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This study evaluates the economic feasibility and stochastic dominance rank of eight cellulosic biofuel production pathways (including gasification, pyrolysis, liquefaction, and fermentation) under technological and economic uncertainty. A techno-economic assessment based financial analysis is employed to derive net present values and breakeven prices for each pathway. Uncertainty is investigated and incorporated into fuel prices and techno-economic variables: capital cost, conversion technology yield, hydrogen cost, natural gas price and feedstock cost using @Risk, a Palisade Corporation software. The results indicate that none of the eight pathways would be profitable at expected values under projected energy prices. Fast pyrolysis and hydroprocessing (FPH) has the lowest breakeven fuel price at 3.11$/gallon of gasoline equivalent (0.82$/liter of gasoline equivalent). With the projected energy prices, FPH investors could expect a 59% probability of loss. Stochastic dominance is done based on return on investment. Most risk-averse decision makers would prefer FPH to other pathways., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Recent advances in the thermochemical processing of biomass have resulted in efforts to commercialize several cellulosic biofuel pathways. Until commercial-scale production is achieved, however, techno-economic analysis is a useful methodology for quantifying the economic competitiveness of these pathways with petroleum, providing one indication of their long-term feasibility under the U.S. revised Renewable Fuel Standard. This review paper covers techno-economic analyses of thermochemical cellulosic biofuel pathways in the open literature, discusses and compares their results, and recommends the adoption of additional analytical methodologies that will increase the value of future pathway analyses., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The economic feasibility of a facility producing monosaccharides, hydrogen and transportation fuels via fast pyrolysis and upgrading pathway was evaluated by modeling a 2000 dry metric ton biomass/day facility using Aspen Plus®. Equipment sizing and cost were based on Aspen Economic Evaluation® software. The results indicate that monosaccharide production capacity could reach 338 metric tons/day. Co-product yields of hydrogen and gasoline were 23.4 and 141 metric tons/day, respectively. The total installed equipment and total capital costs were estimated to be $210 million and $326 million, respectively. A facility internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.4% based on market prices of $3.33/kg hydrogen, $2.92/gal gasoline and diesel, $0.64/kg monosaccharide was calculated. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that fixed capital cost, feedstock cost, product yields, and product credits have the greatest impacts on facility IRR. Further research is needed to optimize yield of sugar via the proposed process to improve economic feasibility., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)