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The pediatric International IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) Prediction Tool comprises two models with and without ethnicity and is the first method to predict the risk of a 30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or kidney failure in children at the time of biopsy using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. However, it is unknown if the Prediction Tool can be applied after a period of observation post-biopsy. Using an international multi-ethnic cohort of 947 children with IgAN, 38% of whom were followed into adulthood, the Prediction Tool was updated for use one year after biopsy. Compared to the original pediatric Prediction Tool, the updated post-biopsy Prediction Tool had a better model fit with higher R 2 D (51%/50% vs 20%), significant increase in 4-year C-statistics (0.83 vs 0.73/0.69, ΔC 0.09 [95% confidence interval 0.07-0.10] and ΔC 0.14 [0.12-0.15]) and better 4-year calibration with lower integrated calibration indices (0.74/0.54 vs 2.45/1.01). Results were similar after internal validation and when the models were applied two years after biopsy. Trajectories of eGFR after a baseline one year post-biopsy were non-linear and those at higher predicted risk started with a lower eGFR and experienced a more rapid decline over time. In children, eGFR had a variable rate of increase until 15-18 years old and then decreased linearly with a more rapid decline in higher risk groups that was similar to young adults of comparable risk. Thus, the original pediatric Prediction Tool should be used in children at the time of biopsy, and the updated pediatric Prediction Tool should be used to re-evaluate risk one or two years after biopsy., (Copyright © 2024 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Although IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a common cause of glomerulonephritis in children, the absence of a method to predict disease progression limits personalized risk-based treatment decisions. The adult International IgAN Prediction Tool comprises two validated Cox survival models that predict a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end stage kidney disease (ESKD) using clinical risk factors and Oxford MEST histology scores. Here, we updated the Prediction Tool for use in children using a multiethnic international cohort of 1,060 children with IgAN followed into adulthood. The updated pediatric Prediction Tool had better model fit than the original adult tool with lower Akaike Information Criterion, higher R 2 D and similar C-statistics. However, calibration showed very poor agreement between predicted and observed risks likely due to the observed disease trajectory in children. Therefore, the Tool was updated using a secondary outcome of a 30% reduction in eGFR or ESKD, resulting in better R 2 D (30.3%/22.2%) and similar C-statistics (0.74/0.68) compared to the adult tool but with good calibration. The trajectory of eGFR over time in children differed from adults being highly non-linear with an increase until 18 years old followed by a linear decline similar to that of adults. A higher predicted risk was associated with a smaller increase in eGFR followed by a more rapid decline, suggesting that children at risk of a 30% decrease in eGFR will eventually experience a larger 50% decrease in eGFR when followed into adulthood. As such, these two outcomes are analogous between pediatric and adult Prediction Tools. Thus, our pediatric Prediction Tool can accurately predict the risk of a 30% decline in eGFR or ESKD in children with IgAN., (Copyright © 2020 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We have developed an artificial neural network prediction model for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) using a retrospective cohort of 948 patients with IgAN. Our tool is based on a two-step procedure of a classifier model that predicts ESKD, and a regression model that predicts development of ESKD over time. The classifier model showed a performance value of 0.82 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) in patients with a follow-up of five years, which improved to 0.89 at the ten-year follow-up. Both models had a higher recall rate, which indicated the practicality of the tool. The regression model showed a mean absolute error of 1.78 years and a root mean square error of 2.15 years. Testing in an independent cohort of 167patients with IgAN found successful results for 91% of the patients. Comparison of our system with other mathematical models showed the highest discriminant Harrell C index at five- and ten-years follow-up (81% and 86%, respectively), paralleling the lowest Akaike information criterion values (355.01 and 269.56, respectively). Moreover, our system was the best calibrated model indicating that the predicted and observed outcome probabilities did not significantly differ. Finally, the dynamic discrimination indexes of our artificial neural network, expressed as the weighted average of time-dependent areas under the curve calculated at one and two years, were 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Similar results were observed over a 25-year follow-up period. Thus, our tool identified individuals who were at a high risk of developing ESKD due to IgAN and predicted the time-to-event endpoint. Accurate prediction is an important step toward introduction of a therapeutic strategy for improving clinical outcomes., (Copyright © 2020 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: A 24-48-week course of interferon-based therapy poorly tolerated in hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis patients with thrombocytopenia. Aim of the study was to identify patients at low-risk of liver-related complications over a 12-week course of interferon-based therapy., Methods: We assessed the rate of complications and death during the first 12 weeks of interferon-based therapy in HCV cirrhotics with thrombocytopenia (platelets ≤75×10(9)/L) enrolled in the ENABLE-1 and -2 phase 3 randomised controlled trials., Results: Overall, among 1441 patients, 89 complications (6.9%) and 10 deaths (0.7%) were observed within the first 12 weeks of therapy. At univariate analysis baseline albumin levels and Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (≤35 g /L, p<0.001, and ≥10, p<0.001, respectively) were the only predictors associated with occurrence of complications and death. Of the 1026 patients with serum albumin >35 g/L (71.2%), one patient died (0.1%) and 17 experienced liver-related complications (1.7%). Among 667 patients with serum albumin >35 g/L and MELD score <10, no deaths occurred and 4 experienced liver-related complications (0.6%)., Conclusion: Among HCV cirrhotic patients with thrombocytopenia, albumin levels and MELD score can identify patients who may safely receive a 12-week course of interferon-based therapy with a low risk of complications., (Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Health-related quality of life is an important measure of treatment outcome; its evaluation requires the use of internationally validated ad hoc questionnaires. The McMaster Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (IBDQ) is the most used specific instrument., Aim: To assess the validity and reliability of the Italian translation of the IBDQ., Methods: The IBDQ underwent forward and backward translation; 13 patients were enrolled for cognitive testing of the Italian version to increase clarity. For field testing, 113 patients (65 with Crohn's disease and 48 with ulcerative colitis) completed both the IBDQ and the generic instrument 36-item Short Form Health Survey scale (SF-36)., Results: Data quality was optimal with high completeness and low floor and ceiling effect. Item internal consistency was satisfied for 100% of patients, while discriminant validity showed a few items with higher correlations with other scales. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.96. Test-retest correlations indicated good reliability (Pearson R 0.81). Exploratory factor analysis indicated that the original grouping of the item was suboptimal. The score proved sensitive to disease activity, gender and quality of life as measured by the SF-36., Conclusions: The Italian translation of the McMaster Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire sounds natural and is easy to understand. A field test gave results comparable to other international validations, supporting its use in cross-national surveys., (Copyright © 2011 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)