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The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature ofwarmclimates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausibleM2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude thepossibilityof the existenceof larger icemasses duringM2 in the Northern or SouthernHemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant icemasses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature ofwarmclimates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausibleM2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude thepossibilityof the existenceof larger icemasses duringM2 in the Northern or SouthernHemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant icemasses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

Measurements of Last Interglacial stable water isotopes in ice cores show that central Greenland d18O increased by at least 3& compared to present day. Attempting to quantify the Greenland interglacial temperature change from these ice core measurements rests on our ability to interpret the stable water isotope content of Greenland snow. Current orbitally driven interglacial simulations do not show d18O or temperature rises of the correct magnitude, leading to difficulty in using only these experiments to inform our understanding of higher interglacial d18O. Here, analysis of greenhouse gas warmed simulations from two isotope-enabled general circulation models, in conjunction with a set of Last Interglacial sea surface observations, indicates a possible explanation for the interglacial d18O rise. A reduction in the winter time sea ice concentration around the northern half of Greenland, together with an increase in sea surface temperatures over the same region, is found to be sufficient to drive a >3& interglacial enrichment in central Greenland snow. Warm climate d18O and dD in precipitation falling on Greenland are shown to be strongly influenced by local sea surface condition changes: local sea surface warming and a shrunken sea ice extent increase the proportion of water vapour from local (isotopically enriched) sources, compared to that from distal (isotopically depleted) sources. Precipitation intermittency changes, under warmer conditions, leads to geographical variability in the d18O against temperature gradients across Greenland. Little sea surface warming around the northern areas of Greenland leads to low d18O against temperature gradients (0.1e0.3& per �C), whilst large sea surface warmings in these regions leads to higher gradients (0.3e0.7& per �C). These gradients imply a wide possible range of present day to interglacial temperature increases (4 to >10 �C). Thus, we find that uncertainty about local interglacial sea surface conditions, rather than pr

An abrupt cold event ca. 8200 cal. yr BP, is believed to have been caused by the catastrophic release of ice-dammed meltwater from Lake Agassiz and associated disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Previous reviews have highlighted both the “ideal” nature of the 8200 yr event as a target for numerical model validation and the likely geographical restriction of the ensuing cold event to the circum-North Atlantic region but have cited a lack of sufficiently resolved palaeoclimatic records to test this hypothesis. We review the current set of high-resolution stable isotope records from multiple archives (lake, bog, marine and ice cores) in the North Atlantic region for the period 9200–7400 yr BP (present = AD 1950). The isotopic values of terrestrial records are closely linked to isotopic values of palaeoprecipitation. All sites provided evidence for at least one centennial-scale anomaly (beginning ~ 8500–8250 yr BP) that exceeded background variability. No evidence for spatial or temporal transgression of the isotope anomalies was identified, implying that a simultaneous climate signal was observed in the circum-North Atlantic region. Comparison with new simulations using the UK Hadley Centre model HadCM3, which was isotope-enabled to simulate changes in the stable isotope composition of precipitation and forced by freshwater input (“hosing”) of 5 Sverdrups (Sv) (0.005 km3/s), for 1 yr, indicated agreement with the observed decrease in the amplitude of the isotope anomaly with distance from the NW North Atlantic. The model-simulated duration of the event, however, was consistently shorter than that observed in palaeoclimatic records. A review of evidence for forcing additional to the catastrophic release of meltwater from Lake Agassiz (solar variability, sea-ice feedback and longer-term meltwater history) suggested that reduced solar output did not directly coincide with the 8200 yr event, but that a more complex history of meltwater dis

An abrupt cold event ca. 8200 cal. yr BP, is believed to have been caused by the catastrophic release of ice-dammed meltwater from Lake Agassiz and associated disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Previous reviews have highlighted both the “ideal” nature of the 8200 yr event as a target for numerical model validation and the likely geographical restriction of the ensuing cold event to the circum-North Atlantic region but have cited a lack of sufficiently resolved palaeoclimatic records to test this hypothesis. We review the current set of high-resolution stable isotope records from multiple archives (lake, bog, marine and ice cores) in the North Atlantic region for the period 9200–7400 yr BP (present = AD 1950). The isotopic values of terrestrial records are closely linked to isotopic values of palaeoprecipitation. All sites provided evidence for at least one centennial-scale anomaly (beginning ~ 8500–8250 yr BP) that exceeded background variability. No evidence for spatial or temporal transgression of the isotope anomalies was identified, implying that a simultaneous climate signal was observed in the circum-North Atlantic region. Comparison with new simulations using the UK Hadley Centre model HadCM3, which was isotope-enabled to simulate changes in the stable isotope composition of precipitation and forced by freshwater input (“hosing”) of 5 Sverdrups (Sv) (0.005 km3/s), for 1 yr, indicated agreement with the observed decrease in the amplitude of the isotope anomaly with distance from the NW North Atlantic. The model-simulated duration of the event, however, was consistently shorter than that observed in palaeoclimatic records. A review of evidence for forcing additional to the catastrophic release of meltwater from Lake Agassiz (solar variability, sea-ice feedback and longer-term meltwater history) suggested that reduced solar output did not directly coincide with the 8200 yr event, but that a more complex history of meltwater dis