Search

• The flood insurance industry is facing an existential threat from climate change. • Effective governance of climate change adaptation cannot rely on markets alone. • In the UK, new forms of intervention are being developed by the Flood Re initiative. • Structural reform of the flood insurance industry is needed. Floods are one of the most commonly occurring natural hazard events globally, and present a significant threat to the UK from climate change. Operating since 2016, Flood Re is an industry-government initiative, set up with the goal of reforming the flood insurance market in order to provide universal, affordable cover for UK households. Principally providing reinsurance services to insurers and including mutualisation arrangements, it aims to withdraw from the market in 2039, having paved the way for risk-reflective pricing without subsidy. Drawing on the theoretical work of Francois Ewald, and empirical data from interviews with 12 key stakeholders and documentary analysis, this paper traces a shift in Flood Re's insurantial imaginary, exemplified by the development of several solutions which go beyond its initial remit of providing reinsurance to private insurers. Findings show that this shift has been driven by the growing realisation that climate change is not merely a complicating factor for the ability to achieve a thriving insurance market, but demands a paradigmatic change in the governance of flood risk. We argue that Flood Re has an opportunity to adopt a leadership role in the governance of climate adaptation, but that it must be expanded to include a wider variety of stakeholders covering land-use planning, housing, consumer and community representatives. That a market for flood insurance that delivers on risk reduction and affordability for all can be brought about without structural reform to the industry nor a strong role for the state, is a delusion in light of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Analyse the impact of climate change on road transport systems. • Develop a risk prediction tool to reduce climate impact on roads. • Conduct economic analysis of various measures to reduce climate impact on roads. • Conduct an empirical study to provide useful insights for rational risk based climate adaptation. This paper aims to analyse the impacts of climate change to the current and predicted future situations of road transportation in the UK and evaluate the corresponding adaptation plans to cope with them. A conceptual framework of long-term adaptation planning for climate change in road systems is proposed to ensure the resilience and sustainability of road transport systems under various climate risks such as flooding and increased temperature. To do so, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is first employed to evaluate the climate risks in the UK road transport networks. This modelling approach can tackle the high uncertainty in risk data and thus facilitate the development of the climate adaptation framework and its application in the UK road sector. To examine the feasibility of this model, a nationwide survey is conducted among the stakeholders to analyse the climate risks, in terms of the timeframe of climate threats, the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of consequences, and infrastructure resilience. From the modelling perspective, this work brings novelty by expanding the risk attribute "the severity of consequence" into three sub-attributes including economic loss, damage to the environment, and injuries and/or loss of life. It advances the-state-of-the-art technique in the current relevant literature from a single to multiple tier climate risk modelling structure. Secondly, an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is used to prioritise the best adaptation measure(s) by considering both the risk analysis results from the FBR and the implementation costs simultaneously. The main new contributions of this part lie in the rich raw data collected from the real world to provide useful practical insights for achieving road resilience when facing increasing climate risk challenges. During this process, a qualitative analysis of several national reports regarding the impacts posed by climate change, risk assessment and adaptation measures in the UK road sector is conducted for the relevant decision data (i.e. risk and cost). It is also supplemented by an in-depth interview with a senior planner from Highways England. The findings provide road planners and decision makers with useful insights on identification and prioritisation of climate threats as well as selection of cost-effective climate adaptation measures to rationalise adaptation planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In order to assess the potential future impacts of climate change on urban areas, tools to assist decision-makers to understand future patterns of risk are required. This paper presents a modelling framework to allow the downscaling of national- and regional-scale population and employment projections to local scale land-use changes, providing scenarios of future socio-economic change. A coupled spatial interaction population model and cellular automata land development model produces future urbanisation maps based on planning policy scenarios. The framework is demonstrated on Greater London, UK, with a set of future population and land-use scenarios being tested against flood risk under climate change. The framework is developed in Python using open-source databases and is designed to be transferable to other cities worldwide. Highlights • Urban climate impacts must consider processes of socio-economic change alongside climate change. • A multi-scale modelling framework for climate impact assessment is presented and applied to London, UK. • Flood risk will increase with future climate change and socio-economic change may increase risk and impacts. • Potential adaptation options have trade-offs and co-benefits that can be assessed with the framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The last ten years have witnessed increasing levels of concern and public debate about the risks associated with environmental hazards such as flooding in the UK and the likelihood that these will increase in frequency due to anthropogenic climate change. In this paper, we argue that attempts to mitigate this process through a focus on individualised risk communication and behavioural change are unlikely to be successful, given the epistemic conflicts surrounding climate change knowledges in public discourse. In response, we argue for an alternative framework for developing environmental knowledges, using social learning to promote both epistemic re-alignment and a re-scaling of environmental governance that promotes enablement. We use insights from research on flooding in South West England to highlight the ways in which traditional policy approaches such as behavioural change have come to be so overbearing in public debate on environmental hazards management. In contrast, we demonstrate the potential for a re-scaling of environmental governance to reconfigure climate change knowledge and build new spaces for enablement to reduce hazard vulnerability at the place-based community scale. We argue that this has major epistemological and practical implications for the ways that researchers and policy makers work with publics to reduce hazard risk under a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multisectoral partnerships are increasingly cited as a mechanism to deliver and improve disaster risk management. Yet, partnerships are not a panacea and more research is required to understand the role that they can play in disaster risk management and particularly disaster risk reduction. This paper investigates how partnerships can incentivise flood risk reduction by focusing on the UK public-private partnership on flood insurance. Developing the right flood insurance arrangements to incentivise flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change is a key challenge. In the face of rising flood risks due to climate change and socio-economic development insurance partnerships can no longer afford to focus only on the risk transfer function. However, while expectations of the insurance industry have traditionally been high when it comes to flood risk management, the insurance industry alone will not provide the solution to the challenge of rising risks. The case of flood insurance in the UK illustrates this: even national government and industry together cannot fully address these risks and other actors need to be involved to create strong incentives for risk reduction. Using an agent-based model focused on surface water flood risk in London we analyse how other partners could strengthen the insurance partnership by reducing flood risk and thus helping to maintain affordable insurance premiums. Our findings are relevant for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and also internationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper presents a novel framework for undertaking climate change impact studies, which can be used for testing the robustness of precautionary climate change allowances used in engineering design. It is illustrated with respect to fluvial flood risk in the UK. The methodology departs from conventional scenario-led impact studies because it is based on sensitivity analyses of catchment responses to a plausible range of climate changes (rather than the time-varying outcome of individual scenarios), making it scenario-neutral. The method involves separating the climate change projections (the hazard) from the catchment responsiveness (the vulnerability) expressed as changes in peak flows. By combining current understanding of likelihood of the climate change hazard with knowledge of the sensitivity of a given catchment, it is possible to evaluate the fraction of climate model projections that would not be accommodated by specified safety margins. This enables rapid appraisal of existing or new precautionary allowances for a set of climate change projections, but also for any new set of climate change projections for example arising from a new generation of climate models as soon as they are available, or when focusing on a different planning time horizon, without the need for undertaking a new climate change impact analysis with the new scenarios. The approach is demonstrated via an assessment of the UK Government’s 20% allowance for climate change applied in two contrasting catchments. In these exemplars, the allowance defends against the majority of sampled climate projections for the 2080s from the IPCC-AR4 GCM and UKCP09 RCM runs but it is still possible to identify a sub-set of regional scenarios that would exceed the 20% threshold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]