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BACKGROUND: Mastocytosis in adults often presents with skin lesions. A bone marrow biopsy is necessary to confirm or exclude the presence of systemic mastocytosis (SM) in these cases. When a bone marrow biopsy is not performed, the provisional diagnosis is mastocytosis in the skin (MIS). No generally accepted scoring system has been established to estimate the risk of SM in these patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk score to predict SM in adults with MIS. METHODS: We examined 1145 patients with MIS from the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis Registry who underwent a bone marrow biopsy. A total of 944 patients had SM and 201 patients had cutaneous mastocytosis; 63.7% were female, and 36.3% were male. Median age was 44 +/- 13.3 years. The median serum tryptase level amounted to 29.3 +/- 81.9 ng/mL. We established a multivariate regression model using the whole population of patients as a training and validation set (bootstrapping). A risk score was developed and validated with receiver-operating curves. RESULTS: In the multivariate model, the tryptase level (P < .001), constitutional/cardiovascular symptoms (P = .014), and bone symptoms/osteoporosis (P < .001) were independent predictors of SM (P < .001; sensitivity, 90.7%; specificity, 69.1%). A 6-point risk score was established (risk, 10.7%-98.0%) and validated. CONCLUSIONS: Using a large data set of the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis Registry, we created a risk score to predict the presence of SM in patients with MIS. Although the score will need further validation in independent cohorts, our score seems to discriminate safely between patients with SM and with pure cutaneous mastocytosis. (C) 2020 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

BACKGROUND: Mastocytosis in adults often presents with skin lesions. A bone marrow biopsy is necessary to confirm or exclude the presence of systemic mastocytosis (SM) in these cases. When a bone marrow biopsy is not performed, the provisional diagnosis is mastocytosis in the skin (MIS). No generally accepted scoring system has been established to estimate the risk of SM in these patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk score to predict SM in adults with MIS. METHODS: We examined 1145 patients with MIS from the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis Registry who underwent a bone marrow biopsy. A total of 944 patients had SM and 201 patients had cutaneous mastocytosis; 63.7% were female, and 36.3% were male. Median age was 44 +/- 13.3 years. The median serum tryptase level amounted to 29.3 +/- 81.9 ng/mL. We established a multivariate regression model using the whole population of patients as a training and validation set (bootstrapping). A risk score was developed and validated with receiver-operating curves. RESULTS: In the multivariate model, the tryptase level (P < .001), constitutional/cardiovascular symptoms (P = .014), and bone symptoms/osteoporosis (P < .001) were independent predictors of SM (P < .001; sensitivity, 90.7%; specificity, 69.1%). A 6-point risk score was established (risk, 10.7%-98.0%) and validated. CONCLUSIONS: Using a large data set of the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis Registry, we created a risk score to predict the presence of SM in patients with MIS. Although the score will need further validation in independent cohorts, our score seems to discriminate safely between patients with SM and with pure cutaneous mastocytosis. (C) 2020 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

BACKGROUND: Mastocytosis in adults often presents with skin lesions. A bone marrow biopsy is necessary to confirm or exclude the presence of systemic mastocytosis (SM) in these cases. When a bone marrow biopsy is not performed, the provisional diagnosis is mastocytosis in the skin (MIS). No generally accepted scoring system has been established to estimate the risk of SM in these patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk score to predict SM in adults with MIS. METHODS: We examined 1145 patients with MIS from the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis Registry who underwent a bone marrow biopsy. A total of 944 patients had SM and 201 patients had cutaneous mastocytosis; 63.7% were female, and 36.3% were male. Median age was 44 +/- 13.3 years. The median serum tryptase level amounted to 29.3 +/- 81.9 ng/mL. We established a multivariate regression model using the whole population of patients as a training and validation set (bootstrapping). A risk score was developed and validated with receiver-operating curves. RESULTS: In the multivariate model, the tryptase level (P < .001), constitutional/cardiovascular symptoms (P = .014), and bone symptoms/osteoporosis (P < .001) were independent predictors of SM (P < .001; sensitivity, 90.7%; specificity, 69.1%). A 6-point risk score was established (risk, 10.7%-98.0%) and validated. CONCLUSIONS: Using a large data set of the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis Registry, we created a risk score to predict the presence of SM in patients with MIS. Although the score will need further validation in independent cohorts, our score seems to discriminate safely between patients with SM and with pure cutaneous mastocytosis. (C) 2020 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology

[Background]: The WHO classification separates mastocytosis into distinct variants, but prognostication remains a clinical challenge. The aim of this study was to improve prognostication for patients with mastocytosis., [Methods]: We analysed data of the registry of the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis including 1639 patients (age 17–90 years) diagnosed with mastocytosis according to WHO criteria between Jan 12, 1978, and March 16, 2017. Univariate and multivariate analyses with Cox regression were applied to identify prognostic variables predicting survival outcomes and to establish a prognostic score. We validated this International Prognostic Scoring System in Mastocytosis (IPSM) with data of 462 patients (age 17–79 years) from the Spanish network Red Española de Mastocitosis diagnosed between Jan 22, 1998, and Nov 2, 2017., [Findings]: The prognostic value of the WHO classification was confirmed in our study (p<0·0001). For patients with non-advanced mastocytosis (n=1380), we identified age 60 years or older (HR 10·75, 95% CI 5·68–20·32) and a concentration of alkaline phosphatase 100 U/L or higher (2·91, 1·60–5·30) as additional independent prognostic variables for overall survival. The resulting scoring system divided patients with non-advanced mastocytosis into three groups: low (no risk factors), intermediate 1 (one risk factor), and intermediate 2 (two risk factors). Overall survival and progression-free survival differed significantly among these groups (p<0·0001). In patients with advanced mastocytosis (n=259), age 60 years or older (HR 2·14, 95% CI 1·42–3·22), a concentration of tryptase 125 ng/mL or higher (1·81, 1·20–2·75), a leukocyte count of 16 × 109 per L or higher (1·88, 1·27–2·79), haemoglobin of 11 g/dL or lower (1·71, 1·13–2·57), a platelet count of 100 × 109 per L or lower (1·63, 1·13–2·34), and skin involvement (0·46, 0·30–0·69) were prognostic variables. Based on these variables, a separate score for advanced mastocytosis with four risk categories was established, with significantly different outcomes for overall survival and progression-free survival (p<0·0001). The prognostic value of both scores was confirmed in 413 patients with non-advanced disease and 49 with advanced mastocytosis from the validation cohort., [Interpretation]: The IPSM scores for patients with non-advanced and advanced mastocytosis can be used to predict survival outcomes and guide treatment decisions. However, the predictive value of the IPSM needs to be confirmed in forthcoming trials.