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Abstract: The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate conditions, which may vary in light of possible global climate change (GCC). Long-term energy planning, however, does not normally take possible future GCC into consideration, which may turn out to be a risky exercise. In the case of Brazil, the untapped wind power potential is known to be impressive, provided that climate conditions remain the same over time. The focus of this study is to analyze some possible impacts of GCC on the wind power potential of Brazil, by simulating wind conditions associated with the IPCC A2 and B2 Scenarios. Results based on the HadCM3 general circulation model and the analysis of the country''s wind database indicate that the wind power potential in Brazil would not be jeopardized in the future due to possible new climate conditions. On the contrary, improved wind conditions are expected, particularly in the Northeast coast of the country. Therefore, investments in wind power generation can be an interesting way to expand renewable energy production in Brazil. However, given the large uncertainties associated with GCC models and scenarios, the findings of this paper should be viewed as a possibility rather than as a projection. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

[Display omitted] • Future impacts of LULC and climate on the streamflow and erosion by new approaches. • SWAT model was applied to estimate future runoff-erosion. • Future climate data generated using GCM coupled to regional circulation model. • The methodology contextualizes potentially significant hydrological changes. • The changes may impact the sustainability of water resources management. Water management in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone in Brazil is critically dependent on better understanding of potential future changes in streamflow and sediment dynamics. This paper evaluates both the future impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes and the impacts of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Tapacurá River basin in northeastern Brazil, using a novel combination of approaches. Projected climate data derived using global circulation model HadGEM2-ES were coupled to regional circulation model ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), with bias correction. Two future LULC scenarios were generated: (a) optimistic (current LULC), and (b) pessimistic (land use change trends continue), using the multilayer perceptron algorithm (MP). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to estimate future streamflow and erosion for different periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099). The SWAT model was calibrated for period of 1995–2003 and validated for 2004–2013. The results showed good accuracy in relation to R2, NSE and PBIAS for the calibration and validation of the runoff, as well as for the verification of the sediment yield. Simulations indicated significant increases in erosion for the pessimistic scenario under RCP 8.5, followed by the pessimistic scenario and RCP 4.5. Lower sediment yields occurred for the optimistic and RCP 8.5, with lower still for the optimistic and RCP 4.5. However, the latter estimates are still considerably higher than baseline conditions. Although higher flows are found for some scenarios, the increases in sediment yield have serious implications for reservoir siltation and storage reduction. Despite modeling uncertainty, the results demonstrate that the proposed methodology has promising scope to contextualize potentially significant regional hydrological changes which have implications for land and biodiversity management and the sustainability of water resources in the Caatinga/Atlantic forest ecotone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change effects can have significant impacts worldwide. Extreme events can modify water availability and agricultural production, making climate change planning an essential task. The National Institute for Space Research (INPE in Portuguese) in Brazil has made a large dataset of regional climate model outputs (simulations and projections) available, which opens up many possibilities of carrying out high-resolution climate change studies. However, there is still no performance evaluation of the model-derived rainfall output against high-resolution ground-based observation data considering the Brazilian biomes. This paper attempts to fill this gap and evaluates the simulated precipitation throughout Brazil. We used gridded observed precipitation data and historical climate simulations from the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 5 (MIROC5) and from the Hadley Center Global Environment Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), which were downscaled by the Eta RCM (Regional Climate Model). For the overlapping period (1980–2005), there is good agreement (PBIAS up to 10%) of downscaled annual simulations for the Amazon and Cerrado biomes and large biases (reaching 40%) in the Pampa biome, compared to the observations. Our results showed that HadGEM2-ES is capable of representing long-term mean monthly precipitation for large areas well, such as the Amazon and Cerrado. Furthermore, the Eta RCM has considerably improved the driving GCM MIROC5 simulations. In conclusion, we recommend using the HadGEM2-ES simulations for the Amazon, Eta/HadGEM2-ES for the Atlantic Forest, Cerrado, and Pampa, and Eta/MIROC5 for the Caatinga and Pantanal. Our study provides an overview of two downscaled simulation datasets in Brazil that may help verify the models' suitability for further climate change assessments. • We evaluated the so far most detailed precipitation projections for Brazil. • We compared the Eta RCM and driving GCMs against high-resolution observed dataset. • HadGEM2-ES GCM can represent the precipitation for large areas, such as the Amazon. • Eta RCM considerably improved the MIROC5 GCM precipitation simulations in all biomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]