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Structural brain aging has demonstrated strong inter-individual heterogeneity and mirroring patterns with brain development. However, due to the lack of large-scale longitudinal neuroimaging studies, most of the existing research focused on the cross-sectional changes of brain aging. In this investigation, we present a data-driven approach that incorporate both cross-sectional changes and longitudinal trajectories of structural brain aging and identified two brain aging patterns among 37,013 healthy participants from UK Biobank. Participants with accelerated brain aging also demonstrated accelerated biological aging, cognitive decline and increased genetic susceptibilities to major neuropsychiatric disorders. Further, by integrating longitudinal neuroimaging studies from a multi-center adolescent cohort, we validated the ‘last in, first out’ mirroring hypothesis and identified brain regions with manifested mirroring patterns between brain aging and brain development. Genomic analyses revealed risk loci and genes contributing to accelerated brain aging and delayed brain development, providing molecular basis for elucidating the biological mechanisms underlying brain aging and related disorders.

Substance use, including cigarettes and cannabis, is associated with poorer sustained attention in late adolescence and early adulthood. Previous studies were predominantly cross-sectional or under-powered and could not indicate if impairment in sustained attention was a predictor of substance use or a marker of the inclination to engage in such behavior. This study explored the relationship between sustained attention and substance use across a longitudinal span from ages 14 to 23 in over 1000 participants. Behaviors and brain connectivity associated with diminished sustained attention at age 14 predicted subsequent increases in cannabis and cigarette smoking, establishing sustained attention as a robust biomarker for vulnerability to substance use. Individual differences in network strength relevant to sustained attention were preserved across developmental stages and sustained attention networks generalized to participants in an external dataset. In summary, brain networks of sustained attention are robust, consistent, and able to predict aspects of later substance use.

Alcohol misuse during adolescence (AAM) has been associated with disruptive development of adolescent brains. In this longitudinal machine learning (ML) study, we could predict AAM significantly from brain structure (T1-weighted imaging and DTI) with accuracies of 73 -78% in the IMAGEN dataset (n∼1182). Our results not only show that structural differences in brain can predict AAM, but also suggests that such differences might precede AAM behavior in the data. We predicted 10 phenotypes of AAM at age 22 using brain MRI features at ages 14, 19, and 22. Binge drinking was found to be the most predictable phenotype. The most informative brain features were located in the ventricular CSF, and in white matter tracts of the corpus callosum, internal capsule, and brain stem. In the cortex, they were spread across the occipital, frontal, and temporal lobes and in the cingulate cortex. We also experimented with four different ML models and several confound control techniques. Support Vector Machine (SVM) with rbf kernel and Gradient Boosting consistently performed better than the linear models, linear SVM and Logistic Regression. Our study also demonstrates how the choice of the predicted phenotype, ML model, and confound correction technique are all crucial decisions in an explorative ML study analyzing psychiatric disorders with small effect sizes such as AAM.

Adolescence is a common time for initiation of alcohol use and development of alcohol use disorders. The present study investigates neuroanatomical predictors for trajectories of future alcohol use based on a novel voxel-wise whole-brain structural equation modeling framework. In 1814 healthy adolescents of the IMAGEN sample, the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) was acquired at three measurement occasions across five years. Based on a two-part latent growth curve model, we conducted whole-brain analyses on structural MRI data at age 14, predicting change in alcohol use score over time. Higher grey-matter volumes in the caudate nucleus and the left cerebellum at age 14 years were predictive of stronger increase in alcohol use score over 5 years. The study is the first to demonstrate the feasibility of running separate voxel-wise structural equation models thereby opening new avenues for data analysis in brain imaging.