1. Probability density distributions for household air source heat pump electricity demand
- Author
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Michael Chesser, Padraic O'Reilly, Paula Carroll, and Pádraig Lyons
- Subjects
business.industry ,Computer science ,Environmental engineering ,Information technology ,020206 networking & telecommunications ,Probability density function ,02 engineering and technology ,Electricity demand ,Probability density distributions ,Sustainable energy ,Air source heat pumps ,Household electricity use ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,General Earth and Planetary Sciences ,020201 artificial intelligence & image processing ,business ,Ireland ,General Environmental Science ,Air source heat pump - Abstract
The 10th International Conference on Sustainable Energy Information Technology (SEIT 2020), Leuven, Belgium, 9-12 August 2020 The Irish government is implementing policies to transition Ireland to a low carbon and environmentally sustainable economy by 2050. Ireland has sectoral targets of 600,000 installed heat pumps by 2030, currently roughly 28,000 are installed. Such a high target of heat pumps will not only have a significant effect on electricity demand but also on the management and operation of the grid. In this paper we explore the demand from homes heated by air source heat pumps using an innovative dataset from a field trial in Ireland. To assess the impact of large-scale adoption of heat pumps, this paper estimates the after diversity maximum demand per heat pump heated home. In particular we explore statistical distributions to best model coincident demand, and estimate after diversity maximum demand per home. We use the software package RStudio to model several different distributions. Based on goodness-of-fit statistics and criteria, a Gamma distribution is the best fit. We apply our methodology to data from a similar heat pump trial in the UK to complement our results. Enterprise Ireland Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) The International Energy Research Centre (IERC)
- Published
- 2020