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"Rural Australia" has long been a special site of political contestation. Staking the terms of public depictions of "the rural", "the bush", or "country life" is a constitutive thread running through Australian settler colonial identity and a cornerstone of national electoral politics. This paper analyses major News Corporation media outlets' presentation of an evolving political campaign, comparing contesting representations of farming and rural Australia deployed by the Morrison Coalition government and advocacy group Farmers for Climate Action, in the period between the government's re-election in May 2019 and July 2021. The paper steps through the key tactical discursive moves made by these contesting parties. It argues that in their depictions of rural Australia there are two important features that these perspectives share. Both embrace a discourse of increased agricultural productivity inspired by high-tech innovation, and both are silent on the related social and economic transformations that undergird the "crisis" of the rural. Consequently, public political contestation over rural policy unfolds without engaging transforming structural arrangements that fundamentally organise work and life on the land. • Presents comparative depictions of rurality by the Australian prime minister and advocacy group Farmers for Climate Action. • Political contests over the representation of the rural during the time of accelerating climate change are shown to have strong temporal framings. • Both government and Farmers for Climate Action embrace a discourse of increased agricultural productivity inspired by high-tech innovation and both are silent on socio-economic transformations. • Farmers for Climate Action have made significant steps towards normalising the idea that farming and climate activism go hand in hand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irrigation is an important adaptation strategy to cope with climate change which reduces vulnerability to water stress and improves crop productivity to feed millions. There is evidence of crop yield stagnation in many developing countries, and irrigation efficiency is claimed to increase crop productivity. Therefore, this paper uses data envelopment analysis to evaluate the farmer's productivity through technical efficiency (TE), i.e., the relationship between resource inputs and outputs of 513 paddy farmers in Eastern India. The results show that the farms are, on average operating at 14% TE, leaving a considerable scope to improve up to 86% to reach the optimal level. A significant difference is observed between irrigated and rain-fed paddy farmers, such that10% of the irrigated farms achieved efficiency scores over 40% and only 2% of rain-fed farms achieved the same. The tobit and beta fit regression models are estimated to find out the factors that influence the TE. Both surface water and groundwater sources of irrigation are used as predictors, along with other socio-demographic factors. Access to surface water irrigation is identified to be a significant determinant of farm efficiency, however, surface water irrigation, such as canal irrigation, is accessible only to farmers living on plain land. Farmers living on highlands need to explore other sources of irrigation practices, such as drip and sprinkler, that can increase TE and farm productivity. Therefore, this paper calls for government intervention to provide extensive training and facilities for these micro-irrigation practices. • Data Envelopment analysis was estimated to derive the paddy efficiency among the tribal villages of eastern India. • The DEA estimates show that average Technical efficiency in the study region is much below the national average. • Irrigated farmers are more efficient than the rain-fed farmers. Surface irrigation is the dominate factor. • Rain-fed paddy cultivators' farm efficiency would improve by 6.5%, if they had irrigated. • Semi-mountainous regions with little access to surface irrigation must explore micro-irrigation practices such as drips and sprinklers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to seriously affect agricultural livelihoods and food security in all Pacific Island countries. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation contends that, to adapt, both 'modern' and Indigenous agricultural practices and knowledge are needed. A challenge lies in combining agricultural knowledge systems and enabling adaptive knowledge to be shared amongst Pacific Islanders. Opportunities to integrate different types of agricultural knowledge (including 'modern' and Indigenous) are needed. This paper argues that international labour mobility programmes provide an avenue for knowledge exchange that can support climate change adaptation in agriculture. It presents empirical evidence from research with 33 Pacific Islanders who grow crops in their home countries and were employed in Australia's Seasonal Worker Programme (SWP). We demonstrate how SWP participation opened new possibilities for climate change adaptation in agriculture in the Pacific Islands. Adaptive knowledge stems from SWP workers' exposure to different agricultural skills and ideas in Australia, combined with their knowledge and experience of crop production in their countries of origin. SWP participation created opportunities for workers to draw on different agricultural skills and knowledge on return to the Pacific Islands. The ability for SWP workers to then exchange adaptive knowledge with other Pacific Islanders is enabled by their social relationships, the likes of which an official agricultural extension officer might not have to the same degree. So far, such adaptive agricultural knowledge and skills exchanges are serendipitous. There is scope to explicitly build climate change knowledge exchange into agriculture-focused international labour mobility schemes. • International labour mobility schemes facilitate agricultural knowledge exchange. • Labour mobility migrants adapt acquired agricultural knowledge to their countries. • International labour mobility schemes can build adaptive capacity in agriculture. • Adaptive capacity from labour mobility can spread via agricultural extension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nordic countries’ agricultural sector is potentially considered both a winner and loser in relation to climate change. With effective adaptation management, climate change could lead to increased agricultural productivity. Yet if concurrent challenges are left unaddressed, productivity losses may impede gains. Thus, adaptation to climate change is key both to avoid negative consequences and to benefit from opportunities. This paper conducts the first systematic literature review of scientific and grey literature on climate change related opportunities and challenges in Nordic agriculture, resulting in a complex overview of required adaptation actions. The synthesis on suggested adaptation policies and measures shows that farm based adaptation measures appear to be more abundant and more discussed than policy driven adaptation in the scientific literature. This paper identifies a knowledge gap regarding the complexity of adaptation needs and trade-offs in the Nordic agricultural sector. In conclusion, although the agricultural sector in the Nordic region is facing certain benefits from climate change, this review demonstrates profound challenges related directly to climate change. The synthesis of suggested adaptation actions furthermore indicates that adaptation involve trade-offs, however, increased knowledge on this subject is required. Failing to address these challenges might impede Nordic agriculture’s potential gains from climate change in a long-term perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has led to extreme weather events and food security issues, which have become urgent global problems. Crop models and hydrological models play important roles in analyzing these issues, but crop models have limitations in large-scale simulations, and hydrological models have shortcomings in depicting underlying surface details. Jointly using the two models to complement each other's shortcomings is becoming an important method, playing an important role in improving the quantitative characterization ability of different facets of agricultural production and is crucial to improving the efficiency of water resources utilization. This paper reviews the development process of crop and hydrological models and summarizes the widely used models at present, providing reference for researchers to select crop and hydrological models; secondly, it summarizes the types, methods, and examples of joint use of models, and analyzes possible problems in model combination; finally, some suggestions are put forward for the joint use of crop and hydrological models, providing a reference for researchers to combine models. • Retrospect on the development process of crop and hydrological models. • Summarized case studies on the combination of crop and hydrological models. • Provide an overview of cases where crop and hydrological models are used in conjunction. • General considerations and suggestions for future development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the intricate relationship between agricultural productivity and the pursuit of a just energy transition in China. As the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases and a nation grappling with environmental degradation and socio-economic disparities, China faces the imperative to transition toward a more sustainable and equitable energy system. This paper investigates the role of agriculture in this transition, recognizing its pivotal position as a significant emitter of greenhouse gases while also being vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. By examining the potential synergies and conflicts between agricultural productivity enhancement and the goals of reducing emissions and promoting social justice, this study aims to shed light on strategies that can effectively align agricultural development with the objectives of a just energy transition. The result indicates substantial internal disparities and strong agglomeration effects (referring to areas with similar agricultural total factor productivity) within China's agricultural total factor productivity distribution. Over the past 17 years (2005–2021), the average agricultural productivity has shown a commendable upward trend, marking a 2.8% growth rate. This increase signifies ongoing efforts and advancements in the agricultural sector, leading to improved productivity levels. Our results also show a significant positive spatial correlation in agricultural total factor productivity, suggesting a tendency for spatial agglomeration. The years 2005 and 2021 stand out as periods marked by significant adverse effects resulting from the interplay of diverse factors on agricultural productivity. By integrating findings from various sectors, this study provides insights into the complex interplay between agriculture and energy transition, emphasizing the need for integrated, holistic approaches that prioritize sustainability, fairness, and resilience in China's pursuit of a just energy future. • This study explores the relationship between agricultural productivity and energy transition. • Our aim is to align agricultural development with the objectives of energy transition. • The analysis connects productivity and equity. • We emphasize sustainability and resilience in China's pursuit of a just energy future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenarios are valuable tools that could support decision making under deep uncertainty, nevertheless, their potential remains untapped. The paper explores whether participatory scenario construction in the form of stories coupled with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2100 projections may contribute to increased utility of the scenarios and projections for climate-induced risk reduction, in the Nile Basin. The Nile River is 6,695 kilometres long and covers a basin area of 3.18 million square kilometres (one-tenth of the African land mass). The basin is highly susceptible to climate-change induced disasters. According to the IPCC, there is high confidence that the Basin will suffer from severe shifts in biome distribution, compounded water stress, degradation of marine life and reduced crop productivity. There is also medium confidence that the Nile Basin will experience: severe decline in livestock, significant increase in vector and water-borne diseases, undernutrition, increased migration and sea level rise. The basin is already experiencing some of these key risks, on the other hand, their impact in the next 30 to 35 years is deeply uncertain. The findings of this paper are based on four scenarios, namely: Kazuri, Miskeen, Umoja and EjoHeza and data collected from two forums that were held in Jinja, Uganda and Nairobi, Kenya. The forum participants were a multi-disciplinary team of national and international stakeholders. The paper concludes that coupling Nile Basin storylines with the IPCC 2100 projections, proved to be an effective tool in increasing the utility of the scenarios and projections, for purposes of disaster risk reduction. Future work will entail analysing the uptake of the scenarios to resolve deadlocks and enhance cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has had a significant impact on global agricultural production. Hence, studying the impact of climate change on the efficiency of agricultural production has become crucial in helping major agricultural regions around the world adopt novel technologies to improve the adaptability of agricultural production. The efficiency of agricultural production can also be improved, and global food safety can be ensured at the same time. This paper used data collected from 43 countries around the world from 1992 to 2018. The data envelopment analysis-Malmquist model was used to estimate agricultural productivity with and without the presence of climate factors, and data comparison and analysis were performed among years and regions. The results show that climate factors can overestimate agricultural productivity. On the whole, climate factors have a positive impact on agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and a negative impact in other areas. In addition, the impact of climate change on technical progress is greater than the impact on technical efficiency. According to the results, this paper finds that relevant departments should pay attention to the development of agricultural technology under climate change and should carry out suitable management based on geographical location and climate conditions. In summary, the research methods and results of this article provide a reference for the progress of agricultural production under global climate change. • Data collection from 43 countries around the world. • A comparative analysis of agricultural production between developed and underdeveloped regions. • The impact of climate change on technical progress is remarkable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural food production is both affected by and contributing to climate change. At the global scale, agri-food systems are responsible for one-third of total greenhouse gas emissions. With progressing climate change, the risks of crop failure increase. Thus, an urgent need is to reduce emissions from food systems while increasing their resilience to climate change. Enormous untapped potentials to achieve these dual goals lie in transforming agri-food systems towards more diverse, plant-based, and regional food production systems. In this paper, we present an innovative approach for identifying climate-adapted alternative food crops that could (1) help to diversify existing cropping systems and thus increase their climate resilience and can be (2) nutritious elements of plant-based regional diets with reduced emissions. The approach builds on the model ecocrop to select food crops that could benefit from regionally projected changes in climate. The model-based analysis is complemented with a literature review to examine the ecocrop results for their plausibility and provide a broader assessment of potentials for cultivation, utilization, and nutritional values of model-selected crops. The approach is applied to Switzerland, where we identify eight alternative crops with the potential to increase climate resilience while contributing to healthy human diets of regional consumers with benefits for climate mitigation (almond, pecan, sesame, durum wheat, quinoa, lentil, lupine, and borage). The literature review indicated that the increasing demand for many of these crops suggests great potential for regional marketing of crop products. The results produced in this study provide an initial guide for researchers and innovative farmers interested in experimenting with alternative crops in Switzerland, thus promoting climate-smart food system transformation from the production side. Using our unbiased bottom-up screening approach, we identified climate-adapted alternative crops that can provide essential nutrients, cover nutritional gaps in Switzerland, diversify existing production systems, and improve sustainability. [Display omitted] • Innovative bottom-up screening approach identifies climate-adapted alternative crops. • Almond, pecan, sesame, durum wheat, quinoa, lentil, lupine, and borage are identified. • Identified crops provide essential nutrients and cover nutritional gaps in Switzerland. • Selected crops can diversify existing production systems to improve sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We calculated carbon sequestration/emissions in agroecosystems in Hebei, China. • We measured agricultural production efficiency considering an undesirable output. • The annual average low-carbon agriculture production efficiency increased by 3.03%. • There were disparities of efficiency among cities owing to increased carbon emission. • Climate change had complex effects on low-carbon agricultural production. With the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, global greenhouse effects have intensified, thereby contributing to climate change. Agriculture contributes to climate change by increasing GHG emissions, and climate change in turn affects agricultural production. In this paper, we calculated carbon emissions and sequestration of agriculture in the 142 counties of Hebei Province, China, and analyzed their spatiotemporal distributions during 2000–2010. Considering net carbon emissions as an undesirable output, we then measured low-carbon agricultural production efficiency using a stochastic directional distance function. We further explored the impacts of climate change on low-carbon agricultural production. We found that carbon emissions in agriculture increased by 15.85% (650 million tons) during 2000–2010, while carbon sequestration in agroecosystems increased by 33.82% (13.8 million tons). The annual average low-carbon agricultural production efficiency increased by 3.03%. There were distinct disparities of efficiency among cities, with the highest efficiency in Chengde and Shijiazhuang. The efficiency in southeastern areas was lower than that in the northwest, owing to the increased carbon emissions. Temperature and precipitation had a positive effect on efficiency in Hebei, whereas extreme weather events caused lower efficiency. The results provide valuable references for developing sustainable, climate-resilient and adaptive agriculture under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper combines panel data from nationally representative household-level surveys in Nigeria with long-term satellite-based spatial data on temperature and precipitation using geo-referenced information related to households. It aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, income shares, crop mix, and input use decisions. We measure climate change in harmful degree days, growing degree days, and changes in precipitation using long-term (30 year) changes in temperature and precipitation anomalies during the crop calendars. We find that, controlling for other factors, a 15% (one standard deviation) increase in change in harmful degree days leads to a decrease in agricultural productivity of 5.22% on average. Similarly, precipitation change has resulted in a significant and negative impact on agricultural productivity. Our results further show that the change in harmful degree days decreases the income share from crops and nonfarm self-employment, while it increases the income share from livestock and wage employment. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that farmers change their crop mix and input use to respond to climate changes, for instance reducing fertilizer use and seed purchases as a response to increases in extreme heat. Based on our findings, we suggest policy interventions that incentivize adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, such as small-scale irrigation and livelihood diversification. We also propose targeted pro-poor interventions, such as low-cost financing options for improving smallholders' access to climate-proof agricultural inputs and technologies, and policy measures to reduce the inequality of access to livelihood capital such as land and other productive assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Significant progress has been made in the use of ensemble agricultural and climate modelling, and observed data, to project future productivity and to develop adaptation options. An increasing number of agricultural models are designed specifically for use with climate ensembles, and improved methods to quantify uncertainty in both climate and agriculture have been developed. Whilst crop–climate relationships are still the most common agricultural study of this sort, on-farm management, hydrology, pests, diseases and livestock are now also examined. This paper introduces all of these areas of progress, with more detail being found in the subsequent papers in the special issue. Remaining scientific challenges are discussed, and a distinction is developed between projection- and utility-based approaches to agro-climate ensemble modelling. Recommendations are made regarding the manner in which uncertainty is analysed and reported, and the way in which models and data are used to make inferences regarding the future. A key underlying principle is the use of models as tools from which information is extracted, rather than as competing attempts to represent reality. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Irrigation plays an increasing important role in agriculture of China. The assessment of water resources utilization during agricultural production process will contribute to improving agricultural water management practices for the irrigation districts. The water footprint provides a new approach to assessing the agricultural water utilization. The present paper put forward a modified calculation method to quantify the water footprint of crop. On this basis, this paper calculated the water footprint of major crop in Hetao irrigation district, China. Then, it evaluated the influencing factors that caused the variability of crop water footprint during the study period. Results showed that: 1) the annual average water footprint of integrated-crop production in Hetao irrigation district was 3.91m3 kg−1 (90.91% blue water and 9.09% green water). The crop production in the Hetao irrigation district mainly relies on blue water; 2) under the integrated influences of interannual climate variability and variation of agricultural inputs, the water footprint of integrated-crop production displayed a decreasing trend; 3) the contribution rate of the climatic factors to the variation of water footprint was only −6.90%, while the total contribution rate of the agricultural inputs factors was −84.31%. The results suggest that the water footprint of crop mainly depends on agricultural management rather than the regional climate and its variation. The results indicated that the water footprint of a crop could be controlled at a reasonable level by better management of all agricultural inputs and the improvement of water use efficiency in agriculture. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent experience of food price volatility in global markets encourages closer examination of the dynamics underlying the global food system and reveals a range of contingent factors. Meanwhile a common thread of many recent expert reports has emphasised the need to intensify agricultural production to double food output by 2050. Drawing upon a food regimes approach, the paper argues that the global food system is vulnerable to three inter-connected challenges that make a largely productivist strategy inappropriate. Analysis suggests that there is a strong likelihood of rising energy costs given the anticipated decline in conventional oil supplies which will have repercussions for land-use and food security. Climate change scenarios anticipate rates of warming and drying in large areas of the tropics that will also have huge implications for food security in those areas. Yet the mode of operation of the global food system is to deliver poor quality nutrition with significant dietary health consequences, a phenomenon labelled malconsumption. The paper argues that these issues are closely inter-related and until we address the fact that the global food system remains dominated by powerful economic interests, an effective solution will remain elusive. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate change will affect agricultural production by subsistence farms in crop centers of origin, where landraces are conserved in situ. Various strategies for adaptation to climate change have been proposed. In this paper we examine the prospects of what we call the ‘transgenic adaptation strategy’, i.e. the appeal to use transgenic seeds to adapt to climate change, through the lens of smallholder maize farming in Mexico. Landraces are the bedrock of maize production in Mexico. We consider how maize farmers may respond to climate change and the effects of those responses on crop diversity. In this paper, we argue that the promotion of the transgenic adaptation strategy is problematic for biological and social reasons. Smallholder livelihoods in southern Mexico could suffer a disproportionate negative impact if transgenic technology is privileged as a response to climate change. Agroecological and evolutionary approaches to addressing the effects of climate change on smallholder agriculture provides an alternative adaptive strategy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Late Holocene histories of vegetation, human activity, and climate inland of the Nobi Plain, central Japan, were investigated using pollen, charcoal, and chronological (radiocarbon and pottery) analyses of the Arao-Minami archaeological sediment layers. This site was home to a large regional community from the Yayoi to Kofun periods. Agricultural production of buckwheat began before the Middle Yayoi (∼200 BC). Cultivated Poaceae increased in the warm period at ca. 2.2–1.7 cal ka BP (ca. 250 BC to ca. 250 AD), based on the pollen-based climate indices. This can be regarded as intensified wet rice agriculture occurring at this period because the archaeological examinations report the existence of paddy-field remains and rice phytoliths from the Late Yayoi to Early Kofun. This period approximately corresponds to the Roman Warm Period. Primary natural forests, such as Quercus subg. Lepidobalanus , Quercus subg. Cyclobalanopsis , Cupressaceae, and Cryptomeria , as well as cultivated Poaceae gradually decreased from ca. 1.7 to ca. 1.2 cal ka BP (ca. 250 AD to 750 AD), which corresponds to the Dark Age Cold Period. In contrast, an expansion of Pinus conifer forests and temporal rises of accumulation rates occurred in this period. Based on the evidences, we propose that the agriculture at this site temporarily changed to slash-and-burn cultivation at a nearby mountain, associated with the cold climate. In the warm period from ca. 1.2 cal ka BP (ca. 750 AD), cultivated Poaceae increased again, suggesting a return to wet rice agriculture around the site. In this paper, we conclude that ancient people who lived inland of the Nobi Plain adapted to global climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact assessment has become a universal concern and attracted more attentions all over the world. The climate change has an increasingly serious impact on water resources and grain production. Strengthening scientific research in relevant fields of climate change and enhancing grain production in order to adapt to climate change is of vital significance to guarantee food security, improve farmers' income and maintain social stability. This paper constructs a new economic-climate model based on the original Cobb-Dougla (C-D) production function by adding climate factors, and empirically analyzes the impacts of climate change on grain yield and illustrates regional differences. Constraints of water resource restriction on agricultural yields and agricultural planting structure are also proposed. Based on the analysis of the correlation between climate change and grain yield, the relationship between the use of irrigation water and irrigation is proposed. Human factors such as agricultural technology innovation, policy mechanism guarantee and increase in farmland water conservancy construction investment can mitigate all kinds of negative impacts of climate warming on the Chinese agricultural water to a certain extent. • Constructs a new economic-climate model based on C-D production. • Taking both natural and socio-economic factors into account for Chinese grain production • Analyzes the impact of climate change on irrigation water and grain yield. • Establishes the relationship between agricultural irrigation water use per unit area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Regional crop production forecasting is growing in importance in both, the public and private sectors to ensure food security, optimize agricultural management practices and use of resources, and anticipate market fluctuations. Thus, a model and data driven, easy-to-use forecasting and a risk assessment system can be an essential tool for end-users at different levels. This paper provides an overview of the approaches, algorithms, design, and capabilities of the CCAFS Regional Agricultural Forecasting Toolbox (CRAFT) for gridded crop modeling and yield forecasting along with risk analysis and climate impact studies. CRAFT is a flexible and adaptable software platform designed with a user-friendly interface to produce multiple simulation scenarios, maps, and interactive visualizations using a crop engine that can run the pre-installed crop models DSSAT, APSIM, and SARRA-H, in concert with the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) for seasonal climate forecasts. Its integrated and modular design allows for easy adaptation of the system to different regional and scientific domains. CRAFT requires gridded input data to run the crop simulations on spatial scales of 5 and 30 arc-minutes. Case studies for South Asia for two crops, including wheat and rice, shows its potential application for risk assessment and in-season yield forecasting. Highlights • An integrated modeling framework, CRAFT, has been developed for gridded simulations at 5 and 30 arc-minutes resolutions. • It allows within-season yield forecasting, risk analysis, and climate change impact studies. • It incorporates seasonal climate forecasts using the Climate Predictability Tool. • The current version can run the pre-installed DSSAT, APSIM, and SARRA-H, but support for any crop model can be added. • CRAFT is a desktop application that can produce multiple simulation scenarios, maps, and interactive visualizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper explores the relationship between past climate and prehistoric Mediterranean agriculture by adapting a process-based dynamic vegetation model to estimate potential agricultural productivity under climate scenarios that characterize the extremes of Mediterranean climate in the Holocene. We adapt LPJmL (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena-managed-land model [Bondeau et al., 2007]), a process-based dynamic vegetation model, to the modeling of potential agricultural productivity in the past. Calibrating this model for past crops and agricultural practices and using a downscaling approach to produce high spatiotemporal resolution paleoclimate data, we produce quantitative estimates of potential yields under past climatic conditions derived from four Holocene climatic extremes (warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry) under two different assumptions (approximate high and low limits) about the intensity of agricultural practice. We here discuss this process with reference to a case study in Provence, examining the methodology and data requirements for modeling past agriculture using LPJmL and considering the implications of the range of variability in potential agricultural productivity under distinct climate conditions. We focus particularly on comparing the range of variability induced by climatic shifts with that achievable through changes in agricultural practices as a means of approaching questions of past vulnerability and resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract With climate change and the over-exploitation of fossil fuels, the advantages of using bioenergy are becoming increasingly obvious and many countries and regions around the world are committed to building biogas plants to produce clean energy. This article examines Henan Province, which features agricultural production and biogas projects typical of China. The aim was to identify the problems associated with the use of current agricultural waste in biogas production and provide suggestions for future biogas developments via comparisons of the potential of agricultural wastes with biogas project construction. Straw and manure volumes were analyzed by using crop yields and livestock production to calculate the biogas potential and the status quo was reflected through biogas project data. Subsequently, biogas potential and projects were analyzed from quantitative and spatial perspectives and a benefit evaluation was conducted. The results indicate that Henan Province has abundant straw and manure resources with large biogas potential, and that making good use of these wastes would have a good emission reduction effect and economic advantages, but there are presently large differences between the actual production and biogas potential. This paper analyzes the possible causes of this discrepancy, including resource utilization and biogas project operations. Lastly, countermeasures were proposed, such as developing matching technologies, improving relevant policies, and improving ecological-economic benefits to enhance future biogas project development. Graphical abstract fx1 Highlights • We choose Henan Province which is typical of agriculture and biogas industries. • Straw and manure volume are used to calculate biogas potential. • There is a significant difference between biogas potential and actual production. • Resource use and biogas project management issues cause these inconsistencies. • Technology, policy, and ecological-economic countermeasures are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Ecophysiological models are widely used to forecast potential impacts of climate change on future agricultural productivity and to examine options for adaptation by local stakeholders and policy makers. However, protocols followed in such assessments vary to such an extent that they constrain cross-study syntheses and increase the potential for bias in projected impacts. We reviewed 221 peer-reviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems. Six subject areas were examined: target crops and regions; the crop model(s) used and their characteristics; sources and application of data on [CO2] and climate; impact parameters evaluated; assessment of variability or risk; and adaptation strategies. Wheat, maize, soybean and rice were considered in approximately 170 papers. The USA (55 papers) and Europe (64 papers) were the dominant regions studied. The most frequent approach used to simulate response to CO2 involved adjusting daily radiation use efficiency (RUE) and transpiration, precluding consideration of the interacting effects of CO2, stomatal conductance and canopy temperature, which are expected to exacerbate effects of global warming. The assumed baseline [CO2] typically corresponded to conditions 10–30 years earlier than the date the paper was accepted, exaggerating the relative impacts of increased [CO2]. Due in part to the diverse scenarios for increases in greenhouse gas emissions, assumed future [CO2] also varied greatly, further complicating comparisons among studies. Papers considering adaptation predominantly examined changes in planting dates and cultivars; only 20 papers tested different tillage practices or crop rotations. Risk was quantified in over half the papers, mainly in relation to variability in yield or effects of water deficits, but the limited consideration of other factors affecting risk beside climate change per se suggests that impacts of climate change were overestimated relative to background variability. A coordinated crop, climate and soil data resource would allow researchers to focus on underlying science. More extensive model intercomparison, facilitated by modular software, should strengthen the biological realism of predictions and clarify the limits of our ability to forecast agricultural impacts of climate change on crop production and associated food security as well as to evaluate potential for adaptation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Shading and insect-proof screens are widely used in agriculture for passive microclimate control and for insect exclusion. It is an efficient tool for crop production in adverse climatic and environmental condition. As screens are made of a porous material, the protected environment usually interacts with the outside and hence screens provide only moderate microclimatic modifications. Nevertheless, such modifications might be crucial for certain horticultural processes, thus may strongly influence production and quality. Depending on the type of screen, structure configuration, crop and climatic region, recent studies have shown that compared to open field conditions, screens reduce solar radiation and air velocity by about 15–39% and 50–87%, respectively; increase air relative humidity by 2–21%; decrease air temperature and evapotranspiration by 2.3–2.5 °C and 17.4–50% respectively. This paper seeks to review recent advances regarding effects of such screens on microclimate, crop water use and production. Therefore, the ultimate objective of this review is to assist both researchers and growers. For researchers the review provides up-to-date information of the recent studies as well as knowledge gaps that call for future research. For growers and extension service experts this review would assist in choosing the appropriate screen for a specific application, based on the current knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate variability and insufficient irrigation are primary constraints to stable and higher agricultural productivity and food security in Nepal. Agriculture is the largest global freshwater user, and integration of surface- and ground-water use is frequently presented as an strategy for increasing efficiency as well as climate change adaptation. However, conjunctive management (CM) planning often ignores demand-side requirements and a broader set of sustainable development considerations, including ecosystem health and economics of different development strategies. While there is generic understanding of conjunctive use, detailed technical knowhow to realize the CM is lacking in Nepal. This article presents a holistic framework through literature reviews, stakeholders consultations and expert interviews for assessing CM and implementation prospects from a systems-level perspective. We demonstrate the framework through a case study in Western Nepal, where climatic variability and a lack of irrigation are key impediments to increased agricultural productivity and sustainable development. Results show that knowledge of water resources availability is good and that of water demand low in the Western Terai. Additional and coordinated investments are required to improve knowledge gaps as well as access to irrigation. There is therefore a need to assess water resources availability, water access, use and productivity, to fill the knowledge gaps in order to pave pathways for CM. This paper also discusses some strategies to translate prospects of conjunctive management into implementation. • Customized framework development for assessing prospects for conjunctive management. • Conjunctive management status in western Nepal assessed by applying the framework. • Knowledge on water availability and demand are moderate and low, respectively. • Additional and coordinated investments required to improve access to irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• How the circular economy framework can manifest in agricultural systems is analysed. • A novel definition for circular agriculture production systems is provided. • The scope of circularity indicators with application in agriculture is evaluated. • The challenges of adopting circular economy models in agriculture is discussed. • Future lines of research and institutional changes are provided. In the current context of resource scarcity, global climate change, environmental degradation, and increasing food demand, the circular economy (CE) represents a promising strategy for supporting sustainable, restorative, and regenerative agriculture. A review of the literature on CE confirms the initial hypothesis that the theoretical CE framework has not yet been adapted to the field of agriculture. Therefore, this paper overcomes this gap in two ways: i) by adjusting the general CE framework to the agricultural sector's specificities, and ii) by analyzing the scope of the indicators available for measuring agricultural production systems' circularity performance in supporting decision-making processes. Accordingly, the different elements in the theoretical CE framework are adapted to agricultural production systems. One major contribution of this paper is the definition of CE applied to agriculture. In addition, the principles of CE are adapted to the field, and CE strategies for agricultural activity are defined. Forty-one circularity indicators for application in agricultural systems were also comprehensively assessed to determine their strengths and weaknesses. Building on the key findings, future research paths and changes at the institutional and normative levels are proposed to facilitate CE implementation in agricultural production systems. For example, internationally recognized standards and adequate units of measurement must be defined, to develop meaningful studies and determine agricultural activities' circularity performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an ex-ante assessment of the impacts of climate and price variability on household income and food security in Ethiopia and Ghana. The study applies an agent-based modelling approach to highlight the role of coping and adaptation strategies under climate and price variability. Our simulation results show that climate and price variability adversely affects income and food security of households in both countries. Self-coping mechanisms are found to be important but insufficient to mitigate the adverse effects of variability, implying the need for policy interventions. Adaptation strategies composed of a portfolio of actions such as the provision of production credit and access to improved seeds are found to be effective in reducing the impacts of climate and price variability in Ethiopia. Similarly, policy interventions aimed at improving the provision of short-term production credit along with the existing irrigation facilities are important in Ghana. Finally, this study highlights the importance of capturing the distributional aspects of adaptation options by highlighting heterogeneous effects of variability and adaptation options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tea plays a pivotal role in India’s national economy, with the state of Assam the world’s largest regional producer of black tea. However, various socio-environmental factors are threatening tea production and the livelihoods of millions of people reliant upon the industry. Little documentation exists which provides comprehensive spatial insights into tea production practices and associated livelihoods. Additionally, vulnerability from climate change to those livelihoods dependent upon the tea landscape has received limited multi-level stakeholder qualification. Consequently, this paper goes towards addressing this knowledge deficit through adopting a sustainable livelihoods approach for investigating the tea landscape of Assam. Mixed social survey methods were used to document responses from multiple stakeholder groups representing managers of commercial plantations, smallholders and tea workers. Results provide a comprehensive insight into the livelihoods of those reliant upon tea production activities across the four major tea growing regions of Assam. Outputs indicate that varying production practices are in place to optimise yield, increase livelihood resilience and manage the landscape effectively under a changing climate, with tea workers possessing varying diversity in assets to support their livelihoods. Outcomes from this research highlight the need for adaptable and climate-smart landscape activities, with active support from expert tea advisory agencies, to promote long-term socio-environmental sustainable cultivation of tea under changing climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates how the topological features of the virtual water (VW) network and the size of the associated VW flows are likely to change over time, under different socio-economic and climate scenarios. We combine two alternative models of network formation –a stochastic and a fitness model, used to describe the structure of VW flows- with a gravity model of trade to predict the intensity of each bilateral flow. This combined approach is superior to existing methodologies in its ability to replicate the observed features of VW trade. The insights from the models are used to forecast future VW flows in 2020 and 2050, under different climatic scenarios, and compare them with future water availability. Results suggest that the current trend of VW exports is not sustainable for all countries. Moreover, our approach highlights that some VW importers might be exposed to “imported water stress” as they rely heavily on imports from countries whose water use is unsustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural productivity depends critically on investments in research and development (R&D), but there is a long lag in this response. Failing to invest today in improvements of agricultural productivity cannot be simply corrected a few decades later if the world finds itself short of food at that point in time. This fundamental irreversibility is particularly problematic in light of uncertain future population, income, and climate change, as portrayed in the IPCC’s Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). This paper finds the optimal path of agricultural R&D spending over the 21st century for each SSP, along with valuation of those regrets associated with investment decisions later revealed to be in error. The maximum regret is minimized to find a robust optimal R&D pathway that factors in key uncertainties and the lag in productivity response to R&D. Results indicate that the whole of uncertainty’s impact on R&D is greater than the sum of its individual parts. Uncertainty in future population has the dominant impact on the optimal R&D expenditure path. The robust solution suggests that the optimal R&D spending strategy is very close to the one that will increase agricultural productivity fast enough to feed the World under the most populous scenario. It also suggests that society should accelerate R&D spending up to mid-century, thereafter moderating this growth rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many have suggested that a new form of sustainable agricultural productivism is needed in response to the challenges to food security posed by climate change and population growth. This paper employs elements of ecological modernisation theory and focusses on sustainability challenges and solutions, as well as the knowledge networks and production rationale to assess whether the intensive horticultural industry located in the Spanish province of Almería represents sustainable productivism. The Almerían horticultural industry, lauded as an example of neo-endogenous growth, manifests a range of sustainable technologies addressing environmental impacts. Yet, we argue that Almerían horticulture represents ‘weak ecological modernisation’ and its main sustainability challenges are posed by water scarcity, a demand led production rationale and the precarious situation of family farms that at present provide a degree of economic embeddedness in this highly industrialised production model. A competitive imperative yields marketing organisations huge sway in production decision-making, and while a cost-price squeeze has driven efficiency in the use of farm inputs and product innovation, it has paradoxically made further advances in sustainable water management very difficult to achieve. Transforming the Almerían horticultural industry into a truly sustainable model of productivism would require the concerted efforts of individual farmers and marketing organisations as well as regional and local water governance institutions and land use planning. A significant obstacle to this remains the dominant normative perception that justifies groundwater abstraction on the grounds of its high economic returns and the perceived inability of small farmers to invest in desalinated water or further technological solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A wide range of insects affect crop production and cause considerable yield losses. Difficulties reside on the development and adaptation of adequate strategies to predict insect pests for their timely management to ensure enhanced agricultural production. Several conceptual modelling frameworks have been proposed, and the choice of an approach depends largely on the objective of the model and the availability of data. This paper presents a summary of decades of advances in insect population dynamics, phenology models, distribution and risk mapping. Existing challenges on the modelling of insects are listed; followed by innovations in the field. New approaches include artificial neural networks, cellular automata (CA) coupled with fuzzy logic (FL), fractal, multi-fractal, percolation, synchronization and individual/agent-based approaches. A concept for assessing climate change impacts and providing adaptation options for agricultural pest management independently of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios is suggested. A framework for estimating losses and optimizing yields within crop production system is proposed and a summary on modelling the economic impact of pests control is presented. The assessment shows that the majority of known insect modelling approaches are not holistic; they only concentrate on a single component of the system, i.e. the pest, rather than the whole crop production system. We suggest system thinking as a possible approach for linking crop, pest, and environmental conditions to provide a more comprehensive assessment of agricultural crop production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper draws on the example of Tyumen Province, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, to explore the role that policies play in hindering agricultural producers’ adaptation to climate change. Its objective is to contribute to a better understanding of maladaptation at the policy level. The discourse analysis method is used to explain perceptions of climate variability in Tyumen Province and its impact on agriculture. The document analysis method is used to assess agricultural policy in Tyumen Province and its implications for producers’ adaptation to climate change. The results suggest that although agricultural producers and policymakers are acutely aware both of climate variability and the resulting loss of agricultural output, provincial agricultural policy generally fails to encourage better adaptation by agricultural producers or to support their greater economic security. Instead, it primarily focuses on meeting food production targets and thus limits the producers’ own independent moves towards adaptation. The phenomenon of maladaptation at the policy level is discussed in consideration of the general public’s and the authorities’ awareness of climate change and climate variability, and the role of science in shaping this awareness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forty seven percent of the population of Pakistan is food insecure, access to food is uneven and malnutrition is widespread. In addition, food production depends greatly on irrigation, including the use of substantial volumes of water from already stressed aquifers. Our aim in this paper is to examine the implications of continued population growth on the required production of food and the implied water demand. We examine the historical trends of crop production, water use, food availability and population growth in Pakistan, and project them forward to 2050. Food availability has improved over recent decades, mostly as a result of increasing the area and water use of crops and fodder, and partly as a result of importing more pulses and cooking oils. We show that a continuation of current trends leads to nearly a doubling of the (already unsustainable) groundwater use. There is uncertainty in the magnitude of climate change impacts, but climate change may further exacerbate matters. To avoid further increases of groundwater use, some combination would be required of: more dams and other irrigation infrastructure; increasing crop yields (particularly yields per unit volume of water) at a greater rate than in the past; a change in crop mix away from high water use crops like rice and sugarcane, to crops that use less water; and, exporting less and importing more food. The alternatives appear difficult to implement quickly, so it appears likely that in the short to medium term more groundwater will be consumed, with attendant problems of water quality and sustainability. Our analysis provides new perspectives on past trends and future food and water (including groundwater) challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an investigation of various adaptations of rice based cropping systems to climate variability in India's Telangana State. All adaptations were generated through participatory engagement and were field-tested with local smallholder households before being evaluated through cropping system simulation analysis. This approach contrasts with most research about adaptation of cropping systems to climate variability and climate change that is mostly based on simplifying assumptions about current farmer management practices and where the feasibility of implementing proposed adaptations is rarely tested. In this study, the investigation commenced with discussions about climate related issues in rice based farming systems between researchers, farmers and NGOs in three villages in three Mandals of the state of Telangana. Participatory intervention was used to identify new practices that could provide more adaptive and robust responses to climate variability. Suggested adaptations were implemented in on-farm experimentation. Fields demonstrating these adaptations were monitored and results were discussed with participating farmers at regular ‘Climate Club’ village meetings. Crop and soil data from these fields were used to locally parameterise the cropping systems simulator APSIM. Local adaptations that were trialled in the villages were simulated using local soil and long term historical weather data. In each of the case studies, a number of adaptations that were developed and implemented in the villages were shown through simulation to be successful in terms of agricultural production, stability of yields and resource use efficiency. Of the adaptations investigated, sowing rules to reduce the chance of crop failure due to early dry spells were most readily adopted and are also relatively easy to extend to other villages. Strategic irrigation of rainfed crops such as maize and cotton resulted in significant gains to profitability and stability of these crops but cannot be considered in isolation where access to water is limited. Reduced irrigation of rice resulted in over 60 mm/ha/yr. savings in water and some improvements in gross margins but this adaptation was not popular with farmers due to its burden on labour and added risks associated with unreliable supply of electricity for pumping at critical times. The reduced rice area for strategic irrigation of rainfed crops adaptation resulted in improved gross margins per hectare per year and higher net water productivity. This adaptation is most promising but will require institutional change around water use policy and more equitable allocation of limited water resources within villages. These results led us to the proposition that participatory action research with smallholder farmers, coupled with field-testing and simulation analysis can produce practical and productive adaptations to climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production, particularly in Iran where the agricultural sector forms the backbone of the economy. This is true for the agriculture sector of the southwest region of Iran which is largely rain-fed and dominated by smallholder farmers with minimal livelihood alternatives. Although several studies have been conducted on climate change, little has been done on the adaptive capacity of farmers within farming systems, especially in Iran. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the adaptive capacity of four common farming systems (i.e., family farming system, cooperative farming system, commercialized farming system, and agro-enterprise farming system) in Fars province, southwestern Iran. A seven-step approach was used to normalize, weigh, and aggregate 102 individual indicators within a composite adaptive capacity index that is dimensionless, ranging from 0 to 1, and 1 is the optimal value. The required data were collected using a cross-sectional survey from 1472 farmers within the four mentioned farming systems. The results showed that the highest value was recorded by agro-enterprise for knowledge, perception and awareness, transport and physical accessibility, and institution and economic resources. Agro-enterprise scored higher in terms of awareness and action, which shows that these farming systems have a higher capacity for adaptation to the threat posed by climate diversity. Farmers in this farming system benefit from high formal education, high perceptions about the threat and risk of climate change, the occurrence of climatic events, causes for the change in climatic parameters, and awareness of climate change impacts. This paper recommends resilience-building interventions in the study area, which target individuals with low adaptive capacities, especially farmers. The results can also assist agricultural policymakers to recognize which components and determinants of adaptive capacity should be prioritized to mitigate the threat of climate change to farming systems. [Display omitted] • This study aimed to investigate the adaptive capacity of common agricultural systems • Climate change has a negative impact on Iran's agricultural production systems • The results showed that farmers at agro-enterprises have a well awareness of climate change adaptation • It is essential to obtain information about potential, effective, and cost-effective adaptation options [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key narrative within climate change science is that conserving and improving soil carbon through agricultural practices can contribute to agricultural productivity and is a promising option for mitigating carbon loss through sequestration. This paper examines the potential disconnect between science and practice in the context of communicating information about soil carbon management. It focuses on the information producing process and on stakeholder (adviser, farmer representative, policy maker etc) assessment of the attributes credibility, salience and legitimacy. In doing this it draws on results from consultations with stakeholders in the SmartSOIL project which aimed to provide decision support guidelines about practices that optimise carbon mitigation and crop productivity. An iterative methodology, used to engage stakeholders in developing, testing and validating a range of decision support guidelines in six case study regions across Europe, is described. This process enhanced legitimacy and revealed the importance, and the different dimensions, of stakeholder views on credibility and salience. The results also highlight the complexities and contested nature of managing soil carbon. Some insights are gained into how to achieve more effective communication about soil carbon management, including the need to provide opportunities in projects and research programmes for dialogue to engender better understanding between science and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary As countries experience economic growth and choose among available development pathways, they are in a favorable position to adopt natural resource use technologies and production practices that favor efficient use of inputs, healthy soils, and ecosystems. Current emphasis on increasing resilience to climate change and reducing agricultural greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions strengthens the support for sustainable agricultural production. In fact, reducing losses in soil fertility, reclaiming degraded lands, and promoting synergistic interaction between crop production and forests are generally seen as good climate change policies. In order for decision-makers to develop long-term policies that address these issues, they must have tools at their disposal that evaluate trade-offs, opportunities, and repercussions of the options considered. In this paper, the authors combine and reconcile the output of three models widely accessible to the public to analyze the impacts of policies that target emission reduction in the agricultural sector. We present an application to Colombia which reveals the importance of considering the full scope of interactions among the various land uses. Results indicate that investments in increasing the efficiency and productivity of the livestock sector and reducing land allocated to pasture are preferable to policies that target deforestation alone or target a reduction of emissions in crop production. Investments in livestock productivity and land-carrying capacity would reduce deforestation and provide sufficient gains in carbon stock to offset greater emissions from increased crop production while generating higher revenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at assess district-wise vulnerability index of the state of Karnataka State, which is predominantly is rainfed and is highly susceptible to climatic variability. Secondary data on relevant indicators were collected to prepare indices viz., crop production losses, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Following normalization and using appropriate weights for indicators, these four indices were used for constructing vulnerability index, which can be used a rapid assessment method for prioritizing districts that need measures to moderate the detrimental impact of climate change. It has been observed that Climatic variability caused higher production losses in cereals, pulses and oilseeds in Davangere, Gulbarga and Raichur districts, respectively. Districts like Koppal, Raichur, Bijapur Gulbarga, Gadag, Bagalkote and Bellary were placed under extreme degree of exposure. As per the sensitivity index scores, Kolar district is the most sensitive. Further, Bengaluru (Urban), Dakshin Kannada and Kodagu are ranked first, second and third in terms of adaptive capacity in the state. Overall, vulnerability index scores indicate that Gulbarga, Koppal, Raichur, Bellary, Bagalkote, Bijapur and Belgaum are extremely vulnerable districts in the state. It was also estimated that around 70% of the cultivated area, which supports 60% and 67% of livestock and rural population of the state, respectively are facing ‘extreme to high’ level of vulnerability. The ranking based prioritization of the vulnerable areas calls for a holistic approach for each district or a group of districts to reduce their sensitivity, minimize exposure to rainfall variability through implementation of site-specific and leverage adaptive capacity through better health and education facilities, expansion of employment opportunities in other sectors or reducing over dependence on agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of climate variability on schooling outcomes in rural Ethiopia. Investments in education serve as an important pathway out of poverty, yet reduced agricultural productivity due to droughts or temperature shocks may affect educational attainment if children receive poorer nutrition during early childhood, are required to participate in household income generation during schooling ages, or if households can no longer pay for school-related expenses. We link longitudinal socioeconomic, demographic, and schooling data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey to high-resolution gridded climate data to measure exposure to temperature and precipitation relative to historical norms. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to understand how climate variability impacts grade attainment and school enrollment. Results indicate that early life climatic conditions – namely milder temperatures during all seasons and greater rainfall during the summer agricultural season – are associated with an increased likelihood of a child having completed any education. In addition, greater summer rainfall during both early life and school ages is associated with having completed any schooling as well as with attending school at the time of the survey. These findings suggest that future climate change may reduce children’s school participation in rural Sub-Saharan Africa, slowing progress toward human development goals and poverty alleviation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing demands for food security to feed increasing populations worldwide have intensified the search for improved performance of irrigation, the world’s largest water user. These challenges are raised in the face of climate variability and from growing environmental demands. Adaptation measures in irrigated agriculture include fallowing land, shifting cropping patterns, increased groundwater pumping, reservoir storage capacity expansion, and increased production of risk-averse crops. Water users in the Gila Basin headwaters of the U.S. Lower Colorado Basin have faced a long history of high water supply fluctuations producing low-valued defensive cropping patterns. To date, little research grade analysis has investigated economically viable measures for irrigation development to adjust to variable climate. This gap has made it hard to inform water resource policy decisions on workable measures to adapt to climate in the world’s dry rural areas. This paper’s contribution is to illustrate, formulate, develop, and apply a new methodology to examine the economic performance from irrigation capacity improvements in the Gila Basin of the American Southwest. An integrated empirical optimization model using mathematical programming is developed to forecast cropping patterns and farm income under two scenarios (1) status quo without added storage capacity and (2) with added storage capacity in which existing barriers to development of higher valued crops are dissolved. We find that storage capacity development can lead to a higher valued portfolio of irrigation production systems as well as more sustained and higher valued farm livelihoods. Results show that compared to scenario (1), scenario (2) increases regional farm income by 30%, in which some sub regions secure income gains exceeding 900% compared to base levels. Additional storage is most economically productive when institutional and technical constraints facing irrigated agriculture are dissolved. Along with additional storage, removal of constraints on weak transportation capacity, limited production scale, poor information access, weak risk-bearing capacity, limited management skills, scarce labor supply, low food processing capacity, and absolute scale constraints, all can raise the economic value of additional irrigation capacity development. Our results light a path forward to policy makers, water administrators, and farm managers, who bear the burden of protecting farm income, food and water security, and rural economic development in the world’s dry regions faced by the need to adapt to climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop a spatio-temporal model to estimate climate change effects on crop yield. • Accounting for spatial spillover amplifies the effect of wet days for millet in SSA. • Accounting for temporal spillover reduces the effect of wet days for millet in SSA. • Local yield levels are affected by the millet yield in neighboring regions. • The effect of temperature on millet yield differs between poor and rich countries. This paper reports estimates of the economic impact of changes in weather variables on sub-Saharan African pearl millet yield based on panel data for 1970–2016. We control for spatial effects in all the components of our exposure–response function, plus a lag in time of the covariates through spatio-temporal econometrics techniques. Our results indicate own-location weather variables have significant contemporaneous impacts on millet yield. Specifically, we find that vapor pressure deficit, wet day frequency and temperature are important determinants of millet yield. In addition, accounting for spatial and temporal spillovers exacerbates and attenuates wet day cumulative effect, respectively, and local crop production is affected by neighboring countries' production. The results are robust to several sensitivity checks, including accounting for adaptation using long-term averages, and are consistent across country-income groups. We also use our estimates to forecast how crop production would respond to climate change in the mid-future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several studies have recognized that the agriculture sector is one of the major contributor to climate change, as well as largely affected adversely by climate change. Agricultural productivity is known to be sensitive to climate change induced effects and it has impact on livelihood of families linked with farming. Thus it is important to understand what are the existing coping strategies that farmer deploy in case of climate shocks like flood and drought and who is involved in making decision relating to these coping strategies. This paper uses the household level data of 641 households from 12 randomly selected villages in Vaishali district of Bihar to understand the household coping mechanisms with emphasis on role of gender. This study has moved away from the conventional division of households by male and female-headed households and thus capturing the intra-household gender dynamics by understanding the role of men and women within the household as decision makers of the coping strategy to manage climate shock. The study uses a multivariate probit model and the results suggest that there is a higher probability that the male farmers will make the decision on choice of the coping strategy. The most prominent coping mechanism is to find alternative employment in urban locations; however, when consumption levels have to be reduced because of climate shock, all family members then contribute to the decision-making process collectively. The results show that exposure to agriculture extension and training programs have a positive influence on choosing appropriate coping mechanisms, but female farmers have poor access to these resources. These policies should look into providing outreach to both male and female farmers in any given locality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development or expansion of existing land use, agricultural industries are seen a way to manage global food security in the face climate change and reduced water availability in the traditional cropping regions. This paper examines economic and policy implications of incremental and transformational changes in production location by considering the net effects of shifting rice production from a southern area to the sugar dominated Burdekin area in northern Queensland, using a dynamic regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Three rice transformational adaptation scenarios at two time points, 2030 and 2070, were considered. The results suggest a net reduction in real economic output and real income, although adopting a rice-sugarcane rotation in Burdekin could partly offset some of the negative impact. The displacement of sugar would result in a much larger net national loss and consequent net reduction in gross regional product (GRP). The study findings suggest that there is unlikely to be a rapid and spontaneous increase in rice production in the north, because of a lack of infrastructure, wariness in relation to the agronomic issues, the lower profits and the opportunity cost of turning away from sugar. Currently private investment in infrastructure can keep pace with the level of production, but a more rapid expansion would need access to government assistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the negative effects of invasive alien species (IAS) as it will foster their further spread. This paper analyses the potential socio-economic effects of three emerging IAS (giant ragweed, Ambrosia trifida ; annual wormwood, Artemisia annua ; and burweed marshelder, Iva xanthiifolia ), which are known to cause substantial harm to human health and to have negative effects on agricultural production. The novelty of the study consists in an integrated approach that combines several aspects of IAS research and management. We model the future spread of the study species in Central Europe by the year 2050 under several climate change, management and spread scenarios. The costs and benefits of controlling the expansion of these IAS are based on this forecast. The results show that an early and coordinated response to the spread of these IAS yields substantial net benefits under all scenarios. Under the conditions of moderate climate change (+1.5 °C), discounted net benefits range from €19 to €582 million. Assuming more severe climate change (+2.4 °C), total savings over the full period are projected to add up to €1063 million. These large socio-economic benefits provide compelling evidence that public authorities should act preventively to restrict the spread of these three IAS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to affect both the amount of global crop production, and annual variability in food supply. Agriculture is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, but also considered to mitigate climate change. Conservation tillage, as a climate-smart agricultural practice, is repeatedly reported to mitigate net greenhouse gas emissions by increasing soil organic carbon (SOC). However, with reduced tillage, less litter is moved from the surface deeper into the soil profile, so SOC increase is very likely constrained to topsoil layers. Further adaptation benefits, such as increasing crop yield and resilience to famine, have recently been questioned after averaging yields from field studies. However, such global averaging masks the geographic extent individual studies apply to. This paper attempts a holistic regional analysis on the benefits of conservation tillage, in particular its fundamental principle no-tillage (NT), on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Based on a review of almost 20 years of conservation tillage plot experiments, the potential of NT to increase SOC stocks and to adapt to lower but more variable rainfall in the future has been assessed. The results show that the difference of total SOC stocks between NT and CT decreased with soil depth, confirming that the SOC benefits of NT are concentrated to the immediate topsoil still subject to direct seeding. The topsoil achieved maximum SOC stocks after about 10 years of NT. Crop yields from NT increased by up to 20% for years with average and below average precipitation, demonstrating the advantages of NT in stabilizing crop yields in dry years. However, the results in previous reports are not weighted by the actual spatial extent of drylands and humid regions after counting individual plot studies. As a consequence of such global and unweighted averaging, the benefits from NT to increase SOC stocks are likely to misrepresent the actual impact. Therefore, given the size of the Loess Plateau and its relevance for food security in China, our analysis illustrates the need to assess the benefits of a tillage and residue management system for each combination of eco-region and farming practice, weighted by their area and the affected population, rather than just using a global average for policy development on sustainable productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fontanile is a Po Valley (Italy) quasi-natural lowland spring built in the middle age. This paper identifies options for the conservation of the Fontanile water dependent ecosystem, using scenarios and simulations, and exploring different policy options. Three modeling analysis have been performed: the first was carried out for estimating groundwater contamination and recharge from above, the second for evaluating the function of vegetative filter strip on the surface water quality and the last one for testing pesticide drift reduction due to the vegetative filter strip. Uncertainty characterization included climate change projections. Despite the nitrate concentration in water could favorite the eutrophication phenomena, this not occurs because of the low phosphate concentration in water and of the presence of arboreal shade. Therefore, the protection strategies must focus on sustaining desirable water quantity conditions. Water saving and conservation technologies that improve the agricultural productivity but reduce the Fontanile water flow and large buffer strips that have a limited efficacy due to the Fontanile hydrological settings can be judged as ecological traps. Inefficient irrigation systems, good agricultural practices, integrated pest management and arboreal filter strip can preserve the quality of those ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Favorable climate and soils for rainfed crop production, together with a relatively low population density, results in 70–90% of Argentina grain production being exported. No assessment to date has tried to estimate the potential for extra grain production for soybean, wheat and maize, which account for 78% of total harvested area, by yield gap closure on existing cropland area and its impact at a global scale. The objectives of this paper are (i) to estimate how much additional grain could be produced without expanding crop area by closing yield gaps in Argentina, (ii) to investigate how this production and yield gaps varies across regions and years, and (iii) to analyze how these inter-annual variations are related to El Niño—Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO). Production increase on existing crop area was assessed for soybean, wheat and maize by quantifying the yield gap (Yg), that is, the difference between water-limited yield potential (Yw) and actual yield (Ya). A bottom-up approach was followed to estimate Yw and Yg, in which these parameters were first estimated for specific locations in major crop producing areas and subsequently up-scaled to country level based on spatial distribution of crop area and climate zones. Locally-calibrated crop simulation models were used to estimate Yw at each selected location based on long-term weather data and dominant soil types and management practices. For the analyzed period, the national level Yg represented 41% of Yw for both wheat and maize and 32% of the Yw for soybean. If farmers had closed Yg from these levels to 20% of Yw, Argentina could have increased soybean, wheat and maize production by a respective 7.4, 5.2, and 9.2 Mt, without expanding cropland area. This additional production would have represented an increase of 9%, 4%, and 9% of soybean, wheat, and maize global exports. This potential grain surplus was, however, highly variable because of the ENSO phenomenon: attainable soybean production was 12 Mt higher in favorable “El Niño” years compared with unfavorable “La Niña” years. Interestingly, Yg tended to be higher in wet years, suggesting that farmers do not take full advantage of years with favorable conditions for rainfed crop production. Regional variation in Yg was found in Argentina highlighting the usefulness of this work as a framework to target research and, ultimately, reduce gaps in areas where current yields are well below their potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potentially devastating impacts of climate change on crop production and food security are now widely acknowledged. An important component of efforts to mitigate these impacts is the production of new varieties of crops which will be able to thrive in more extreme and changeable environmental conditions. There is therefore an urgent need to find new sources of genetic diversity for crop improvement. Wild plant species closely related to crops (crop wild relatives) contain vital sources of such genes, yet these resources themselves are threatened by the effects of climate change, as well as by a range of other human-induced pressures and socio-economic changes. The flora of China comprises more than 20,000 native higher plant species, a proportion of which have known or potential value as gene donors for crop improvement. However, until now, the full range of these valuable crop wild relative species had not been identified. In this paper we present a methodology for creating a checklist of, and prioritizing China’s crop wild relatives, and reveal that 871 native species are related to crops that are of particularly high socio-economic importance in China—including rice, wheat, soybean, potato, sweet potato, millet and yam—crops which are also of notably high value for food and economic security in other parts of the world. Within this list we have identified species that are in particular need of conservation assessment based on their relative Red List status and potential for use in crop improvement programs. Endemic species that have particularly high economic value potential in China and that are under severe threat of genetic erosion and thus in need of urgent conservation action include wild relatives of tea ( Camellia fangchengensis S. Yun Liang et Y.C. Zhong and C. grandibracteata H.T. Chang et F.L. Yu), apple ( e.g ., Malus honanensis Rehder, M. ombrophila Hand.-Mazz. and M. toringoides (Rehder) Hughes), and pear ( Pyrus pseudopashia T.T. Yu). We provide recommendations for developing a systematic and comprehensive national CWR conservation strategy for China, highlighting the challenges and requirements of taking the strategy forward to the implementation phase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past decade, the application of agricultural production systems modelling has rapidly expanded while there has been less emphasis on model improvement. Cropping systems modelling has become agricultural modelling, incorporating new capabilities enabling analyses in the domains of greenhouse gas emissions, soil carbon changes, ecosystem services, environmental performance, food security, pests and disease losses, livestock and pasture production, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. New science has been added to the models to support this broadening application domain, and new consortia of modellers have been formed that span the multiple disciplines. There has not, however, been a significant and sustained focus on software platforms to increase efficiency in agricultural production systems research in the interaction between the software industry and the agricultural modelling community. This paper describes the changing agricultural modelling landscape since 2002, largely from a software perspective, and makes a case for a focussed effort on the software implementations of the major models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust understanding of possible trade-offs and synergies between climate change, energy and water sector policies is critical to achieving economically viable and environmentally sound agricultural production systems in a low-carbon water-constrained economy, in which greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are penalized and water savings rewarded. Accurate assessment of the potential costs/benefits of investment decisions can help to optimize the economic efficiency of agricultural production while minimizing environmental impacts. This paper presents a novel integrated framework, based on carbon and water accounting, which enables analysis of potential trade-offs between water savings, energy consumption, GHG emissions and economic costs/benefits associated with the adoption of new water efficient irrigation technologies. The framework was applied to an irrigated lucerne cropping system in eastern Australia and compares the costs/benefits of old roll-line sprinkler irrigation systems against new pressurized systems. Positive synergies were found with the adoption of the new technology, which saved both water and energy use, reduced total GHG emissions and resulted in net economic returns across a range of carbon prices. The results of this study provide support for an integrated evidence-based approach to policy development and strategic decision-making and for the prioritization of investments on both economic and environmental grounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]