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The service sector has the potential to play an instrumental role in the shift towards circular economy due to its strategic position between manufacturers and end-users. However, there is a paucity of supporting methodologies and real-life applications to demonstrate how service-oriented companies can implement circular economy principles in daily business practice. This paper addresses this gap by analysing the potential of service-oriented companies in the information and communication technology (ICT) sector to build and implement circular economy business models. To this end, the Backcasting and Eco-design for the Circular Economy (BECE) framework is applied in an ICT firm. BECE, previously developed and demonstrated for product-oriented applications, has been developed further here for applications in the service sector. By shifting the focus from a product-oriented approach to a user-centred eco-design, the paper shows how ICT firms can identify, evaluate and prioritise sustainable business model innovations for circular economy. The two most promising business model innovations are explored strategically with the aim of designing circular economy models consistent with the company's priorities of customer satisfaction and profitability. The findings suggest that ICT companies may be able to support the deployment of a circular economy in the service-oriented technology sector. Importantly, micro and small organisations can play a fundamental role if provided with macro-level support to overcome company-level barriers. Finally, the BECE framework is shown to be a valuable resource to explore, analyse and guide the implementation of circular economy opportunities in service-oriented organisations. Further research to verify the application of the findings to other service-oriented organisations is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to give a comprehensive and cohesive description of the most recent version of the Framework for Strategic Sustainable Development (FSSD), and also to describe and discuss the overall method for developing the FSSD, elaborate on the general rational for and general benefits of a framework of this type, and validate benefits of the FSSD through examples of its application. The purpose is also to point to pertinent future work. In preparation of this paper, we have reviewed previous publications and other documents related to the FSSD and reflected on the 25-year learning process between scientists and practitioners. We conclude that the FSSD has proven to aid organizations in thoroughly understanding and putting themselves in context of the global sustainability challenge, and to move themselves strategically towards sustainability, i.e., to stepwise reduce their negative impacts on ecological and social systems at large while strengthening the own organization through capturing of innovation opportunities, including new business models, exploration of new markets and winning of new market shares, and through reduced risks and operation costs. Specifically, we conclude that the FSSD aids more effective management of system boundaries and trade-offs, makes it possible to model and assess sustainable potentials for various materials and practices before investments are made, and offers the possibility for more effective collaboration across disciplines and sectors, regions, value-chains and stakeholder groups. We also conclude that the FSSD makes it possible to prevent damages, even from yet unknown problems, and not the least, to guide selection, development and combination of supplementary methods, tools, and other forms of support, which makes it possible to increase their utility for strategic sustainable development. Finally, we have shown that the FSSD is useful for structuring transdisciplinary academic education and research. Several examples of ongoing FSSD related research, as well as ideas for future work, are given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper emphasizes the importance of strategic competencies in education for Sustainable Development. Sustainable Development has been introduced in universities in many different forms. The adjective "Sustainable" has sometimes been added to educational and research activities that were only slightly modified. Integrating SD in education is regarded with mixed feelings. At the one hand academics are often convinced that their own discipline can render large contributions. At the other hand, SD is often perceived as an external interference in their discipline, and therefore as an attempt to make science subordinate to interests. So, if there is a political necessity to do SD, academics often prefer to introduce a separate Sustainable Development course (which can easily be abolished again). In the SD community there is often an opposite view. SD should be integrated in disciplinary courses in order to make a discipline really committed to SD. However, there is a fear of fake integration, or an integration that just depends on the commitment of a single individual. The resulting situation is that SD integration is often limited to some specific courses (depending on the lecturers) and that there is sometimes a specific SD course (optional or compulsory). This paper will first describe why integration is often preferred and then makes observations regarding SD integrated in courses. Afterwards it argues that strategic competencies are crucial for working towards SD, and that these competencies cannot be integrated in ordinary disciplinary courses. It provides some options to teach/develop these competencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The EU has established so-called 20–20–20 targets, which in relation to energy mean that each Member State shall improve energy intensity levels by 3.3% annually, leading to a reduced primary energy use of 20% by the year 2020, calculated from a projected level based on the primary energy use in 2005. Sweden has established a less ambitious target of 1.7% annual energy intensity improvement through 2020. The aim of this paper is to evaluate, ex-ante, the EU 2020 primary energy target for the Swedish industrial sector. An applied backcasting methodology is used. The assessment made in this paper is that actions that lead to between 31.6 and 33.2 TWh/year reductions in energy end-use are needed if the EU target is to be achieved. Results from this paper shows that the current energy policy instruments are not sufficient to the EU or Swedish targets. Estimations in this paper are that a primary energy target of about 22.3 TWh/year is reasonable. The paper concludes by presenting a roadmap on how the Swedish 2020 target can be achieved through: i) energy management; ii) energy-efficient technology; and iii) energy supply measures, with an approximate cost of 280–300 MEUR or 75–80 kWh per public EUR. Three major additional policy measures are needed compared with the current policy: including all energy carriers, not just electricity, in the Swedish long-term agreements program PFE; setting up networks; and making it possible for third parties, i.e., industry, to deliver excess heat into the monopolized Swedish district heating grids. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Various frameworks have been developed to guide organisations in embedding circular economy principles in their strategy and operational practice. However, there is a lack of studies analysing practical implementation of circular economy thinking in the higher education sector. Higher education institutions are strategic agents in supporting sustainable development through teaching, research and social outreach activities. They also represent a source of environmental impacts due to significant resource consumption and waste generation. This paper presents the first comprehensive study showing how higher education institutions can use an action-led step-by-step approach to build a business case and implement circular economy thinking in practice. The University of Manchester is used as an illustrative example of a large higher education institution. First, a background analysis and semi-structured interviews were carried out to determine the scope of the university's current sustainability policies and the ability of the management systems to respond to circular economy challenges. This was followed by stakeholder workshops to identify gaps and opportunities for building a business case for implementation of a circular economy. Finally, a critical assessment of the outcomes was carried out to identify further research needs for implementation of a circular economy in higher education institutions. Although focused on the higher education sector, the proposed action-led approach can be used by any organisation in the service sector looking to build more circular and sustainable business models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A number of different tools for analysing environmental impacts of different systems have been developed. These include procedural tools such as strategic environmental assessment (SEA) and environmental management systems (EMS) as well as analytical ones such as life cycle assessment (LCA), life cycle costing (LCC), cost–benefit analysis (CBA) and the system of economic and environmental accounts (SEEA) including input–output analysis (IOA). Descriptions or scenarios of the future are typically relevant elements in these tools, since they are often used to describe impacts in the future. For futures studies a number of different approaches and techniques have been developed. In an earlier paper we have presented a typology of different types of scenarios that respond to different types of questions. These include predictive scenarios, explorative scenarios and normative scenarios. The aim of this paper is to explore connections between selected tools for environmental systems analysis and different scenario types. Although there is a clear need for futures studies in several tools for environmental systems analysis, it is interesting to note that the literature on methodologies for and case studies of combinations of futures studies and environmental systems analysis tools is rather limited. This suggests that there is a need for further research in this area including both methodology and practical case studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they don''t, mostly — they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low in a growing economy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper deals with teaching participatory backcasting to engineering students as part of the graduate specialisation in sustainability at TU Delft. A course is described using backcasting, sustainable future visions, a systems orientation, and interviews with stakeholders and multi-disciplinary project work. The essentials of backcasting are presented before an outline and results from the backcasting course are described. It is concluded that it has been possible to develop a ‘light’ version of participatory backcasting that can be taught to engineering students in a useful way during a course of 3 study credits (4 ects; European credit transfer system (ects): 1 ects equals 28 h (3.5 days) of study; the previously used studycredit equalled 40 h (5 days) of study). The paper also outlines some results of the Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) project at TU Delft. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The number of tools and approaches to develop sustainability is growing rapidly. Sometimes they are presented as if they are contradictory or in competition. However, a systems approach consistent with basic principles and the requirements of sustainability shows that these tools are complementary and can be used in parallel for strategic sustainable development. In fact, it is only when using these approaches outside of the systemic context of sustainability that they become contradictory. This paper is a collective effort of scientists who have pioneered some of these tools and approaches.The paper maps essential elements for developing sustainability and documents how these elements relate to the application of the respective tools. The objective is to show how these tools and approaches relate to each other and build on each other when used for planning for sustainability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Much attention is being paid to sustainable development goals (SDGs), among which the focus of this paper is on sustainable consumption and production (SCP) in Southeast Asia. The key challenge here is to minimize resource and energy consumption while ensuring an appropriate level of quality of life (QOL). The research question is how visions of SCP in this region in 2050 look like and how the pathways to these visions from the present should be connected. To answer this question, we take a backcasting scenario design approach to gain insight into SCP visions using expert workshops. Generated ideas are represented in the form of logic trees to clarify the cause-effect chain between goals to achieve the vision and possible actions to be taken. Based on the results, the desirable linkage between consumers and producers is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning Support Systems (PSSs) have advanced the process of scenario planning by anticipating potential future outcomes to specific scenario stimulus or investment choices. The models used in these PSSs have typically been restricted to forward-looking exercises, limiting the depth and breadth of understanding of particular problem sets. In this paper we argue that PSS-based scenario planning processes and outcomes might be improved by including multi-directional temporal analysis. This includes alternative timeline navigation methods such as backcasting, recasting, and pastcasting, along with traditional (forward looking) forecasting. These methods can greatly improve the general understanding of modeled results by providing an ability to more deeply inspect the potential consequences of proposed scenarios. We demonstrate these benefits using an application of University of Illinois' Land-use Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM) in McHenry County, IL. In this study, multi-directional techniques were used to analyze the results of LEAM simulation scenarios in terms of actual county spatial and population distributions. Possible issues of variable co-linearity and error attribution were addressed along with a method for improving explanatory power through parameter shrinkage. Based on analysis, we discuss how the ability to navigate through timelines can augment scenario planning processes and help guide strategic sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper envisions alternative scenarios for future cities that are resilient environmentally, socially, economically, and embedded in smart infrastructure and governance. It reinforces the position that although complementary, the backcasting approach is more appropriate for future city planning. There is limited research that envisions how future cities can be backcasted with frugal innovation (FI) underpinning the sustainability pillars. This research aims to narrow the gap. The methodology is based on a systematic literature review and secondary exploratory case studies. The results of the TOWS (threats, opportunities, weaknesses, strengths) analysis on the suitability of FI on smart sustainable cities (SSC) developmental policies show that FI is an affordable and inclusive way to sustainably develop cities without injury to the environment. The findings reveal that the five pillars of a smart sustainable future city can integrate frugal innovation and lean engineering concepts to ensure sustainable development at lower costs. Through frugal innovation embedded in city infrastructure, cleaner methods of production can be realized, and inclusiveness can be fostered. [Display omitted] • The five pillars that underpin a smart sustainable city (SSC) of the future are envisioned. • The backcasting approach was contrasted against forecasting approach. • Conditions under which backcasting is more appropriate are analyzed. • Frugal innovation (FI) is integrable with smart technology for sustainable development. • FI leverages lean engineering approaches to deliver high tech at lower cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an increasing need for the manufacturing industry to achieve environmental sustainability. Scenario design is a promising approach to delineating multiple visions of sustainable manufacturing industries (SMIs). This paper aims to discuss advantages and challenges of a scenario design approach for achieving SMIs. To this end, we review existing scenarios and methods associated with SMIs. Using a backcasting scenario design method, we carry out a case study of Japan's SMI to 2050 in order to examine the potential of scenario design. The results reveal that computer-aided scenario design is helpful for clarifying the logical structure and rationales of the scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Global resource use and the associated environmental impacts continue to grow, partly due to the increasing levels of European material consumption. Many policies and strategies for sustainable everyday life have been initiated by governments and businesses, mainly based on technological innovations for reducing environmental impacts of production processes, designing better products, and providing infrastructure for collective services. There is, however, a growing recognition that sustainable lifestyles can be shaped not only through technological innovation, but also through social innovation. Social innovation is an emergent field of academic research and everyday practice that aims to meet social needs more effectively than existing solutions by engaging the power of social actors, stimulating interactions among them and enabling dynamic social processes. Social innovation is often seen as an important contribution to sustainable living at the local level, but only as a niche with little immediate relevance for advancing large-scale societal change at regime and landscape levels. By employing a participatory backcasting approach, the present research challenges this perception and aims to demonstrate the importance of social innovation processes and stakeholder engagement in envisioning the evolution of mainstream sustainable lifestyles from existing and emerging sustainable practices. The paper presents results of a European social platform project, SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050, which brought together academics, European decision makers, businesses and civil society in order to explore potential visions of sustainable lifestyles in 2050 and identify focus areas for future research. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Electric mobility has the potential to spearhead transport decarbonisation. While there is a vast literature on the potential benefits of electric vehicles (EVs) towards sustainability and national policies of EV adoption, regional and local polices are often overlooked. Hence, this paper aims to capture lessons learned from two bay areas, namely the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) in China and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) in the United States. These two regions are pioneers in electric mobility within the two largest economies of the world. An integrative methodology of transport decarbonisation and backcasting analysis are applied to analyse the progress achieved so far (2000–2018) and to project future carbon reduction potentials (2019–2050). Regional and local transport CO 2 emissions are estimated by a distance-based approach. The results illustrate that electric mobility has led to carbon reductions of 1.73 Mt CO 2 and 0.25 Mt CO 2 in 2018 in GBA and SFBA respectively, contributing to a relative decoupling status in both regions (e = 0.85 & e = 0.14). Intra-regional variability in decoupling status is observed, with stronger spatial variations in GBA. The backcasting analysis suggests that the EV share needs to reach almost 100% before 2035 so that the 450 Delayed Action vision can be achieved. This requires a proactive policy package of cleaner electricity with emissions performance standards, EV sales mandates, expanded public charging infrastructure, and a range of measures to incentivize EV market uptakes. Major driving forces of decoupling, including vehicle kilometre travelled, public transport share, and regional/local EV policies, are also identified and discussed. • Progress and state of electric mobility in the Great Bay and San Francisco Bay areas were estimated. • Spatial and temporal changes in road transport carbon emissions of the two bay areas were examined. • Backcasting analysis to achieve the 450 Delayed Action vision is conducted with three policy packages. • Comprehensive regional-local policies are essential in accelerating electric vehicle market uptake. • High electric vehicle market uptake and clean electricity grid are duly critical to transport decarbonisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper addresses a persistent and worsening societal dilemma worldwide: the ecological unsustainability of the automobile as the primary means for providing personal mobility. The solution to this problem will require input from all segments of society, and must include technological innovation, changes in the physical infrastructure and land use, and social, cultural, and institutional changes. A fundamental rethinking of the entire system of personal mobility is necessary. Governments can play a significant role in promoting change: by stimulating technological innovation through regulations, incentives and subsidies, by investing in the infrastructure, by providing leadership, and by organizing and supporting a debate with a focus on the system as a whole: its spatial characteristics, the motives for transport, and the alternatives that are presently not developed. From the technological perspective, one of the much-discussed solutions is a hydrogen-powered automobile. We argue that the future of this approach is questionable, and propose a fundamental re-framing of the significance of hydrogen: from viewing it as a solution to the personal mobility problem to seeing it as a medium for transporting and storing energy that has been generated elsewhere (preferably by renewable resources). A new and radically different way of seeing the problem of individual mobility, and of the roles of various stakeholders in finding solutions, is also necessary. This is the essence of higher order learning. To facilitate such learning among various societal groups, we advocate a combination of multi-stakeholder visioning processes, scenario building, backcasting exercises, and small-scale socio-technical experiments. These approaches may be practiced at various levels, from local to national, with experimentation probably being best suited for a smaller scale. An ongoing process of visioning future mobility in the Boston Metropolitan area illustrates how such approaches may be used. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper develops a framework, building on backcasting from sustainable outcomes, or more sustainable outcomes, in combination with econometric modelling to arrive at the outcomes. To reach long-term successful objectives by introducing new transport alternatives or services, econometric modelling is suggested as a suitable tool for investigating the presumptive behaviour of key-players. In the need for deriving individual preferences, behavioural modelling can be applied as an essential “pathfinder” in the backcasting framework. The framework is discussed in relation to an office district outside Stockholm, where IT-companies provide efficient transport alternatives for their employees. The long-term vision among the leaders of the companies is to achieve an improved environmental profile, in parallel with reduced travel costs and improved working conditions for the employees, by offering alternatives to private car, taxi and long-distance travel. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]