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Reliable energy statistics serve as the foundation and starting point for understanding the climate policies of any country. As the most comprehensive sources of energy data for China, China Energy Statistics Yearbooks (ESY), published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), underwent three major revisions since 2005. This paper analyzes how these three major revisions correspond to data on China's energy use from 1996 to 2012, and theirs impacts on CO 2 emissions, emission intensity and the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption, which are key indicators of China's climate policies. Some notable changes include CO 2 emissions for 2012, which increased by 594 Million tons – a figure equivalent to South Korea's annual emissions, which implies that China's emissions at peak level will be higher than previous estimation. Meanwhile, revised emission intensity data show a higher amount and lower decreasing rate, which means that China's achievements in decreasing emission intensity during 2005–2012 have been overestimated, while future difficulties for achieving the goal of 40–45% reduction will be greater. On the share of non-fossil fuel energy in China's total energy mix, the adjustments increased the indicator by 1.26%, reflecting the fact that China's effort in developing non-fossil energy had been underestimated. Discrepancies in reported scattered coal in different statistics versions are the main contributors to these changes. To further enhance the reliability of its energy statistics, and thereby its climate policies, China should remove incentives for misreporting through legal means, and make the technical system for data collection more comprehensive and accurate, with particular emphasis on scattered coal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an approach to calculate the time series of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions between 1995 and 2014 based on industrial energy consumption data in three Eastern China jurisdictions in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang during these two decades. Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, the fluctuation components of the cumulative CO 2 -emission time-series data in the three provinces are obtained. Subsequently, a grey correlation-based change-point search algorithm is used to determine change-points in these data. Additionally, the CO 2 -emission time-series is divided into stages based on the change-points. The cycle characteristics of national energy policies, laws, and regulations are compared with those of the cumulative CO 2 -emission cycle of the three provinces to analyse the impact of energy policies on CO 2 emissions. This study shows that, although the industrial structure and trends in the CO 2 emission time-series data of the three provinces are different, their cumulative CO 2 -emission cycle remains the same from 1995 to 2014. The variation characteristics of the cumulative CO 2 emissions for each cycle during this period are well aligned with the stage characteristics of energy policies, laws, and regulations, indicating that energy policies play a consistent role in regulating such emissions. This study examines low-carbon production and sustainable energy development, and offers suggestions for issuing and perfecting energy policies, laws, and regulations, considering the indicators of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting CO 2 emissions in China always has been of great significance as it could help the government to improve energy policies and plans. To this end, a novel grey multivariable model is designed in this paper. Compared with the conventional grey multivariable model, which has certain drawbacks of inaccurate prediction and poor adaptability that restrict their applications in practical cases, the proposed model can make three improvements: first, an optimized grey model having a modified background value is proposed to predict the trends of the driving variables. Second, the novel grey multivariable model is established, combined with the changing trends of driving variables. Third, the adjustment coefficient in the new model is optimized to obtain optimal values for the time response function. To demonstrate its efficacy, the proposed model is employed to reproduce and predict the CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion compared with four benchmark models—the results show that the new model yields more accurate forecasting results than the competing models. Eventually, the new model will be used to quantify future Chinese CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion from 2014 to 2020, and the forecasted results can provide a solid basis for formulating environmental policies and energy consumption plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying a parameterized directional distance function approach, this paper estimates the regional total factor efficiency and pollutants’ marginal abatement costs (MACs) in China covering the years 2003–2012. We find that if all provinces produced on the production frontier, China could potentially conserve energy consumption by 29.5%, and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) by 28.2% and 27.4%, respectively. The provinces in southeast coastal area performed better than the rest of the country. The bulk of potentials for energy saving and pollution reduction appeared in middle Yellow River, northwest, north coast, and northeast areas. The MAC of CO 2 increased steadily and continuously, while that of SO 2 showed a sharp increase throughout the whole study period. The average MACs of CO 2 and SO 2 for the whole country were 5512 Yuan/tonne and 154,395 Yuan/tonne, respectively. The MACs of SO 2 in different areas were remarkably unbalanced. Our estimates suggest that the opportunities for double dividend of economic production and pollution reduction are potentially achievable. Policymakers are required to facilitate technology transfer and encourage scientific and technological cooperation between inter- and intra-area. Additionally, they should also consider the regional heterogeneity when making the reduction allocations within the economic sectors and make the market prices of pollutants flexible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and scenario analysis have been applied respectively to analyze the impact of CO 2 -emission and its potential reduction in China׳s power industry. According to the results of LMDI, there are six factors that affect the carbon emission in the power industry. Electricity intensity (EI), and economic activity (EA) are the primary driving factors for the increment in emissions, accounting for 42.33% and 57.05% of the total increment during 1985 to 2011. Results also demonstrated that energy efficiency (EE) contributed 13.54% abatement during 1985 to 2011, and will play a key role in emission abatement in the future. Furthermore, the paper estimate the trend of power sector׳s carbon dioxide emission under three scenarios (basic, moderate and optimum) in order to determine the mitigation potential. The potential mitigation rate will equal to 22.03% and 37.57% in 2020 in Case A and Case B respectively in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the changes in carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emission in China׳s cement industry over the period 1991–2010. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) was applied for the decomposition analysis. Five determinants were examined and the results divided into five time intervals, according to China׳s five-year economic plans. The results show that labor productivity was the major driving force of increase in CO 2 emission in China׳s cement industry, and energy intensity was the major contributor to CO 2 emission reduction. The other three factors also generated certain level of effects. This article provides some policy suggestions which could be adopted to reduce CO 2 emission in this energy-intensive industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid economic growth, China is facing tremendous pressures of emission–reduction and serious income inequality issues. The existing research is concerned with the relationships between income inequality and CO 2 emissions in recent years, but little attention has been paid to the regional differences in China. This paper investigated the impact of income and its inequality on CO 2 emissions at the national and regional levels using the panel data from 1995 to 2010 in China. The empirical results show that income growth increases China’s CO 2 emissions. The effects of income growth on CO 2 emissions vary across regions. Further, the impact of income inequality on CO 2 emissions in the Eastern region is greater than that in the Western region. This research reveals that a more equitable income distribution may help control CO 2 emissions in developing China, and there is a win–win situation of income redistribution and emission–reduction. Our findings merit particular attention from policy makers in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: At present, countries around the world set off a round of upsurge of exploitation and utilization of geothermal energy. As one of renewable energy resources, geothermal energy has the advantages of great resource potential, low carbon emissions, widespread distribution, easy development and so on. China׳s geothermal resources are enormous and have huge potential for exploitation. However, due to the lack of reasonable industry planning and policies support, and lag of technologies, the industrial development speed and scale are far behind the wind, solar and biomass energy. The 12th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People׳s Republic of China explicitly issues that in future China will vigorously develop the geothermal energy and provide more policy support for geothermal industry development from medium to longer term. This paper describes China׳s geothermal resource potential and status quo of geothermal industry, and analyzes the obstacles of the industry development. Then, it accordingly puts forward the development pattern of China׳s geothermal industry and gives out related countermeasures. At last, it outlines the prospects in this field. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper looks at carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the point of view of production theory and proposes a new total factor CO2 emissions performance index. This is done using directional distance function followed by stochastic frontier analysis techniques in order to estimate the index. Based on this, it studies on CO2 emission performance, emission reduction potential and influences of regulatory policies in Chinese provinces. The main conclusions include the following: (1) CO2 emission performance in each province is high in southeastern coastal areas but low in central and western inland regions with differences increasing rapidly after 2001. (2) The relationship between CO2 emission performance and emission reduction potential can be divided into four types; high performance-high potential, high performance-low potential, low performance-high potential and low performance-low potential. (3) Regulations concerning emission reduction do not sacrifice efficiency but actually facilitate long-term CO2 emission performance. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The residential sector is the second largest consumer in China with great room for energy consumption growth, as well as the related carbon emissions. Thus, how to reduce the growth rate of carbon emissions is crucial for realizing the target of energy conservation and emission mitigation in the residential sector. Based on a bottom-up framework with survey data and official statistics, this paper examines the changes of aggregate residential carbon intensity, and analyzes its driving factors from an end-use perspective over the period of 1996–2008. The Adaptive Weighting Divisia with rolling base year index specification is applied to identify the quantitative effects of driving components and their further decomposing results of end-use activities. Results show that, the residential aggregate carbon intensity has grown rapidly since 2002 in both urban and rural China. The changes in primary fuel mix for electricity and heat generation have an overall negative but insignificant effect on the residential aggregate carbon intensity, while the effect of final energy structure is positive with a rising tendency. The significant impact of changes in energy intensity shift from negative to positive over time, and contribute more to a decline than to an increase. The driving force arising from the residential end-use mode has the highest contribution to the increase of aggregate carbon intensity. Finally, some policy implications are proposed to effectively slow down the accelerated rate of the residential aggregate carbon intensity. Guiding households towards energy-saving behaviors is recommended as a wise and first policy choice. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Understanding China’s GHG (greenhouse gas) emission status is critical for achieving the national mitigation plan. While much attention has addressed China’s national level GHG emission, less is known about its regional and sectoral emission features. In this paper China’s regional and sectoral GHG emission patterns and their driving forces were explored by using upgraded energy consumption data. We constructed a detailed GHG inventory for each province in the year 2009 which covering 28 sectors and further expanded time-serious inventories during 1997–2009. We then conducted variation and index decomposition analysis to explore its sectoral/regional disparity and features. Results showed significant differences of sectoral emission intensity among different provinces, implying a huge disparity of technology level. Since less developed provinces still apply energy intensive technologies, they had contributed to most of national emission increment during 1997–2009 and made the whole country towards carbon intensive direction. Our research outcomes indicate that the inequity of technology level among regions has already become a main barrier for China’s CO2 mitigation. Such a reality deserves more attention from both researchers and policy makers so that appropriate carbon reduction policies can be raised. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The better to explore the regional characteristics of inter-provincial CO2 emissions and the rational distribution of the reduction of emission intensity reduction in China, this paper proposes an improved PSO-FCM clustering algorithm. This method can obtain the optimal cluster number and membership grade values by utilizing the global capacity of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) on Fuzzy C-means (FCM). The clustering results of CO2 emissions indicate that the 30 provinces of China are divided into five clusters and each has its own significant characteristics. Compared with other clustering methods, the results of PSO-FCM are more explanatory. The most important indicators affecting regional emission characteristics are CO2 emission intensity and per capita emissions, whereas CO2 emission per unit of energy is not obvious in clustering. Furthermore, some policy recommendations on setting emission reduction targets according to the emission characteristics of different clusters are made. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper identifies the main features of CO2 emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China''s future energy requirements and projects its CO2 emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China''s rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO2 intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO2 emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country''s economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO2 emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The paper highlights the energy dilemma in China’s modernization process. It explores the technological and policy options for the transition to a sustainable energy system in China with Tsinghua University’s Low Carbon Energy Model (LCEM). China has already taken intensive efforts to promote research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies over the past five year. The policy actions cover binding energy conservation and environmental pollution control targets, economic incentives for sustainable energy, and public R&D supports. In order to achieve the sustainable energy system transformation eventually, however, China needs to take further actions such as strengthening R&D of radically innovative sustainable energy technologies and systems such as poly-generation, enhancing the domestic manufacturing capacity of sustainable energy technologies and systems, creating stronger economic incentives for research, development, demonstration and commercialization of sustainable energy technologies, and playing a leading role in international technology collaborations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]