Search

In 2017-2019 southeast Australia experienced one of its most severe droughts since 1900. Rainfall over the region encompassing the Murray-Darling Basin was consistently below average for three consecutive cool seasons, an unprecedented event on record. A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event has been previously suggested to have intensified the conditions of the drought in 2019, however the state of the climate drivers cannot fully explain the onset and development of this drought. In this study, we adopt a different approach to investigate processes other than remote climate drivers that may have triggered the drought. Using a Lagrangian model to identify moisture sources to the Murray Darling Basin, we show that local processes were crucial in explaining the onset and development of the drought. We identify the oceanic and terrestrial sources of atmospheric moisture over the Murray Darling Basin and show for the first time a significant decline in rainfall moisture supply from the Tasman Sea in 2017 and 2018. We further show that anomalous atmospheric circulation transported the expected moisture northward toward the Maritime Continent. Our results provide an explanation for the moisture and rainfall deficit that caused the 2017-19 southeast Australian drought. Understanding the processes that led to the 2017-2019 drought is an important step towards improved predictions and planning for future multi-year droughts in Australia.

Short-term events are one of the specific aspects that differentiate odour nuisance problems from conventional air quality pollutants. Atmospheric dispersion modelling has been considered the gold standard to realise odour impact assessments and to calculate separation distances. Most of these models provide predictions of concentrations of a pollutant in ambient air on an hourly basis. Even when the hourly mean odour concentration is lower than the perception threshold, concentration peaks above the threshold may occur during this period. The constant peak-to-mean factor is nowadays the most widespread method for evaluating short-term concentrations from the long-term ones. Different approaches have been proposed in the scientific literature to consider non-constant peak-to-mean factors. Two prominent approaches to do so are the i) variable peak-to-mean factor which considers the distance from the source and atmospheric stability and the ii) concentration-variance transport. In this sense, the aim of this work is to compare the results of three different freely available dispersion models (namely, CALPUFF, LAPMOD and GRAL), which implement three distinct ways to evaluate the short-term concentration values. Two sites, one in Austria and the other in Italy, were selected for the investigation.Dispersion model results were compared and discussed both in terms of long-term (hourly) concentrations and short-term. An important outcome of this work is that the dispersion models provided more equivalent results for hourly mean concentrations, in particular in the far-field. On the contrary, the method to evaluate short-term concentrations can deliver disparate results, thereby revealing a potential risk of poor assessment conclusions.The utilistion of a multiangle methodological approach (dispersion models, study site locations, algorithms to incorporate short-term concentrations) allowed providing useful information for future studies and policymaking in this field. Accordingly, our findings call for awareness on how the use of a particular dispersion model and its sub-hourly peak calculation method can affect odour impact assessment conclusions and compliance demonstrations.

Dispersion models have proven to assist the development of regulation strategies for the mitigation of odour impact. Nevertheless, the complexity derived from the definition of the sources and the replication of the subjective perception of chemical mixtures raise the question whether it is enough to perform an assessment based exclusively on the predictions of models. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing debate on the most appropriate methodology to reproduce sub-hourly peak concentrations. With this in mind, the active participation of the affected community could help to identify better the processes that cause odour annoyance and tune the results obtained with the dispersion models. Recently, the AirQ application has been implemented in the Czech Republic to allow citizens to report odour episodes to the entity in charge. Hence, the goal of this work was to integrate the information collected from the complainants with the simulations from the Gaussian model SYMOS, and the Lagrangian models AUSTAL and GRAL. The evaluation was performed in three sites with different emission characteristics and terrain: a pig farm, a pet food producer, and an edible oil industry. The outcome of this approach allowed to evaluate the suitability of each model depending the characteristics of the source, compare the use of a constant peak-to-mean factor of 4 against the Concentration Variance Model, and determine the applicability of certain odour impact criteria (OIC) for establishing separation distances., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

This paper presents the development and testing of a gamma radiation dose rate calculation model for the marine environment, and evaluates the potential use for such a model in both short term nuclear emergency response management and emergency response planning. This is believed to be the first implementation of a full field gamma radiation mapping model (including air attenuation and buildup) to be incorporated within a Lagrangian marine dispersion model. Calculated surface gamma ray dose rates for nine generic release scenarios are presented and used to undertake an emergency countermeasure optioneering assessment., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

An accurate representation of the particle organic matter (POM) footprint is necessary in order to effectively predict impacts upon benthic communities and the risk of excessive organic enrichment beneath aquaculture sea-cages. Consequently, bottom-related processes such as particle resuspension must be adequately parametrized and evaluated in the available numerical models. We implemented two approaches to model POM resuspension in a Lagrangian particle tracking model and compared their influence on footprint extension and gradients of depositional flux against a no-resuspension scenario. We performed simulations in both exposed and protected aquaculture locations, and at different stages of the Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) production cycle in Norway. Our results indicate that the use of sediment-dependent thresholds for resuspension has the potential to regulate the high levels of erosion produced when selecting a low critical value in constant-threshold approaches, particularly in dynamic environments with mixed sediment types., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Flood debris associated with Typhoon Lionrock from the Tumen River at the border between Russia and North Korea was traced using ocean color and a Lagrangian particle-tracking model. As debris is transported along with discharged water during floods, a means of tracing floodwater should also allow any associated debris to be tracked. By analyzing the anomalous distribution of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and total suspended sediments (TSS) from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), the southward movement of the floodwater was tracked along the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula. This movement was driven by the North Korean Cold Current and was consistent with model results. The similarity between the satellite-derived and modeled datasets shows that CDOM and TSS can be used to track flood-derived debris for several hundreds of kilometers and locate hotspots of debris accumulation., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

In order to understand the main driving factors of ozone (O 3 ) deposition we tested the hypothesis that sky conditions (cloudy, partly cloudy, and clear sky) modulate O 3 flux in forest ecosystems via stomatal regulation. The hypothesis is based on the fact that complex microclimate conditions under cloudy sky usually stimulate stomatal conductance. O 3 fluxes were inferred from a concentration gradient in a mountainous Norway spruce forest in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) for years 2012-2016 and measured directly by eddy-covariance during the summer of 2017. Daily and seasonal O 3 depositions were calculated separately for days with cloudy, partly cloudy, and clear sky conditions. The data show unequivocally that more O 3 is taken up under cloudy and partially cloudy skies. Moreover, we found significant interactive effects of sky conditions and season on O 3 flux. Though there are other mechanisms and pathways involved in the transport of O 3 to the plant-soil system, the highest O 3 deposition was associated to the highest stomatal conductance during partly cloudy and cloudy sky conditions in all seasons, while lower O 3 ecosystem fluxes were observed under clear sky conditions despite the highest O 3 concentrations at this time. These findings suggest that forests growing at sites where conditions are predominantly cloudy are expected to deposit higher extent of O 3 than less-cloudy forests being thus more threatened by phytotoxic O 3 ., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

A numerical model, previously validated with other radionuclides, was applied to simulate the dispersion of 236 U released from European nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in the North Atlantic and Shelf Seas using a published reconstruction of Sellafield and La Hague releases. Model results are in better agreement with observations if the lowest estimation of such releases are used. This implies that approximately 40kg of 236 U has been discharged from Sellafield. It was found that adsorption of 236 U on bed sediments of the shallow European Shelf Seas plays an essential role in its dispersion patterns. This contrasts strongly with the more conservative behaviour of 129 I in the same area. This has two important implications in the use of 236 U as oceanographic tracer; i) special care must be taken in coastal areas, as sediments might act as sinks and sources of 236 U; ii) the annual input function of 236 U into the Arctic is not directly controlled by the annual discharges from Sellafield and La Hague, since sediments from the Irish, Celtic and North Sea modulate and smooth the signal. Only 52% of the total releases enter into the Arctic Ocean., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

A Lagrangian model which simulates the dispersion of 137 Cs in the North Atlantic has been developed. The model includes water/sediment interactions. It has been tested comparing calculated and measured 137 Cs concentrations in water and sediments of the European Shelf resulting after the releases from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plants of Sellafield and La Hague. Some additional numerical experiments have been carried out. First, the redissolution of 137 Cs from contaminated sediments after the reduction in releases from the reprocessing plants has been studied. This allowed to calculate effective half-lives of 137 Cs in several sub-basins. Later, potential leakage of 137 Cs from dumped nuclear wastes in several locations of the Atlantic has been investigated. Even in worst-case scenarios, these leakages should not lead to any radiological implications., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Within the framework of research aimed at using genetic methods to evaluate harmful species distribution and their impact on coastal ecosystems, a portion of the ITS1rDNA of Alexandrium minutum was amplified by real-time PCR from DNA extracts of superficial (1-3cm) sediments of 30 subtidal and intertidal stations of the Bay of Brest (Brittany, France), during the winters of 2013 and 2015. Cell germinations and rDNA amplifications of A. minutum were obtained for sediments of all sampled stations, demonstrating that the whole bay is currently contaminated by this toxic species. Coherent estimations of ITS1rDNA copy numbers were obtained for the two sampling cruises, supporting the hypothesis of regular accumulation of A. minutum resting stages in the south-eastern, more confined embayments of the study area, where fine-muddy sediments are also more abundant. Higher ITS1rDNA copy numbers were detected in sediments of areas where blooms have been seasonally detected since 2012. This result suggests that specific genetic material estimations in superficial sediments of the bay may be a proxy of the cyst banks of A. minutum. The simulation of particle trajectory analyses by a Lagrangian physical model showed that blooms occurring in the south-eastern part of the bay are disconnected from those of the north-eastern zone. The heterogeneous distribution of A. minutum inferred from both water and sediment suggests the existence of potential barriers for the dispersal of this species in the Bay of Brest and encourages finer analyses at the population level for this species within semi-enclosed coastal ecosystems., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Sea surface concentrations of plastics and their fluxes onto coastlines are simulated over 2009-2015. Calculations incorporate combinations of terrestrial and maritime litter inputs, the Lagrangian model MEDSLIK-II forced by AFS ocean current simulations, and ECMWF wind analyses. With a relatively short particle half-life of 43.7 days, the Adriatic Sea is defined as a highly dissipative basin where the shoreline is, by construction, the main sink of floating debris. Our model results show that the coastline of the Po Delta receives a plastic flux of approximately 70 kg(km day)(-1). The most polluted sea surface area (>10 g km(-2) floating debris) is represented by an elongated band shifted to the Italian coastline and narrowed from northwest to southeast. Evident seasonality is found in the calculated plastic concentration fields and the coastline fluxes. Complex source-receptor relationships among the basin's subregions are quantified in impact matrices., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

A quantitative evaluation of the fate of (129)I, released from the European reprocessing plants of Sellafield (UK) and La Hague (France), has been made by means of a Lagrangian dispersion model. Transport of radionuclides to the Arctic Ocean has been determined. Thus, 5.1 and 16.6 TBq of (129)I have been introduced in the Arctic from Sellafield and La Hague respectively from 1966 to 2012. These figures represent, respectively, 48% and 55% of the cumulative discharge to that time. Inventories in the North Atlantic, including shelf seas, are 4.4 and 13.8 TBq coming from Sellafield and La Hague respectively. These figures are significantly different from previous estimations based on field data. The distribution of these inventories among several shelf seas and regions has been evaluated as well. Mean ages of tracers have been finally obtained, making use of the age-averaging hypothesis. It has been found that mean ages for Sellafield releases are about 3.5 year larger than for La Hague releases., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) accident occurred on April 26 of 1986, it is still an episode of interest, due to the large amount of radionuclides dispersed in the atmosphere. Caesium-137 ((137)Cs) is one of the main radionuclides emitted during the Chernobyl accident, with a half-life of 30years, which can be accumulated in humans and animals, and for this reason the impacts on population are still monitored today. One of the main parameters in order to estimate the exposure of population to (137)Cs is the concentration in the air, during the days after the accident, and the deposition at surface. The transport and deposition of (137)Cs over Europe occurred after the CNPP accident has been simulated using the WRF-HYSPLIT modeling system. Four different vertical and temporal emission rate profiles have been simulated, as well as two different dry deposition velocities. The model simulations could reproduce fairly well the observations of (137)Cs concentrations and deposition, which were used to generate the 'Atlas of Caesium deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl accident' and published in 1998. An additional focus was given on (137)Cs deposition and air concentrations over Turkey, which was one of the main affected countries, but not included in the results of the Atlas. We estimated a total deposition of 2-3.5 PBq over Turkey, with 2 main regions affected, East Turkey and Central Black Sea coast until Central Anatolia, with values between 10 kBq m(-2) and 100 kBq m(-2). Mean radiological effective doses from simulated air concentrations and deposition has been estimated for Turkey reaching 0.15 mSv/year in the North Eastern part of Turkey, even if the contribution from ingestion of contaminated food and water is not considered, the estimated levels are largely below the 1 mSv limit indicated by the International Commission on Radiological Protection., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)