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Bioclimatic potential analysis is one of the starting points for bioclimatic building design. However, as climate changes are being brought into the spotlight, bioclimatic potential is being put into question as well, because traditionally used passive strategies at a specific location may no longer represent properly balanced approach. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to systematically evaluate bioclimatic potential of the selected five locations. At these locations, bioclimatic potential was observed separately for each of the last five decades. In the second part, present and future energy performance of one bioclimatic and one non-bioclimatic real residential building was simulated. The results show that yearly balance between heating and cooling passive strategies changed through time in all the locations. For example, the use of overheating prevention strategies is becoming more significant than it used to be in the past. Specifically, the period of year when shading is needed to achieve thermal comfort increased by 2–7% points, depending on location. Energy performance analysis of the selected buildings showed that by 2050 both analysed buildings will become cooling dominated and that by 2050 the current design solutions in bioclimatic buildings will become irrelevant or at least extremely inefficient. In general, in temperate climate zone the prevailing bioclimatic strategies integrated in architecture focus on heating season. Therefore, bioclimatic strategies in a particular location must be re-evaluated in order to design new and retrofit existing energy efficient contemporary buildings with comfortable indoor thermal conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the construction industry has been comprehensively focusing on energy performance of buildings and on achieving higher standards of living comfort. One of the most sophisticated ways to attain both at the same time is (re)achieving building’s climate balance by using bioclimatic design. Therefore, the main goal of this paper was to present a bioclimatic potential prognosis and to show its application on an example of the Alpine-Adriatic region. The bioclimatic potential prognosis was made for 21 characteristic locations. For this purpose, bioclimatic chart plots were made using elementary weather data and additionally, the actually received solar irradiance was precisely considered at every location. The latter was shown to have a large influence on the analysis results. Furthermore, an evaluation of performed bioclimatic potential prognosis was made with simulations of a generic building model using Energy Plus. The generic building model was tested in five selected locations and the heating and cooling demand results were compared with the bioclimatic potential analysis. The results showed that the application of the presented method can indicate which passive solutions should be applied in building design at a specific location in order to facilitate smaller energy usage and consequential higher indoor comfort. In addition, the presented approach can be used in order to incorporate the latest or predicted climate data into bioclimatic potential analysis. The latter has a significant influence on the design of buildings of the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Low energy use of single-family buildings can be assured solely by passive design. • Passive adaptation only partly counterbalances climate change effects on energy use. • Total energy use will decrease in cold and temperate and increase in warm climates. • The most effective long-term climate adaptation measure is applying smaller windows. • New buildings should be designed according to mid-term optima (2020/2050 period). The presented study aims to clarify the implications of passive design measures on heating and cooling energy use of single-family residential buildings under European representative climates. In order to address this matter, different values of thermal transmittance (opaque and transparent), window to floor ratio, window distribution, shape factor, diurnal heat storage capacity, external opaque surface solar absorptivity and natural ventilation cooling rates were combined in 496,800 building energy models, which were simulated at eight locations. Because buildings are in use for many decades, the energy use simulations were made considering the projected climate change up to the end of the 21st century. The results delivered a set of the most effective passive design measures for achieving low energy use in buildings regarding climate type and period. A lower window to floor ratio was identified as the most universally applicable design measure to counterbalance the projected effect of a warming climate. In contrast, other measures vary according to climate type and studied period. Furthermore, it was concluded that it is difficult to neutralise the projected climate change effects on buildings' energy use, even when applying the best performing combination of passive design measures. However, reasonably low energy use can still be assured solely by passive building design, especially in oceanic, warm, and some temperate climate locations. Therefore, the identified trends in energy use and passive design measures represent the foundation for strategies and guidelines aimed at future-proof energy-efficient buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]