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1. The burden of metabolic risk factors in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990–2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease StudyResearch in context

Author

Mohammad-Reza Malekpour, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari, Javad Khanali, Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy, Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem, Negar Rezaei, Parnian Shobeiri, Zahra Esfahani, Nazila Rezaei, Ali H. Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Bagher Larijani, Farshad Farzadfar, Amirali Aali, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Meriem Abdoun, Abdorrahim Absalan, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Niveen ME. Abu-Rmeileh, Ahmed Abu-Zaid, Ali Ahmadi, Sepideh Ahmadi, Ayman Ahmed, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Marjan Ajami, Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi, Hanadi Al Hamad, Tariq A. Alalwan, Khalid F. Alhabib, Yousef Alimohamadi, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Mahmoud A. Alomari, Saleh A. Alqahatni, Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi, Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi, Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami, Sohrab Amiri, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Judie Arulappan, Ashokan Arumugam, Zahra Aryan, Mohammad Athar, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Abolfazl Avan, Sina Azadnajafabad, Samad Azari, Hosein Azizi, Nayereh Baghcheghi, Nader Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja, Souad Bouaoud, Muhammad Hammad Butt, Luciana Aparecida Campos, Abdulaal Chitheer, Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Shirin Djalalinia, Milad Dodangeh, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Iffat Elbarazi, Muhammed Elhadi, Waseem El-Huneidi, Rana Ezzeddini, Mohammad Fareed, Hossein Farrokhpour, Ali Fatehizadeh, Yaseen Galali, Amir Ghaderi, Mansour Ghafourifard, Mohammad Ghasemi Nour, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Maryam Gholamalizadeh, Pouya Goleij, Mohamad Golitaleb, Parham Habibzadeh, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Rabih Halwani, Hamidreza Hasani, Maryam Hashemian, Amr Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Kamal Hezam, Reza Homayounfar, Seyed Kianoosh Hosseini, Kaveh Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh, Jalil Jaafari, Haitham Jahrami, Elham Jamshidi, Tahereh Javaheri, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Ali Kabir, Amirali Karimi, Neda Kaydi, Mohammad Keykhaei, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Moien A.B. Khan, Kashif Ullah Khan, Yusra H. Khan, Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh, Farzad Kompani, Hamid Reza Koohestani, Mohammed Kuddus, Savita Lasrado, Sang-woong Lee, Soleiman Mahjoub, Ata Mahmoodpoor, Elham Mahmoudi, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Narges Malih, Ahmad Azam Malik, Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi, Yosef Manla, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Parham Mardi, Abdoljalal Marjani, Sahar Masoudi, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Ritesh G. Menezes, Vildan Mevsim, Yousef Mohammad, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Esmaeil Mohammadi, Noushin Mohammadifard, Arif Mohammed, Sara Momtazmanesh, Fateme Montazeri, Maryam Moradi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Negar Morovatdar, Christopher J.L. Murray, Zuhair S. Natto, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Ali Nowroozi, Morteza Oladnabi, Ahmed Omar Bali, Emad Omer, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Raffaele Pezzani, Ashkan Pourabhari Langroudi, Sima Rafiei, Mehran Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Shayan Rahmani, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Vahid Rahmanian, Chythra R. Rao, Sina Rashedi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Reza Rawassizadeh, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Malihe Rezaee, Maryam Rezaei, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Gholamreza Roshandel, Aly Saad, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Siamak Sabour, Leila Sabzmakan, Basema Saddik, Erfan Sadeghi, Saeid Sadeghian, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Morteza Saki, Saina Salahi, Sarvenaz Salahi, Amir Salek Farrokhi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Abdallah M. Samy, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Brijesh Sathian, Melika Shafeghat, Syed Mahboob Shah, Jaffer Shah, Ataollah Shahbandi, Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohd Shanawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Javad Sharifi-Rad, Jeevan K. Shetty, Zahra Shokri Varniab, Seyed Afshin Shorofi, Soraya Siabani, Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar, Seidamir Pasha Tabaeian, Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh, Mohammad Tabish, Majid Taheri, Yasaman Taheri Abkenar, Moslem Taheri Soodejani, Amir Taherkhani, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Bereket M. Tigabu, Alireza Vakilian, Siavash Vaziri, Bay Vo, Fereshteh Yazdanpanah, Arzu Yigit, Vahit Yiğit, Mazyar Zahir, Burhan Abdullah Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Moein Zangiabadian, Iman Zare, and Zahra Zareshahrabadi

Subjects
Global burden of disease, Metabolic risk factors, High systolic blood pressure, High fasting plasma glucose, High body-mass index, High-LDL, Medicine (General), R5-920
Abstract

Summary: Background: The objective of this study is to investigate the trends of exposure and burden attributable to the four main metabolic risk factors, including high systolic blood pressure (SBP), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), high body-mass index (BMI), and high low-density lipoproteins cholesterol (LDL) in North Africa and the Middle East from 1990 to 2019. Methods: The data were retrieved from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Summary exposure value (SEV) was used for risk factor exposure. Burden attributable to each risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Findings: While age-standardized death rate (ASDR) attributable to high-LDL and high-SBP decreased by 26.5% (18.6–35.2) and 23.4% (15.9–31.5) over 1990–2019, respectively, high-BMI with 5.1% (−9.0–25.9) and high-FPG with 21.4% (7.0–37.4) change, grew in ASDR. Moreover, age-standardized DALY rate attributed to high-LDL and high-SBP declined by 30.2% (20.9–39.0) and 25.2% (16.8–33.9), respectively. The attributable age-standardized DALY rate of high-BMI with 8.3% (−6.5–28.8) and high-FPG with 27.0% (14.3–40.8) increase, had a growing trend. Age-standardized SEVs of high-FPG, high-BMI, high-SBP, and high-LDL increased by 92.4% (82.8–103.3), 76.0% (58.9–99.3), 10.4% (3.8–18.0), and 5.5% (4.3–7.1), respectively. Interpretation: The burden attributed to high-SBP and high-LDL decreased during the 1990–2019 period in the region, while the attributable burden of high-FPG and high-BMI increased. Alarmingly, exposure to all four risk factors increased in the past three decades. There has been significant heterogeneity among the countries in the region regarding the trends of exposure and attributable burden. Urgent action is required at the individual, community, and national levels in terms of introducing effective strategies for prevention and treatment that account for local and socioeconomic factors. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2023
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2. Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study

Author

Joseph Jon Frostad, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Mathew M Baumann, Brigette F Blacker, Laurie B Marczak, Aniruddha Deshpande, Kirsten E Wiens, Kate E LeGrand, Kimberly B Johnson, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Amir Abdoli, Hassan Abolhassani, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R M Abrigo, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Victor Adekanmbi, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Ziyad Al-Aly, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Vahid Alipour, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Adeladza Kofi Amegah, Saeed Amini, Fatemeh Amiri, Dickson A Amugsi, Robert Ancuceanu, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Marcel Ausloos, Getinet Ayano, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Ashish D Badiye, Atif Amin Baig, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Michelle L Bell, Derrick A Bennett, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Somayeh Bohlouli, Soufiane Boufous, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Dejana Braithwaite, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Felix Carvalho, Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ester Cerin, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Sarika Chaturvedi, Simiao Chen, Dinh-Toi Chu, Sheng-Chia Chung, Saad M A Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Aditya Prasad Dash, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Diego De Leo, Jan-Walter De Neve, Getu Debalkie Demissie, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Sagnik Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Meghnath Dhimal, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Fariba Dorostkar, Leila Doshmangir, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Hisham Atan Edinur, Ferry Efendi, Maha El Tantawi, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Ibtihal Fadhil, Nazir Fattahi, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Mansour Ghafourifard, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Tiffany K Gill, Alessandra C Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Ayman Grada, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Rajat Das Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah R Hamadeh, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Soheil Hassanipour, Khezar Hayat, Behzad Heibati, Reza Heidari-Soureshjani, Nathaniel J Henry, Claudiu Herteliu, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mohamed Hsairi, Guoqing Hu, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Chidozie C D Iwu, Jalil Jaafari, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Tahereh Javaheri, Ravi Prakash Jha, John S Ji, Jost B Jonas, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rohollah Kalhor, Naser Kamyari, Tanuj Kanchan, Umesh Kapil, Neeti Kapoor, Gbenga A Kayode, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Yousef Saleh Khader, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Maseer Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Jagdish Khubchandani, Gyu Ri Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Luke D Knibbs, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Faris Hasan Lami, Qing Lan, Savita Lasrado, Paolo Lauriola, Paul H Lee, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Daiane Borges Machado, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Mina Maheri, Azeem Majeed, Afshin Maleki, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Borhan Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Natalie Maria Martinez, Santi Martini, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Benjamin K Mayala, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Irmina Maria Michalek, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Maryam Mirzaei, Roya Mirzaei, Babak Moazen, Yousef Mohammad, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Abbas Mosapour, Simin Mouodi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Sandra B Munro, Christopher J L Murray, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Sanjeev Nair, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Javad Nazari, Ionut Negoi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Bogdan Oancea, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Anamika Pandey, Eun-Cheol Park, Eun-Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Hai Quang Pham, Thomas Pilgrim, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Maarten J Postma, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Navid Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Sowmya J Rao, Davide Rasella, Prateek Rastogi, Goura Kishor Rath, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Reza Rawassizadeh, Andre M N Renzaho, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Negar Rezaei, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Jennifer Rickard, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Morteza Rostamian, Enrico Rubagotti, Godfrey M Rwegerera, Basema Saddik, Ehsan Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Biniyam Sahiledengle, Marwa Rashad Salem, Abdallah M Samy, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, David C Schwebel, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Saeed Shahabi, Amira A Shaheen, Izza Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali S Shalash, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammed Shannawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Ranjitha S Shetty, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, K M Shivakumar, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Balbir Bagicha Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Yitagesu Sintayehu, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Leo Stockfelt, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Amir Taherkhani, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Saif Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Era Upadhyay, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Santosh Varughese, Francesco S Violante, Bay Vo, Giang Thu Vu, Yasir Waheed, Yuan-Pang Wang, Catherine A Welgan, Andrea Werdecker, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Taraneh Yousefinezhadi, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Sojib Bin Zaman, Yunquan Zhang, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Michael Brauer, Simon I Hay, and Robert C Reiner, Jr

Subjects
Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Summary: Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Published
2022
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