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The recent global COVID-19 pandemic resulted in governments enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. But the NPIs also affected the transmission of viruses causing non-target seasonal respiratory diseases, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In many countries, the NPIs were found to reduce cases of such seasonal respiratory diseases, but there is also evidence that subsequent relaxation of NPIs led to outbreaks of these diseases that were larger than pre-pandemic ones, due to the accumulation of susceptible individuals prior to relaxation. Therefore, the net long-term effects of NPIs on the total disease burden of non-target diseases remain unclear. Knowledge of this is important for infectious disease management and maintenance of public health. In this study, we shed light on this issue for the simplified scenario of a set of NPIs that prevent or reduce transmission of a seasonal respiratory disease for about a year and are then removed, using mathematical analyses and numerical simulations of a suite of four epidemiological models with varying complexity and generality. The model parameters were estimated using empirical data pertaining to seasonal respiratory diseases and covered a wide range. Our results showed that NPIs reduced the total disease burden of a non-target seasonal respiratory disease in the long-term. Expressed as a percentage of population size, the reduction was greater for larger values of the basic reproduction number and the immunity loss rate, reflecting larger outbreaks and hence more infections averted by imposition of NPIs. Our study provides a foundation for exploring the effects of NPIs on total disease burden in more-complex scenarios., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) in ecology predicts that the strength and frequency of positive interspecific interactions, including processing chain commensalisms (PCCs), increase with environmental stress. Although observed in some empirical PCC studies, a recent theoretical study of PCCs using a consumer-resource-type model found that, given the model's assumptions, the SGH never occurs. To investigate if this is a true reflection of PCCs or merely an artefact of the model, in this study, we modified this earlier model formulation by incorporating generalized, monotonically increasing resource uptake functions in place of linear functions, and added a term to represent the spontaneous leakage of the downstream resource to the environment. Mathematical analyses of the model revealed two key insights: 1) the specific algebraic forms of the functional responses of the species in a PCC do not affect the long-term behaviour of the system; 2) the SGH can occur in a facilitative interaction only if the consumer-independent leakage rate of the downstream resource exceeds the consumer-independent input rate. The first insight shows that the outcomes of consumer-resource interactions are robust to details of the functional responses when the functional responses are monotonically increasing, while the second insight shows that the SGH is not a universal feature of positive interactions but instead holds only under a well-defined set of conditions which may vary between PCC interactions and the environmental contexts in which they take place., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

In community ecology, neutral models make the assumption that species are equivalent, such that species abundances differ only because of demographic stochasticity. Despite their ecological simplicity, neutral models have been found to give reasonable descriptions of expected patterns of biodiversity in communities with many species. Such patterns include the expected total number of species and species-abundance distributions describing the expected number of species in different abundance classes. However, the expected patterns represent only the central tendencies of the full distributions of possible outcomes. Thus, ecological inferences and conclusions based only on expected patterns are incomplete, and may be misleading. Here, we address this issue for the spatially implicit neutral model, by using classic results from birth-death processes to derive (1) the probability distribution of extinction time of a species with given abundance for the metacommunity; (2) the probability distributions of total species richness and number of species with given abundance for both the metacommunity and local community; and (3) the probability distributions of the average immigration and extinction rates in the local community, across different values of total species richness. We illustrate the utility of these probability distributions in providing greater ecological insight via statistical inference. Firstly, we show that under the neutral metacommunity model, there is only 2.65×10 -9 probability that the age of a common tree species in the Amazon is  ≤ 3  × 10 8 yr, which is approximately the oldest estimated age of the first angiosperm. Thus, species ages from the model are unrealistically high. Secondly, for a tree community in a 50 ha plot at Barro Colorado Island in Panama, we show that the spatially implicit model can be fitted to observed species richness and an independent estimate of the immigration parameter, with the fitted model predicting a species-abundance distribution close to the observed distribution. Our results complement those using sampling formulae that specify the multivariate probability distribution of species abundances from neutral models., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The evenness of an ecological community affects ecosystem structure, functioning and stability, and has implications for biodiversity conservation. In uneven communities, most species are rare while a few dominant species drive ecosystem-level properties. In even communities, dominance is lower, with possibly many species playing key ecological roles. The dominance aspect of evenness can be measured as a decreasing function of the proportion of species required to make up a fixed fraction (e.g., half) of individuals in a community. Here we sought general rules about dominance in ecological communities by linking dominance mathematically to the parameters of common theoretical species-abundance distributions (SADs). We found that if a community's SAD was log-series or lognormal, then dominance was almost inevitably high, with fewer than 40% of species required to account for 90% of all individuals. Dominance for communities with an exponential SAD was lower but still typically high, with fewer than 40% of species required to account for 70% of all individuals. In contrast, communities with a gamma SAD only exhibited high dominance when the average species abundance was below a threshold of approximately 100. Furthermore, we showed that exact values of dominance were highly scale-dependent, exhibiting non-linear trends with changing average species abundance. We also applied our formulae to SADs derived from a mechanistic community model to demonstrate how dominance can increase with environmental variance. Overall, our study provides a rigorous basis for theoretical explorations of the dynamics of dominance in ecological communities, and how this affects ecosystem functioning and stability., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Transitions in ecological systems often occur without apparent warning, and may represent shifts between alternative persistent states. Decreasing ecological resilience (the size of the basin of attraction around a stable state) can signal an impending transition, but this effect is difficult to measure in practice. Recent research has suggested that a decreasing rate of recovery from small perturbations (critical slowing down) is a good indicator of ecological resilience. Here we use analytical techniques to draw general conclusions about the conditions under which critical slowing down provides an early indicator of transitions in two-species predator-prey and competition models. The models exhibit three types of transition: the predator-prey model has a Hopf bifurcation and a transcritical bifurcation, and the competition model has two saddle-node bifurcations (in which case the system exhibits hysteresis) or two transcritical bifurcations, depending on the parameterisation. We find that critical slowing down is an earlier indicator of the Hopf bifurcation in predator-prey models in which prey are regulated by predation rather than by intrinsic density-dependent effects and an earlier indicator of transitions in competition models in which the dynamics of the rare species operate on slower timescales than the dynamics of the common species. These results lead directly to predictions for more complex multi-species systems, which can be tested using simulation models or real ecosystems.

Preston's classic work on the theory of species abundance distributions (SADs) in ecology has been challenged by Dewdney. Dewdney contends that Preston's veil-line concept, relating to the shape of sample SADs, is flawed. Here, I show that Preston's and Dewdney's theories can be reconciled by considering the differing mathematical properties of the sampling process on logarithmic (Preston) versus linear (Dewdney) abundance scales. I also derive several related results and show, importantly, that one cannot reject the log-normal distribution as a plausible SAD based only on sampling arguments, as Dewdney and others have done.