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• We combine stakeholder engagement and agent-based modelling to assess risks and uncertainties of sustainable charcoal policy. • Stakeholders valued the ability to access detailed information and compare scenarios on financial flows and biomass extraction. • Model results for the sustainable charcoal pathway showed sharp decline in overharvesting and increase in fiscal revenues. • The overall approach was sufficiently general to apply elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. As cities in East Africa keep growing, so too will demand for charcoal – the region's preferred urban fuel – placing increasing pressure on rural landscapes where it is produced. How can charcoal production and supply be made sustainable? What are the implications of sustainable charcoal policies and practices for achieving a low-carbon pathway and protecting the environment? This paper presents case study research focusing on Kitui County, one of the main charcoal production areas in Kenya. Risk and uncertainty of sustainable charcoal policies in Kitui were assessed using complementary methods of stakeholder workshops, informant interviews and agent-based modelling. This interdisciplinary approach combined policy research and simulation modelling, where local perspectives and data were included directly in the modelling. These methods facilitated critique of behaviour concerning agency and corruption. Stakeholders valued the ability to access detailed information on micro-interactions and consider policy performance regarding both financial flows and biomass extraction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Current carbon accounting methodologies do not accommodate activities that involve emissions reductions from both land-use change and energy production. This paper analyzes the climate change mitigation potential of charcoal production in East Africa by examining the impact of changing both land management and technology. Current production in a major charcoal producing region of Kenya where charcoal is made as a by-product of land clearance for commercial grain production is modeled as the “business-as-usual” scenario. Alternative production systems are proposed based on coppice management of native or exotic trees. Improved kilns are also considered. Changes in aboveground, belowground, and soil carbon are modeled and two distinct baseline assessments are analyzed: one is based on a fixed area of land and one is based on the quantity of non-renewable fuel that is displaced by project activities. The magnitude of carbon emissions reductions varies depending on land management as well as the choice of carbonization technology. However, these variations are smaller than the variations arising from the choice of baseline methodology. The fixed-land baseline yields annualized carbon emission reductions equivalent to 0.5–2.8tons per year (ty−1) with no change in production technology and 0.7–3.5ty−1 with improved kilns. In contrast, the baseline defined by the quantity of displaced non-renewable fuel is 2–6 times larger, yielding carbon emissions reductions of 1.4–12.9ty−1 with no change in production technology and 3.2–20.4ty−1 with improved kilns. The results demonstrate the choice of baseline, often a political rather than scientific decision, is critical in assessing carbon emissions reductions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]