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Introduction In pivotal trials of patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease at risk of rapid progression, tolvaptan slowed estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline in early-to-moderate (TEMPO 3:4 [NCT00428948]) and moderate- to late-stage (REPRISE [NCT02160145]) chronic kidney disease (CKD). Discontinuation was less frequent in REPRISE (15.0%) than TEMPO 3:4 (23.0%), given that in REPRISE, only subjects who tolerated tolvaptan 60/30 mg daily initiated the double-blind phase. We evaluated whether the greater treatment effect in REPRISE was attributable to different completion rates. Methods We conducted post hoc analyses of TEMPO 3:4 and REPRISE completers, defined as subjects who took trial drug to the end of the treatment period in TEMPO 3:4 (3 years) or REPRISE (1 year). Efficacy (rate of change in eGFR for tolvaptan vs. placebo) was analyzed as in each trial. Subjects from TEMPO 3:4 and REPRISE were also matched by propensity score for age, gender, and baseline eGFR to explore potential additional determinants of treatment effect. Results The annualized tolvaptan treatment effect in TEMPO 3:4 completers (difference vs. placebo of 0.98 ml/min per 1.73 m2/y) and REPRISE completers (difference of 1.23) was similar to that of the respective total trial populations (TEMPO 3:4: 0.94; REPRISE: 1.27). The treatment effect of tolvaptan was also similar between matched subjects. Conclusion Greater treatment completion rate did not drive greater treatment effect in REPRISE. The more advanced CKD of REPRISE subjects may be more relevant. More rapid decline in kidney function in later-stage CKD enabled the effects of tolvaptan to be more easily discerned., Graphical abstract

Introduction In the Mayo Imaging Classification (MIC) for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), the height-adjusted total kidney volume (HtTKV) growth rate is estimated for classification. Estimated HtTKV slope, termed as eHTKV-α, is calculated by the equation [HtTKV at age t] = K(1+α/100)(t-A), where K = 150 and A = 0 are used in MIC. If eHTKV-α is nearly stable during a standard-of-care period, the change in eHTKV-α from baseline can be used for estimation of the treatment effect on the HtTKV slope. Methods The constancy of eHTKV-α (A = 0 and K = 150) was evaluated using 453 placebo-assigned subjects in the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and Its Outcomes (TEMPO) 3:4 trial. A and K were sought out respectively by a converged pattern of regression lines of log10(HtTKV) plotted against age for subgroups divided according to MIC, and by change in eHTKV-α from baseline. A total of 239 standard-of-care patients from the Kyorin University Cohort (KUC) served as validation. Changes in eHTKV-α from baseline were evaluated in 809 tolvaptan-treated subjects in TEMPO 3:4. Results In placebo-assigned subjects, eHTKV-α (A = 0 and K = 150) changed significantly from baseline at the third year. As regression lines of placebo-assigned subgroups converged around age 0, A was set as 0, which was confirmed by KUC. K = 130 was selected because of minimal change in eHTKV-α from baseline. The KUC validated the constancy of eHTKV-α (A = 0 and K = 130) but not that of eHTKV-α (A=0 and K=150). In tolvaptan-treated subjects, eHTKV-α remained significantly lower than baseline for 3 years. Conclusions eHTKV-α (A = 0 and K = 130) was nearly stable from baseline through follow-up in standard-of-care adults. Treatment effects on the HtTKV slope can be estimated by changes in eHTKV-α from baseline.