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Objective markers which can reliably predict psychosis transition among individuals with at-risk mental state (ARMS) are warranted. In this study, sixty-five ARMS subjects [of whom 17 (26.2%) later developed psychosis] were recruited, and we performed supervised linear support vector machine (SVM) with a variety of combinations of.modalities (clinical features, cognition, structural magnetic resonance imaging, eventrelated.potentials, and polyunsaturated fatty acids) to predict future psychosis onset. While single-modality SVMs showed a poor to fair accuracy, multi-modal SVMs revealed better predictions, up to 0.88 of the balanced accuracy, suggesting the advantage of multi-modal machine-learning methods for forecasting psychosis onset in ARMS.

Background: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies reported pineal gland atrophy in schizophrenia patients and individuals at a clinical high risk of developing psychosis, implicating abnormalities in melatonin secretion in the pathophysiology of psychosis. However, it currently remains unclear whether the morphology of the pineal gland contributes to symptomatology and sociocognitive functions. Methods: This MRI study examined pineal gland volumes and the prevalence of pineal cysts as well as their relationship with clinical characteristics in 57 at risk mental state (ARMS) subjects, 63 patients with schizophrenia, and 61 healthy controls. The Social and Occupational Functioning Assessment Scale (SOFAS), the Schizophrenia Cognition Rating Scale (SCoRS), and the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS) were used to assess sociocognitive functions, while the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale was employed to evaluate clinical symptoms in ARMS subjects and schizophrenia patients. Results: Pineal gland volumes were significantly smaller in the ARMS and schizophrenia groups than in the controls, while no significant differences were observed in the prevalence of pineal cysts. Although BACS, SCoRS, and SOFAS scores were not associated with pineal morphology, patients with pineal cysts in the schizophrenia group exhibited severe positive psychotic symptoms with rather mild negative symptoms. Conclusion: The present results indicate the potential of pineal atrophy as a vulnerability marker in various stages of psychosis and suggest that pineal cysts influence the clinical subtype of schizophrenia.