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The core of the energy transformation under the carbon-neutral vision is the gradual replacement of high-carbon energy by zero-carbon and low-carbon energy. However, the large-scale deployment of clean energy technology in turn relies on key minerals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel. Based on this, this paper conducts research on the demand for key minerals in clean energy transition and the role of key minerals in clean energy transition. In particular, this paper calculated the demand for mineral supply for China's carbon neutrality target, and the impact of some mineral resource constraints on the carbon neutrality path. Relevant results can provide a decision-making basis for the future development and utilization of key mineral resources, as well as the implementation of future carbon-neutral goals. • We evaluate the impact of crucial mineral resource on the carbon neutrality path. • Copper's availability greatly affects the adoption of new energy technologies. • Limited resources hinder early carbon capture and storage development. • Negative emission technologies are necessary for China's carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. Hebei, as a major energy province in China, has more challenging carbon peaking and carbon neutrality targets. Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper evaluates the time to peak carbon and post-peak carbon trend changes in Hebei province under different scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Based on the support vector machine model with particle swarm optimization, this paper evaluates the carbon neutral pathways under different scenarios in Hebei province from 2020 to 2060 in terms of forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS). The results show that a monotonically flat trend without inflection point, a single-inflection-point plateau-period trend and a multi-inflection-point inverted U-wave trend occur after carbon peaks. Hebei Province can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the policy scenario and the enhanced scenario, and the enhanced scenario is better. Comparing with existing studies, the innovation of this paper is to design different trends of changes after carbon peak, combining carbon absorption and carbon emission, and providing more diversified development paths for carbon neutral strategies through a more integrated perspective and multi-scenario comprehensive analysis. Therefore, In the future, Hebei Province should establish a platform for carbon emissions monitoring and carbon footprint assessment, and set up an early warning and assessment mechanism for carbon peaking, so as to prevent a rebound trend in carbon emissions after peaking. At the same time, it should introduce and develop carbon capture and conversion technologies and promote the low-carbon transformation of the industrial and energy sectors, thereby forcing the early realization of peak carbon. Pay attention to the role of forestry resources in carbon neutrality, increase carbon sink resources such as forests and wetlands, promote the development of CCUS, and enhance the implementation of the policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the nexus between the efficiency of carbon emission allocation and the efficiency of green development within the context of innovative city construction. Leveraging data from 283 prefecture-level cities and corresponding provincial-level panel data spanning the period from 2005 to 2019 in mainland China, the research employs the zero-sum gain DEA model to compute provincial carbon emission allocation efficiency and allocate allowances. Furthermore, it utilizes the all-factor non-radial directional distance function and the SBM-DEA model to gauge the green development efficiency of prefecture-level cities. The double-difference method is applied to evaluate the impact of innovative city construction on regional green development efficiency. The results indicate that an imbalance between carbon emission allocation efficiency and emission quotas detrimentally affects urban green development. However, technological progress, factor accumulation, and the institutional environment associated with innovative city building mitigate this negative impact. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a differentiated effect of innovative city building on regional green development efficiency. This paper not only explores the concept of achieving an equitable distribution of carbon emission allowances but also examines how innovative city building influences regional green development. By establishing connections between urban policies, the equitable distribution of carbon emission allowances, and regional green development, it introduces a new perspective for promoting high-quality development at the regional level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's energy transformation has been accompanied by potential energy security issues. However, the influence degree and driving mechanism behind this phenomenon remain unclear. In this paper, we developed a complex network-based technical resilience assessment framework and quantified both the historical trajectory and the prospective pathway of energy technical resilience in China. We proposed to reveal the relationship between cleaner energy supply and technical resilience by defining three energy technology resilience indicators: energy robustness, energy recovery rate, and energy performance loss. The results showed a consistent decline in energy technical resilience within China, predominantly characterized by an average diminution of 6.83% in energy robustness from 2010 to 2018. Taking carbon neutrality as a target, China's energy system transformation, characterized by increasing clean energy supply, leads to a significant improvement of 7.73% in energy robustness from 2020 to 2060. Conversely, the nationally determined contribution scenario exhibited negligible changes (±0.57%) in energy robustness, while a decline of 2.21% was noted under the business as usual scenario. Furthermore, energy robustness exhibited increments of 12.07%, 2.3%, and 4.17% for every 10% rise in the share of clean energy supply during 2020–2060, demonstrating greater resilience for cleaner energy systems against disruptions, including energy import interruptions, malicious attacks, and random failures. It has been concluded that enhancing the supply of clean energy can significantly contribute to bolstering China's energy technical resilience, while simultaneously addressing climate change concerns. • Network analysis is used to assess China's energy technical resilience. • Energy technical resilience is evaluated regarding robustness, recovery rate, and performance loss. • Energy system robustness significantly increases under carbon neutrality scenario. • Increasing clean energy supply strengthens resilience against shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of global climate change has led to a widespread consensus on carbon reduction, with the power industry being the principal contributor to carbon emissions necessitating an inevitable transition of its energy structure. Concomitantly, the escalating frequency of natural disasters caused by extreme weather presents formidable challenges to both secure power supply and the low-carbon transition of the power system. To fulfill the developmental requirements of a low-carbon power system and address the carbon emission risks imposed by natural disasters, this paper proposes a bi-level model for generation expansion planning (GEP) that incorporates constraints on the carbon emission trajectory and the influence of natural disasters. The planning-level model optimizes investment costs of various generation technologies and energy storage (ES), as well as the overall operational expenses over the planning period, with an objective to minimize them. It incorporates carbon emission trajectory constraints and policy constraints, such as carbon peaking, carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) penetration rates, in order to optimize the planning installed capacity of power sources. The operational-level model aims to minimize typical daily operating costs while also simulating power unit outputs in routine and disaster scenarios. A case study is conducted in a disaster-prone province in southern China to analyze the power generation expansion planning and the trajectory of carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 under different scenarios. The simulation results show that compared to thermal power, the planning scheme mainly focused on RE with ES is better suited to achieve the goal of a low-carbon transition of the power grid. Moreover, after considering natural disasters, the cost and carbon emissions of power system planning are higher, and the risk of carbon emissions increases with the severity of disasters. • A multi-time scale bi-level low-carbon GEP model is proposed. • Natural disaster scenarios and low-carbon policy constraints are considered in the GEP model. • Carbon emission trajectory of the planned power system is estimated and introduced as a constraint into the GEP model. • Evaluation indicators that comprehensively consider low-carbon performance and economic feasibility are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of China's environmental regulations, with a focus on the green credit policy, on green innovation in pursuit of the "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" goal. Given the implementation of the 2012 Green Credit Guidelines, this paper employs the Difference-in-Difference Method (DID) and conducts a quasi-natural experiment to empirically examine the interactions among the central government, local governments, and high-pollution and high-emission enterprises by exploring the impact of green credit policies on green innovation of these enterprises. Relying on 4503 samples of 237 high-pollution and high-emission enterprises listed in the main board in China from 2003 to 2021, this study reveals that the green credit policy can improve green innovation of these enterprises. Specifically, this study explores the detailed mechanism through which the green credit policy enables these enterprises to increase their market concentration and then the monopoly profits, which in turn promotes their green innovative productivity. In addition, this paper also reveals how local governments' political and financial incentives may serve as positive and negative moderating factors, respectively, within the impact mechanism. This study has valuable implications for how to effectively formulate and implement environmental regulations by balancing the interests of the central government, local governments and enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As major strategic development areas in China, the provinces around the Yangtze River are facing the pressure of large aggregate CO 2 emissions and high per capita CO 2 emissions. The study on the pathway of reducing CO 2 emissions and increasing carbon sequestration will help China better clarify the ways realize the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible. In this paper, the extended STIRPAT model and OLS regression were used to establish a prediction model to estimate the CO 2 emissions during 2010–2060 under different scenarios. Meanwhile, the InVEST model was used to estimate the carbon sequestration, and the comparison with the CO 2 emissions was analyzed. The results show that Qinghai and Yunnan have achieved the goal of carbon neutrality in 2010. Under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario and the baseline scenario, all provinces within the study area are anticipated to attain their emissions peak by 2030 or earlier, and the CO 2 emissions peak value of the whole study area is 3111 Mt and 3199 Mt, respectively. While under the high emissions scenario, only Chongqing and Qinghai will reach the emissions peak in 2030, and the whole study area will reach the emissions peak in 2040, with peak value of 3470 Mt. Under the three scenarios, the whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Only Sichuan and Hubei can achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 and 2060 under the low-carbon and energy-saving scenario. All provinces and municipalities in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River are facing huge pressure of emissions reduction. The research reveals that the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality should be achieved by developing clean energy, transforming industrial structure, increasing carbon sequestration and improving carbon emissions trading system. [Display omitted] • The CO 2 emissions showed a pattern of increase during 2010–2020. • The whole study area will achieve carbon peak by 2040 or earlier. • The whole study area cannot achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. • The realization pathway of carbon peak and neutrality was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's largest producer and consumer of coal, coal phaseout is critical for China to achieve carbon neutrality and contribute to global decarbonization. Here, utilizing the Global Change Assessment Model, this paper simulates China's coal phaseout pathways at the sectoral level between 2015 and 2060, considering the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). The results show that China's coal consumption peaks at 96.4 Exajoules (EJ) in approximately 2020 and needs to decrease to 10.9 EJ by 2060 to achieve carbon neutrality. Specifically, the power sector bears the most significant proportion of responsibility, as its coal consumption must fall to 1.4 EJ by 2060, which is approximately 97.2% lower than the peak in 2020. The industrial sector is next and needs to decrease consumption to 9.2 EJ of coal in 2060, which is a reduction of 32.3 EJ below the 2020 level. Electricity will replace coal as the dominant energy source in the industrial sector after 2040. However, a portion of feed coal will remain in the industry for a long time. Among the industrial subsectors, the steel sector needs to put significant pressure on efforts to phase out coal, followed by the cement and nitrogen fertilizer sectors. In 2060, these three sectors will consume 5.7 EJ of coal, accounting for 64.1% of the total coal consumption in the industrial sector. The deployment of coal-CCS is one of the alternatives to achieve carbon neutrality and ensure smooth coal phaseout. Under the carbon neutrality scenario, the annual deployment of coal-CCS needs to exceed 0.13 EJ from 2025 to 2045, with a peak at 3.3 EJ in 2045. • China's coal phaseout pathway is assessed in the carbon neutrality scenario (CNS). • Coal consumption needs to drop to 10.9 EJ in 2060 to achieve carbon neutrality. • The power sector's coal will decrease to 97.2% below the peak by 2060 in the CNS. • The industry will pass the power sector as the top coal consumer by 2045 in the CNS. • The deployment of coal-CCS will peak at 3.3 EJ after 2045 in the CNS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems has been the concern of governments. Integrated energy system (IES) is affected by climate change during his operation, in order to study the impact of climate change on IES and achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems, this paper proposes an integrated machine learning(IML) to forecast the long-term load, then investigates IES costs and carbon emissions in relation to climate, followed by the establishment of carbon peak energy system(CPES) and carbon neutral energy system(CNES), finally the honey badger algorithm is used to optimize the configuration of CPES and CNES. The results show that: IML can accurately make load forecasts. Under climate change, changes in load reduce the cost and carbon emissions of IES, and changes in equipment efficiency increase the cost and carbon emissions of IES. When both are considered, the cost and carbon emissions of IES increase by 1.18% and 0.92% per decade respectively. The costs of CPES and CNES increase by 0.93% and 1% respectively for every 10 years earlier than the year of achievement. To meet China's "double carbon" goal, CPES and CNES need to increase their costs by 1.97% and 2% respectively. • Integrated machine learning proposed for long-term load forecasting. • Studied the impact of system equipment efficiency and load with climate change. • Proposing carbon peaking energy system to achieve the carbon peak goal. • Proposed carbon-neutral energy system to achieve carbon neutrality goal. • The increased costs of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutral were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To support high-quality carbon peaking, a scenario analysis of carbon peaking pathways according to an industrial chain perspective considering both material and part production needs exploring. As a critical segment in the aluminum industrial chain, aluminum casting industry was focused on in this paper. A bottom-up scenario analysis approach was proposed for the carbon emission simulation of China's aluminum casting industry, including: (1) a carbon emission assessment model based on material flow analysis and life-cycle assessment, (2) key influence factor selection and variation scenario prediction, (3) static and dynamic scenario analysis, and (4) driving factor decomposition analysis. Key findings are as follows: (1) China's aluminum casting industry accounted for about 1.1% of the national carbon emissions in 2020; (2) the production stage accounted for around 15% of the total carbon emissions of China's aluminum casting industry in 2020; (3) carbon peaking probabilities before 2030 for the static and dynamic scenario analysis are around 60% and 35%, respectively; and (4) the carbon peaking result differences in whether considering the production stage are about 20% for the static simulation and average 40% for the dynamic simulation. These findings effectively support the formulation of a high-quality carbon peaking pathway. • A bottom-up approach of scenario analysis was proposed for carbon peaking pathways. • Carbon emission assessment model was built with corresponding inventory data. • Static and dynamic scenario analyses of carbon emissions were compared. • Decomposition and sensitivity analysis of driving factors were conducted. • Production stage accounted for around 15% of the total carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon trading market is an effective way to mitigate the threat of climate warming. In the context of carbon neutrality, what is the carbon emission trading scheme's carbon reduction effect? This paper answers the question by examining the carbon efficiency of China's iron and steel industry. This study first constructs CO 2 emission efficiency by employing the data envelopment approach. It then uses the synthetic control method to identify the impact of the carbon emission trading scheme on the CO 2 efficiency of the iron and steel industry. The results show that CO 2 emission efficiency in pilot provinces increased at a 5% significance level compared with the counterfactual scenario. The carbon trading market plays a vital role in industrial CO 2 emission efficiency improvement in Guangdong, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hubei, and Chongqing. From a dynamic perspective, the policy effect of enhancing CO 2 efficiency becomes more prominent over time. Moreover, the effectiveness degree of the carbon emission trading scheme varies across pilot provinces, caused of regional policy differences. Based on the findings, we put forward targeted suggestions for improving the newly-established national carbon trading market. • The DEA model and the synthetic control method are employed in the study. • Impact of carbon market on CO 2 efficiency of iron and steel industry is verified. • The heterogeneity of carbon market effects is explored from regional perspective. • Carbon market significantly promotes industrial CO 2 efficiency in pilot provinces. • China should develop the national carbon market to achieve carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• More reliable modeling assumptions and methods are proposed. • Price regulation may increase industrial output in China. • The reform can lead to a cleaner power mix and better economic structure. • The reform can be of great help to alleviate the fiscal deficit. • Impact mechanisms through cost linkages in different situations are put forward. China promised to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. However, electricity prices are still regulated, which may affect the effect of carbon neutrality, especially in China, because 70% of China's electricity comes from thermal power generation. In this paper, a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model (CEEEA/CGE model) is applied to simulate the electricity market-oriented reform under the target of carbon neutrality from 2020 to 2060. The results show that the target may increase the demand for labor and capital to cope with increasing energy costs, and the reform may reduce GDP. However, power reform can significantly optimize the energy and economic structures and alleviate the fiscal deficit. Moreover, this paper finds and concludes the mechanism causing these effects (such as factor substitution, price advantage, government revenue, and structure), which provides policymakers with a new perspective of power reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the proposal to achieve carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as a critical negative carbon technology is receiving extensive attention and concerns around the world. Under this context, the development of CCUS and relevant literature both have been experiencing an upsurge. However, the actual scale of CCUS is still far behind our expectations, especially, the various risks and uncertainties associated with its deployment planning have not yet been addressed clearly. Therefore, this paper provides an overview of model-based CCUS deployment pathways toward carbon neutrality, as well as the associated risks of financial, technical, environmental, health and safety (EHS) aspects. On this basis, we scrutinize the potential challenges that could lead to the pace of CCUS deployment inconsistent with the need to achieve a carbon-neutral target. The results suggest that the "Golden Age" of CCUS deployment lies from 2040 to 2060 in the world, while 2030–2050 for China. Furthermore, we found that inadequate exploration in geologic storage capacity also creates a critical conundrum for CCUS deployment and optimization, apart from typical challenges including high failure rate of projects, the lack of financial support and market stimulus, as well as incomplete regulation framework and risk-sharing mechanism. Lastly, this paper points out the further potential research direction, followed by policy implications and recommendations. • A comprehensive reference for CCUS deployment towards carbon neutrality is presented. • We discuss possible risks or uncertain factors for altering CCUS deployment paths and planning layout. • Future needs to improve geological storage exploration and estimation are highlighted. Further potential research direction and policy implications for CCUS are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission trading, a market-incentive environmental regulation, plays a critical role in leading China towards the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. To improve the national carbon emission trading in China, we analyze the effects of the policy in pilot provinces and pilot A-share listed firms from 2008 to 2016. Particularly, to explore the pilot policy's environmental and financial impacts, this paper applies a difference-in-difference method. After the robustness check, the results confirm the carbon emission trading pilot's significantly positive impact at both firm- and province-level regarding carbon emission reduction. Meanwhile, corporate innovation seems to partially mediate the relationship between the policy and corporate carbon emission reduction. Plus, the policy promotes firms' market-based financial performance but such impact on accounting-based financial performance is insignificant. Ultimately, the operational mechanism of the policy is proved to be effective. In this paper, industry- and firm-level carbon emissions databases are established via environmental extended input-output table, which fill the research gap of China's firm-level carbon emissions. To ensure the reliability of results, the list of covered firms is sorted out manually in accordance with the disclosed data of seven carbon trading markets. Our results are meaningful for avoid productivity reduction and mechanism re-design in the context of the national carbon emission trading launched in 2021. Specifically, encouraging firms to further improve their productivity and competitiveness by innovation could eventually achieve a win-win situation between economic performance and environmental merits in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River Delta region is one of the key areas of energy transition for China's carbon neutrality. The pathways to carbon neutrality are diverse in the regional level due to the different conditions on the energy supply and demand side. How to construct comprehensive assessment index system and evaluate regional pathways to carbon neutrality is an urgent problem to be solved. To fill this gap, this paper evaluates the carbon neutrality pathways of supply-side and demand-side coordination in the Yangtze River Delta region using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios): Business as usual, energy intensity decrease, energy structure reform, power supply technology innovation and policies mix. The simulation results indicate that: (1) 22 of the 64 sub-scenarios can achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. (2) In energy intensity decrease scenario, an annual 6% reduction in energy intensity could achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. (3) The policies mix scenario can lead to 21 sub-scenarios with pathways to achieve carbon neutrality when the average annual energy intensity decreases by 4% or more. Additionally, the end-use sectors electrification level should reach 64.19% at least by 2060. (4) There can be 14 sub-scenarios to achieve zero carbon emissions in the power plant sector, but annual energy intensity should be reduced by at least 4%. Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process analysis, the article evaluated the 22 sub-scenarios with the index of regional pathways to carbon neutrality. The result shows that the mixed policies of energy intensity reduction, energy structure reformation and power technology innovation can promote the coordination of supply-side and demand-side. This study can provide reference for policymakers to formulate effective policies to realize carbon neutrality. • The coordination of energy supply and energy demand is assessed. • A model with five scenarios (64 sub-scenarios) is developed for carbon neutrality. • Energy intensity drops by 4% or more can lead to multiple carbon neutral pathways. • A comprehensive assessment index of regional carbon neutral pathways is developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting low-carbon development in the iron and steel industry (ISI) is essential for China to achieve the carbon neutrality targets. This paper separately adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique and the Mean Impact Value (MIV) method to analyze the impact of driving factors on the CO 2 emissions of ISI in the historical and future dimensions. Furthermore, this paper establishes the extreme learning machine model optimized by the bat algorithm (BA-BP) to explore the carbon emission reduction pathways of ISI in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the low-speed, medium-speed and high-speed development scenarios considering the constraints of carbon neutrality targets. The results reveal that: (1) Production capacity and energy efficiency are important drivers of CO 2 emissions in ISI; (2) The emission reduction situation is not optimistic under the BAU scenario, and it is difficult to accomplish the carbon neutrality goals by 2060; (3) Under the most ideal emission reduction pathway (corresponding to the high-speed development scenario), ISI will reach its peak in 2022 with the peak value of 2143.42 MtCO 2. Compared to the peak year, the CO 2 emissions will be reduced by 654.69 MtCO 2 and 1558.61 MtCO 2 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Moreover, the achievement of short-term and long-term emission reduction targets depends on production capacity decline and technological progress, respectively. The optimal emission reduction pathway provides a reference for ISI to formulate periodic emission reduction targets. • The improved extreme learning machine is employed to predict the carbon emissions. • The emission reduction pathways are explored under the carbon neutrality target. • Controlling production capacity is a crucial reduction strategy. • The energy rebound effect is supposed to be weakened. • The application of advanced technologies will greatly promote emission reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The realization of carbon neutral goal is inseparable from the development of new energy industry, and scientific and effective policy support can accelerate the progress of the goal. In this paper, the policy driven ability of China's photovoltaic industry in the background of carbon neutral is evaluated. Firstly, the evaluation system is established by the improved diamond model. Then, the policy evaluation standard is formulated according to the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy sets (IT2FS). Finally, the weight of each index is determined by using the fuzzy OWA operator weighting method (F-OWA). Then, the policy driving ability of China's photovoltaic industry is evaluated by fuzzy matter-element extension method (F-MEEM), and the effectiveness of the evaluation results is further verified by weight sensitivity analysis. According to the evaluation results, policy support plays an important role in the development of photovoltaic industry. This paper also gives policy suggestions for the development of China's photovoltaic industry under the background of carbon neutral from the macro, meso and micro perspectives. • China's PV industry evaluation system is established by the improved diamond model. •IT2FS and F-OWA are used to process indicators. •The policy driving ability of China's PV industry is evaluated by F-MEEM. •The effectiveness of the evaluation results is further verified by weight sensitivity analysis. •The results are analyzed in detail, and corresponding suggestions are put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has played an active and constructive role in the global combat against climate change. Municipalities play a leading role in tackling global climate change. However, despite the global efforts to push for carbon neutrality, the pathway is not yet clear. Using the municipality of Bengbu as a case, this paper explores pathways for achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality in order to reach a CO 2 emission peak before 2030 in four Scenarios and develops a low emission framework taking into consideration the local economy, population, renewable resources, as well as the transport and energy sectors based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. Meanwhile, the energy demand, the structure of the electric power generation, the CO 2 emission, and the total cost in different Scenarios are simulated respectively. The result of this study provides insight on options for energy transformation for the period of 2020–2060. The results show that the industrial sector is the largest energy consumer. The growth rate of energy demand in the primary industry and industrial sector shows downward trends. The increasement of industrial electrification rate and coal generation phasing out are crucial to CO 2 emission reduction. The large-scale deployment of renewable energy and the deployment of thermal power generation with CCUS are important for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. Last but not the least, recommendations on energy planning for municipals to realize carbon emission peak and achieve carbon neutrality are provided. • Pathways for achieving carbon reduction targets of the municipality based on the LEAP model are explored. • The coal generation phasing out is prerequisite to CO 2 emission reduction. • The large-scale deployment of renewable energy is crucial for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. • The deployment of thermal power with CCUS is necessary for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. • Restructuring of industrial energy consumption and increasing the electrification rate are significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate is warming up and climate disasters occur more frequently, China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets are gaining attention, with provinces starting to set carbon peak targets and constantly exploring low carbon economic development opportunities. However, the existing evaluation index system mainly focuses on low carbon cities and green cities, and there is no evaluation index system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study adopts a combination of theoretical and empirical research and draws on domestic and international research results to construct the first index system for evaluating China's provincial carbon peak and carbon neutrality. The evaluation index system includes 18 indicators from three dimensions: climate ambition, low carbon status, and emissions trends. Using this index system, we calculated the carbon peak and carbon neutrality indices of 30 Chinese provinces. Further, the 30 provinces were classified into six categories, and corresponding policy recommendations for achieving the "Dual carbon" targets were put forward. The evaluation index system constructed in this paper can provide a reference for future carbon peak and carbon neutrality assessments. By disclosing the integrated index of each province, we hope to effectively curb the increasing local carbon emissions; avert inaction in areas with good natural endowments; and motivate the advancement of the latter, to boost the implementation of the "Dual carbon" targets coherently for the whole country. [Display omitted] • An integrated evaluation system on China's Provincial "Dual carbon" was proposed. • 30 provinces in mainland China were ranked based on the integrated index. • 6 groups were classified to show provincial differences on dual carbon performance. • Policy recommendations to fulfill China's climate commitment were put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2022 is the seventh year since the Paris Agreement was signed. In the context of the same goals of achieving carbon neutrality and transforming the energy structure, hydrogen has become one of the most appealing options for realizing a better vision. This paper reviews the status and challenges of hydrogen application paths in high carbon emission sectors, especially in the electricity and heating, transportation, and steel industries. The discussions focus on the potential contribution from the replacement of primary energy and the reduction in carbon emission by switching to a hydrogen economy. In the case of China in 2030, the application of hydrogen in a single sector is expected to save up to $27.8 billion in carbon tax. Additionally, the key technologies for hydrogen production, storage, and carbon footprint in the industry chain are discussed. In contrast, the cost-effective blue hydrogen is still the best choice. The hydrogen storage technologies suitable for large-scale and low energy consumption need to be broken through. The study of carbon footprint in the industry chain will promote the development of hydrogen in the designated sectors and provide insights for the policy decision on hydrogen development at the regional or industrial level. • The hydrogen application paths for decarbonization are thoroughly compared. • Hydrogen production paths are reviewed in aspects of cost and carbon intensity. • Hydrogen production from fossil energy with CCS is a positive choice. • The LCA method of the industry chain is conducive to the hydrogen promotion. • Specific suggestions for the sustainable development of hydrogen are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We provide the most up-to-date CO 2 emission inventory for China's cement industry. • We construct the G-LEAP model to project the CO 2 emissions of China's cement industry. • The CO 2 emissions could be reduced maximum by 70 percent in 2060, while the remainder will need to come from technological innovation and new growth horizons. This paper aims to assess the emission reduction potential of combined mitigation technologies in China's cement industry, thus transitioning towards carbon neutrality through a suitable technology portfolio and exploring a low-carbon pathway. The G-LEAP model is constructed for future carbon emission projection, incorporating the cement demand projection and technology application. The pathways based on different technology portfolios are developed to estimate the CO 2 emission trajectory of China's cement industry. We maximize the utilization of currently available technologies and assume a high level of innovative technology diffusion rate in the integrated mitigation pathway to explore the maximum abatement potential of the cement industry. The result shows that short-term mitigation mainly relies on improving energy efficiency and alternative low-carbon fuels, which would contribute 9–12% and 17–22% of the cumulative emissions reduction in the integrated mitigation pathway compared to a frozen scenario. Alternative clinkers can significantly reduce process-related emissions, but the potential is determined by the availability of raw materials, which would contribute 30–39% of the cumulative emission reduction. Post- and oxygen-combustion capture is expected to be deployed by 2030 and contribute about 28–44% to cumulative emission reduction. The technology portfolio in the integrated mitigation pathway would reduce China's cement CO 2 emissions by 63–73% compared to the frozen scenario, and the remainder of CO 2 emission would be 300–400 Mt in 2060, which will need the technological innovation and new growth horizons, such as carbon sink approaches or carbon trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The influencing factors of carbon prices in China's carbon market are analysed. • The influencing factors and historical data are combined to predict the carbon price. • The EEMD-BP-ELM model and the CHINAGEM-E model are constructed and combined. Carbon price is one of the core indicators of the carbon market. Making accurate predictions of carbon prices based on insight into the volatility characteristics of the carbon market will not only provide a scientific basis for investors and regulators to make decisions and greatly promote emission reduction, but also effectively promote the healthy development of the carbon financial market. Based on the historical carbon price data of the national carbon market, this paper constructs the EEMD-BP-ELM model to predict the high and low frequency components of China's future carbon price. On this basis, according to China's goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, the CHINAGEM-E model is used to predict the trend component of the carbon price under the baseline and the 2060 carbon neutral scenarios. Finally, the trend component is combined with the high and low frequency components to obtain the price range from 2022 to 2060. We find that under the baseline scenario, China's carbon price range in 2060 is [343, 785] CNY/tCO2, while under the 2060 carbon neutral scenario, this price range is [1543, 3531] CNY/tCO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Constructing a new welfare function considering economy, equity and ecology. • Optimizing carbon emission pathways from multiple perspectives. • Focusing on the emission pathways in China achieving the ambitious targets. With the increasing climate warming, reducing carbon emissions has gradually become a consensus around the world. However, the process of carbon emission reduction will inevitably lead to the transformation of economic structure, industrial structure and energy structure, which will bring huge changes in economic output, employment and other aspects, thus affecting the overall social welfare and equity. Therefore, it is particularly important for each country to determine a scientific and effective carbon emission pathway which take into account both social development and climate targets. As the largest carbon emitter, China has put forward the targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. In this regard, the corresponding carbon emission reduction scenarios are designed according to the new situation of China's emission reduction in this paper, firstly. Furthermore, under the premise of maximizing social welfare, an optimization model which integrating economic growth-equity-environment is developed to determine China's emission pathways under different scenarios from 2020 to 2050. Besides quantitatively showing the future total amount and peak value of carbon emissions under different scenarios, the results can also identify its evolution pathway over time. Therein, the peak under most scenarios will concentrate in 2025–2030, which is about 10.7 to 11.8 billion tons. With the increasingly stringent constraints on carbon emission reduction, the cost of emission reduction will increase correspondingly, but the overall social welfare will increase slightly. Finally, our findings provide practical guidance on achieving carbon emission reduction and enlightenments on policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dual-carbon target (i.e., carbon peak and carbon neutrality) has been a critical external factor for the usage of China's fossil energy in the future. As the lowest-carbon fossil energy source, the uncertainty of China's natural gas usage is much higher than that of coal and oil. Thus, a detailed analysis of China's future natural gas consumption (NGC) under the dual-carbon target has attracted great attention from academia. This paper constructs a system dynamics-based forecasting model for China's NGC, and predicts the trends of China's primary energy demand, natural gas demand, and carbon emissions under four scenarios of high-, medium-, low-, and business-as-usual transitions. The low transition scenario, which is in line with the actual situation of China, shows that: (1) primary energy consumption peaks around 2040 at approximately 7 billion tons of standard coal equivalent. (2) Carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 at approximately 10.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, and "net zero" carbon emissions will be achieved in 2057 and 2059 under high and low carbon sinks, respectively. (3) NGC is expected to peak in 2038 at approximately 630 billion cubic meters. (4) Industrial gas is expected to peak around 2035 at approximately 450 billion cubic meters. • We predict medium- and long-term natural gas consumption in China. • We construct a system dynamics model considering the bind of dual-carbon target. • We apply scenario analysis to quantify the intensity of low-carbon transition. • We get results of prediction the peak natural gas consumption in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, China must tackle CO 2 emission from its power sector which contributes to 40% (11.8 Gt in 2019) of its total CO 2 emission. Previous studies have shown that China has enough subsurface CO 2 storage capacity (3,145 Gt) to store 200–300 years of CO 2 emission nationwide or 600–700 years of CO 2 emission from the power sector. This paper evaluates the economic benefits of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to decarbonize China's coal-fired power plants and conducts a techno-economic analysis of four scenarios to achieve carbon neutrality in China's power sector by 2050. A model of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for coal-fired power plants equipped with CCS (CP-CCS) is used for comparing the economic competitiveness of CP-CCS with those of nuclear (NP), hydro (HP), wind (WP) and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. Results show that the LCOE of CP-CCS with a CO 2 transportation distance of 100 km or less and coal price below 455 CNY/t (70.54 USD/t with the exchange rate set at 1 USD = 6.45 CNY) is less than those of NP, WP and solar PV especially for a high discount rate. The cost of coal and CO 2 transportation are the two greatest contributors to the LCOE of CP-CCS. In addition, LCOE is sensitive to operation time of the CP-CCS. Retrofitting an existing coal-fired power plant with CCS reduces the LCOE by 10–18% compared to a newly built CP-CCS. Furthermore, a scenario of gradual increase (average annual growth rate of 0.93%) in electricity generation by CP-CCS has a lower total cost than one where coal-fired power plants are aggressively replaced by wind and solar PV power plants. This is especially true if the coal price is low and CO 2 transportation distance is short. The result is savings of trillions of CNY in costs for the power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emissions trading system (ETS) is a cost-effective way towards achieving the carbon neutrality goal. Based on the gaps in the research on carbon allowance allocation vis-à-vis the carbon neutrality target, this study examines how to allocate carbon allowances equitably and effectively among Chinese provinces. Different from the previous research that mainly considers responsibility, ability, and potential of equity dimensions, this paper proposes a composite indicator allocation approach based on the equity of history, demand, contribution, and guarantee, and it also employs the entropy method and expert survey method to obtain the indicator weight values in different scenarios. Results show that the carbon allowances of some provinces, such as the forest-rich province of Yunnan, vary significantly in five scenarios, but little differences are observed for some provinces, such as the high historical emissions province of Shanxi. More provinces achieve data envelopment analysis efficiency in the preferred scenario. Compared with the objective scenario, the required emission reduction in the preferred gross domestic product (GDP) scenario is 231 million tonnes less, and the emission reduction cost is 190 billion yuan less. It is suggested that the Chinese government should adopt the allocation scheme in preference for the GDP scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • China's agricultural carbon emission performance (ACEP) has greatly improved. • Technological progress promotes ACEP, but efficiency changes does little. • China's ACEP has an aggregation effect, provinces with lower ACEP are catching up. • China's ACEP is converging and growing at the same time. • China's ACEP will increase further in terms of spatial scope and temporal trends. The spatial characteristics of carbon emissions form the basis for exploring carbon neutrality measures for different regions. As the second largest carbon emission source globally, agricultural carbon emissions should not be ignored. This paper used panel data from 2009 to 2019 to calculate the agricultural carbon emissions of 30 provinces in China, and used the ML index, spatial Morans'I index and three convergence indices to analyze the dynamic changes and spatial pattern of China's agricultural carbon emission performance (ACEP). The results showed that: (i), China's ACEP has increased by 1.5% from 2009 to 2019, following a spatial pattern of eastern (1.041) > western (1.020) > central (0.974);(ii) the contribution of technological progress to China's ACEP was 1.035, exceeding 1, and thus indicating that technological progress can improve ACEP, while the contribution of efficiency changes was only 0.991; (iii) China's ACEP has exhibited a spatial aggregation effect over the last 10 years (P < 0.05), but the value of Moran's I index dropped from 0.265 in 2009 to 0.202 in 2019, which indicates that the spatial aggregation of ACEP is weakening; and (iv) the ML index for 30 provinces in China showed σ convergence, which indicates that the ACEP is improving, while there is absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence, which indicates a "catch-up effect" among regions. The results indicate that China's ACEP is likely to increase further in terms of spatial scope and temporal trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission right allowance is a double-edged sword, one edge is to reduce emission as its original design intention, another edge has in practice slain many less developed coal-consuming enterprises, especially for those in thermal power industry. Partially governed on the hilt in hands of the authority, body of this sword is the prices of carbon emission right. How should the thermal power plants dance on the blade motivates this research. Considering the impact of price fluctuations of carbon emission right allowance, we investigate the operation of Chinese thermal power plant by modeling the decision-making with optimal stopping problem, which is established on the stochastic environment with carbon emission allowance price process simulated by geometric Brownian motion. Under the overall goal of maximizing the ultimate profitability, the optimal stopping indicates the timing of suspend or halt of production, hence the optimal stopping boundary curve implies the edge of life and death with regard to this enterprise. Applying this methodology, real cases of failure and survival of several Chinese representative thermal power plants were analyzed to explore the industry ecotope, which leads to the findings that: 1) The survival environment of existed thermal power plants becomes severer when facing more pressure from the newborn carbon-finance market. 2) Boundaries of survival environment is mainly drawn by the technical improvements for rising the utilization rate of carbon emission. Based on the same optimal stopping model, outlook of this industry is drawn with a demarcation surface defining the vivosphere of thermal power plants with different levels of profitability. This finding provides benchmarks for those enterprises struggling for survival and policy makers scheming better supervision and necessary intervene, and the methodology developed in this paper provides a research paradigm for enterprise survival analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]