economy with a large oil and gas sector. Diversification efforts have been slow, and only incremental progress will be made in the [...]

Not long ago central bankers everywhere were jacking up interest rates. No longer. In June the European Central Bank reduced rates for the first time since before the covid-19 pandemic. [...]

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS, the central bank) uses the exchange rate as its monetary policy lever. It will intervene heavily in currency markets to maintain exchange-rate stability (within [...]

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB, the central bank) kept the benchmark repo rate at a 15-year high of 8.25% in July, marking a seventh consecutive hold, which leaves the [...]

Political and economic outlook Azerbaijan is an emerging economy with a large oil and gas sector. Diversification efforts have been slow, and only incremental progress will be made in the [...]

We forecast that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV, the central bank) will maintain the key policy interest rate, the benchmark refinancing rate, at 4.5% for the remainder of 2024, [...]

The Canadian dollar has depreciated as a result of the widening interest-rate differential between Canada and the US, as the BoC has moved to reduce interest rates rapidly, whereas the [...]

So far the Reserve Bank of Vanuatu (RBV, the central bank) has opted against raising its policy interest rate, the discount rate, from the low level of 2.25% to which [...]

We expect the Bank of Thailand (BOT, the central bank) to commence monetary easing in the latter part of 2024. Policy priorities will return to supporting growth, given an expectation [...]

The Bank of England (BoE, the central bank) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% on August 1st, after 14 consecutive rises. The headline inflation rate has remained [...]