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Rare genetic diseases affect millions, and identifying causal DNA variants is essential for patient care. Therefore, it is imperative to estimate the effect of each independent variant and improve their pathogenicity classification. Our study of 140 214 unrelated UK Biobank (UKB) participants found that each of them carries a median of 7 variants previously reported as pathogenic or likely pathogenic. We focused on 967 diagnostic-grade gene (DGG) variants for rare bleeding, thrombotic, and platelet disorders (BTPDs) observed in 12 367 UKB participants. By association analysis, for a subset of these variants, we estimated effect sizes for platelet count and volume, and odds ratios for bleeding and thrombosis. Variants causal of some autosomal recessive platelet disorders revealed phenotypic consequences in carriers. Loss-of-function variants in MPL, which cause chronic amegakaryocytic thrombocytopenia if biallelic, were unexpectedly associated with increased platelet counts in carriers. We also demonstrated that common variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for platelet count or thrombosis risk may influence the penetrance of rare variants in BTPD DGGs on their associated hemostasis disorders. Network-propagation analysis applied to an interactome of 18 410 nodes and 571 917 edges showed that GWAS variants with large effect sizes are enriched in DGGs and their first-order interactors. Finally, we illustrate the modifying effect of polygenic scores for platelet count and thrombosis risk on disease severity in participants carrying rare variants in TUBB1 or PROC and PROS1, respectively. Our findings demonstrate the power of association analyses using large population datasets in improving pathogenicity classifications of rare variants., (© 2023 by The American Society of Hematology. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), permitting only noncommercial, nonderivative use with attribution. All other rights reserved.)

Background: Low-risk limits recommended for alcohol consumption vary substantially across different national guidelines. To define thresholds associated with lowest risk for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease, we studied individual-participant data from 599 912 current drinkers without previous cardiovascular disease., Methods: We did a combined analysis of individual-participant data from three large-scale data sources in 19 high-income countries (the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD, and the UK Biobank). We characterised dose-response associations and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) per 100 g per week of alcohol (12·5 units per week) across 83 prospective studies, adjusting at least for study or centre, age, sex, smoking, and diabetes. To be eligible for the analysis, participants had to have information recorded about their alcohol consumption amount and status (ie, non-drinker vs current drinker), plus age, sex, history of diabetes and smoking status, at least 1 year of follow-up after baseline, and no baseline history of cardiovascular disease. The main analyses focused on current drinkers, whose baseline alcohol consumption was categorised into eight predefined groups according to the amount in grams consumed per week. We assessed alcohol consumption in relation to all-cause mortality, total cardiovascular disease, and several cardiovascular disease subtypes. We corrected HRs for estimated long-term variability in alcohol consumption using 152 640 serial alcohol assessments obtained some years apart (median interval 5·6 years [5th-95th percentile 1·04-13·5]) from 71 011 participants from 37 studies., Findings: In the 599 912 current drinkers included in the analysis, we recorded 40 310 deaths and 39 018 incident cardiovascular disease events during 5·4 million person-years of follow-up. For all-cause mortality, we recorded a positive and curvilinear association with the level of alcohol consumption, with the minimum mortality risk around or below 100 g per week. Alcohol consumption was roughly linearly associated with a higher risk of stroke (HR per 100 g per week higher consumption 1·14, 95% CI, 1·10-1·17), coronary disease excluding myocardial infarction (1·06, 1·00-1·11), heart failure (1·09, 1·03-1·15), fatal hypertensive disease (1·24, 1·15-1·33); and fatal aortic aneurysm (1·15, 1·03-1·28). By contrast, increased alcohol consumption was log-linearly associated with a lower risk of myocardial infarction (HR 0·94, 0·91-0·97). In comparison to those who reported drinking >0-≤100 g per week, those who reported drinking >100-≤200 g per week, >200-≤350 g per week, or >350 g per week had lower life expectancy at age 40 years of approximately 6 months, 1-2 years, or 4-5 years, respectively., Interpretation: In current drinkers of alcohol in high-income countries, the threshold for lowest risk of all-cause mortality was about 100 g/week. For cardiovascular disease subtypes other than myocardial infarction, there were no clear risk thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped being associated with lower disease risk. These data support limits for alcohol consumption that are lower than those recommended in most current guidelines., Funding: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, European Union Framework 7, and European Research Council., (Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: The aim of this study was to systematically collate and appraise the available evidence regarding the association between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) and incident heart failure (HF) and the added value of hs-cTn in HF prediction., Background: Identification of subjects at high risk for HF and early risk factor modification with medications such as angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors may delay the onset of HF. Hs-cTn has been suggested as a prognostic marker for the incidence of first-ever HF in asymptomatic subjects., Methods: PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were systematically searched for prospective cohort studies published before January 2017 that reported associations between hs-cTn and incident HF in subjects without baseline HF. Study-specific multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis., Results: Data were collated from 16 studies with a total of 67,063 subjects and 4,165 incident HF events. The average age was 57 years, and 47% were women. Study quality was high (Newcastle-Ottawa score 8.2 of 9). In a comparison of participants in the top third with those in the bottom third of baseline values of hs-cTn, the pooled multivariate-adjusted HR for incident HF was 2.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.76 to 2.48; p < 0.001). Between-study heterogeneity was high, with an I 2 value of 80%. HRs were similar in men and women (2.29 [95% CI: 1.64 to 3.21] vs. 2.18 [95% CI: 1.68 to 2.81]) and for hs-cTnI and hs-cTnT (2.09 [95% CI: 1.53 to 2.85] vs. 2.11 [95% CI: 1.69 to 2.63]) and across other study-level characteristics. Further adjustment for B-type natriuretic peptide yielded a similar HR of 2.08 (95% CI: 1.64 to 2.65). Assay of hs-cTn in addition to conventional risk factors provided improvements in the C index of 1% to 3%., Conclusions: Available prospective studies indicate a strong association of hs-cTn with the risk of first-ever HF and significant improvements in HF prediction., (Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Limits on the frequency of whole blood donation exist primarily to safeguard donor health. However, there is substantial variation across blood services in the maximum frequency of donations allowed. We compared standard practice in the UK with shorter inter-donation intervals used in other countries., Methods: In this parallel group, pragmatic, randomised trial, we recruited whole blood donors aged 18 years or older from 25 centres across England, UK. By use of a computer-based algorithm, men were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 12-week (standard) versus 10-week versus 8-week inter-donation intervals, and women were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 16-week (standard) versus 14-week versus 12-week intervals. Participants were not masked to their allocated intervention group. The primary outcome was the number of donations over 2 years. Secondary outcomes related to safety were quality of life, symptoms potentially related to donation, physical activity, cognitive function, haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and deferrals because of low haemoglobin. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN24760606, and is ongoing but no longer recruiting participants., Findings: 45 263 whole blood donors (22 466 men, 22 797 women) were recruited between June 11, 2012, and June 15, 2014. Data were analysed for 45 042 (99·5%) participants. Men were randomly assigned to the 12-week (n=7452) versus 10-week (n=7449) versus 8-week (n=7456) groups; and women to the 16-week (n=7550) versus 14-week (n=7567) versus 12-week (n=7568) groups. In men, compared with the 12-week group, the mean amount of blood collected per donor over 2 years increased by 1·69 units (95% CI 1·59-1·80; approximately 795 mL) in the 8-week group and by 0·79 units (0·69-0·88; approximately 370 mL) in the 10-week group (p<0·0001 for both). In women, compared with the 16-week group, it increased by 0·84 units (95% CI 0·76-0·91; approximately 395 mL) in the 12-week group and by 0·46 units (0·39-0·53; approximately 215 mL) in the 14-week group (p<0·0001 for both). No significant differences were observed in quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function across randomised groups. However, more frequent donation resulted in more donation-related symptoms (eg, tiredness, breathlessness, feeling faint, dizziness, and restless legs, especially among men [for all listed symptoms]), lower mean haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and more deferrals for low haemoglobin (p<0·0001 for each) than those observed in the standard frequency groups., Interpretation: Over 2 years, more frequent donation than is standard practice in the UK collected substantially more blood without having a major effect on donors' quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function, but resulted in more donation-related symptoms, deferrals, and iron deficiency., Funding: NHS Blood and Transplant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Overweight and obesity are increasing worldwide. To help assess their relevance to mortality in different populations we conducted individual-participant data meta-analyses of prospective studies of body-mass index (BMI), limiting confounding and reverse causality by restricting analyses to never-smokers and excluding pre-existing disease and the first 5 years of follow-up., Methods: Of 10 625 411 participants in Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, and North America from 239 prospective studies (median follow-up 13·7 years, IQR 11·4-14·7), 3 951 455 people in 189 studies were never-smokers without chronic diseases at recruitment who survived 5 years, of whom 385 879 died. The primary analyses are of these deaths, and study, age, and sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs), relative to BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2)., Findings: All-cause mortality was minimal at 20·0-25·0 kg/m(2) (HR 1·00, 95% CI 0·98-1·02 for BMI 20·0-<22·5 kg/m(2); 1·00, 0·99-1·01 for BMI 22·5-<25·0 kg/m(2)), and increased significantly both just below this range (1·13, 1·09-1·17 for BMI 18·5-<20·0 kg/m(2); 1·51, 1·43-1·59 for BMI 15·0-<18·5) and throughout the overweight range (1·07, 1·07-1·08 for BMI 25·0-<27·5 kg/m(2); 1·20, 1·18-1·22 for BMI 27·5-<30·0 kg/m(2)). The HR for obesity grade 1 (BMI 30·0-<35·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·45, 95% CI 1·41-1·48; the HR for obesity grade 2 (35·0-<40·0 kg/m(2)) was 1·94, 1·87-2·01; and the HR for obesity grade 3 (40·0-<60·0 kg/m(2)) was 2·76, 2·60-2·92. For BMI over 25·0 kg/m(2), mortality increased approximately log-linearly with BMI; the HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI was 1·39 (1·34-1·43) in Europe, 1·29 (1·26-1·32) in North America, 1·39 (1·34-1·44) in east Asia, and 1·31 (1·27-1·35) in Australia and New Zealand. This HR per 5 kg/m(2) units higher BMI (for BMI over 25 kg/m(2)) was greater in younger than older people (1·52, 95% CI 1·47-1·56, for BMI measured at 35-49 years vs 1·21, 1·17-1·25, for BMI measured at 70-89 years; pheterogeneity<0·0001), greater in men than women (1·51, 1·46-1·56, vs 1·30, 1·26-1·33; pheterogeneity<0·0001), but similar in studies with self-reported and measured BMI., Interpretation: The associations of both overweight and obesity with higher all-cause mortality were broadly consistent in four continents. This finding supports strategies to combat the entire spectrum of excess adiposity in many populations., Funding: UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health., (Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC-BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Mutations in the gene encoding the bone morphogenetic protein receptor type II (BMPR2) are the commonest genetic cause of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, the effect of BMPR2 mutations on clinical phenotype and outcomes remains uncertain., Methods: We analysed individual participant data of 1550 patients with idiopathic, heritable, and anorexigen-associated PAH from eight cohorts that had been systematically tested for BMPR2 mutations. The primary outcome was the composite of death or lung transplantation. All-cause mortality was the secondary outcome. Hazard ratios (HRs) for death or transplantation and all-cause mortality associated with the presence of BMPR2 mutation were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models stratified by cohort., Findings: Overall, 448 (29%) of 1550 patients had a BMPR2 mutation. Mutation carriers were younger at diagnosis (mean age 35·4 [SD 14·8] vs 42·0 [17·8] years), had a higher mean pulmonary artery pressure (60·5 [13·8] vs 56·4 [15·3] mm Hg) and pulmonary vascular resistance (16·6 [8·3] vs 12·9 [8·3] Wood units), and lower cardiac index (2·11 [0·69] vs 2·51 [0·92] L/min per m(2); all p<0·0001). Patients with BMPR2 mutations were less likely to respond to acute vasodilator testing (3% [10 of 380] vs 16% [147 of 907]; p<0·0001). Among the 1164 individuals with available survival data, age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HRs comparing BMPR2 mutation carriers with non-carriers were 1·42 (95% CI 1·15-1·75; p=0·0011) for the composite of death or lung transplantation and 1·27 (1·00-1·60; p=0·046) for all-cause mortality. These HRs were attenuated after adjustment for potential mediators including pulmonary vascular resistance, cardiac index, and vasoreactivity. HRs for death or transplantation and all-cause mortality associated with BMPR2 mutation were similar in men and women, but higher in patients with a younger age at diagnosis (p=0·0030 for death or transplantation, p=0·011 for all-cause mortality)., Interpretation: Patients with PAH and BMPR2 mutations present at a younger age with more severe disease, and are at increased risk of death, and death or transplantation, compared with those without BMPR2 mutations., Funding: Cambridge NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris, INSERM, Université Paris-Sud, Intermountain Research and Medical Foundation, Vanderbilt University, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Beijing Natural Science Foundation., (Copyright © 2016 Evans et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: To determine whether C-reactive protein (CRP) in combination with a stroke risk stratification scheme can help in identifying transesophageal echocardiographic (TEE) markers of thromboembolism such as left atrial (LA)/left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus, severe LA/LAA spontaneous echocardiographic contrast (SEC), and aortic plaque ≥ 4 mm., Methods: Transthoracic echocardiography, TEE, and CRP measurement were performed at admission in 178 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation not receiving oral anticoagulant therapy. Patients were classified as at low, moderate, or high risk of thromboembolism based on seven clinical risk stratification schemes (SPAF, CHADS(2), Framingham, Birmingham/NICE, ACC/AHA/ESC 2006 guidelines, ACCP 2008, CHA(2)DS(2)VASc)., Results: Severe LA/LAA SEC, LA/LAA thrombus, and aortic plaque ≥ 4 mm were present in 6.2%, 6.7%, and 10.1% of patients, respectively. The combination of CRP with a cut-off value of 3.4 mg/L with the Birmingham/Nice or ACC/AHA/ESC 2006 risk score, led to a negative predictive value of 100% in low-risk patients and 91% in moderate-risk patients. For the detection of severe LA/LAA SEC or thrombus, a good discrimination (area under curve ≥ 0.70) using only clinical risk markers was observed for all classifications except for the Framingham and CHADS(2) risk scores. The addition of CRP did not improve the detection of LA/LAA SEC or thrombus, or of severe LA/LAA SEC, thrombus, or aortic plaque., Conclusion: The combination of clinical risk markers and CRP can help to exclude the presence of the TEE markers LA/LAA SEC or LA/LAA thrombus, particularly in patients classified at low or moderate risk of stroke., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling., Methods: In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125,222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51,441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136,226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6., Findings: The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele ≥0·04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34·3% (95% CI 30·4-38·2) and of interleukin 6 by 14·6% (10·7-18·4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7·5% (5·9-9·1) and of fibrinogen by 1·0% (0·7-1·3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3·4% (1·8-5·0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes., Interpretation: Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease., Funding: British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; UK National Institute of Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; BUPA Foundation., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Guidelines differ about the value of assessment of adiposity measures for cardiovascular disease risk prediction when information is available for other risk factors. We studied the separate and combined associations of body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio with risk of first-onset cardiovascular disease., Methods: We used individual records from 58 cohorts to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) per 1 SD higher baseline values (4.56 kg/m(2) higher BMI, 12.6 cm higher waist circumference, and 0.083 higher waist-to-hip ratio) and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification. Serial adiposity assessments were used to calculate regression dilution ratios., Results: Individual records were available for 221,934 people in 17 countries (14,297 incident cardiovascular disease outcomes; 1.87 million person-years at risk). Serial adiposity assessments were made in up to 63,821 people (mean interval 5.7 years [SD 3.9]). In people with BMI of 20 kg/m(2) or higher, HRs for cardiovascular disease were 1.23 (95% CI 1.17-1.29) with BMI, 1.27 (1.20-1.33) with waist circumference, and 1.25 (1.19-1.31) with waist-to-hip ratio, after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking status. After further adjustment for baseline systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol, corresponding HRs were 1.07 (1.03-1.11) with BMI, 1.10 (1.05-1.14) with waist circumference, and 1.12 (1.08-1.15) with waist-to-hip ratio. Addition of information on BMI, waist circumference, or waist-to-hip ratio to a cardiovascular disease risk prediction model containing conventional risk factors did not importantly improve risk discrimination (C-index changes of -0.0001, -0.0001, and 0.0008, respectively), nor classification of participants to categories of predicted 10-year risk (net reclassification improvement -0.19%, -0.05%, and -0.05%, respectively). Findings were similar when adiposity measures were considered in combination. Reproducibility was greater for BMI (regression dilution ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97) than for waist circumference (0.86, 0.83-0.89) or waist-to-hip ratio (0.63, 0.57-0.70)., Interpretation: BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio, whether assessed singly or in combination, do not importantly improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction in people in developed countries when additional information is available for systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and lipids., Funding: British Heart Foundation and UK Medical Research Council., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia encountered in clinical practice. The prevalence and incidence of AF are rising, as confirmed in several European and American registries. Guidelines published in 2008 from the European Society of Cardiology/American Heart Association and from the American College of Chest Physicians, clarified the strategy of antithrombotic treatment in AF, which is based on the presence of risk factors for thromboembolism. This approach allows physicians to classify patients as at low, moderate or high risk, according to their individual risk characteristics, which are relatively similar in both sets of recommendations. Patients at moderate risk, however, who might justify anticoagulant or antiplatelet treatment, could be better characterized using morphological (echocardiographic) and/or biological factors or risk markers. Recent data have shown that the existence of a thrombogenic milieu in the left atrium (e.g., dilatation of the left atrial appendage and/or thrombus and/or spontaneous echocontrast and/or reduced emptying/filling flow velocity) indicates a higher risk of embolism and mortality. Furthermore, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and haemostasis markers of coagulation are associated with thromboembolic risk and excess mortality in AF. Although current recommendations for the management of AF are not based on such markers, both could help physicians choose the optimal antithrombotic treatment (either vitamin K antagonists or antiplatelet drugs) according to the patient's specific risk profile. Nowadays, registries confirm under-prescription of vitamin K antagonist treatment in the 'real world,' even in patients at high thromboembolic risk, and over-prescription for at least one-third of low-risk patients. It is crucially important to realize that the risk of bleeding in patients with risk factors (e.g., older age, hypertension) is close to the risk of thromboembolism, which can have devastating outcomes in patients in AF. Alternative and efficient strategies (new oral anticoagulants, non-surgical closure of the left atrial appendage using percutaneous devices) are currently under investigation. Therefore reducing the risk of thromboembolism should be physicians' primary aim, particularly with the advent of alternative treatments and the development of new antithrombotic drugs such as oral thrombin and factor Xa inhibitors, which are currently being evaluated in clinical trials., (Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge likelihood of causality., Methods: We assessed the -1131T>C (rs662799) promoter polymorphism of the apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) gene in relation to triglyceride concentration, several other risk factors, and risk of coronary heart disease. We compared disease risk for genetically-raised triglyceride concentration (20,842 patients with coronary heart disease, 35,206 controls) with that recorded for equivalent differences in circulating triglyceride concentration in prospective studies (302 430 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease; 12,785 incident cases of coronary heart disease during 2.79 million person-years at risk). We analysed -1131T>C in 1795 people without a history of cardiovascular disease who had information about lipoprotein concentration and diameter obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy., Findings: The minor allele frequency of -1131T>C was 8% (95% CI 7-9). -1131T>C was not significantly associated with several non-lipid risk factors or LDL cholesterol, and it was modestly associated with lower HDL cholesterol (mean difference per C allele 3.5% [95% CI 2.6-4.6]; 0.053 mmol/L [0.039-0.068]), lower apolipoprotein AI (1.3% [0.3-2.3]; 0.023 g/L [0.005-0.041]), and higher apolipoprotein B (3.2% [1.3-5.1]; 0.027 g/L [0.011-0.043]). By contrast, for every C allele inherited, mean triglyceride concentration was 16.0% (95% CI 12.9-18.7), or 0.25 mmol/L (0.20-0.29), higher (p=4.4x10(-24)). The odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.18 (95% CI 1.11-1.26; p=2.6x10(-7)) per C allele, which was concordant with the hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 1.08-1.12) per 16% higher triglyceride concentration recorded in prospective studies. -1131T>C was significantly associated with higher VLDL particle concentration (mean difference per C allele 12.2 nmol/L [95% CI 7.7-16.7]; p=9.3x10(-8)) and smaller HDL particle size (0.14 nm [0.08-0.20]; p=7.0x10(-5)), factors that could mediate the effects of triglyceride., Interpretation: These data are consistent with a causal association between triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary heart disease., Funding: British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Novartis., (Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)), an inflammatory enzyme expressed in atherosclerotic plaques, is a therapeutic target being assessed in trials of vascular disease prevention. We investigated associations of circulating Lp-PLA(2) mass and activity with risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and mortality under different circumstances., Methods: With use of individual records from 79 036 participants in 32 prospective studies (yielding 17 722 incident fatal or non-fatal outcomes during 474 976 person-years at risk), we did a meta-analysis of within-study regressions to calculate risk ratios (RRs) per 1 SD higher value of Lp-PLA(2) or other risk factor. The primary outcome was coronary heart disease., Findings: Lp-PLA(2) activity and mass were associated with each other (r=0.51, 95% CI 0.47-0.56) and proatherogenic lipids. We noted roughly log-linear associations of Lp-PLA(2) activity and mass with risk of coronary heart disease and vascular death. RRs, adjusted for conventional risk factors, were: 1.10 (95% CI 1.05-1.16) with Lp-PLA(2) activity and 1.11 (1.07-1.16) with Lp-PLA(2) mass for coronary heart disease; 1.08 (0.97-1.20) and 1.14 (1.02-1.27) for ischaemic stroke; 1.16 (1.09-1.24) and 1.13 (1.05-1.22) for vascular mortality; and 1.10 (1.04-1.17) and 1.10 (1.03-1.18) for non-vascular mortality, respectively. RRs with Lp-PLA(2) did not differ significantly in people with and without initial stable vascular disease, apart from for vascular death with Lp-PLA(2) mass. Adjusted RRs for coronary heart disease were 1.10 (1.02-1.18) with non-HDL cholesterol and 1.10 (1.00-1.21) with systolic blood pressure., Interpretation: Lp-PLA(2) activity and mass each show continuous associations with risk of coronary heart disease, similar in magnitude to that with non-HDL cholesterol or systolic blood pressure in this population. Associations of Lp-PLA(2) mass and activity are not exclusive to vascular outcomes, and the vascular associations depend at least partly on lipids., Funding: UK Medical Research Council, GlaxoSmithKline, and British Heart Foundation., (Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Limited evidence suggests NT-proBNP improves prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events but further data are needed, especially in people without pre-existing CHD and in women., Methods: We measured NT-proBNP in serum from 162 women with incident CHD events and 1226 controls (60-79 years) in a case-control study nested within the prospective British Women's Heart and Health Study. All cases and controls were free from CHD at baseline. We related NT-proBNP to CHD event risk, and determined to what extent NT-proBNP enhanced CHD risk prediction beyond established risk factors., Results: The odds ratio for CHD per 1 standard deviation increase in log(e)NT-proBNP was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.13-1.68) in analyses adjusted for established CHD risk factors, social class, CRP and insulin. However, addition of log(e)NT-proBNP did not improve the discrimination of a prediction model including age, social class, smoking, physical activity, lipids, fasting glucose, waist:hip ratio, hypertension, statin and aspirin use, nor a standard Framingham risk score model; area under the receiver operator curve for the former model increased from 0.676 to 0.687 on inclusion of NT-proBNP (p=0.3). Furthermore, adding NT-proBNP did not improve calibration of a prediction model containing established risk factors, nor did inclusion more appropriately re-classify participants in relation to their final outcome. Findings were similar (independent associations, but no prediction improvement) for fasting insulin and CRP., Conclusion: These results caution against use of NT-proBNP for CHD risk prediction in healthy women and suggest a need for larger studies in both genders to resolve outstanding uncertainties.

Background: Associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with risk of major diseases can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. We assessed the associations of CRP concentration with risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes under different circumstances., Methods: We meta-analysed individual records of 160 309 people without a history of vascular disease (ie, 1.31 million person-years at risk, 27 769 fatal or non-fatal disease outcomes) from 54 long-term prospective studies. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation in risk factor levels., Results: Log(e) CRP concentration was linearly associated with several conventional risk factors and inflammatory markers, and nearly log-linearly with the risk of ischaemic vascular disease and non-vascular mortality. Risk ratios (RRs) for coronary heart disease per 1-SD higher log(e) CRP concentration (three-fold higher) were 1.63 (95% CI 1.51-1.76) when initially adjusted for age and sex only, and 1.37 (1.27-1.48) when adjusted further for conventional risk factors; 1.44 (1.32-1.57) and 1.27 (1.15-1.40) for ischaemic stroke; 1.71 (1.53-1.91) and 1.55 (1.37-1.76) for vascular mortality; and 1.55 (1.41-1.69) and 1.54 (1.40-1.68) for non-vascular mortality. RRs were largely unchanged after exclusion of smokers or initial follow-up. After further adjustment for fibrinogen, the corresponding RRs were 1.23 (1.07-1.42) for coronary heart disease; 1.32 (1.18-1.49) for ischaemic stroke; 1.34 (1.18-1.52) for vascular mortality; and 1.34 (1.20-1.50) for non-vascular mortality., Interpretation: CRP concentration has continuous associations with the risk of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, vascular mortality, and death from several cancers and lung disease that are each of broadly similar size. The relevance of CRP to such a range of disorders is unclear. Associations with ischaemic vascular disease depend considerably on conventional risk factors and other markers of inflammation., Funding: British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, BUPA Foundation, and GlaxoSmithKline., (Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Plasma levels of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) are frequently elevated after an acute stroke and have been shown to be an independent predictor of mortality. However, the relationships between stroke and BNP concentrations have not yet been systematically investigated. Plasma BNP assay and echocardiography were performed in 48 patients with ischemic stroke or TIA with a mean delay of 12.7 h after onset. Median BNP concentration was 88.6 pg/mL (range 5-1270). Older age, chronic heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke severity, lower hemoglobin levels, lower left ventricular ejection fraction, and abnormalities of left atrium or appendage (LA/LAA) were univariately associated with increased BNP levels. At multivariable analysis, the presence of at least one LA/LAA abnormality (atrial dilatation, low flow velocity, spontaneous echocontrast or thrombus) had the strongest association with BNP, explaining 38.9% of the variance in the whole sample and 28.5% in patients without atrial fibrillation. In acute ischemic stroke patients, elevated plasma BNP levels have multiple determinants, among which left atrial disease appears to be the stronger, even in patients without atrial fibrillation. These results encourage further investigation of plasma BNP concentration as a potential marker of the presence of left atrial sources of emboli.

Although spontaneous cervical artery dissection (CAD) is an uncommon cause of stroke in the general population, it accounts for 10-25% of cerebrovascular events in young to middle-aged patients. Two or more vessels are involved in fewer than 15% of dissections, but multiple spontaneous CADs are likely to be underestimated owing to frequent spontaneous recanalization and the possible oligo-symptomatic presentation. An extensive review of the literature shows that in the last 30 years only 28 cases of multiple CADs have been reported, and that in half of these patients symptoms were minor and transient. We describe two cases of multiple spontaneous CADs presenting as transient ischemic attack (TIA), in which only a specific diagnostic flow-chart allowed us to recognize multiple vessel involvement and start the appropriate therapy.