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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a serious health problem in Papua New Guinea (PNG) with an estimated 30000 new cases and 3800 deaths each year. In the Balimo region of the Western Province, diagnosis relies on clinical manifestations and on the microscopic detection of acid-fast bacilli (AFB) in sputum smears, a technique with limited sensitivity., Methods: A molecular diagnosis assay targeting DNA extracted from archived sputum smear slides collected from the Balimo region (2012-2014) was conducted, without the need for a viable culture. The presence of Mycobacterium sp on 1162 slides prepared from 345 sputum samples was assessed using a real-time PCR (qPCR) approach., Results: The qPCR technique identified the presence of mycobacteria in 35.4% of the smear slides and 59.7% of the tested sputum samples. Poor agreement was observed between the two diagnosis methods (smear AFB microscopy versus qPCR), with 100 AFB-positive sputum samples compared to 206 qPCR-positive sputum samples overall. Treatment was initiated in 90.2% of the smear-positive cases. Unnecessary treatment of 'false-positive' TB cases (AFB-negative/qPCR-negative) was very low (8.6%) and was even lower when the nine patients diagnosed with extrapulmonary TB were excluded from the analysis. However, the prevalence of false-negatives (AFB-negative/qPCR-positive) was high (28.5%)., Conclusions: Undetected smear-negative TB is occurring in the Balimo region of PNG, as well as some unnecessary empirical treatment. Molecular methods of diagnosis could greatly reduce the frequency of inappropriate clinical assessment, as well as providing point-of-care diagnosis. This may provide substantial patient and programmatic benefits, including lowering the economic burden on patients from rural areas seeking medical diagnosis in Balimo., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a threat to tuberculosis (TB) control. To guide TB control, it is essential to understand the extent to which and the circumstances in which MDR-TB will replace drug-susceptible TB (DS-TB) as the dominant phenotype. The issue was examined by assessing evidence from genomics, pharmacokinetics, and epidemiology studies. This evidence was then synthesized into a mathematical model., Methods: This model considers two TB strains, one with and one without an MDR phenotype. It was considered that intrinsic transmissibility may be different between the two strains, as may the control response including the detection, treatment failure, and default rates. The outcomes were explored in terms of the incidence of MDR-TB and time until MDR-TB surpasses DS-TB as the dominant strain., Results and Conclusions: The ability of MDR-TB to dominate DS-TB was highly sensitive to the relative transmissibility of the resistant strain; however, MDR-TB could dominate even when its transmissibility was modestly reduced (to between 50% and 100% as transmissible as the DS-TB strain). This model suggests that it may take decades or more for strain replacement to occur. It was also found that while the amplification of resistance is the early cause of MDR-TB, this will rapidly give way to person-to-person transmission., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

In order to estimate the level of under-reporting and to improve estimates of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in the vicinity of Cayenne, French Guiana, we performed capture-recapture analysis from 1996 through 2003. We cross-linked data from the Institut Pasteur, the Département d'Information Médicale of Cayenne Hospital, and the Service de Lutte Anti-Tuberculeuse. The estimate of 381 TB cases obtained after matching those three sources was revised to 425 (95% confidence interval: 407, 453) using the capture-recapture model based on sample coverage. The corresponding average annual incidence was 63.1 TB cases per 100,000 population. The evaluated sensitivity of the compulsory notification system was 35.3%, indicating wide under-notification of TB in the vicinity of Cayenne. The estimated coverage reported by the three sources was fairly accurate (i.e. 85.9%), but not sufficient to evaluate the risk of transmission of TB in the Ile-de-Cayenne (Cayenne and its suburbs).