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This paper is the second in a two-part series on the concavity-convexity of the distribution system security region (DSSR). In Part I, the concave-convex characteristics and mechanism of DSSR are revealed by observing many case grids. In Part II (this paper), the concave-convex principle of DSSR is revealed through mathematical deduction. Firstly, the relevant concepts of sub-regions are proposed, and a DSSR model based on the union of sub-regions is developed. Secondly, the concave-convex principle of DSSR is proposed. The proposed criteria show that the security region of a distribution system with a single load transfer path for each feeder is convex, while that with multiple load transfer paths for some feeders can be concave or convex. Thirdly, the proposed criteria are deduced mathematically. Fourthly, based on the criteria, a method is proposed to judge whether a DSSR is concave or convex. Fifthly, the proposed criteria and method are verified through several cases, and the DSSR concavity-convexity of real distribution systems in China is also analyzed. Finally, the applications of DSSR concavity-convexity are illustrated. This work lays a mathematical foundation for the research of the topological properties of DSSR and is also useful for the application of DSSR. • The DSSR mathematical model based on the union of sub-regions is developed. • Three criteria are proposed and proved, revealing the concave-convex principle of DSSR. • A judgment method for DSSR concavity-convexity is proposed based on these criteria. • The DSSR concavity-convexity of real distribution systems in China is analyzed. • The application values of DSSR concavity-convexity are demonstrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper searches for a deployment method with minimum sensor nodes to achieve agricultural intelligent monitoring. Because of the various features, topographies and complicated weather conditions, the selection of the location for deploying sensor nodes is difficult, especially in hilly areas. This paper puts forward a sensor node deployment algorithm for agricultural intelligent monitoring based on an optimized theory. It first develops a mathematical model for the node location selection. During the solution process, the features of the locations are of primary concern, as a location with more features is easier to choose than other locations. Next, a theoretical analysis and experimental simulation are carried out. Finally, OASNDFA is used in 3000 mu orange orchards in China. The result demonstrates that OASNDFA could perform relevant monitoring tasks with fewer monitoring nodes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To stop cheating behaviors in the online game, game providers have taken various measures, especially the anti-cheating system (ACS), but cheating behaviors are still endless. From the perspective of information interaction, this paper aims to analyze how to effectively persuade gamers to give up cheating. In academic literature, ELM and signaling theory are mainly used for information interaction. Signaling theory provides a relatively concrete framework for information transmission, and ELM explains information processing in the receiver's perception. For maximizing their benefits, we propose a united persuasion model that signals (technical advantage, attitude of game providers, perceived risk, source credibility, and critical mass) and personal factors (self-efficacy, personal engagement, and positive cheating attitude) are regarded to affect gamer's intention to stop cheating. Based on data collected from 248 gamers who have held the intention to cheat once in China, the result reveals technical advantage cannot give significant influence on intention to stop cheating, which answers why current ACS cannot work as expected. Interestingly, intention to stop cheating is negatively influenced by the attitude of game provider, indicating coercive measures may cause a gamer's psychological reactance. Result also suggests personal factors significantly affect the intention to stop cheating. Our study helps game providers effectively persuade gamers to give up cheating, and also provides directions for future information interaction-related studies. • Anti-cheating technical advantage may not decrease cheating intention. • Attitude of game provider negatively affects intention to stop cheating. • Gamers prefer using simple information to decide whether to stop cheating or not. • Personal factors significantly influence the intention to stop cheating behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the premature failure of the integral droppers in high speed railway catenary in China was investigated. Series of microscopic characterization and analysis were conducted to identify the root causes of the unexpected failure. By numerically simulating the existing crimping behavior, distribution of the contact stress in the dropper was obtained. It was found that there was stress concentration at the dropper sliced end, which became the primary reason for the permanent distortion and damage on the droppers, and consequently resulted in the untimely final fracture with bending fretting fatigue acting. Through the failure analysis and numerical simulation, a scheme of the improvements in measuring the existing crimping was brought up. Meanwhile, a plan was also put forward to change the current crimping model and reduce the depth of indentation of clamp tube. Static tensile tests and bending fretting fatigue tests were carried out to evaluate the optional plans, which would help extend the service life of integral dropper in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On-demand meal ordering on high-speed railway is an emerging on-demand service that is becoming increasingly popular. One key challenge about this service is how to design the ordering system to maximize profits while guaranteeing timely delivery. However, few related studies have been done for this new business. In this paper, we first develop a mathematical model to optimize the existing ordering procedure, which sets a deadline for order placement. Furthermore, we propose a pre-ordering policy which cancels the order deadline but ensures timely delivery via stocking up. Considering the ambiguity in demand distributions and uncertainty in delivery time, we develop distributionally robust stochastic optimization models for both the existing and the pre-ordering procedures. Cutting-plane algorithms are developed to solve the proposed models. Computational studies on a real-world high-speed railway line in China show that our proposed new policy could simultaneously increase service availability, improve the profit, and reduce delay rate. • Optimize current meal ordering procedure by finding the best order placing deadline. • Propose a novel preordering policy for railway on-demand meal ordering service. • Improve system revenues, service availability and delivery performance. • Develop distributionally robust stochastic programming models. • Consider ambiguity in demands and randomness in delivery time. • Develop cutting-plane algorithms to solve reformulated models efficiently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Nineteen studies were identified that modelled S. japonicum control strategies. • Mathematical models of S. Japonicum have shifted towards the prevalence-based multi-host model. • Few mathematical models of S. Japonicum have considered other definitive hosts and seasonal fluctuations with mixed results. • Mathematical models have generally agreed on the inability of human treatment alone to reach elimination of S. Japonicum. • Few modelling studies have considered S. Japonicum in the Philippines. Schistosoma japonicum remains endemic in China and the Philippines. Substantial progress has been made in the control of Japonicum in both China and the Philippines. China is reaching elimination thanks to a concerted effort of control strategies. Mathematical modelling has been a key tool in the design of control strategies, in place of expensive randomised-controlled trials. We conducted a systematic review to investigate mathematical models of Japonicum control strategies in China and the Philippines. We conducted a systematic review on July 5, 2020, in four electronic bibliographic databases - PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS and Embase. Articles were screened for relevance and for meeting the inclusion criteria. Data extracted included authors, year of publication, year of data collection, setting and ecological context, objectives, control strategies, main findings, the form and content of the model including its background, type, representation of population dynamics, heterogeneity of hosts, simulation period, source of parameters, model validation and sensitivity analysis. Results After screening, 19 eligible papers were included in the systematic review. Seventeen considered control strategies in China and two in the Philippines. Two frameworks were identified; the mean-worm burden framework and the prevalence-based framework, the latter of which increasingly common. Most models considered human and bovine definitive hosts. There were mixed additional elements included in the models, such as alternative definitive hosts and the role of seasonality and weather. Models generally agreed upon the need for an integrated control strategy rather than reliance on mass drug administration alone to sustain reductions in prevalence. Mathematical modelling of Japonicum has converged from multiple approaches to modelling using the prevalence-based framework with human and bovine definitive hosts and find integrated control strategies to be most effective. Further research could investigate the role of other definitive hosts and model the effect of seasonal fluctuations in transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CSI 800 index consists of CSI 500 index and CSI 300 index, aiming to reflect the performance of stocks with large, mid and small size of China A share market. In this paper we analyze the multifractal structure of Chinese stock market in the CSI 800 index based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. We find that the fluctuation of the closing logarithmic returns have multifractal properties, the shape and width of multifractal spectrum are depended on the weighing order q . More interestingly, we observe a bigger market crash in June–August 2015 than the one in 2008 based on the local Hurst exponents. The result provides important information for further study on dynamic mechanism of return fluctuation and whether it would trigger a new financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With rapid development of financial services and products, credit risk assessment has recently gained considerable attention in the field of financial risk management. In this paper, an improved credit risk assessment approach is presented. Based on the credit data from China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), a multi-dimensional and multi-level credit risk indicator system is constructed. In particular, we present an improved sequential minimal optimization (SMO) learning algorithm, named four-variable SMO (FV-SMO), for credit risk classification model. At each iteration, it jointly selects four variables into the working set and an theorem is proposed to guarantee the analytical solution of sub-problem. The assessment is made on China credit dataset and two benchmark credit datasets from UCI database and CD-ROM database. Experimental results demonstrate FV-SMO is competitive in saving the computational cost and outperforms other five state-of-the-art classification methods in credit risk assessment accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of the sharing economy, outsourcing logistics operations to third party logistics has become an efficient way of reducing costs in freight transportation. It can be modeled as a variant of the open vehicle routing problem (OVRP), where the vehicles do not return to the depot after servicing customers. However, very few papers have studied fuel consumption in the context of third party logistics. In this work, the mathematical model of the green open vehicle routing problem with time windows (GOVRPTW) was described based on the comprehensive modal emission model (CMEM). A hybrid tabu search algorithm involving several neighborhood search strategies was designed to solve this problem. Computational experiments were performed on realistic instances based on the real road conditions of Beijing, China. The effect of empty kilometers is analyzed through comparing different cost components. Compared with closed routes, the open routes reduced the total cost by 20% with both the fuel emissions costs and the CO 2 emissions cost down by nearly 30%. For the experiments with congested nodes, the fuel and emissions cost rose by 12.3%, and the driver cost even increased by 31.3%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding spatiotemporal urbanization is one of the key questions related to sustainable urbanization in the drylands of northern China (DNC). However, urban expansion in the DNC has not been quantified and assessed effectively due to a lack of reliable data and methods. In this paper, we investigate urban expansion in the DNC at multiple scales, ranging from the whole region to four dryland subtypes, and six urban agglomerations in the DNC from 1992 to 2015. We also simulate urban expansion in the DNC from 2015 to 2050 by coupling the scenario framework of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with the Land Use Scenario Dynamics-urban (LUSD-urban) model. Despite of the uncertainty in the research, our findings provide useful insight into the past and the future urban expansion in the DNC. The results indicate that the urban land in the DNC expanded rapidly from 4110 km 2 in 1992 to 20,969 km 2 in 2015. Furthermore, the urban land in the DNC will continue to expand from 20,969 km 2 to 22,987–36,622 km 2 by 2040, with an annual growth of 80.72–403.48 km 2 under all SSPs. Thus, it is suggested that effective measures are urgently needed to facilitate sustainable urban development in the DNC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Loess shoulder-lines are the most critical terrain feature in representing and modeling the landforms of the Loess Plateau of China. Existing algorithms usually fail in obtaining a continuous shoulder-line for complicated surface, DEM quality and algorithm limitation. This paper proposes a new method, by which gradient vector flow (GVF) snake model is employed to generate an integrated contour which could connect the discontinuous fragments of shoulder-line. Moreover, a new criterion for the selection of initial seeds is created for the snake model, which takes the value of median smoothing of the local neighborhood regions. By doing this, we can extract the adjacent boundary of loess positive–negative terrains from the shoulder-line zones, which build a basis to found the real shoulder-lines by the gradient vector flow. However, the computational burden of this method remains heavy for large DEM dataset. In this study, a parallel computing scheme of the cluster for automatic shoulder-line extraction is proposed and implemented with a parallel GVF snake model. After analyzing the principle of the method, the paper develops an effective parallel algorithm integrating both single program multiple data (SPMD) and master/slave (M/S) programming modes. Based on domain decomposition of DEM data, each partition is decomposed regularly and calculated simultaneously. The experimental results on different DEM datasets indicate that parallel programming can achieve the main objective of distinctly reducing execution time without losing accuracy compared with the sequential model. The hybrid algorithm in this study achieves a mean shoulder-line offset of 15.8m, a quite satisfied result in both accuracy and efficiency compared with published extraction methods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper aims to examine the impacts of sectoral price control policies on oil price pass-through into China''s aggregate price level. To that end, we develop a partial transmission input–output model that captures the uniqueness of the Chinese market. We hypothesize and simulate price control, market factors and technology substitution – the three main factors that restrict the functioning of a price pass-through mechanism during oil-price shocks. Using the models of both China and the US, we separate the impact of price control from that of other factors leading to China''s price stickiness under oil-price shocks. The results show a sharp contrast between China and the US, with price control in China significantly preventing oil-price shocks from spreading into its domestic inflation, especially in the short term. However, in order to strengthen the economy''s resilience to oil-price shocks, the paper suggests a gradual relaxing of price control in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In China, both the mountainous areas and the number of people who live in mountain areas occupy a significant proportion. When production accidents or natural disasters happen, the residents in mountain areas should be evacuated and the evacuation is of obvious importance to public safety. But it is a pity that there are few studies on safety evacuation in rough terrain. The particularity of the complex terrain in mountain areas, however, makes it difficult to study pedestrian evacuation. In this paper, a three-dimensional surface cellular automata model is proposed to numerically simulate the real time dynamic evacuation of residents. The model takes into account topographic characteristics (the slope gradient) of the environment and the biomechanics characteristics (weight and leg extensor power) of the residents to calculate the walking speed. This paper only focuses on the influence of topography and the physiological parameters are defined as constants according to a statistical report. Velocity varies with the topography. In order to simulate the behavior of a crowd with varying movement velocities, and a numerical algorithm is used to determine the time step of iteration. By doing so, a numerical simulation can be conducted in a 3D surface CA model. Moreover, considering residents evacuation around a gas well in a mountain area as a case, a visualization system for a three-dimensional simulation of pedestrian evacuation is developed. In the simulation process, population behaviors of congestion, queuing and collision avoidance can be observed. The simulation results are explained reasonably. Therefore, the model presented in this paper can realize a 3D dynamic simulation of pedestrian evacuation vividly in complex terrain and predict the evacuation procedure and evacuation time required, which can supply some valuable information for emergency management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper extends the IS continuance model to improve our understanding of the determinants of E2.0 post-adoption. Our proposed research model incorporates four constructs into the IS continuance model: firm size, firm scope, subjective norms and competitive pressure from the perspective of organizational and environmental context based on the TOE framework. Results from a survey of customers of Mingdao, a leading Enterprise 2.0 platform in China, support our model. The research findings show that organizational and environmental context factors, including subjective norms and competitive pressure, significantly influence enterprises' intentions to renew their E2.0 service in addition to technology perceptions. Perceived usefulness and satisfaction are no longer the strongest predicators of continuance usage in the context of enterprise systems. The theoretical and managerial implications of these results are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Construction and demolition waste (C&DW) is currently a worldwide issue, and the situation is the worst in China due to a rapid increase in the construction industry and the short life span of China's buildings. To create an opportunity out of this problem, comprehensive prevention measures and effective management strategies are urgently needed. One major gap in the literature of waste management is a lack of estimations on future C&DW generation. Therefore, this paper presents a forecasting procedure for C&DW in China that can forecast the quantity of each component in such waste. The proposed approach is based on a GM-SVR model that improves the forecasting effectiveness of the gray model (GM), which is achieved by adjusting the residual series by a support vector regression (SVR) method and a transition matrix that aims to estimate the discharge of each component in the C&DW. Through the proposed method, future C&DW volume are listed and analyzed containing their potential components and distribution in different provinces in China. Besides, model testing process provides mathematical evidence to validate the proposed model is an effective way to give future information of C&DW for policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Due to the unique concept of HTR-PM (High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor-Pebble Bed Module) design, Chinese nuclear authority has anticipated that HTR-PM will bring challenge to the present regulation. The pilot use of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) during HTR-PM design and safety review is deemed to be the necessary and efficient tool to tackle the problem, and is actively encouraged as indicated in the authority''s specific policy statement on HTR-PM project. The paper summarizes the policy statement to set up the base of PSA development and application activities. The up-to-date status of HTR-PM PSA development and the risk-informed application activities are introduced in this paper as the follow-up response to the policy statement. For open discussion, the paper hereafter puts forward several technical issues which have been encountered during HTR-PM PSA development. Since HTR-PM PSA development experience has the general conclusion that many of the PSA elements can be and have been implemented successfully by the traditional PSA techniques, only the issues which extra innovative efforts may be needed are highlighted in this paper. They are safety goal and risk metrics, PSA modeling framework for the non-water reactors, passive system reliability evaluation, initiating events frequencies and component reliability data estimation techniques for the new reactors and so on. The paper presents the way in which the encountered technical issues were or will be solved, although the proposed way may not be the ultimate best solution. The paper intends to express the standpoint that although the PSA of new reactor has the inherent weakness due to the insufficient information and larger data uncertainty, the problem of component reliability data is much less severe than people have conceived. The unique design conception and functional features of the reactors can influence the results more significantly than the component reliability data. What we are benefited from PSA is indeed the systematic way which PSA follows. This is more important especially for the new reactors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: During 2010 and 2011, China had been the largest producer of wind turbines in the world for two consecutive years. How China can transform from being the largest producer to being the strongest producer of wind turbines is currently a great concern in the industry. The purpose of this paper is to discuss this issue from the perspective of the international competitiveness of China''s wind turbine manufacturing industry. Firstly, the paper establishes a model for evaluating the international competitiveness of wind turbine manufacturing industry, which consists of five first-level indexes and 10 second-level indexes. Then, the paper uses these indexes to evaluate the international competitiveness of six leading wind turbine companies in the world—Vestas (Denmark), Gamesa (Germany), GE Wind (the USA), Nordex (Spain), Suzlon (India) and Sinovel (China). The result shows that the international competitiveness of the Chinese wind turbine company, Sinovel, ranked the fifth, lagging behind Vestas, Gamesa, GE Wind and Suzlon. Finally, the paper makes in-depth analysis on the major factors that hamper the international competitiveness of China''s wind turbine manufacturing industry and provides implications for future development of the industry. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In order to achieve the purpose of sealing water between adjacent jacked pipes in construction of long-distance and large-section tunnel, an innovative method called Freeze-Sealing Pipe Roof (FSPR) was applied to the Gongbei tunnel, which is a key part of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge in China. Since the pre-constructed jacking pipes provides great convenience for flexible placement of freezing tubes inside, it is crucial to study the temperature field of different freezing states. This paper first established a new mathematical model considering radial offset of jacking pipe according to the practical engineering, and then the analytical solution to steady-state temperature field was also derived. Moreover, temperature distribution of four typical cross-sections were analyzed to evaluate the freezing effect on different paths. Results show that the analytical results are in good agreement with the numerical results, and the quasi-double-circle freezing model can be well applied to the practical problem of radial offset. Soil between steel pipes will be lowered to a sufficiently low temperature and form a fairly reliable water-sealing curtain. By designing the radial offset between freezing tubes in solid and hollow pipes, the freezing effect can be better ensured. The conclusions have important guiding significance for design and construction of FSPR method in future projects. • Temperature field of a special double-circle-piped freezing model is solved analytically. • The boundary separation property of the harmonic equation is used to solve the heat conduction problem. • The accuracy of complex analytical expressions is verified by numerical simulation. • Water sealing effect of FSPR method considering radial offset of jacking pipes is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power demand in China has increased rapidly in the past decade, and it is projected to grow even further. To gain insights into how this demand growth could optimally be met, addressing regional differences such as resource distribution and power demand, is crucial. For long-term planning purposes, using a multi-regional mathematical model that divides China's power sector into regions overcomes the limitations of viewing as a single network. Reflecting how inter-regional power transmission could best be utilized is critical in understanding how flows between regions could be optimised. In this paper, a multi-regional model that reflects actual grid infrastructure with an objective function to maximize accumulated total profits gained by the power generation sector from 2013 to 2050 is proposed. A case study is provided to illustrate how inter-regional power transmission could influence the regional deployment of technologies under different policy scenarios. The results show that energy subsidies and national targets will remain important to the deployment of renewable energy in both the short and long term. In addition, potential downside implications of lower demand growth on the long-term prospects of long-distance inter-regional power transmission and options, such as more flexible electricity pricing mechanisms, to limit the effects are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Snow cover is a common and relatively stable land cover condition in winter for cold north regions in China. Snow cover has significant effects on water and heat transfers in frozen soil; it needs to be considered in the study of frozen soil water–heat coupled movements. On the basis of previous research results and physical process analysis of water and heat movements in snow cover and soil, a snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movements model is established in this paper. The numerical simulation was conducted by using a finite difference method. The results indicate that the simulated values have a similar trend to the measured values and the numerical simulation had big relative errors. However, the average absolute errors of the total and liquid moisture content in frozen soil were all less than 4%, and that of the frozen soil temperature was 1.37 °C. The errors of the numerical simulation were still within the acceptable range. Thus, the snow cover–soil union water–heat coupled movement model constructed in this paper is rational. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The suitability of the project delivery system (PDS) selected for a project greatly influences the efficiency to conduct a project. It is not an easy task to select an appropriate PDS as a large amount of ambiguous information exists. The paper aims to develop a PDS selection model to help owners to make a decision. The similar projects are identified through the similarity metrics between the target project to be predicted and those in the database. In addition, some of the indicator values are examined and modified through DEA-BND model, and then they are trained by ANN model to predict an appropriate PDS for the target project. A survey was conducted by postal questionnaire to empirically validate the reliability of the model in China. The indicator system for the selection of an appropriate PDS is established. Through the comparison of results predicted by different models, it is found that the PDS selection model developed in this paper can predict PDS precisely, and shows higher reliability than the ANN model. A PDS selection model is developed by inputting project-specific data, which proves to be more accurate and less dependent on experts’ judgment. Its practical application will benefit the owner’s decision making in the selection of the PDS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Human reliability analysis (HRA) is generally viewed as quite an important part in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). In this paper, a THERP+HCR HRA model is presented to model the operators’ post-accident behavior in Chinese nuclear power plants. The paper shows how the model is structured and how to consider and acquire the corresponding data, including HCR data modification and HRA event tree data. A case study is presented to make an illustration. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Summary: The rapid economic development has caused heavy pollution in the Pearl River Delta Region (PRDR) and neighboring regions. In order to investigate the polluted characteristics, a coupled modelling approach has been deployed and the study area in the Pear River Delta is divided into two modelling systems: a river network that is simulated by a 1D hydrodynamic and water quality model, and an estuary that is modelled by a 3D model. The 1D river network model is coupled with the 3D estuary model based on the mass conservation criteria. The hydrodynamic (HD) model is based on 1D hydrostatic shallow water equations, and is solved by the Alternating Direction Implicit Approach. The water quality (WQ) model component is based on advection–diffusion equations. Some physical and bio-chemical processes are included in the WQ model to address the water pollution problems by different pollution substances, in particular, to the chemical oxygen demand (COD). The water quality data of the main rivers from 2004 to 2007 were collected, processed and evaluated. Because no detailed water quality data in the river is available, the COD source pollution intensity in the water quality model is taking the pollutant load from the confluence of the main five outlets of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) for 1996–2007 as surrogate. The results show that the pollutants from the PRDR have a large impact on the quality of the Hong Kong seawater and much more serious in the wet season with high river discharge. An insight of the flow and transportation mechanism in the river and estuary system has been obtained through the paper, and a reliable basis to control water pollution of the Pearl River Delta is provided in this paper. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper describes the theoretical foundations and development of a multidimensional, water-focused, thematic indicator of rural poverty: The Water, Economy, Investment and Learning Assessment Indicator (WEILAI). The WEILAI approach was specifically designed for application in rural China, to support poverty alleviation project planning, monitoring and evaluation, as well as targeting and prioritization. WEILAI builds primarily on the basic needs framework of poverty alleviation, and on the methodological structure of the Water Poverty Index, to provide a proxy measure of an area's poverty by assessing eight key poverty sectors, with a strong focus on the components of water-poverty. The WEILAI approach was piloted and implemented in 534 households in China's mountainous southwest. This paper describes the indicator construction, weighting schemes, methodology, field sites, and statistical validation of the results. In addition, we discuss the results, feedback from in-country project staff, and the likely utility of the tool for project planning, monitoring and evaluation support. The paper concludes with a discussion of WEILAI's overall utility and ongoing development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the fluctuations of the Chinese Stock Index, and we study the statistical properties of HSI, DJI, IXIC and SP500 by comparison. According to the theory of artificial neural networks, a stochastic time effective function is introduced in the forecasting model of the indices in the present paper, which gives an improved neural network – the stochastic time effective neural network model. In this model, a promising data mining technique in machine learning has been proposed to uncover the predictive relationships of numerous financial and economic variables. We suppose that the investors decide their investment positions by analyzing the historical data on the stock market, and the historical data are given weights depending on their time, in detail, the nearer the time of the historical data is to the present, the stronger impact the data have on the predictive model, and we also introduce the Brownian motion in order to make the model have the effect of random movement while maintaining the original trend. In the last part of the paper, we test the forecasting performance of the model by using different volatility parameters and we show some results of the analysis for the fluctuations of the global stock indices using the model. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Land use change has significant impacts on hydrologic processes at the watershed level. This paper combines an empirical land use change model and an event-scale, rainfall-runoff model to quantify the impacts of potential land use change on the storm-runoff generation in the Xitiaoxi basin upstream of Taihu Lake watershed. The HEC–HMS rainfall-runoff model is calibrated and validated for 7 storm events in the study area, and the results show good consistency between the simulated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin with Nash–Sutcliff efficiency ranging from 75% to 95%. Then two future land use scenarios for the year 2050 are forecasted using the CLUE-s model based on the land use of 2002: (1) scenario A with an increase in urban area from 9.2% to 17% of the entire watershed and (2) scenario B with an increase from 9.2% to 14%. Finally, the calibrated HEC–HMS model is applied for these future land use scenarios under designed storms with different recurrence intervals to assess the potential land use impacts on the storm-runoff generation. The results indicate that the future land use scenarios are projected to increase the total runoff as well as the peak discharge, and that the magnitude of increment relates to the expansion rate of built-up area. In the case of rainstorms with recurrence intervals of 10, 50 and 100 years, the simulated peak discharges increase by 3.8%, 2.6% and 2.3% under scenario A, and by 2.8%, 1.9% and 1.7% under scenario B, respectively; while the total runoff is projected to increase by 4.7%, 3.4% and 3.0% under scenario A, and by 3.3%, 2.5% and 2.1% under scenario B. It can be concluded that the sensitivity of hydrologic response to land use change tends to increase as the recurrence interval of rainfall events decreases. Additionally, remarkable spatial variations of the land use changes and its impacts can be observed at the subbasin level, and the most sensitive subbasin is closeby the city. The results of this paper can provide useful support for land use planning and management, and the methods applied here have proved a useful tool for land use impact studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An extended Gebhart–Block model for large space buildings is proposed in this paper, which is used to predict the vertical temperature distribution of hybrid ventilation. Natural ventilation coupled with air-conditioning is described with a mathematical model. The indoor thermal environment formed by the air-conditioning and the natural ventilation can also be conducted for the potential analysis and optimal use of the natural ventilation. Experiments were carried out in an atrium building in Shanghai Research Institute of Building Sciences. This paper describes aforementioned model, and it is found that the calculation results implying this model agree well with the measurement data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Jacket platforms in the Bohai Gulf are often victims of random ice-induced vibrations. Their design originally did not account for dynamic ice loading on the jacket structures and significant ice-induced vibrations have been observed during winters. So it is urgent to find out as to how to consider the dynamic ice loading in the design stage of an ice-resistant jacket platform in the Bohai Gulf. In this paper, based on the state-of-art developments of dynamic ice load and ice–structure interaction, the authors proposed two different approaches to determine the short-term dynamic ice cases for dynamic analysis of ice-resistant jacket platform in the Bohai Gulf, named as the failure probability-based approach and the expected loss-based approach. Considering the variation of the ice environments and the variability of ice-resistant structure''s properties, the random ice spectrum and the pseudo-excitation method (PEM) are employed to improve the efficiency of the procedure. Through finite element method (FEM) modeling of the real ice-resistant jacket platforms in the Bohai Gulf, such as MSW, MUQ and NW, the characteristics of the two proposed approaches have been investigated and compared. This paper provides an open and universal framework to assist designers and owners for determining the short-term dynamic ice cases in the Bohai Gulf, in which more information can be considered in the procedure to update and modify the results if available. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper presents a nonlinear piecewise smooth dynamical system of the trajectory of deviated wells according to engineering background. An optimal control model is established and the necessary conditions for optimality are proved via maximum principle. The optimal control problem is solved by a revised Hooke–Jeeves algorithm. The uniform design technique has been incorporated into the revised Hooke–Jeeves algorithm to handle the multimodal function. Computer simulation is used for this paper, and the numerical example illustrates the validity and efficiency of the algorithm. The procedure demonstrates its advantages in practical applications in Liaohe Oil Field. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: With the start up of West–East Natural Gas Transmission Project, the construction of natural gas-pipeline will enter on a new era in China. The development tendency will be towards large-diameter, high-pressure and long-distance for natural gas-pipelines. Correspondingly, the life cycle cost of natural gas-pipeline networks is increasing gradually. The mainline system is a vital part of natural gas network systems. The investment required for the mainline system is enormous, usually accounting for 80% of the total investment for this system. In general, the investment required for a gas-pipeline depends on its operating parameters. Therefore, based on the characteristics of gas networks, optimization for investment becomes indispensable to gas networks design. A comprehensive and optimal mathematic model of a gas networks system is established in this paper which considers all the factors influencing the total investment of a gas networks system (e.g. pipe diameter, thickness, pressure, length, compression ratio, etc). From the standpoint of the characteristics of a model comprising both continuous and discrete variables, a new methodology, rank-optimization, is presented. On the basis of this model, a simple and visual high-pressure networks optimization program has been compiled. Furthermore, the developed optimization program has been applied to a practical project and the effects of operating parameters on the total investment have been analyzed. The simulation model in this paper is shown to be an effective method to solve optimization on mainline system in high-pressure gas networks. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• A bed-steadying discharge is proposed. • A flow-sediment model and an LSTM model are integrated. • The riverbed deformation is predicted. River morphology plays an important role in water environment and resources. The dominant discharge (Q D) is a crucial indicator for understanding river morphology and bed evolution under the impact of various interacting processes. At present, the identification of Q D mainly depends on the analysis of a large number of hydrological data derived from measuring stations, leading to difficulty in obtaining detailed Q D distributions along the study reach. In this paper, Q D is approximately expressed as the bed-steadying discharge (Q S) which is based on major factors of water level and sediment-carrying capacity. Subsequently, an integrated model combining a numerical fluid-flow and sediment model with a deep-learning algorithm is applied to analyze the changing process of the Q S. The flow and sediment transport processes are simulated by the calibrated mathematical model, which are then adopted as the input sequences for the long short-term memory (LSTM) module. The verification results of the established LSTM model show robustness and accuracy in predicting the flow and sediment transport processes under multi-stage incoming flow and sediment conditions. Furthermore, the proposed integrated model is applied to identify the detailed process of Q S in the Middle Huaihe River. Results show that the changing process of Q S along the study reach is characterized by a particular trend of "increase-decrease-rapid increase" due to natural changes and human activities. Additionally, the Q S agrees well with Q D at the hydrological station, showing that Q S can be applied as an approximation for Q D along the study reach. By analyzing longitudinal and transverse profiles, the rationality of using Q S as obtained by the newly presented model is demonstrated. Its temporal variation is also consistent with the cross-sectional changes for the specified stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A bed-steadying discharge is proposed. • A flow-sediment model and an LSTM model are integrated. • The riverbed deformation is predicted. River morphology plays an important role in water environment and resources. The dominant discharge (Q D) is a crucial indicator for understanding river morphology and bed evolution under the impact of various interacting processes. At present, the identification of Q D mainly depends on the analysis of a large number of hydrological data derived from measuring stations, leading to difficulty in obtaining detailed Q D distributions along the study reach. In this paper, Q D is approximately expressed as the bed-steadying discharge (Q S) which is based on major factors of water level and sediment-carrying capacity. Subsequently, an integrated model combining a numerical fluid-flow and sediment model with a deep-learning algorithm is applied to analyze the changing process of the Q S. The flow and sediment transport processes are simulated by the calibrated mathematical model, which are then adopted as the input sequences for the long short-term memory (LSTM) module. The verification results of the established LSTM model show robustness and accuracy in predicting the flow and sediment transport processes under multi-stage incoming flow and sediment conditions. Furthermore, the proposed integrated model is applied to identify the detailed process of Q S in the Middle Huaihe River. Results show that the changing process of Q S along the study reach is characterized by a particular trend of "increase-decrease-rapid increase" due to natural changes and human activities. Additionally, the Q S agrees well with Q D at the hydrological station, showing that Q S can be applied as an approximation for Q D along the study reach. By analyzing longitudinal and transverse profiles, the rationality of using Q S as obtained by the newly presented model is demonstrated. Its temporal variation is also consistent with the cross-sectional changes for the specified stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Waste sorting is an imperative and significant issue in China, of which sorted-waste collection and transportation are indispensable parts. Despite its vital yet practical significance, few studies research mathematical models or algorithms of waste collection and transportation from the perspective of waste sorting. To address this issue, we extend a novel transportation model for the waste management system, namely, capacitated location routing problem with queuing time (CLRPQT) and design a cross-entropy and simulated-annealing based hyper-heuristic algorithm (CE-SAHH) for it. The main idea of this paper is three-fold: (1) As a particular property of this problem, source nodes cannot but need to be served by more than one vehicle that causes queuing time between a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, which is novel in terms of the proposed model; (2) For the methodological contribution, a character encoding scheme, new decoding procedure, and local search strategy are designed embedded in the proposed method; (3) An integration of simulated annealing strategy and the cross-entropy-based hyper-heuristic algorithm is developed to overcome the combinatorial optimization problem with a more complex solution of this study. Finally, the results and analysis of three numeric experiments on benchmark datasets, new instances of CLRPQT, and simulation data in Shanghai, China, verify the effectiveness and universality of the proposed model and method. • A novel model with interactional routes for sorted-waste transportation is proposed. • A cross-entropy-based hyper-heuristic algorithm is proposed and performs well. • The novel model and method based on sorted waste enrich the waste management system. • Real-life data is used to verify the method and some managerial insights are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since there is an increasing demand for integrating landscape ecology and urban planning theories to study complex urban ecosystems and establish rational and ecological urban planning, we introduced a new concept-urban functional landscapes which can be reclassified based on detailed land use data to fulfill the various urban functions, such as residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure purposes. In this paper, urban functional landscapes were defined based on urban land use data produced from Pleiades images, and then landscape metrics and population density were combined to identify the urban functional zones along an urban–rural gradient. The features of urban functional landscape patterns and population density were also analyzed, and their relationship has been explored. The results showed that the pattern of urban functional landscapes and population density in the urban functional zones (Urban center, Urban peripheral area, Landscape barrier, Satellite city and Far-suburb) along the urban–rural gradient in Xiamen doesn't totally conform to the classical theories in spatial and social aspects. Urban functional landscapes is potential of acting as bridges between the landscape ecology and urban planning theories, providing scientific support for rational urban landscape planning and urban land use policy making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hybrid ground-coupled heat pump (HGCHP) systems with supplemental heat rejecter/supplier can effectively solve heat imbalance problems in the subsurface, and consequently improve the operation performance of the geothermal systems. For example, solar energy and/or industrial waste heat may be used as stable heat sources for underground heat storage in northern China with higher heating load, and cooling towers are installed to release heat into the air in southern China, where more cooling demand is needed. This paper reviews and discusses different HGCHP systems, which have been applied in China. And based on the heat transfer model of vertical borehole heat exchangers (BHE) for HGCHP systems, physical and mathematical models of multistage series circuits are developed to illustrate the heat transfer process of the underground thermal storage. A set of parameters, such as borehole spacing, heat recharging rate fractions and thermal properties of soils, which affect the thermal performance of the ground heat exchangers are analyzed, and the optimal solutions are discussed for engineering application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intra-continental volcanoes have different origins compared to arc volcanoes, and several conflicting geodynamic mechanisms of intra-continental magmatism have been proposed, which require quantitative testing. In this paper, we investigate numerically possible influences of deep subducted slab dehydration processes for the development of intra-continental volcanoes distributed in northeastern China. We employ 2D thermo-mechanical numerical models to investigate the complex dynamics of long-term subduction process, including slab interaction with mantle transition zone, deep oceanic plate dehydration, trench rollback, and back-arc extension. Our experiments show systematically that water can be transported to the transition zone by stagnant slabs hydrating the overlaying deep asthenospheric mantle. Positively buoyant partially molten hydrous plumes arising from the hydrated area formed atop the slabs can propagate upwards and form partially molten mantle regions under the far field continental plate. Our numerical models thus suggest that the development of widely distributed intra-continental volcanism in northeastern China could be related to the rising of multiple relatively small hydrous plumes triggered by stagnant paleo-Pacific slab dehydration in the transition zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the recent decades, China’s building energy consumption has been growing rapidly. Also the fuel mix has been changing quickly with more natural gas & electricity and less coal being used. Meanwhile, the technologies used in building sector are improving in efficiency. In this paper, the impact of technical progress and the use of renewable energy in building sector are analyzed. The energy saving and emission reduction potential of building sector are also measured. China TIMES model is used to model the future energy consumption and carbon emissions in building sector. The modelling results indicate that building energy consumption is expected to grow to around 41.6EJ in the reference scenario in 2050. The energy saving potential in 2050 can be up to 4EJ due to the improvement of both building insulation (envelop) and energy use technologies. Renewable energy used in buildings can be a great contributor to the carbon mitigation in buildings. China’s building sector can reach a relatively low-carbon future with more low- and non-carbon fuels consumed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bus transport networks are directed complex networks that consist of routes, stations, and passenger flow. In this study, the concept of duplication factor is introduced to analyze the differences between uplinks and downlinks for the bus transport network of Harbin (BTN-H). Further, a new representation model for BTNs is proposed, named as directed-space P. Two empirical characteristics of BTN-H are reported in this paper. First, the cumulative distributions of weighted degree, degree, number of routes that connect to each station, and node weight (peak-hour trips at a station) uniformly follow the exponential law. Meanwhile, the node weight shows positive correlations with the corresponding weighted degree, degree, and number of routes that connect to a station. Second, a new richness parameter of a node is explored by its node weight and the connectivity, weighted connectivity, average shortest path length and efficiency between rich nodes can be fitted by composite exponential functions to demonstrate the rich-club phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates a modeling procedure of mineral potential mapping based on singularity theory, and further presents an idea to look into metallogeny of Sn–Cu polymetallic deposits in southeastern Yunnan mineral district, China by applying a localized regression method. Mineralization is a typical cascade process generally accompanied by irregular geological, geochemical and geophysical signatures. Singularity index as an efficient anomaly analytical tool helps to identify anomalies as well as characterize formation processes of these anomalies. In this study, the singularity-based mineral potential mapping method was utilized to characterize hydrothermal mineralization associated with magmatic, tectonic and sedimentary processes in this district. Based on the results, a mineral prospectivity model was constructed to delineate target areas. In addition to mineral prospectivity, controlling effects of geo-processes on mineralization are spatially non-stationary. Geographically-weighted regression analysis was thus employed to investigate these spatially-varied controlling effects and it has contributed to improve understanding to local metallogeny in the study area. Results of the spatial analysis presented can be used to guide following stages of mineral exploration in the district. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the rural area of northern China, residents often use a traditional stove-Kang system to heat their homes, which is an effective way of using locally-produced biomass to solve the energy and environment problems. However, many of these homes are not heated sufficiently during the winter months. The current system is inefficient and requires high levels of fuel consumption. This paper researches the Kang system by creating a simplified and modular system modeling program with the aim to assist in accurate real-time design and optimization of the domestic Kang heating system. This part-1 introduces the structure, principles and the underlying equations of the modular simulation system. A variety of improvement measures were modeled and tested, upon the base model, including the use of a water heat exchanger and radiator system to the existing Kang set up, solar hot water system, bathing system, and the use of phase change material at the surface of the Kang. The program demonstrates good flexibility of implementing different technical solutions as well as fast simulation capability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposed a COSM (cost-optimization superstructure model) and derived the optimized oil-saving pathways for road freight transportation in China until 2030. The optimization target of the COSM was to minimize the accumulated energy and vehicle costs from 2010 to 2030 by choosing the most cost-effective fuel option for newly registered trucks each year. Based on the COSM, three scenarios were developed to evaluate the oil-saving pathway in terms of imported crude oil price, available alternative fuels and GHG emission reduction. The scenario analysis results indicate that: (1) for scenario A, the accumulated oil-saving potential was approximately about 13%, while the oil-saving potential of improving fuel consumption rate and load running rate was 17% and 16%; (2) for scenario B, the accumulated oil-saving potential increased to 82% in reference oil price and 23% in low oil price; (3) for scenario C, to reduce per ton of GHG emission, the increased cost will increase from 34 USD to 450 USD when the GHG emission target decreased from 15.4 billion tons to the turn point of 13.5 billion tons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a tobacco victimized country in the world, China is being burdened by smoking-related illnesses. This paper concentrates on the problem of controlling smoking in China. We propose a mathematical model described by ordinary differential equations with a saturated incidence rate to explore the effect of controlling smoking by setting up designed smoking areas and raising the price of cigarettes. The sufficient criteria for the local and global stabilities of the equilibria are obtained. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis is performed to gain insight into which factors are the most important in controlling smoking. Lastly, we carry out numerical simulations to illustrate and verify the analytic conclusions, and provide a control measure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global imbalances pose a serious question for academia and policy makers related to its formation, sustainability and correction. In this paper we analyze the required adjustments of exchange rates for rebalancing in current accounts. We set up a two-country two-sector model for the US-China with two asymmetries. First, we assume that the size of China initially is one third of the US but its size becomes half in the next 10 years. Second, we assume that China initially runs a net export surplus. Then we quantitatively study two adjustment scenarios. First scenario, called Slow Adjustment, assumes that in the process of growth, Chinese demand composition moves more towards domestic non-tradable sector. In this case, Chinese real exchange rate appreciates gradually and net export surplus decreases slowly. Second scenario, called Quick Adjustment, assumes that net export surplus against US goes to zero quickly in five years. In this case, net export adjustment happens quickly and real exchange rates in China appreciate at a higher rate. Even though, global imbalances are eliminated faster in the Quick Adjustment case, high real appreciation in China hurts importers in the US. A comparison in terms of output shows that Slow Adjustments is preferred for both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The intermittent characteristic of a solar-alone or a wind-alone power generation system prevents the standalone renewable energy system from being fully reliable without suitable energy storage capability. In this study, the most traditional and mature storage technology, pumped hydro storage (PHS), is introduced to support the standalone microgrid hybrid solar-wind system. This paper explores a new solution for the challenging task about energy storage. A mathematical model of the hybrid system is developed and the operating principle is introduced. The proposed system is applied in a case study to power a remote island in Hong Kong, and its technical feasibility is then examined. The hour-by-hour simulation results indicate that the intermittent nature of the renewables can be compensated by introducing the PHS technology. Therefore, a reliable and environmentally friendly power supply can be provided. The results demonstrate that technically the PHS based renewable energy system is an ideal solution to achieve 100% energy autonomy in remote communities. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Safety culture and its assessment were primarily required for the ONPP. • MCDA (Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis) was adopted for assessing nuclear safety culture. • An assessment index and model for the nuclear safety culture were implemented. • FTOPSIS method was applied to arrange different positions. • Present research could benefit the safety culture constructions of the ONPP. The health and safety of an operating nuclear power plant (NPP/ONPP) is its important objective and task, which is usually accomplished by strengthening nuclear safety culture (NSC). With the objective to establishing an effective system of NSC assessment (NSCA) index, the present paper adopts the method of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and constructs a NSCA model in order to rank the NSC level of different job positions. It first of all applies a combination of fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL) and fuzzy network analytic process (FNAP) to determine the weights of the different indexes of the NSC, on the basis of which the NSC level of the selected seven job positions of an ONPP is ranked by employing the fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method. The results thus obtained demonstrate that the safety culture level of general manager was the highest, whereas that level of field operator was the lowest. In addition, it was necessary to systematically strengthen employee responsibility awareness and scientific management decision-making process. In brief, the present research and procedure could facilitate the establishment of a healthy safety culture, and effectively improve organizational safety culture and become a bulwark against safety accidents in the ONPP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Recently numerous studies have applied complex network based models to study the performance and vulnerability of infrastructure systems under various types of attacks and hazards. But how effective are these models to capture their real performance response is still a question worthy of research. Taking the Chinese railway system as an example, this paper selects three typical complex network based models, including purely topological model (PTM), purely shortest path model (PSPM), and weight (link length) based shortest path model (WBSPM), to analyze railway accessibility and flow-based vulnerability and compare their results with those from the real train flow model (RTFM). The results show that the WBSPM can produce the train routines with 83% stations and 77% railway links identical to the real routines and can approach the RTFM the best for railway vulnerability under both single and multiple component failures. The correlation coefficient for accessibility vulnerability from WBSPM and RTFM under single station failures is 0.96 while it is 0.92 for flow-based vulnerability; under multiple station failures, where each station has the same failure probability fp, the WBSPM can produce almost identical vulnerability results with those from the RTFM under almost all failures scenarios when fp is larger than 0.62 for accessibility vulnerability and 0.86 for flow-based vulnerability. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper examines the contrast between China's and India's universal service policies as manifestations of the two states' differing self-conceptualizations and legitimation strategies. We examine the timeline of universal service policies in the two countries, differentiating between the territorial, demographic and layered dimensions of universal service. The analysis reveals many similarities between the two countries, as well as some differences primarily related to the mode of funding universal service programs and the lead China has taken in deploying informatization services. We identify some of the proximate causes that resulted in these policy decisions. But in addition, we also examine how universal service policies are related to contrasting models of state legitimation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In China, the energy pricing mechanism has an insufficient linkage with other energy prices. As a result of the unreasonable price level, it is impossible to exploit fully the substitution elasticity among energy resources and there is a negative impact on achieving energy conservation and energy efficiency. This paper proposes an optimized mechanism for residential energy prices in China, which maximizes the total social surplus subject to some related constraints. Three types of energy pricing mechanisms are designed based on China's low-carbon targets and the optimization of residential energy price policies through the dynamic CGE model. Compared with the energy price linkage method, the results show that the market netback value mechanism has a greater impact on the total social surplus. In order to achieve further low-carbon targets, the proportion of second and third tier residents can be expanded, while the energy prices could be deregulated to some degree. In addition, considering residential affordability, the government may take into account different electricity pricing mechanisms for different tiers of residents. Electricity pricing for the first tier, the second tier and the third tier should be based respectively on cost, the integration of energy price linkage and the market netback value mechanism. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]