Background: Several guidelines recommend the measurement of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) to diagnose heart failure (HF); however, no screening criteria for measuring NT-proBNP in asymptomatic patients exist. We develop/validate a clinical prediction model for elevated NT-proBNP to support clinical outpatient decision-making., Methods: In this multicenter cohort study, we used a derivation cohort (24 facilities) from 2017 to 2021 and a validation cohort at one facility from 2020 to 2021. Patients were aged ≥65 years with at least one risk factor of HF. The primary endpoint was NT-proBNP ≥125 pg/mL. The final model was selected using backward stepwise logistic regression analysis. Diagnostic performance was evaluated for sensitivity and specificity, the area under the curve (AUC), and calibration. In total, 1645 patients (derivation cohort, n = 837; validation cohort, n = 808) were included, of whom 378 (23.0 %) had NT-proBNP ≥125 pg/mL. Body mass index, age, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, cardiothoracic ratio, and heart disease were used as predictors and aggregated into a BASE-CH score of 0-11 points., Results: Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.74 and an external validation AUC of 0.70., Conclusions: Based on available clinical and laboratory variables, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict NT-proBNP ≥125 pg/mL in patients at risk for HF or with pre-HF., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest Saito Y. received research funds from Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Daiichi Sankyo Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Actelion Pharmaceuticals Japan Ltd., Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., Kowa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Dainippon Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd., Teijin Pharma Ltd., Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Eli Lilly Japan K.K., Nihon Medi-Physics Co., Ltd., Novartis Pharma K.K., Pfizer Japan Inc., and Fuji Yakuhin Co., Ltd.; research expenses from Novartis Pharma K.K., Roche Diagnostics K.K., Amgen Inc., Bayer Yakuhin, Ltd., Astellas Pharma Inc., and Actelion Pharmaceuticals Japan Ltd.; speakers' bureau/honorarium from Alnylam Japan K.K., AstraZeneca K.K., Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Kowa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Daiichi Sankyo Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Tsumura & Co., Teijin Pharma Ltd., Toa Eiyo Ltd., Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd., Nippon Boehringer Ingelheim Co., Ltd., Novartis Pharma K.K., Bayer Yakuhin Ltd., Pfizer Japan Inc., Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, and Mochida Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.; and consultation fees from Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and Novartis Pharma K.K. Masuda I. received research funds from Astra Zeneca K.K., Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Takeda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Astellas Pharma Inc., Bayer Yakuhin, Ltd., Nippon Boehringer Ingelheim Co., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Co., Ltd.,Daiichi Sankyo Co., Ltd., Kowa Company, Ltd., MSD K.K., Shionogi & Co., Ltd., Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd., Novartis Pharma K.K., Teijin Pharma Ltd., Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.; and manuscript fees from OMRON HEALTHCARE Co., Ltd. The other authors have no financial conflicts of interest to disclose., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)