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In the face of a changing climate, a growing number of construction firms are adopting carbon reduction targets on individual projects and across their portfolios. In the wake of the Paris Agreement, some firms are seeking a means of aligning their targets with sectoral, national and international mitigation commitments. There are numerous ways by which such an alignment can be achieved, each requiring different assumptions. Using data from the UK construction industry, this paper reviews current company commitments and progress in carbon mitigation; analyses the unique challenges in aligning construction targets, and presents a series of possible sectoral decarbonisation trajectories. The results highlight the disparity between current company targets and the range of possible trajectories. It is clear that a cross-industry dialogue is urgently required to establish an appropriate response that delivers both a widely-accepted target trajectory and a plan for its delivery. This paper is intended to stimulate and support this necessary debate by illustrating the impact of different methodological assumptions and highlighting the critical features of an appropriate response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Building energy use accounts for almost 50% of the total CO2 emissions in the UK. Most of the research has focused on reducing the operational impact of buildings, however in recent years many studies have indicated the significance of embodied energy in different building types. This paper primarily focuses on illustrating the relative importance of operational and embodied energy in a flexible use light distribution warehouse. The building is chosen for the study as it is relatively easy to model and represents many distribution centres and industrial warehouses in Europe. A carbon footprinting study was carried out by conducting an inventory of the major installed materials with potentially significant carbon impact and material substitutions covering the building structure. Ecotect computer simulation program was used to determine the energy consumption for the 25 years design life of the building. This paper evaluates alternative design strategies for the envelope of the building and their effects on the whole life emissions by investigating both embodied and operational implications of changing the envelope characteristics. The results provide an insight to quantify the total amount of CO2 emissions saved through design optimisation by modeling embodied and operational energy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Network Enabled Capability (NEC) is the UK Ministry of Defence’s response to the quickly changing conflict environment in which its forces must operate. In NEC, systems need to be integrated in context, to assist in human activity and provide dependable inter-operation. In this paper, we present our research work in the NECTISE project with a focus on the modelling and simulation of service-oriented architecture (SOA) for delivering dependable and sustainable military capability. The simulation results indicate that the proposed architectural model can provide a high-level of reliability and sustainability in the provision of capability in a dynamic environment. Moreover, a NEC demonstration system for regional surveillance is introduced in this paper to illustrate the use of SOA to achieve NEC. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In highly motorised countries, some sectors of the population own and use cars despite struggling to afford their running costs, and so may be particularly vulnerable to motor fuel prices increases, whether market-led or policy-driven. This paper proposes a novel, disaggregated approach to investigating vulnerability to such increases at the household level. We propose a set of indicators of ‘car-related economic stress’ (CRES), based on individual household level expenditure data for the UK, to identify which low-income households spend disproportionately on running motor vehicles, and to assess the depth of their economic stress. By subsequently linking the dataset to local fuel price data, we are able to model the disaggregated price elasticities of car fuel demand. This provides us with an indicator of each household’s adaptive capacity to fuel price increases. The findings show that ‘Low Income, High Cost’ households (LIHC) account for 9% of UK households and have distinct socio-demographic characteristics. Interestingly, they are characterised by very low responses to fuel price increases, which may cause them to compromise on other important areas of their household expenditures. Simulations suggest that a 20% increase in fuel prices would substantially increase the depth, but not the incidence of CRES. Overall, the study sheds light on a sector of the population with high levels of vulnerability to fuel price increases, owing to high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. This raises challenges for social, environmental and resilience policy in the transport sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discolouration is an international phenomenon in drinking water distribution systems due to erosion of particulate material layers. In the UK water companies are implementing hydraulic layer conditioning for maintenance and resilience with significant cost benefits, despite limited understanding of the material accumulation processes. In this paper 18 months turbidity data from a 4 km trunk main is simulated using four extended period Epanet MSX model formulations. The measured data demonstrates recurrent regeneration of discolouration risk and hydraulic conditioning as pro-active mitigation. Modelling facilitates investigation of layer regeneration processes, helping inform future discolouration models and operational strategies to safeguard water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: An archetypal simulation model of office building representing variability in UK office building stock by parameterising built form, construction elements, occupancy/usage and operational/control strategy has been developed thus enabling detailed energy performance simulation to be used for stock modelling and parametric studies. The paper discusses the building characteristics needed to be considered for energy performance simulation, their values, and how they can be used in parametric studies. These parameters include built forms, fabrics (including thermal mass and insulation positioning), glazing percentages and characteristics, daylight and solar control measures and activity and operational related parameters (heating and cooling set points, ventilation rate, occupancy density and metabolic rate, equipment and lighting gain). The default parameter values suggested for the archetypal simulation model reflect typical existing and currently proposed UK office building stock. An archetypal model, combined with parametric studies, can be used in assessing energy performance of building stock and evaluating adaptation/retrofitting strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Low Carbon Futures project, funded by the Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARCC) Programme, has the objective of using the latest UK climate projections (UKCP’09) to assess overheating in a range of domestic and non-domestic buildings. As these climate projections are probabilistic in nature, and dynamic building simulation is being used by the project to assess building performance, the information produced is vast. To understand how to filter this data into a useable tool that can interact with current building practices, the project has commissioned a range of focus groups to obtain practitioner feedback. These focus groups provide guidance on how buildings are currently designed with respect to overheating but also how future overheating risk assessments, incorporating probabilistic climate projections, might be carried out. This paper describes the assimilation of all this research into a coherent building simulation methodology that could be used by building practitioners to assess future overheating risks of a range of buildings, and provide guidance for applying adaptation solutions to prevent defined comfort thresholds being exceeded. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent activity in the development of future weather data for building performance simulation follows recognition of the limitations of traditional methods, which have been based on a stationary (observed) climate. In the UK, such developments have followed on from the availability of regional climate models as delivered in UKCIP02 and recently the probabilistic projections released under UKCP09. One major area of concern is the future performance and adaptability of buildings which employ exclusively passive or low-energy cooling systems. One such method which can be employed in an integral or retrofit situation is direct or indirect evaporative cooling. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling is most strongly influenced by the wet-bulb depression of the ambient air, hence is generally regarded as most suited to hot, dry climates. However, this technology has been shown to be effective in the UK, primarily in mixed-mode buildings or as a retrofit to industrial/commercial applications. Climate projections for the UK generally indicate an increase in the summer wet-bulb depression, suggesting an enhanced potential for the application of evaporative cooling. The paper illustrates this potential by an analysis of the probabilistic scenarios released under UKCP09, together with a detailed building/plant simulation of case study building located in the South-East of England. The results indicate a high probability that evaporative cooling will still be a viable low-energy technique in the 2050s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper uses probabilistic climate change data from the UK Climate Change Projections 2009 to define extreme climate change in order to model the effect of future temperature change, particularly summer overheating on the energy consumption of, and comfort in, existing English homes (located in Oxford). Climate change risk is then analysed as a factor of climate hazard, exposure and vulnerability. With the risk of overheating theoretically identified, the risk of overheating and the future change impact on space heating energy use is then virtually detailed for four English home types modelled using future weather years in a dynamic simulation modelling software (IES). A range of passive adaptation measures are then critically reviewed with regard to their effectiveness in minimising the negative impacts of climate change and to identify the most effective measures in reducing or eliminating the negative impacts of climate change on comfort and energy consumption. In addition the adaptation options are grouped and tested as packages in order to identify the optimal solution for adaptive retrofitting of English homes. For all homes modelled, user-controlled shading proved to be the most effective adaptation. Increasing the surface albedo of the building fabric and exposure of thermal mass were also revealed to be effective although proving to be complicated and requiring detailed consideration of the optimal locations. Ultimately among the passive options tested, the research found that none could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in the homes, particularly by the 2080s. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes the analysis of the hygrothermal behaviours of stabilised rammed earth (SRE) walls used in a building in the UK. The analysis was achieved by computer simulation using WUFI Plus v1.2 whole building hygrothermal analysis software. To validate the model, an unoccupied test room in an unheated SRE building was monitored for 10 months. The hygrothermal properties of the SRE material were measured in the laboratory. It is shown that the SRE walls significantly reduced the amplitude of relative humidity fluctuations in the room air and reduced the frequency of high humidity periods at the wall surface. By adapting the model to represent an occupied and conditioned space, it is demonstrated that SRE walls have the potential to reduce the energy demand for humidification/dehumidification plant. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Traditionally, researchers have employed statistical methods to model crime. However, these approaches are limited by being unable to model individual actions and behaviour. Brantingham and Brantingham (1993) described that in their opinion a useful and productive model for simulating crime would have the ability to model the occurrence of crime and the motivations behind it both temporally and spatially. This paper presents the construction and application of an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating occurrences of residential burglary at an individual level. It presents a novel framework that allows both human and environmental factors to be simulated. Although other agent-based models of crime do exist, this research represents the first working example of integrating a behavioural framework into an ABM for the simulation of crime. An artificial city, loosely based on the real city of Leeds, UK, and an artificial population were constructed, and experiments were run to explore the potential of the model to realistically simulate the main processes and drivers within this system. The results are highly promising, demonstrating the potential of this approach for both understanding processes behind crime and improving policies and developing effective crime prevention strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]