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Abstract: To find the key impact factors of CO2 emissions to realize the carbon intensity target, this paper examined the impact factors of population, economic level, technology level, urbanization level, industrialization level, service level, energy consumption structure and foreign trade degree on the energy-related CO2 emissions in Guangdong Province, China from 1980 to 2010 using an extended STIRPAT model. We employed ridge regression to fit the extended STIRPAT model. Empirical results indicate that factors such as population, urbanization level, GDP per capita, industrialization level and service level, can cause an increase in CO2 emissions. However, technology level, energy consumption structure and foreign trade degree can lead to a decrease in CO2 emissions. The estimated elastic coefficients suggest that population is the most important impact factor of CO2 emissions. Industrialization level, urbanization level, energy consumption structure, service level and GDP per capita are also significant impact factors, but the other factors such as technology level and foreign trade degree are less important impact factors. Some policy recommendations are also given on how to mitigate the growth of CO2 emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Flood disasters are one of the most common and destructive natural hazards all over the world. In this paper, improved interior-outer-set model (IIOSM) based on information diffusion theory is introduced in detail to assess flood risk in an effort to obtain accurate analytical results that represent the actual situation. Then fuzzy α-cut technique is applied to calculate the fuzzy expected values under the possibility–probability distribution (PPD) calculated by IIOSM. Taking the value of α throughout the interval (0,1], we correspondingly get access to the conservative risk value (R C ) and venture risk value (R V ). Selection of α, R C and R V is dependent on present technical conditions and risk preference of different people. To illustrate the procedure of IIOSM and fuzzy α-cut technique, we employ them respectively to analyze the flood risk in Sanshui District, located in the center of Guangdong province in China. The results, such as risk value estimations, as well as fuzzy expected values, i.e. R C and R V under the given α-cut level, can reflect the flood risk quite accurately. The outcomes of this research based on IIOSM and fuzzy α-cut technique offer new insights to carry out an efficient way for various flood protection strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The propulsion of the winter counter-wind current in the northern South China Sea (SCS) is investigated with a regional, three-dimensional, primitive equation model. This current is usually called the SCS Warm Current (SCSWC). Model results well reproduced the banded structure of the Guangdong coastal current, the SCSWC and the slope current from the coast to the slope in the northern SCS in the climatological data. The across-shelf flow is active in the shelf break area. Both onshore and offshore flows exist; the net across-shelf transport is shoreward throughout the year, and is larger in winter than in other seasons. The joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) is the dominant forcing of the across-shelf transport in the shelf break area. The major mass source of the SCSWC is the onshore-veered slope current. It is the JEBAR effect that supplies the necessary negative vorticity to maintain the slope current flowing across the isobaths and veering to the right hand to feed the SCSWC. Analyses of the momentum fields indicate that the onshore pressure gradient in the outer shelf balances the Coriolis force induced by the northeastward SCSWC in the frame of geostrophy. In winter, such an onshore pressure gradient is mainly provided by the strong density contrast between waters of the shelf and of the upper slope, which results from the Kuroshio intrusion via the Luzon Strait. The notable intrusion of the Kuroshio in winter is crucial for maintaining the density structure in the shelf break area and facilitates the set-up of the onshore pressure gradient over the outer shelf. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]