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• Ideal U -values for 2050 climate projection in the Mediterranean region are determined. • Current well insulated buildings are not prone to overheating in the future. • In the future, ideal U -values are similar or even lower than current ones. • Casablanca is the only location presenting an overheating risk. • The increase of cooling demand will overcome the heating demand decrease. One of the effects of climate change is global warming, which will increase cooling demand in buildings. However, scientific literature does not show consensus on the risk of highly insulated buildings being prone to overheating. This paper presents a statistical comparison of two synthetic datasets for current and future climates in sixteen Mediterranean locations. The weather data for the 2050 climate projection was generated by 'morphing' current weather data. The buildings were created using a generative design method to produce random geometries and random U -values for the envelope elements. Energy performance was evaluated using dynamic simulation. In addition to the expected general increase in cooling demand (up to 137 %) and a smaller reduction in heating demand (up to 63 %), the results demonstrate that the ideal U -values used in the current climate in almost all of the locations will not cause overheating. In several cases, the decrease of the U -values is even recommended for Podgorica, Valencia, Tunis, Malaga, Larnaca, and Alexandria, as the reduction of heating demand compensates the increase of cooling demand. Casablanca was the only location showing an increase in the ideal U -values, thus presenting risk of overheating if using current ideal U -values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change motivates the pursuit of more efficient solutions for heating and cooling of buildings in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While many investigations have been made into how efficiencies can be improved on a technology level, far less are present for how climate change affects the future heating and cooling demand. In this paper, we analyze the extent in which global climate trends change the theoretical heating and cooling demand of buildings. The results are based on the link between heating and cooling of buildings versus climate, and the definition of steps leading from climate to energy consumption. Three different climate scenarios are considered by using the EURO-CORDEX simulations for the case study of Swiss heating and cooling demand. The most severe climate scenario RCP8.5 leads to a −40% decrease of heating degree days and a + 1300% increase of cooling degree days by the end of the century. The presented results can be used for energy system models and for future building design criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]