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Abstract: The atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have been due largely to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, cultivation of the grasslands, drainage of the land, and land use changes. This has led to increase in greenhouse gases, created concerns about the potential for long-term climate change and interest in developing methods to sequester some of this atmospheric carbon. In agricultural land areas no-tillage (NT) systems have been proposed, to replace moldboard plow and chisel systems as a way to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC). Numerous estimates have been published of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration total and rates as a result of a switch to NT systems. Other researchers have proposed the use of cover crops, synthetic fertilizers, organic fertilizer, manure, liming, agricultural systems and management, agroforestry, forages, compost, crop rotations, and reduced row crop use as ways to sequester SOC. For SOC sequestration to occur as a result of a treatment applied to a land unit, all of the SOC sequestered must have come from atmosphere and be transferred into the soil humus through the unit plants, plant residues and other organic solids. The amount of SOC present in the soil humus at the end of the study has to be greater than the pre-treatment SOC levels in the same land unit and there needs to be a net depletion of atmospheric CO2 as a result. The objectives of this paper are to: (1) determine long-term study SOC levels and trends in agricultural lands, (2) application of the SOC sequestration concept to a specific site, (3) identify appropriate experimental designs for plot area use in determining SOC sequestration, (4) develop a procedure, such as pre-treatment measurements of SOC levels in the plots before treatments are applied, to verify SOC sequestration at a site (5) equivalent soil mass sampling method, (6) compare laboratory methods for quantifying SOC content, and (7) account for the loading of C rich amendments. To unequivocally demonstrate SOC sequestration at a specific site has occurred, a temporal increase must be documented relative to pre-treatment SOC level and linked to a net depletion of atmospheric CO2. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation's energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. This paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events. [Display omitted] • A systematic summer droughts generating capacity assessment framework is developed. • Capacity derating models for various generation technologies are presented. • The impacts of summer droughts on generating fleet in PJM and SERC are studied. • Impact of extreme summer drought on usable capacity of generators is significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The characteristic features of 21st-century corporate capitalism – monopoly and financialization – are increasingly being recognized by public health scholars as undermining the foundations of human health. While the "vectors" through which this is occurring are well known – poverty, inequality, climate change among others – locating the root cause of this process in the nature and institutions of contemporary capitalism is relatively new. Researchers have been somewhat slow to study the relationship between contemporary capitalism and human health. In this paper, we focus on one of the leading causes of death in the United States; cancer, and empirically estimate the relationship between various measures of financialization and monopoly in the US healthcare system and cancer mortality. The measures we focus on are for the hospital industry, the health insurance industry, and the pharmaceutical industry. Using a fixed effects model with different specifications and control variables, our analysis is at the state level for the years 2012–2019. These variables include data on population demographic controls, social and economic factors, and health behavior and clinical care. We compare Medicaid expansion states with non-Medicaid expansion states to investigate variations in state-level funded health insurance coverage. The results show a statistically significant positive correlation between the HHI index in the individual healthcare market and cancer mortality and the opioid dispensing rate and cancer mortality. • We analyze how corporate capitalism is related to cancer mortality. • Recently, corporate capitalism has become more common in the healthcare industry. • We find a correlation between hospital net revenue, profit, and cancer mortality. • There is a link between the HHI index in insurance markets and cancer mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to globally uneven distribution of forest resources and timely difference of supply and demand, forest products are difficult to achieve market equilibrium among neighboring countries. The global forest product trade not only alleviates the contradiction of supply and demand, but also ensures the sustainable development of the economic construction for each country. Previous literature analyzed the structure and evolution mechanism of forest product trade from different perspectives, but ignored the competitive relationships among forest product importers. Based on complex network theory, this paper selected global wood forest product trade data from 2004 to 2016. Then we constructed global unweighted and weighted wood-forest-product competitive network from import perspective, and three indicators (density, average path length, and clustering coefficient), core–periphery model and two indicators of competitive intensity were introduced to study the spatial competitive evolution of global wood forest product trade among countries. The results showed that there was wide competition in global wood forest product trade among continents, and the tightness of competitive relationships gradually decreased with time. Secondly, core countries and periphery countries were clearly identified in the competitive network, and China, Japan, the U.S., were the main core countries influencing the evolution of core–periphery structure. Finally, the U.S. played an important role in the global competition system. But with the increment of demand for Asian market, China and other Asian countries gradually became the center of wood-forest-product competition. The research tried to provide some references for importers to follow the laws of global wood forest product trade, and formulate the corresponding policy under constructing sustainable society and facing climate change. • The paper considered the competitive relationship of global wood forest product trade. • TThe paper constructed global unweighted and weighted wood-forest-product competitive network, and studied spatial competitive evolution of global wood forest product trade. • The U.S. played an important role in the global competition system, but China and other Asian countries gradually became the center of global wood-forest-product competition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In some coastal cities there is an urgent need to decide on adaptation investments given the long periods needed to complete the relevant infrastructures. However such decisions are usually made under significant uncertainty due to local climate change and socio-economic impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed four global scenarios according to different representative concentration pathways (RCPs); however, using these scenarios directly is equivalent to using incomplete information in the decision-making process because they do not provide information on what sea level rise behavior is most probable. In this study, I propose a model which assigns probabilities to IPCC scenarios with Local Sea Level Rise (LSLR) information. I obtain expected damage and risk measures for the world's 120 major coastal mega-cities at specific moments in time. That is, I consider uncertainty in both scenario selection and within each scenario. With this information it is possible to make adaptation investment decisions under uncertainty with a criterion of not exceeding certain risk levels in the future. The paper shows that in the year 2100 for the equal probability mixed scenario (25% RCP 2.6, 50% RCP 4.5 and 25 RCP 8.5) the expected damage is US$ 1,251,732 millions for New Orleans and US$ 1,196,517 millions for Guangzhou. The risk measurements show that in that year the damage in the 5% of worse cases will be US$ 2,800,756 millions for Guangzhou and US$ 1,832,466 millions for New Orleans. However, not all countries have sufficient resources to make the necessary adaptation investments, so we analyze expected damage and risk according to World Bank country income groups. The paper shows that the USA and China will need to make major adaptation investments in the future. The coastal LSLR risk in lower-income cities is also calculated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neither the concepts of antecedence nor superposition from an overlying sedimentary surface can explain many drainage networks that traverse ranges in the Basin and Range geomorphic province of the western U.S. Rather, much of the regional drainage network growth has resulted from pluvial lake overflows and basin breaching, causing episodic extensions of the trunk streams in a downstream direction. In this model, the primary role of sediment is to reduce basin volumes, thus increasing the chances of basin breaching by overflow. After basin breaching, a significant base-level drop often results, which leads to the erosion and recycling of sediments, and drainage network permanency. Therefore, remnants of basin fills reaching rim elevations, and other evidence of superposition are unlikely. Drainage network evolution appears to be closely tied to the large Plio-Pleistocene climatic shifts, suggesting that regional drainage integration in the Basin and Range is most likely a Pliocene or Quaternary phenomenon. • Sediment recycling accelerates the growth of river systems in closed basins. • Climate changes accelerate the growth of river systems in closed basins. • Young river networks grow downstream in a mostly random stepwise method. • The first paper to propose lake-overflow for the Colorado River system after 1934. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • An integrated approach is developed for environmental sustainability. • Climate variability has significant impacts on local environmental sustainability. • Rio Grande Basin is sustainable under current climate conditions. • Rio Grande Basin will become less sustainable in the late 21st century. Abstract Extreme weather events have been affecting local environmental sustainability. Previous literature in this field evaluates environmental sustainability based mainly on past and current resource consumption and availability, however, knowledge about the status and potential changes of environmental sustainability under future climate extremes is missing. This paper proposes an integrated approach (combining the Ecological Footprint Analysis with econometric regressions) to predict future environmental sustainability under different climate scenarios. Based on the case study of the U.S. Rio Grande Basin, the results show that this region has been sustainable in 1982–2012, although sustainability levels have been declining over time. In addition, projections for the future show that the entire region will most likely move away from sustainability by the end of this century under the high emission scenario (e.g., RCP8.5). These findings are relevant for sustainable resource management and allocation of local environmental resources as well as for decision-making support regarding climate risk adaptation and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Adaptation to water scarcity induced by future climate change will be crucial for the viability of agricultural economies in many areas of the world. In this paper, we study the acquisition of supplemental irrigation water rights as an adaptation strategy undertaken by irrigation-dependent farmers in response to historical climate change. By exploiting the panel structure of a unique dataset of farm-level supplemental right adoption decisions in the state of Oregon, we establish a relationship between climate conditions, competition for local water resources, and the acquisition of supplemental rights. Our results indicate that a warmer, drier climate increases the likelihood that irrigated farms acquire supplemental rights, suggesting that farmers in Oregon have used supplemental rights to adapt to historical climate change. We also find evidence of heterogeneous effects suggesting that junior irrigators, groundwater-dependent irrigators, and farmers with access to a relatively lower volume of water have been most affected by historical climate change with respect to their supplemental water right acquisition decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has drawn great attention in recent years because of its large impact on many aspects of the environment and human activities in buildings. One area directly affected by climate change is the energy consumption for heating and cooling. To quantify the impact, this study used the HadCM3 Global Circulation Model (GCM) to generate weather data for future typical meteorological years, such as 2020, 2050, and 2080, for 15 cities in the U.S. based on three CO 2 emission scenarios. The method was validated by comparing the projected TMY3 data using HadCM3 with the actual TMY3 data. By morphing method, the weather data was downscaled to hourly data for use in building energy simulations by EnergyPlus. Two types of residential buildings and seven types of commercial buildings were simulated for each of the 15 cities. This paper is the first to systematically study the climate change impact on various types of residential and commercial buildings in all seven climate zones in the U.S. through EnergyPlus simulations and provide weighted averaged results for national-wide building stock. We also identified geographical dependency of the impact of climate change on future energy uses. There would be a net increase in source energy consumption by the 2080s for climate zones 1–4 and net decrease in climate zones 6–7 based on the HadCM3 weather projection. Furthermore, this paper investigated natural ventilation performance in San Francisco, San Diego, and Seattle with improved natural ventilation model. We found that by the 2080s passive cooling would not be suitable for San Diego because of global warming, but it would still be acceptable for San Francisco and Seattle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to concerns related to climate change, and an attempt to encourage more sustainable behavior, individuals are often provided with information on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) of consumer items, such as personal vehicles. Currently in the US, information on vehicle efficiency is provided as grams of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) per mile. Previous research presenting CO 2 as a mass and testing willingness-to-pay through Discrete Choice Experiment has found that such information can influence vehicle choice. However, other research has questioned whether how this information is presented might affect choice. That research argues that CO 2 emission information generally lacks contextualization that allows for interpretation. As well, it argues that the type of contextualization may affect choices. That research though did not test willingness-to-pay and the strength of its influence is not clear. In addition, research exists that argues that using pro-social, as opposed to financial, contextualization might be more influential on people’s choices. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to build on these previous findings on how CO 2 emissions are presented to determine whether changing how that information impacts vehicle choice with a Discrete Choice Experiment of vehicle choice analyzed using latent class modeling. No previous study has so robustly studied the influence that different framings might have on vehicle purchase. Five different methods of presenting CO 2 information are tested in this experiment: CO 2 emissions as grams per mile (current method), CO 2 emissions as pounds per year (consistent imperial units), CO 2 emissions as tons per year (yearly contextualization), an annual tax on CO 2 (yearly financial contextualization), and CO 2 as a percentage of the 2025 US EPA reduction target of 26% from 2005 levels (social goal contextualization). Results demonstrate that the current method results in lowest willingness to pay for CO 2 emission reductions, while the social goal contextualization results in the highest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the relationship between income inequality and carbon emissions in the United States between 1929 and 2019. We contribute to the literature by studying if and how the relationship has varied over time. To this end we estimate a band spectrum regression model and a smooth-varying coefficients model. Our results show that higher inequality was associated with lower emissions during the early part of the sample and higher emissions towards the end of the sample. • Whether the level of inequality affects carbon dioxide emssions is unclear. • We test the association between income inequalty and carbon dioxide emissions. • We find that the relationship varies over time. • Changes in consumption patterns may partially explain the time varying effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between renewable energy production and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) using U.S. state-level data for 2010. After controlling for other sources of emissions, U.S. states that produce a larger share of renewable energy are found to have lower GHG emissions. It is estimated that a 10% increase in the share of renewable energy could decrease CH 4 emissions by about 0.26%. Since the use of renewable energy sources does not release GHG emissions, this effect can be interpreted as stabilizing if renewable energy is added to coal use or as corrective if it replaces coal. After accounting for the role of coal as a baseload power source, an increase in the share of renewable energy is estimated to mitigate N 2 O emissions at the U.S. state level only if states individually decrease their share of coal use to levels below 41.47%. These findings have significant policy implications for the provision of guidance to policymakers in identifying optimal energy mixes and in pursuing realistic goals to enhance renewable energy penetration and to contribute to the current efforts of tackling climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drop-in biofuels that are compatible with the existing vehicle and retail infrastructure continue to receive great attention due to their promise in addressing climate change and energy security concerns stemming from use of petroleum-based fuels. In this paper we discuss current drop-in biofuel production technologies and assess relevant biofuel policies in the U.S., particularly those impacting forest biomass in Maine and the Northeast. In this context, we examine the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) policy and its definition of biomass which favors biomass from plantations regardless of actual ecological impacts on biodiversity, soil and water quality. We argue that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should consider revising the definition of biomass eligible for renewable fuel credits to include sustainably managed natural forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green growth is increasingly being seen as a means of simultaneously meeting current and future climate change obligations and reducing unemployment. This paper uses detailed industry-level data from the Bureau of Labor Statistic's Green Goods and Services survey to examine how the provision of so-called green goods and services has affected various aspects of the US economy. Our descriptive results reveal that those states and industries that were relatively green in 2010 became even greener in 2011. To investigate further we include green goods and services in a production function. The results show that between 2010 and 2011 industries that have increased their share of green employment have reduced their productivity although this negative correlation was only for the manufacture of green goods and not for the supply of green services. In further analysis we investigate skill-technology complementarities in the production of green goods and services and show that industries that increased their provision of green goods and services grew more slowly, reduced their expenditure on technology inputs and increased their demand for medium educated workers, whilst simultaneously reducing their demand for lower skilled workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As bacteria and diseases spread due to climatic change, greater amounts of antibiotics will be used thereby exacerbating the problem of antibiotic resistance. To help slacken the development of resistant bacteria, the medical community is attempting to reduce unnecessary and excessive usage of antibiotics. One of the targets is the use of antibiotics for enhancing animal growth and promoting feed efficiency in the production of food animals. While governments can adopt regulations prohibiting nontherapeutic uses of antibiotics in food animals and strategies to reduce antibiotic usage, another idea is to publicize when antibiotics are used in food animal production by allowing labeled meat products. This paper builds upon existing labeling and marketing efforts in the United States to show how a government can develop a verified antibiotic-free labeling program that would allow consumers to purchase meat products from animals that had never received antibiotics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing demands for food security to feed increasing populations worldwide have intensified the search for improved performance of irrigation, the world’s largest water user. These challenges are raised in the face of climate variability and from growing environmental demands. Adaptation measures in irrigated agriculture include fallowing land, shifting cropping patterns, increased groundwater pumping, reservoir storage capacity expansion, and increased production of risk-averse crops. Water users in the Gila Basin headwaters of the U.S. Lower Colorado Basin have faced a long history of high water supply fluctuations producing low-valued defensive cropping patterns. To date, little research grade analysis has investigated economically viable measures for irrigation development to adjust to variable climate. This gap has made it hard to inform water resource policy decisions on workable measures to adapt to climate in the world’s dry rural areas. This paper’s contribution is to illustrate, formulate, develop, and apply a new methodology to examine the economic performance from irrigation capacity improvements in the Gila Basin of the American Southwest. An integrated empirical optimization model using mathematical programming is developed to forecast cropping patterns and farm income under two scenarios (1) status quo without added storage capacity and (2) with added storage capacity in which existing barriers to development of higher valued crops are dissolved. We find that storage capacity development can lead to a higher valued portfolio of irrigation production systems as well as more sustained and higher valued farm livelihoods. Results show that compared to scenario (1), scenario (2) increases regional farm income by 30%, in which some sub regions secure income gains exceeding 900% compared to base levels. Additional storage is most economically productive when institutional and technical constraints facing irrigated agriculture are dissolved. Along with additional storage, removal of constraints on weak transportation capacity, limited production scale, poor information access, weak risk-bearing capacity, limited management skills, scarce labor supply, low food processing capacity, and absolute scale constraints, all can raise the economic value of additional irrigation capacity development. Our results light a path forward to policy makers, water administrators, and farm managers, who bear the burden of protecting farm income, food and water security, and rural economic development in the world’s dry regions faced by the need to adapt to climate variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a methodology for the rational assessment of lifetime costs on tall buildings due to hurricane-induced damage along the US Atlantic coastline accounting for plausible future warming climate scenarios. The hurricane simulation is based on Vickery’s empirical model. Initially, regression errors in Vickery’s model are discussed; some adjustments are proposed to enable hurricane simulation in future climates. After verification of the hurricane model’s ability to simulate the results of the United States historical hurricane database, simulation of hurricane activity in future climates is examined. The warming climate scenarios are reproduced from the results of the community earth system model, maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Three different future climate scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are considered. The influence of warming climate on two quantities, relevant to wind engineering, is examined: hurricane frequency and hurricane intensity. It is found that, in a warming climate environment, the hurricane frequency and hurricane intensity may vary depending on the RCP scenario. Therefore, the probability distribution of the wind speed in hurricane-prone areas of the United States, both coastal and interior areas, will also be influenced by the RCPs. The numerical methodology for computing wind speed probability distribution in a future warming climate, influenced by the various RCP scenarios, is subsequently coupled with an existing approach for structural performance analysis against wind hazards to predict the indirect effect of future warming climate on the structural intervention costs (i.e. repair costs), induced by the damaging winds. A 180-m tall benchmark building, located in Miami (Florida, USA), is used as one example of application in conjunction with a series of structural fragility curves, derived from a recent study for the same structure. The evaluation of lifetime intervention costs is later expanded to demonstrate the ability of the proposed methodology to predict hurricane wind damage, if the location of the structure is moved to several other cities along the Atlantic coast of the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees in residential neighborhoods and communities provide benefits for homeowners that are capitalized into residential property values. In this paper, we collected data from hedonic property value studies and merged these data with ancillary spatial data describing forest and socio-economic characteristics surrounding each study area to conduct a meta-analysis of the impact of tree canopy cover on the value of residential properties. The meta-analysis suggests that property-level tree cover of about 30% and county-level tree cover of about 38% maximize the implicit price of tree cover in property values. Currently, tree cover in the original study areas was about 14%, on average, around or near study properties. The empirical results, therefore suggest under investment of tree cover on private property from the perspective of individual property owners and from a societal perspective. The findings also have implications for community forest programs regarding planting trees and protection of mature trees to address potential changes in tree abundance, species diversity and stand age due to development and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Low carbon cities. What, exactly, are we talking about? Are we talking about lifestyles, activities, or enterprises? Are we talking about individual or group voluntary behavior change or a policy framework that seeks to encourage behavior change by regulatory force? Faced with an enormous literature that mixes related topics like sustainable development/climate change/energy conservation/low carbon, it is not surprising to hear about local governments’ or planners’ “climate change initiatives”. This paper describes/reflects on how officials in Broward County, Florida, are dealing with issues of awareness, governance, measurement, and instruments for challenges arising from the combined threats of energy depletion and climate change. The overriding objective of this paper is to provide some pith for the discussion of planning for low carbon cities. To this end, we describe and reflect on the planning management responses of Broward County, Florida, USA – as an illustrative local government – in dealing with climate change challenges (CCC), energy conservation (EC) and greenhouse gas reduction (GHG). Both description and reflection are important as it is primarily the latter that provides the critical perspective necessary for assessing both potential and effect. The paper is organized into five sections. The first two sections address the “contextual” questions raised above: what is the level of knowledge and/or awareness among the collection of planners and/or local governments; and, what are/is appropriate responses of different levels of government. In the next section, we review overall levels of knowledge and awareness of basic science and policy dimensions, with particular attention paid to (a version of the) US planning profession. This is followed by a discussion of “theoretical” prescriptions for actions at different levels of government. The third and fourth sections focus on Broward County. The third section describes the county and presents a current measurement of its carbon footprint (at least at the level to which it can be measured). The fourth section describes the operational response of Broward County government. The final section returns to the original questions of knowledge and appropriate types of responses and argues that while the Broward response is generally effective in certain aspects, the current policy paradigm contains both strengths and weaknesses, which are generally outlined and discussed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we review interdecadal climatic variability in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This variability dominates the climatic fluctuations in the North Pacific on scales between ENSO and the centennial trend and is commonly referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO. We include a historical overview and a summary of observational work that describes the surface, tropospheric and subsurface signatures of this variability. Descriptions of interdecadal variability are incomplete at best, mostly due to limitations in the observational record. We emphasize that the well-known “ENSO-like” sea surface temperature (SST) pattern describing the PDO may not be an accurate representation. In the eastern tropical Pacific, the SST maxima are displaced north and south of the equator with larger amplitudes in the northern branch near the coast of North America, which has significant implications for the troposphere-driven circulations. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the PDO. We review these mechanisms and models, which capture our present level of understanding of the problem. We conclude by reporting there is little evidence of both multidecadal variability and the centennial trend in the eastern tropical Pacific. This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Whole building life cycle assessment (WBLCA) has received significant attention from the research community in the past few years. The United States Green Building Council (USGBC) has made it an option for receiving points in version 4 of its Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system. Yet, the research described in this paper has revealed that the process of WBLCA as applied to LEED is not very well understood by building professionals. As many building professionals do not understand WBLCA, very few pursue it for their new building projects. The objective of the research described in this paper was to examine and clarify issues related to WBLCA as it applies to LEED. The paper presents a six-step process for conducting a WBLCA and use the process on a building case study for which a LEED compliant WBLCA was conducted and approved. The paper also suggests improvements to the current LEED WBLCA requirements that have the potential to further reduce the embodied energy and environmental impacts of materials used in new building projects. The ultimate goal of the research presented in the paper is to increase the building industry awareness of the WBLCA process and make it "business as usual". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate are likely to induce changes in precipitation characteristics including intensity, frequency, duration and patterns of events. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of multiple regional climate models (RCMs) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to simulate storm properties including storm duration, inter-storm period, storm intensity, and within-storm patterns at eight locations in the continental US. We also investigate the future projections of them based on precipitation from NARCCAP historic runs and future runs. Results illustrate that NARCCAP RCMs are consistent with observed precipitation in the seasonal variation of storm duration and inter-storm period, but fail to simulate the magnitude. The ability to simulate the seasonal trend of average storm intensity varies among locations. Within-storm patterns from RCMs exhibit greater variability than from observed records. Comparisons between RCM-historic simulations and RCM projections indicate that there is a large variation in the future changes in storm properties. However, multi-model ensembles of the storm properties suggest that most regions of the United States will experience future changes in storm properties that includes shorter storm duration, longer inter-storm period, and larger average storm intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind-generated electricity is a growing renewable energy resource. Because wind results from the uneven heating (and resulting pressure gradients) of the Earth, future wind resources may be affected by anticipated climate change. Many studies have used global and regional climate models to predict trends in the future wind resource over the continental United States. While some of these studies identified regions that are expected to gain wind energy, their results often come with a high degree of uncertainty, and lack of agreement across different climate models. In this paper we focus on wind energy density as a measure of the available wind resource over the continental United States. We estimate the change in wind energy density from the period 1968–2000 to the period 2038–2070 by using output from four regional climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). We find strong agreement across all 4 models that the wind energy resource is expected to increase in parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas – a region already in possession of both large scale generating capacity and political support for wind energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Activists and scholars increasingly blame neoliberalism for the failure to sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but there is insufficient research that investigates the theoretical link between neoliberalism and climate paralysis. This paper seeks to fill that gap by presenting a coherent account of how neoliberal ideology has constrained policies to address climate change in the United States. As motivation, we first present evidence suggesting more neoliberal countries perform worse in addressing climate change. We then analyze how three tenets of neoliberal ideology—to decentralize democracy, defund public investment, and deregulate the economy—have stymied climate action in the United States. Finally, we discuss the Green New Deal as a decisively anti-neoliberal framework that seeks to wield the power of the federal government to pursue large-scale public investments and binding climate regulations for rapid decarbonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Comparison of Budyko-based methods to separate catchment and climate effects on flow. • Probabilistic nature of catchment parameter and its uncertainty considered. • New, improved Two-Stage Decomposition method proposed for separation. • Proposed method considers uncertainty in evaporative index using bootstrap method. • Proposed method more robust than using any single earlier-practiced method. Streamflow variability is affected by both climate change and direct human impacts within the catchment. Quantification of the role of these two factors have significant implications for water resources. In recent years, Budyko-based analytical methods have been widely used for such quantification due to their simplicity and efficacy. This paper presents a comparison of such methods to attribute changes in streamflow in four Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) catchments in the contiguous United States. Further, a new, improved Two-stage Decomposition method to separate the role of climate and catchment changes on streamflow is proposed, considering the uncertainty in the catchment parameter that further leads to a range of evaporative index values within a catchment. We find that climate and catchment effects are sensitive to the choice of Budyko equation, disaggregation algorithm and approximation technique. Further, the catchment parameter can be expressed probabilistically, to account for the uncertainty because of limited hydro-meteorological records. The proposed approach employs a bootstrap analysis to obtain the stochastic range of the catchment parameter, considering different choices of Budyko equations. We argue that rather than relying on a single Budyko-based approach for separation of climate and catchment effects on streamflow, the proposed method offers a more robust way by considering the entire range of uncertainty of the catchment parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary objectives of recent energy initiatives have been: (1) lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and (2) increasing US energy security by reducing oil imports for the purposes of making the US less vulnerable to the actions of other countries. The concern is that relying on sometimes adversarial, sometimes unstable countries for a quarter of our oil carries certain risks. For that reason, reducing the external oil dependence has been of interest to policy makers. This paper examines the impacts and costs of transportation-based policies on light-duty vehicle fleet energy usage and emissions. Using the 2010 elastic version of the US Environmental Protection Agency's Market Allocation (MARKAL) model, recent increases in US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards are compared to what some economists suggest would be a much more “efficient” alternative-asystem-wide oil tax internalizing a number of environmental externalities. We discover that our series of oil taxes produce larger and more cost-effective reductions in economy-wide emissions than CAFE. The same cannot be said in regards to net oil imports. Stricter fuel economy regulations result in much larger cutbacks in imports than the oil tax. In fact, we found that in 2040 import demands are roughly 250 million BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) higher with our oil tax regime than they are with CAFE. The additional import reductions achieved with stricter CAFE Standards do come, however, at a much larger cost to society. A great deal of these additional economic costs stems from greater usage of more energy-efficient automobiles and the higher initial capital costs associated with their adoption. In our supplementary analysis, we find that even if the costs of these types of vehicles are lowered by as much as 75%, oil taxes would still be able to maintain their competitive edge over CAFE standards in regards to cost-effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increase of precipitation intensity is the most definite and detectable hydrological consequence of a warmer climate. Among all U.S. regions, the Northeast has witnessed the strongest increase of extreme precipitation in the past five decades. This study examines the impact of climate changes during 1950–2011 on hydrological processes in the Northeast using the Connecticut River Basin as a case study. In addition to precipitation and river discharge data from observations, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model is used to derive hydrological variables for which long-term observational data are not readily available. Our results show a clear increase of precipitation intensity, with substantial increase in both the number of days with greater than 10 mm precipitation and the simple daily intensity index. From 1950 to 2011, extreme precipitation amount (which is the total amount of precipitation from the upper 1% of daily precipitation) increased substantially, by 240% relative to the 1950 level. The weight of extreme precipitation as a fraction of total precipitation also increased, from about 10.6% in the 1950s to 30.4% in the 2000s. Despite the increase of precipitation extremes, the consecutive dry days experienced a slight decrease. Mean trend analysis shows indications of increasing precipitation amount, increasing discharge, increasing runoff ratios, increasing soil moisture, and a negligible evapotranspiration trend. Our simulations suggest that the basin is entering a wetter regime more subject to meteorological flood conditions than to drought conditions. A companion paper will investigate how these trends may persist or differ in the mid-21st century under continued warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Renewable energy is an option for many countries simultaneously seeking to reduce dependence on imported petroleum and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that contribute to climate change. Forestry can play a role in environmental policies, such as renewable portfolio standards for bioelectricity, renewable fuel standards for biofuels, and forest carbon sequestration. This paper models interactions and interdependencies between bioelectricity and biofuel production, particularly from forest biomass. A global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to measure the economic effects of bioenergy production from forest products, forest residues, and dedicated energy crops. The land use and emissions impacts on the global economy of revenue-neutral GHG mitigation policies are evaluated. Results show that mandated bioenergy production can substantially reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially through fossil fuel substitution in the electricity sector. Although emissions reductions from bioenergy production in the transportation fuel sector are less dramatic than those in the electricity sector, biofuels also have lower emissions rates than petroleum-based transportation fuels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Actual operation energy consumption of the high energy efficiency buildings built and operated in China and U.S. has been quite different than expected. This paper compares actual energy consumption to expect high energy efficiency office buildings in U.S. and China. Considering the different indoor design temperature, climate conditions and operated period between the compared cases in the two countries impact on the building energy consumption, correction model was built to eliminate the influence of the three factors on the comparison result and put the comparison analysis of high energy efficiency office buildings in the two countries into the same level. Regard to building general information and climate condition, four pairs of buildings in typical climate zones of China and U.S. were selected to compare the building energy conservation technology and building energy consumption based on a large scale of investigation and testing. After corrected, the energy consumption data are analyzed, including total energy consumption, and sub-metering energy consumption such as heating, cooling, lighting, office equipment, etc.. The energy saving technologies applied in these four pairs of buildings was also compared to explain energy consumption differences. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The wide, sediment-starved continental shelf and modern coastal areas of the southeastern United States retain well-preserved but scattered remnants of a submerged paleolandscape. This paper presents a conceptual model of stratigraphic deposition and landscape formation since the last interglacial on the continental shelf of South Carolina, with portions of North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida (USA). Data for this study include multibeam bathymetry surveys, sidescan sonar mosaics, high-resolution subbottom profiles, and ground-truth surveys from −250m to the modern tidewater region. Four bathymetric zones are recognized with eleven landforms and landform indicators. The described zones range in depths from the modern shoreline, across the shelf, and over the shelf edge to −250m MSL. Relative sea level curves are presented for the area and discussed in conjunction with cultural and climatic events. The potential for preservation of Paleoamerican sites is high at the shelf edge between −130m and −45m, with Archaic and later occupations likely in depths of less than −25m. Prominent vantage points for Paleoamericans (>11kya) would have existed at the shelf edge, and tidewater resources would have been available nearby for a period of almost 6ka. Rapid transgression rates (>60km/ka) after the sea level rose over the shelf edge make preservation of tidewater sites less likely on the outer and middle shelf. Searches for the earliest Paleoamericans should focus on promontories at the edge of the shelf and along future discoveries of paleoincisions on the shelf. Mapping and delineating this paleolandscape and associated unconsolidated sedimentary deposits interspersed with rocky plains and ledges will continue to be a priority to marine archeologists, coastal managers, fishery scientists, and marine spatial planners over the next several decades. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The accurate and consistent identification of fossil pollen is essential to allow robust inferences to be drawn with regard to past climate and vegetation change. Identifications are best achieved through the direct inspection of reference material. Most substantial reference collections are held at prestigious universities in Europe or the United States of America which can restrict access for researchers trying to advance palynology in less developed countries. Digital imaging and fast spreading access to the internet means that it is now possible to produce and disseminate high quality images from pollen reference collections. In this paper we contribute to this growing body of work by presenting images of 364 pollen taxa from West Tropical Africa both as printed plates with a key, and within an associated online searchable database. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper investigates the challenge that U.S. aviation would face in meeting future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction goals to mitigate global climate change via technological options. This investigation is done within a framework that considers aviation GHG emissions as a function of aviation growth, aircraft efficiency, operational efficiency, and life cycle GHG emissions of aviation fuels. The concept of life cycle GHG intensity (LGI) with units of grams carbon dioxide equivalent per payload distance traveled is used for this purpose as it can be decomposed into components that quantify improvements in aircraft design, operations, and alternative fuels. For example, the life cycle GHG intensity of U.S. aviation in 2005 was 1.37g CO2e/kgkm. If U.S. aviation is to meet the IATA 2050 goal of a 50% reduction in CO2 relative to a 2005 baseline while allowing for a 3.2% annual growth rate in payload–distance traveled, it will need to decrease to 0.22g CO2e/kgkm in 2050, an 84% reduction. The analysis framework that is developed in this manuscript was used to compare the improvements in life cycle GHG intensity that could accompany the use of advanced aircraft designs, operational improvements, and alternative fuels to those required on a fleet-wide basis to meet the future GHG reduction goals under varied aviation growth scenarios. The results indicate that the narrow body segment of the fleet could indeed meet ambitious goals of reducing GHG emissions by 50%, relative to 2005 levels, with a 3.2% annual growth rate; however, it would require relatively rapid adoption of innovative aircraft designs and the widespread use of alternative fuels with relatively low life cycle GHG emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A comprehensive analysis of data from commercial buildings in United States to identify operational problems and opportunities. • These opportunities were not strongly correlated with building vintage, size, or building type, but were reflective of how the buildings are operated. • This analysis showed that opportunities to improve building operations exist in almost every building. • There was wide variation in whole building energy savings, ranging from 0 to 50% and 0 to 18 $/m2 with median percent annual whole building savings of 12% and median normalized annual cost savings of $1.75/m2. In the United States, as much as 30% of the 19 EJ that commercial buildings consume is considered excess. Much of the excess energy is due to the inability to manage building operations efficiently. Because almost 20% of the total primary energy consumption is associated with commercial buildings, significant energy reductions in this sector are needed to mitigate climate change. Therefore, many cities and states are mandating periodic "tune-ups" of these buildings to eliminate excess energy consumption. Although the benefits of tune-ups and retro -commissioning are clear, focusing these mandates to look for specific opportunities has been a challenge because of the lack of studies that document the prevalence of opportunities. Therefore, we analyzed building automation system data from 151 buildings across the United States to document common operational problems and opportunities to improve building operations. This analysis showed that opportunities to improve building operations exist in almost every building. These opportunities were not strongly correlated with building vintage or size, but were reflective of how the buildings are operated. The prevalence of the top 20 opportunities ranged between 74% and 23%, with 40% of these associated with air-handling units. The rest of the opportunities are associated with schedules, chilled and hot-water distribution, and zone controls. Of the 151 buildings, 69 of them implemented corrective actions of some or all opportunities that were identified. Implementation varied across the Re-tuning categories, with 60% for schedule opportunities, 50% for zone opportunities, over 40% for the air-handling unit and hot-water opportunities, and 35% of the chilled-water opportunities. There was wide variation in whole building energy savings, ranging from 0 to 50% and 0 to 18 $/m2 with median percent annual whole building savings of 12% and median normalized annual cost savings of $1.75/m2. In addition to documenting these key findings, the paper provides a list of opportunities that can be automatically and continuously identified and corrected and offers a list of those opportunities that should be the focus of the mandates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Hydrological time series increasingly exhibit non-stationarity, e.g., variables such as precipitation and streamflow values do not maintain a consistent mean over long periods, due to natural and anthropogenic changes. Detecting whether such shifts are gradual or abrupt is a growing concern for water resources planning and management. This paper shows that conventional trend and change-point tests do not adequately enable these two types of change to be distinguished. We propose a method for combining the rank correlations of the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt statistics to extract an indicator whose value determines whether a shift observed in a given time series is gradual or abrupt. This method allows the success rate to be independent of the length of record, and it is validated with Monte-Carlo experiments. The limitations caused by the short and noisy nature of hydroclimatic time series are discussed. As an application, the proposed method provides useful insights on changes in hydroclimatic variables in the United States during 1910–2009 using time series from 1217 stations in the United States Hydroclimatic Data Network (USHCN). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: Multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Northern peatlands are among the most carbon-rich ecosystems on Earth, but many unanswered questions remain regarding linkages between their long-term developmental processes and climatic variability. In this paper, we present a detailed paleoecological reconstruction of the developmental history of a kettle peatland in northern Wisconsin, USA (Fallison Bog) based on 21 coring locations and temporally constrained by 69 radiocarbon dates. This record of within-basin developmental history is compared to a regional dataset containing estimated ages of peatland establishment for 75 core samples collected from 37 depressional peatlands throughout the Great Lakes Region. Finally, our data are used to develop a spatially explicit model of whole-system carbon accumulation in Fallison Bog, which distinguishes between carbon pools stored in limnic sediments and peat deposits. Results indicate that peatland development in Fallison Bog was episodic and spatially complex. Peatland development was related to the morphology of the underlying basin and characterized by pulses of both terrestrialization and paludification. Major episodes of terrestrialization centered on 4980 and 3180 years before A.D. 1850 (cal yr BP), with less extensive episodes occurring around 3840, 1060, 670, and 410 cal yr BP. Extensive peatland area developed by paludification of shallow portions of the basin around 2040 cal yr BP. The timing of peatland development within Fallison Bog was correlated with the timing of peatland development in other depressional peatlands across the Great Lakes Region (r = 0.70), suggesting a common climatic driver. Comparison of peatland development in Fallison Bog and independent paleoclimate records suggested that both millennial-scale and sub-centennial-scale variability in moisture balance influenced spatiotemporal patterns of peatland development. Model results indicated that Fallison Bog accumulated ∼6655 t of carbon during the Holocene, with 66% of this total stored in peat deposits that have accumulated in only the last ∼5000 years. Collectively, model results and the strong correlation between the timing of within-basin and regional pulses of peatland establishment imply that depressional peatlands likely experienced climate-sensitive and episodic changes in carbon accumulation rates during the Holocene, and similar dynamics could be expected in response to ongoing and future climatic change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the only technology available to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from large-scale fossil fuel usage. U.S. and China are the world’s largest GHG emitters. Collaboration between the two nations, therefore, offers the greatest opportunity for achieving meaningful reductions in global GHG emissions. Two countries’ current cooperation on CCS through Clean Energy Research Center based on the U.S.–China Strategic Forum on Clean Energy Cooperation mechanism provides an important initial step towards even closer and stronger cooperation in the future. In this paper, we justify such possibility by discourse on the seemly different but complementary social–political context in two countries including political system, government structure, economic policy, national innovation system, energy strategy, and energy market structure. We further address the key elements of future cooperation model by carefully considering the principle of equality and mutual beneficiary, the role of two countries in the whole value chain according to their comparative advantages, and the scale and mechanism of the funding. A milestone for the cooperation until 2030 is drafted and priority areas for both countries in the cooperation are identified. Such cooperation will provide the imperative leadership for global climate change and speed up the global CCS deployment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The present paper studies the land use change impacts of fuels and biofuels. We test the theoretical hypothesis, which says that changes in fuel prices cause changes in land use both directly and indirectly and that, because of price inter-dependencies, biofuels reinforce the land use change impacts. We apply time-series analytical mechanisms to five major traded agricultural commodities, the cultivated area of agricultural land and crude oil price. Our data consists of yearly observations extending from 1950 to 2007 for the US. The empirical findings confirm that markets for crude oil and cultivated agricultural land are interdependent: an increase in oil price by 1dollar/barrel increases land use between 54,000 and 68,000ha. We also find that the increase of bioenergy sector accelerates land use change in the US, i.e. food commodities are being substituted for bioenergy crops. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Global temperature rise over the long term will be proportional to the total amount of CO2 emitted. Any given probability of exceeding a targeted maximum temperature rise implies a maximum limit on the cumulative total of CO2 that can be emitted: a CO2 “budget”. This paper describes an approach to modelling cumulative emissions from light and heavy duty road transport from the present to 2050, focussing on the USA and Europe, and comparing the potential impacts of a range of technological and behaviourally-based abatement measures with such cumulative emissions budgets. The model shows that abatement measures would have a lower effect on cumulative emissions from 2000 to 2050 than on annual emissions in 2050, so that focussing only on annual emissions could be misleading. It shows that technological developments would be insufficient on their own to enable Europe and the USA to meet CO2 budgets for road transport. Behavioural changes, which potentially can be implemented much sooner, would be essential too. There is potential to keep European light duty emissions very close to CO2 budgets, and US light duty emissions not far above the least restrictive budget, but the model predicts that heavy duty emissions in both regions are likely to exceed their CO2 budgets. Deeper emissions reductions in other regions and sectors will be needed to compensate for this. Timing would be critical: for the greatest impact, behaviour change policies and interventions would need to be applied early and deeply. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: It can be argued that the main thinking in transport planning and policy making stem from neoclassical economics in which individuals are largely assumed to make rational, consistent, and efficient choices, and apply cognitive processes of decision making that maximise their economic utility. Research in behavioural sciences indicates that individuals’ choices in a wide range of contexts deviate from the predictions of the rational man paradigm inspired the research agenda in the field of travel behaviour. New concepts and practices of government aim to apply some behavioural economics insights in the design of behavioural change initiatives and measures, an approach recently advocated in the US and the UK. This paper provides a brief review on the use and potential of behavioural economics from the perspective of transport and climate change, in two main contexts: travel demand modelling and design of behaviour change measures. The discussion of limitations and knowledge gaps associated with the implementation of behavioural economics to a travel behaviour context might contribute to the debate and help in defining research agenda in this area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Thermal mass combined with other passive strategies can play an important role in buildings energy efficiency, minimizing the need of space-conditioning mechanical systems. However, the use of lightweight materials with low thermal mass is becoming increasingly common. Phase Change Materials (PCMs) can add thermal energy storage benefits to lightweight constructions. There are many studies about the use of PCM in buildings, but there are still some difficulties for effective use and practical application of these materials. The study of applications used in real buildings could help us find solutions to these difficulties. This paper analyzed different PCM applications presented in highly efficient lightweight construction houses that have participated in the American Solar Decathlon, an international competition organized by U.S. Department of Energy. These houses have been tested and monitored in Washington DC, place with suitable climate conditions for short term thermal storage systems. The study started with a classification of the PCM applications and included an analysis of the systems, materials, switching temperatures, containments and design strategies used to improve the houses energy performance. Also, it included results of numerical simulations and experimentation that the participant team had done, complemented with information available in the literature about similar materials or applications. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from satellite observations provide important information on the state of terrestrial vegetation over a wide range of spatiotemporal scales. For understanding long-term changes in terrestrial ecosystems (post-1981), data collected by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board the satellites of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) series is a unique source of information. In this paper, we describe a new processing methodology for a comprehensive AVHRR data set at 1km spatial resolution acquired over Canada, the northern United States and Greenland post-1981. The methodology incorporates a pre-processing algorithm, Canadian AVHRR Processing System (CAPS), recently developed by the Canada Centre of Remote Sensing (CCRS), which enables highly accurate geolocation and ortho-rectification at efficiency rates of >90%. Once image navigation is completed, our approach consists of five key steps: first, two clear-sky composites for each 10day interval are generated from the forward or backward scattering hemisphere; second, AVHRR Channel 1 and 2 reflectances are normalized to the AVHRR/3 on board NOAA-17 to account for differences in the spectral response function among the AVHRR sensors; third, atmospheric correction is performed using the Simplified Method for Atmospheric correction (SMAC) algorithm, using standard meteorological data sets (water vapor, surface level air pressure, ozone); fourth, NDVI is calculated based on atmospherically corrected Channel 1 and 2 reflectances; and finally, the NDVI is adjusted for directional effects based on the Ross-Thick Li-Sparse Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) model. The processed NDVI data are compared to an equivalent spatially and temporally overlapping MODIS NDVI data set from 2001 to 2005 for validation. Results at continental scale indicate that time series of MODIS and AVHRR were similar for a wide range of biomes and generalized ecoregions. Analysis stratified by land cover indicated that the correlation was strongest for homogeneous land cover types, such as cropland, when compared to structurally more diverse classes, such as deciduous broadleaf forests. The comparison of the NDVI at the local scale at seven sites of the Fluxnet Canada Research Network resulted in the correlation coefficient r=0.95. Given confidence in the processing approach, this NDVI data set can be a valuable source of information for climate and vegetation-related studies over Canada and the northern United States. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes the use of passive sampling systems and surrogate surfaces for monitoring atmospheric mercury (Hg) concentrations and dry deposition, respectively, in Florida,USA. Although this area has been reported to have low air concentrations, wet deposition values, reported by the Mercury Deposition Network, are some of the highest in the United States, and little is known about the magnitude of dry deposition to the region. To address this uncertainty, dry deposition of gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM) was estimated based on data collected using surrogate surfaces and through the application of a dry deposition model that utilized Tekran® Mercury Analyzer data for three sites (Davie near Fort Lauderdale, Tampa and Pensacola) over a year (July 2009-July 2010). Passive sampler systems for monitoring GOM and total gaseous mercury (TGM) concentrations were also deployed. In general, higher surrogate surface deposition, and GOM and TGM passive sampler uptake were observed at the DVE location. Across all sites, empirically derived dry deposition was higher than that determined using modeled values. Tekran® Instrument derived GOM concentrations, as well as modeled deposition rates, followed the same seasonal and spatial patterns as that measured by the samplers, however there were some spatial and temporal trends captured by the samplers that were not seen in the Tekran® derived data. Results indicate that these samplers may be applied to identify spatial and temporal trends in air Hg concentrations and potential deposition at sites with low and fairly constant GOM concentrations as reported by the Tekran® system (2–8pgm-3). When viewed collectively, trends in sampler and Tekran® derived data also suggest the potential for different forms of GOM in air. Using empirical and modeled values, dry deposition in Florida during the year of this study could account for 1.5 to 14% of total annual Hg deposition (wet+dry). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Personal road transport sector poses a significant challenge in reducing carbon emissions. This paper evaluates a policy approach known as personal tradable carbon permits to reduce carbon emissions from personal vehicles. The policy is a downstream tradable permit where individuals are allocated carbon emission caps. The policy is qualitatively evaluated in the context of carbon taxes and some upstream tradable permit options. The biggest disadvantage of such a policy is the initial set up costs. Personal tradable permits, however, are more effective than carbon taxes and are also capable of stabilizing the gasoline prices faced by the consumers when the underlying oil prices fluctuate. Since equity effects are often a concern to policy makers, the effect of such personal carbon permits on the distribution of burden is quantified in a partial equilibrium framework for the US population. Different permit allocation strategies are investigated in this regard. Using US consumer expenditure survey data, and incorporating a differentiated price response for different households, we find that all three allocation strategies considered are progressive: a per adult based allocation is the most progressive, a per vehicle allocation nearer to proportional, and a per capita allocation in between the two. Personal tradable permits therefore take care of equity concerns directly through the design of the policy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Efforts towards decarbonizing the energy system have to focus on individual actors within the system. Their current and potential future stake in energy consumption and contribution to climate change has to be analyzed when formulating energy policies targeting system-wide reduction efforts. Focusing on firms, this paper develops a framework for the assessment of corporate carbon performance. We use this framework for an empirical assessment of the 100 largest US electricity producers within three different carbon scenarios. Our results show that in a scenario without changes in the US institutional environment electricity producers will not face a severe increase of their carbon exposure and only a small improvement regarding the carbon intensity of the electricity mix is achieved. In a scenario with more carbon-constrained US energy market conditions some companies face a financial risk from using and emitting carbon that more than triples compared to today. However, in a scenario with strong investments in renewable energy technologies the carbon dependency of electricity production can be significantly reduced. We discuss these findings from a climate policy and financial markets perspective. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a probabilistic-based framework to assess the potential hurricane risks to residential construction under various wind speed change scenarios due to potential climate change. Every year hurricane (cyclone) hazards cause extensive economic losses and social disruption around the world. Annual hurricane damage in the United States (US) is around $6 billion in recent years. Hurricane intensity or/and frequency may change due to the increase in sea surface temperature as a result of climate change. Implications of the changing hazard patterns on hurricane risk assessment warrants an investigation to evaluate the potential impact of climate change. The framework includes probabilistic models of hurricane occurrence and intensity and conditional damage state probabilities (vulnerability model) for typical residential construction in the US, and an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of various climate change adaptation strategies. A case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida is presented to illustrate the framework under various scenarios of change in maximum annual wind speed over 50years. Demographic information, such as median house value and changes in house numbers, and distribution of houses on different exposure, is used to estimate the time-dependent probable damage with or without possible climate change induced change in wind speed. This study shows that climate change may have a substantial impact on the damage and loss estimation in coastal areas, and that certain adaptation strategies can cost effectively decrease the damage, even if the wind speed does not change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a quantitative analysis of megafloral changes in composition and diversity using collections of early and middle Paleocene floras (65.51 to~58Ma) in the Williston Basin of North Dakota, USA. Based on the floral composition and stratigraphic ranges of taxa, the Williston Basin floral record can be subdivided into three megafloral zones (WBI, WBII, and WBIII), each representing≥1myr. The floral record of the basin implies that local and regional paleoenvironmental and climatic changes contributed to transitions in the early and middle Paleocene plant communities. The Williston Basin floral record documents a decrease in species richness that mirrors a decrease in mean annual temperatures from the latest Cretaceous to middle Paleocene. These results, combined with previous work from the Hanna and Bighorn Basins, suggest that climate may have played an important role in patterns of floral diversity and plant community composition. Further, these data indicate that it took Paleocene plant communities in the Northern Great Plains millions of years to reach diversity levels common in the Cretaceous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper compares spatial and seasonal variations and temporal trends in modeled and measured concentrations of sulfur and nitrogen compounds in wet and dry deposition over an 18-year period (1988–2005) over a portion of the northeastern United States. Substantial emissions reduction programs occurred over this time period, including Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 which primarily resulted in large decreases in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions by 1995, and nitrogen oxide (NOx) trading programs which resulted in large decreases in warm season NOx emissions by 2004. Additionally, NOx emissions from mobile sources declined more gradually over this period. The results presented here illustrate the use of both operational and dynamic model evaluation and suggest that the modeling system largely captures the seasonal and long-term changes in sulfur compounds. The modeling system generally captures the long-term trends in nitrogen compounds, but does not reproduce the average seasonal variation or spatial patterns in nitrate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The amount of soil water at the beginning of the growing season has a large impact on crop yields in rainfed agriculture, especially in semi-arid regions and in years with below-average rainfall in more humid climates. Robust algorithms are needed to estimate soil water storage before planting to aid crop management decisions. The main objectives of this paper are to investigate soil water recharge during the non-growing season (October 20 to May 1) in a semi-arid, temperate ecosystem in south-central Nebraska (USA) and to evaluate empirical models to estimate soil water content at the beginning of the summer-crop growing season. A database of soil water content measurements collected over 5 years at nine locations in south-central Nebraska was used to estimate available water-holding limits in the soil profile and to determine the change in available soil water during the non-growing season. Regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationship among soil water recharge, residual soil water (i.e., soil water content at the end of the previous growing season), total precipitation, and available water-holding capacity (AWHC) in the root zone to 1.5m. Precipitation storage efficiency (PSE) was calculated as the quotient of soil water recharge and total non-growing season precipitation. Predictive models to estimate soil water content at the beginning of summer-crop growing season were derived from these analyses. A large portion of the variation in soil water recharge was explained by residual soil water and precipitation. PSE averaged 28% across site-years; low PSE values were associated with high residual soil water and/or low AWHC. Two predictive models (linear and linear-plateau) that used residual soil water, total precipitation, and AWHC as independent variables explained 75–80% of the variation in the measured soil water content at the beginning of the summer-crop growing season. These empirical models represent a new tool to estimate soil water content by planting date of summer crops. Site-management conditions such as residue amount and its architecture, tillage system, soil texture, and terrain slope are not currently accounted for in these models and would likely improve predictive capacity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This work focuses on the efforts being made by King County, Washington to respond to the challenges of global climate change, concentrating on both mitigation and adaptation. King County is a leader in the United States in the development and implementation of meaningful climate change efforts in local government. The county, in conjunction with ICLEI, recently produced a workbook on Preparing for Climate Change at the Local, Regional, and State levels. While the vast majority of local governments in the United States have only taken limited steps to respond to global warming, King County stands out as aggressively looking to move in a new direction. The King County Climate Plan is based on the conviction that climate change is both a problem and an opportunity for communities to improve environmental quality through mitigation of greenhouse gases and simultaneously build resilience to adapt to global climate change. Its exceptional combination of responsibilities in planning and opportunities makes this an invaluable experience to other local governments throughout the world. The work to be presented is a case study that examines the underlying issues and challenges faced by this jurisdiction in adopting its climate change plan; the development and adoption of the plan; issues associated with monitoring and sustaining these efforts; and the broader challenges of building more resilient and adaptive communities. The case study will focus both on procedural issues, as well as, on the types of mitigation and adaptive responses. One aspect of the paper will examine King County''s efforts to link climate change efforts/policy/plans to other critical community concerns (e.g., issues of equity and race), and to the economic opportunities that have become critical motivators to successfully as moving forward the county attempts to establish itself as a global leader in meeting the challenges of global climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]