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China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Visualization and quantitative analysis of the global ecological carbon sinks and sources. • Enhance the prediction of carbon sequestration dynamics under climate change. • Climate change potentially affecting the carbon-climate feedback. • Research content is becoming clearer and more systematic. • Keyword clustering the classification of the research into six relatively independent subtopics. Climate change is extensively affecting the global ecosystem, especially the ecosystem carbon sequestration and sequestration potential, which are issues of global concern. The proposed concept of "carbon neutrality" in 2020 has brought ecological carbon sequestration to the forefront. Therefore, the research on climate change and ecosystem carbon sequestration need to be systematically reviewed, summarized, and examined. Based on the Web of Science database, this paper analyzed 4005 articles (1992–2022 year) after rigorous screening via a bibliometrics analysis and then presented the research trends and future research focus of ecological carbon sequestration. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) the research over the last 30 years has steadily improved, and the annual number of publications has increased in a cubic polynomial fashion (R 2 = 0.9937), with 87.57 % of the total publications appearing after 2009. Global Change Biology and Science of the Total Environment are the most influential journals in the field; (2) participation in such research is becoming increasingly common with expanding research areas covering Eurasia, America, Oceania, and Africa. The United States and China are the most productive and influential countries; (3) the diversity of this research is increasing, and the research content is becoming more explicit and systematic. Most research focuses on climate change, carbon sequestration, management, land-use changes, and nitrogen and soil organic carbon; (4) although traditional ecological evaluation techniques were essential early on, remote sensing and modeling have become the primary methods for assessment; (5) keyword clustering allows the classification of the research into six relatively independent subtopics: climate change and terrestrial ecosystems, sequestration and organic-carbon, ecosystem services, nitrogen and carbon cycling, biomass and forest, and blue carbon, which provides a reference for further research on ecological carbon sequestration and carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has proposed to achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060. It is important for China to clearly understand the carbon sink of ecosystems. Most current studies focus on accounting for the carbon sink or carbon emission in the past and ignore the contribution of ecosystems to carbon neutrality in the future. The work presented in this paper projects land use changes in 2030 and 2060 under the business as usual (BAS), rapid economic development (RED), and ecological land protection (ELP) scenarios based on Multiple Objective Programming and GeoSOS-FLUS and calculates the carbon budgets and contributions of ecosystems to carbon neutrality in Qinghai during 2000–2060. The key findings are that the contributions of the terrestrial ecosystem to carbon neutrality in Qinghai are 9.92% (BAS), 10.03% (ELP) and 7.56% (RED) in 2030, and 3.23% (BAS), 3.28% (ELP) and 2.91% (RED) in 2060. These results indicate that the Qinghai ecosystem has carbon sink potential and the reduction of carbon emissions by humans is the core challenge in achieving carbon neutrality. Therefore, some recommendations have been made: 1) optimizing the land use structure to enhance the ecosystem sink in Qinghai; 2) continuing to implement the policies of ecological protection in Qinghai; 3) reducing the anthropogenic carbon emissions is the key to achieving carbon neutrality in 2060. This study not only offers data support and related policy recommendations to realize carbon neutrality goals but also provides a feasible method for future ecosystem contribution assessments under the goal of carbon neutrality. • Current land use policies in Qinghai are partial to ecological land protection. • Terrestrial ecosystem contributions to carbon neutrality are decreasing. • Terrestrial ecosystem contributions are similar in 2060 under three scenarios. • Carbon emission reduction of social system is key to achieving carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide the most up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's cement industry. • We construct the G-LEAP model to project the CO 2 emissions of China's cement industry. • The CO 2 emissions could be reduced maximum by 70 percent in 2060, while the remainder will need to come from technological innovation and new growth horizons. This paper aims to assess the emission reduction potential of combined mitigation technologies in China's cement industry, thus transitioning towards carbon neutrality through a suitable technology portfolio and exploring a low-carbon pathway. The G-LEAP model is constructed for future carbon emission projection, incorporating the cement demand projection and technology application. The pathways based on different technology portfolios are developed to estimate the CO 2 emission trajectory of China's cement industry. We maximize the utilization of currently available technologies and assume a high level of innovative technology diffusion rate in the integrated mitigation pathway to explore the maximum abatement potential of the cement industry. The result shows that short-term mitigation mainly relies on improving energy efficiency and alternative low-carbon fuels, which would contribute 9–12% and 17–22% of the cumulative emissions reduction in the integrated mitigation pathway compared to a frozen scenario. Alternative clinkers can significantly reduce process-related emissions, but the potential is determined by the availability of raw materials, which would contribute 30–39% of the cumulative emission reduction. Post- and oxygen-combustion capture is expected to be deployed by 2030 and contribute about 28–44% to cumulative emission reduction. The technology portfolio in the integrated mitigation pathway would reduce China's cement CO 2 emissions by 63–73% compared to the frozen scenario, and the remainder of CO 2 emission would be 300–400 Mt in 2060, which will need the technological innovation and new growth horizons, such as carbon sink approaches or carbon trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dual-carbon target (i.e., carbon peak and carbon neutrality) has been a critical external factor for the usage of China's fossil energy in the future. As the lowest-carbon fossil energy source, the uncertainty of China's natural gas usage is much higher than that of coal and oil. Thus, a detailed analysis of China's future natural gas consumption (NGC) under the dual-carbon target has attracted great attention from academia. This paper constructs a system dynamics-based forecasting model for China's NGC, and predicts the trends of China's primary energy demand, natural gas demand, and carbon emissions under four scenarios of high-, medium-, low-, and business-as-usual transitions. The low transition scenario, which is in line with the actual situation of China, shows that: (1) primary energy consumption peaks around 2040 at approximately 7 billion tons of standard coal equivalent. (2) Carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 at approximately 10.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, and "net zero" carbon emissions will be achieved in 2057 and 2059 under high and low carbon sinks, respectively. (3) NGC is expected to peak in 2038 at approximately 630 billion cubic meters. (4) Industrial gas is expected to peak around 2035 at approximately 450 billion cubic meters. • We predict medium- and long-term natural gas consumption in China. • We construct a system dynamics model considering the bind of dual-carbon target. • We apply scenario analysis to quantify the intensity of low-carbon transition. • We get results of prediction the peak natural gas consumption in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]