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Sea-level rise associated with climate change presents a major challenge to plant diversity and ecosystem service provision in coastal wetlands. In this study, we investigate the effect of sea-level rise on benthos, vegetation, and ecosystem diversity in a tidal wetland in west Wales, the UK. Present relationships between plant communities and environmental variables were investigated through 50 plots at which vegetation (species and coverage), hydrological (surface or groundwater depth, conductivity) and soil (matrix chroma, presence or absence of mottles, organic content, particle size) data were collected. Benthic communities were sampled at intervals along a continuum from saline to freshwater. To ascertain future changes to the wetlands' hydrology, a GIS-based empirical model was developed. Using a LiDAR derived land surface, the relative effect of peat accumulation and rising sea levels were modelled over 200 years to determine how frequently portions of the wetland will be inundated by mean sea level, mean high water spring and mean high water neap conditions. The model takes into account changing extents of peat accumulation as hydrological conditions alter. Model results show that changes to the wetland hydrology will initially be slow. However, changes in frequency and extent of inundation reach a tipping point 125 to 175 years from 2010 due to the extremely low slope of the wetland. From then onwards, large portions of the wetland become flooded at every flood tide and saltwater intrusion becomes more common. This will result in a reduction in marsh biodiversity with plant communities switching toward less diverse and occasionally monospecific communities that are more salt tolerant. While the loss of tidal freshwater wetland is in line with global predictions, simulations suggest that in the Teifi marshes the loss will be slow at first, but then rapid. While there will be a decrease in biodiversity, the model indicated that at least for one ecosystem service, carbon storage, there is potential for an increase in the near future., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Eroding farm tracks represent important spatially distributed features in many agricultural landscapes and there is concern over their role in catchment sediment problems. It is, however, important to place eroding farm tracks in the context of catchment sediment sources more generally, especially since the former afford potential for targeted sediment mitigation. A sediment source tracing procedure was therefore used to assess the importance of eroding farm track surfaces as a contemporary primary suspended sediment source relative to inputs from pasture or cultivated topsoils and channel banks/subsurface sources, in the upper River Piddle catchment (~100km(2)), in southern England. The study provided a timely opportunity to assess the performance of both local and global (genetic algorithm; GA) optimisation techniques in the sediment geochemistry mass balance modelling used to apportion sources. Over the duration of the study, average median source contributions for individual time-integrated suspended sediment samples collected from three sub-catchments ranged between 1±1 and 19±3% for farm track surfaces, 31±3 and 55±2% for pasture topsoils, 1±1 and 19±1% for cultivated topsoils and 23±2 and 49±1% for channel banks/subsurface sources. Comparison of the local and GA optimisation techniques demonstrated that GA with random initial values improved the minimisation of the objective functions compared to local searching by 0.01-0.04% of 5000 repeat Monte Carlo iterations. GA informed by the outputs of the local optimisation as initial values improved corresponding performance by 0.05-0.20%. These findings increased confidence in the outputs from the local optimisation mass balance modelling, but fingerprint property datasets should be treated on an individual basis. Future sediment source tracing studies should always endeavour to combine local and global search tools to avoid the risk of using localised solutions for source apportionment estimates., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)