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Climate change impacts in one country can lead to impacts in distant locations, for example, via internationally traded crops. Previous work has highlighted a need to include cross-border climate change impacts in climate risk assessments, to describe the exposure and transmission of cross-border climate risk across actors, and understand options for managing this risk. In a case study of the Brazil-Europe soy supply chain, this paper aims to explore how stakeholders perceive past and future shocks, how climate change impacts affect stakeholders differently, and how they might respond. Soy is a key internationally traded commodity and Europe relies on imports for the majority of its soy consumption, used widely in livestock feed. Via 96 semi-structured expert interviews, we found different stakeholder groups are vulnerable to different types of weather shocks, experience different price and supply consequences, and have different capacities to respond. While some responses can reduce risk of impacts across the supply chain (e.g. new soy cultivars, improving transport infrastructure), we also identified examples where responses exacerbate risk for other stakeholders (e.g. export bans, changing demand). A holistic cross-border approach to analysing risk in the soy supply chain can help avoid maladaptation and offer opportunities for more collaborative adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behaviour, practices and culture constitute a powerful human factor in the energy system; in particular the interactions between technologies, practices and norms lock individuals in to certain patterns of (often inefficient) energy use. Consequently, behaviour change has gained traction amongst policymakers as a key area of intervention given the impact energy-related behaviours have on climate change. Given the increasing emphasis within policy perspectives in the European Union, it is surprising that a gap in understanding of the success factors of behaviour change initiatives remains. This paper addresses this gap by identifying and characterising behaviour change initiatives across five European countries (the UK, Ireland, France, Italy, and Spain). The paper provides insights into the success factors and commonly encountered barriers to behaviour change initiatives. Initiatives are classified into 6 broad categories (community-based interventions; information and awareness based interventions; eco-districts; show-case events; energy switching; and smart-technology focused interventions). The results suggest that there are significant knowledge gaps between what is known to work to engage individuals in behavioural change and what is currently being applied in practice. An over-reliance on education and awareness-raising projects is evident, illustrating that such projects do not sufficiently aim for sustained behavioural changes. A dearth of projects incorporating fiscal measures, regulations or legislation to drive behaviour change reflects reluctance on behalf of decision-makers to engage widely with diverse approaches to foster lifestyle change. This paper contributes understandings of the different models and delivery tools employed to change energy-related behaviours; insights into the critical success factors that underpin best practice and the barriers to action; and a ‘what works in practice’ overview of the meaningful approaches to change behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biscuits are a major product category in the global confectionary sector. Despite this, their environmental impacts are poorly characterised. Therefore, this paper sets out to evaluate the life cycle environmental sustainability of the following widely-consumed types of biscuit, both at the product and sectoral levels: crackers, low fat/sugar, semi-sweet, chocolate-coated and sandwich biscuits with chocolate or vanilla cream. The results obtained through life cycle assessment demonstrate that, in addition to being healthier, low fat/sugar biscuits have the lowest impacts across most of the 18 categories considered. Chocolate-coated biscuits are environmentally the least sustainable. The most significant life cycle stage for all types is the raw materials production, causing 41%–61% of the total impacts, with flour, sugar and palm oil being the key hotspots. Replacing palm with rapeseed oil would improve five impacts but worsen another five, including a 34% increase in agricultural land occupation and marine eutrophication. Therefore, the cultivation and production of palm oil, rather than its replacement, should be targeted for improvements. The second most crucial stage is manufacturing, contributing up to 54% of the impacts, followed by transport with up to 35%. Reducing energy consumption by 25% in manufacturing would reduce primary energy demand by 8%–12%, fossil fuel depletion by 9%–12% and global warming potential by 6%–9%. The latter would increase by 55% if land use change related to cocoa was involved, despite a very small amount of cocoa in the biscuits (∼1%). The analysis at a sectoral level in the UK, the leading consumer of biscuits in Europe, reveals that biscuits contribute 7.4% of primary energy demand and 0.5% of greenhouse gas emissions of the whole UK food sector. These results can help guide manufacturers in mitigating the hotspots in the supply chain and consumers in selecting environmentally more sustainable biscuits. • The environmental sustainability of six types of biscuit is evaluated for the first time. • Low fat/sugar biscuits have the lowest impacts and chocolate-coated the highest. • Global warming potential of chocolate biscuits is 55% higher with land use change. • Flour, sugar and palm oil are the key hotpots, followed by biscuits manufacturing. • Biscuits contribute 7.4% of energy demand and 0.5% of GWP of the UK food sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] Energy transitions are at the top of global agendas in response to the growing challenges of climate change and international conflict, with the EU positioning itself as playing a pivotal role in addressing climate risks and sustainability imperatives. European energy transition policies identify 'smart consumption' as a key element of these efforts, which have previously been explored from a predominantly technical perspective thus often failing to identify or address fundamental interlinkages with social systems and consequences. This paper aims to contribute to interdisciplinary energy research by analysing a forward looking 'Horizon Scan' research agenda for smart consumption, driven by the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH). Reflecting on an extensive systematic Delphi Method exercise surveying over 70 SSH scholars from various institutional settings across Europe, we highlight what SSH scholars see as future directions for smart consumption research. Building from seven thematic areas (under which are grouped 100 SSH research questions), the study identifies three key 'shifts' this new smart research agenda represents, when compared to previous agendas: (1) From technological inevitability to political choice , highlighting the need for a wider political critique, with the potential to open up discussions of the instrumentalisation of smart research; (2) From narrow representation to diverse inclusion , moving beyond the shortcomings of current discourses for engaging marginalised communities; and (3) From individual consumers to interconnected citizens , reframing smart consumption to offer a broader model of social change and governance. Social Sciences and Humanities scholarship is essential to address these shifts in meaningful (rather than tokenistic) ways. This agenda and the shifts it embodies represent key tools to enable better interdisciplinary working between SSH and teams from the technical and natural sciences. • Smart agenda deliberatively produced by 70+ Social Sciences and Humanities scholars. • 100 questions organised under seven SSH themes, which cut across technologies. • Prior smart research agendas focus on technical goals and traditional institutions. • We propose three shifts: political choice, diverse inclusion, connected citizens. • Questions support non-tokenistic inclusion of social aspects in technology projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is one response to the challenges faced by agriculture due to climate change. As with other sustainability transitions, technological innovation is highlighted as playing a critical role, however, the adoption and diffusion of technological innovations in OECD countries is slow. The aim of this paper is to identify key socio-economic barriers, in terms of supply and demand, that inhibit the adoption and diffusion of CSA technological innovations in Europe. To achieve this aim, a theoretical framework is constructed based on a literature review of socio-economic barriers effecting adoption and diffusion. This framework is explored with data from semi-structured interviews with CSA technology providers and members of agricultural supply chains, such as farmers associations and consumer goods producers (the end-users of the technology). Data was collected on the barriers they experienced, with interviews conducted in the Netherlands, France, Switzerland and Italy. This data was thematically coded and categorised to identify key barrier typologies. The results demonstrate that barriers exist on both the demand (user) and supply (technology provider) sides. The paper provides recommendations for increasing the adoption and diffusion of CSA technological innovations, as well as implications for the CSA and innovation literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sustainable development as a concept that aims to enhance the quality of life without affecting environment has been in focus in European policies since the last decade of 20th century. The objectives of EU Sustainable Development Strategy (EU SDS) are grouped into ten thematic areas, where almost each theme has at least one headline and several operational sustainable development indicators (SDIs). A large number of SDIs is needed to evaluate all EU SDS goals, which imposes the use of multivariate data mining techniques. This paper presents an empirical study carried out to assess the sustainability performance of European countries using the differential multi criteria analysis (DMCA) technique. The PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organization MeTHod for Enrichment Evaluations) was applied on 38 headline and operational SDIs defined under the EU SDS. This DMCA was applied to 30 European countries over a 10-year period (2004–2014) with the aim to determine the theme specific, as well as, overall sustainability progress. The DMCA reveals that the majority of European countries have made progress in sustainability in the studied period, where Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary and Sweden, have enhanced their sustainability performance concerning all themes. There are only two countries, namely Greece and Ireland, which have not made overall progress in this period. Also, above the average progress has been made concerning social inclusion, sustainable transport, and climate change and energy, while in all other themes additional efforts should be made in order to ensure sustainable performance progress in future years. Although the progress in reducing uneven development between EU members has been made, after 2009 a positive trend can be observed only in a limited number of SDS themes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the energy and economic performance of roof and/or façades Building Integrated flat-plate PhotoVoltaic and Thermal (BIPVT) collectors for residential applications. Aim of the analysis is to assess the active and passive effects due to the building integration of solar technologies on the building energy consumptions. In particular, a comparison among innovative building-plant system configurations, based on BIPVT collectors for the simultaneous production of electricity, thermal energy, and domestic hot water, is carried out. The simulation models of the proposed system layouts are designed and implemented in TRNSYS simulation environment for the dynamic assessment of their energy and economic performance. By means of the developed simulation model, the occurring summer and winter building passive energy effects due to the PVT building integration are also analysed. Several case studies are developed by modelling a representative multi-storey residential building and by taking into account different European climates. For such case studies a suitable energy parametric analysis is performed by varying the thermal resistances and capacitances of the building envelope. By the simulation results interesting design and economic feasibility guidelines are obtained. In particular, by varying the weather location and the building-plant configuration, the adoption of BIPVT panels produces a decrease of the primary energy demands from 67% to 89%. The passive effects of the BIPVT system in both the winter and summer season are also assessed for all the investigated climate zones. The calculated economic profitability resulted slightly better for roof BIPVT panels than for roof and façade applications. For the investigated case studies, the pay back periods appear quite long, varying from 11 years for South European weather zones to 20 for North European ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Carbon accounting has evolved rapidly over the past twenty years and now encompasses a wide range of activities with significant financial implications. This paper examines how competence in carbon accounting is being defined and claimed by different actors and communities. Specifically, it focuses on the role of the accountancy profession in carbon accounting, charting its engagement over time and its relationship with other communities involved in carbon accounting. The paper builds on recent work showing that multiple framings and activities are associated with carbon accounting, leading to conflicting views on what it means, how it should be done, and who should be involved. It draws on the concepts of epistemic communities and boundary-work to help explain the role of professions and the emergence of new institutions that mediate between different communities to achieve policy change. We find that, while accountants have undisputed authority in the field of financial reporting of rights and liabilities created under emissions trading schemes (’financial carbon accounting’), their claims to competence in other aspects of organisational carbon accounting overlap with those made by several other communities. Although the accountancy profession’s interest in organisational carbon accounting can be traced back at least as far as 2001, the introduction of emissions trading in Europe in 2005 coincided with the start of a new, as yet largely un-scrutinised, initiative to extend its claims of relevant expertise, through a variety of methods including the promotion of standards for disclosure of physical and strategic climate-related information. The Climate Disclosure Standards Board provides an example of a boundary organisation that has been established by different communities with an interest in carbon accounting, with mutually beneficial results, which has nevertheless resulted in the production of a new Climate Change Reporting Framework that is heavily aligned towards the existing competence of accountancy professionals. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Soil is one of the most important and most complex natural resources, but current developments (urbanisation, erosion and climate change) increasingly threaten this valuable resource in Europe and worldwide. The main objective of this paper is to introduce how changes in soil quality were modelled in the SENSOR project through two indicators: soil carbon content and soil water erosion. Indicators were calculated using state variables and model variables that were mainly derived from the CLUE model which predicts land use change in response to policy scenarios. In the case of erosion, accuracy of the calculations was evaluated by comparing GIS data with the results of the PESERA project. The PESERA and SENSOR models predicted comparable soil loss for the first year in the NUTS-X regions of Europe that were analysed. The higher resolution national soil-loss prediction USLE map largely overestimated the amount of soil loss compared to the PESERA and the SENSOR models in the NUTS-X regions of Hungary. This discrepancy may result from technical or methodological differences such as the spatial reference framework (NUTS-X regions), spatial resolution or levels of data aggregation. The soil organic carbon loss predictions for the NUTS-X regions of Europe are displayed on maps and background data are given in tables. The greatest decreases in soil carbon content may be expected in some regions of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, south-eastern UK and eastern Germany. The greatest increases in soil carbon content may be expected in central and eastern parts of the UK, in Ireland, in northern and central Sweden and Estonia, in Greece, in central and southern Italy, in the island of Sardinia and in some regions of Spain. As erosion strongly reduces soil productivity these predictions have not only environmental but also socio-economic implications. The results presented in this paper could be used at EU level to locate regions where negative changes in soil quality can be expected. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Extreme weather conditions in urban areas have a serious impact on the quality of life, energy consumption and health of urban citizens. In addition energy poverty has a serious impact on the quality of life of low income households. The aim of the present paper is review the actual housing status of low income population in Europe and discuss issues related to the impact of urban overheating and extreme weather phenomena on the specific energy consumption, indoor environmental conditions and health. Finally advanced low cost mitigation and adaptation technologies developed during the last years that offer a serious potential for energy and environmental improvements which can contribute to improve the quality of life of low income population are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the vulnerability to flooding and erosion of four open beach study sites in Europe. A framework for the quantitative estimation of present and future coastal flood and erosion risks is established using methods, data and tools from across a range of disciplines, including topographic and bathymetric data, climate data from observation, hindcast and model projections, statistical modelling of current and future climates and integrated risk analysis tools. Uncertainties in the estimation of future coastal system dynamics are considered, as are the consequences for the inland systems. Different implementations of the framework are applied to the study sites which have different wave, tidal and surge climate conditions. These sites are: Santander, Spain—the Atlantic Ocean; Bellocchio, Italy—the Adriatic Sea; Varna, Bulgaria—the Black Sea; and the Teign Estuary, UK—the northern Atlantic Ocean. The complexity of each system is first simplified by sub-division into coastal “impact units” defined by homogeneity in the local key forcing parameters: wave, wind, tide, river discharge, run-off, etc. This reduces the simulation to that of a number of simpler linear problems which are treated by applying the first two components of the Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (S–P–R–C) approach. The case studies reveal the flexibility of this approach, which is found useful for the rapid assessment of the risks of flooding and erosion for a range of scenarios and the likely effectiveness of flood defences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper focuses on the potential use of insurance as a climate change adaptation mechanism in agriculture. We analyse the attractiveness of a climate risk insurance scheme and the choices farmers face between adaptation via farm management practices and purchase of crop insurance in the market. A choice experiment is used to reveal Danish farmers' preferences regarding an insurance contract where adoption of land management practices to improve soil sustainability is conditional for obtaining insurance cover in the market. Results indicate that in general arable farmers and farmers with low soil quality who have experienced crop damages in the past are more likely to purchase such conditional insurance. Farmers with good quality soils, who perceive that they have already adapted their practices to climatic risks and who have not experienced losses due to adverse climatic events in the past are less willing to purchase insurance. The paper contributes to the limited knowledge on preferences for climate risk related insurance in agricultural systems in general, and in Europe in particular. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Energy efficiency in buildings is essential for economic, social, and environmental reasons. Under current European legislation, buildings have to be certified with an energy efficiency index. To provide a fair comparison of the energy performance in buildings we need a global and unified representation. In this paper we propose the Energy Efficiency Ontology (EEOnt) to provide a foundation upon which this requirement can be built. EEOnt extends the applicability of other ontological models of buildings incorporating energy efficiency data and knowledge that can be calculated with high spatial and temporal resolution in what we call an Energy Efficiency Landscape (EELB). These EELB''s provide significant information which allows a detailed diagnosis of the energy efficiency within the building. Consequently, EEOnt is capable of representing buildings and energy efficiency in a unified way. Furthermore, it supplies a tool for managing the energy efficiency in buildings and constructing national inventories. These two features link the global and particular needs of governments and users, thus becoming key to both improve the energy efficiency in buildings and to implement viable certification schemes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In democratic societies, citizens have the right to know whether their elected representatives address environmental problems successfully or not. Voters can judge their governments’ economic performance by looking at GDP growth and unemployment rates; equally simple measures for environmental policies face a number of obstacles, inter alia: the complexity of the policy field “environment”, lack and quality of data, absence of scientific and political consensus on the relative importance of sub-fields like climate change, waste, and biodiversity, and the tendency of expert communities to get lost in details rather than communicating the big picture. This paper will define rules and show ways for overcoming these obstacles. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In order to make projections for future air-quality levels, a robust methodology is needed that succeeds in reconstructing present-day air-quality levels. At present, climate projections for meteorological variables are available from Atmospheric-Ocean Coupled Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) but the temporal and spatial resolution is insufficient for air-quality assessment. Therefore, a variety of methods are tested in this paper in their ability to hindcast maximum 8 hourly levels of O3 and daily mean PM10 from observed meteorological data. The methods are based on a multiple linear regression technique combined with the automated Lamb weather classification. Moreover, we studied whether the above-mentioned multiple regression analysis still holds when driven by operational ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) meteorological data. The main results show that a weather type classification prior to the regression analysis is superior to a simple linear regression approach. In contrast to PM10 downscaling, seasonal characteristics should be taken into account during the downscaling of O3 time series. Apart from a lower explained variance due to intrinsic limitations of the regression approach itself, a lower variability of the meteorological predictors (resolution effect) and model deficiencies, this synoptic-regression-based tool is generally able to reproduce the relevant statistical properties of the observed O3 distributions important in terms of European air quality Directives and air quality mitigation strategies. For PM10, the situation is different as the approach using only meteorology data was found to be insufficient to explain the observed PM10 variability using the meteorological variables considered in this study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change research is currently a topic of great interest for economic researchers. In particular, environmental input–output analysis increasingly plays an important role in measuring the economic and environmental effects of sustainable development policies in Europe. Other approaches also exist, such as econometric modelling, in which impacts are quantified on statistical grounds and with certain desirable properties (efficient estimates, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, etc.) that are not found in the input–output approach. Consequently, this paper merges the two approaches to address the calculation of unbiased and consistent carbon dioxide emission multipliers for Denmark and their respective confidence intervals. The use of the supply and use system instead of the symmetric input–output table also presents the opportunity to avoid the common problems associated with the construction of technical coefficients (technology assumptions, negatives, etc.). Moreover, a new policy-relevant application of these multipliers is introduced: the quantification of the performance of the carbon dioxide emission reductions carried out by industries via external trading. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper analyses effects of changes in temperatures on heating and cooling demands in Europe until 2050. Specifically, the study addresses changes in trends (10-year mean) and extremes (10-year min/max). The analysis is based on two GHG emission climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) and eight high-resolution regional climate models and results are provided as relative and absolute changes on grid and country scales. Population density is used as proxy for spatial distribution of demands. Projected future temperatures are proportional with RCP scenario and distance into the future and the highest relative changes occur towards north-eastern Europe and for high-altitude areas. The temperature changes lead to general decreased heating demands and corresponding increased cooling demands. In general, higher spreads are seen between demand change ratios for individual models when addressing extremes as opposed to trends: The general 2010–2050 change ratios for heating between countries are 0.85–95 for model means and average 0.69 for the extreme analysis. For cooling, corresponding ratios are 1.25–1.5 for model means and average 2.76 for model maxima. For absolute demand changes, some countries are projected to experience significant changes e.g. exceeding a doubling in cooling demands. The results are suggested as a basis for energy system analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Net-zero emissions are modelled for electricity, heating and cooling in Europe. • System cost decreases thanks to heat savings, but not for climate change scenarios. • Lower heat demand disfavours heat pumps as surplus electricity is used by resistors. • Cheaper heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. To limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C, fossil-free energy systems will be required eventually. To understand how such systems can be designed, the current state-of-the-art is to apply techno-economical optimisation modelling with high spatial and temporal resolution. This approach relies on a number of climatic, technical and economic predictions that reach multiple decades into the future. In this paper, we investigate how the design of a fossil-free energy system for Europe is affected by changes in these assumptions. In particular, the synergy among renewable generators, power-to-heat converters, storage units, synthetic gas and transmission manage to deliver an affordable net-zero emissions system. We find that levelised cost of energy decreases due to heat savings, but not for global temperature increases. In both cases, heat pumps become less favourable as surplus electricity is more abundant for heating. Demand-side management through buildings' thermal inertia could shape the heating demand, yet has modest impact on the system configuration. Cost reductions of heat pumps impact resistive heaters substantially, but not the opposite. Cheaper power-to-gas could lower the need for thermal energy storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate change affects long-lived infrastructures like electricity systems. • Decarbonization will largely be based on variable renewable energies. • Impacts of climate change work differently in size and direction. • Two investment planning strategies are compared: Anticipate climate change yes or no. • Total effects but also isolated effects on potential welfare loss are estimated. Ongoing climate change affects complex and long-lived infrastructures like electricity systems. Particularly for decarbonized electricity systems based on variable renewable energies, there is a variety of impact mechanisms working differently in size and direction. Main impacts for Europe include changes in wind and solar resources, hydro power, cooling water availability for thermoelectric generation and electricity demand. Hence, it is not only important to understand the total effects, i.e., how much welfare may be gained when accounting for climate change impacts in all dimensions, but also to disentangle various effects in terms of their marginal contribution to the potential welfare loss. This paper applies a two-stage modeling framework to assess very strong climate change impacts on a cost-optimally decarbonized, highly renewables-based European electricity system. Thereby, the performance of two electricity system design strategies – one based on no anticipation of climate change and one anticipating impacts of climate change – is studied under a variety of climate change impacts. Impacts on wind and solar resources are found to cause the largest system effects in 2100. Combined climate change impacts increase system costs of a system designed without climate change anticipation due to increased fuel and carbon permit costs. Applying a system design strategy with climate change anticipation increases the cost-optimal share of variable renewable energy based on additional wind offshore capacity in 2100, at a reduction in nuclear, wind onshore and solar photovoltaics capacity. Compared to a no anticipation strategy, total system costs are reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]