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Abstract: The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO2 price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO2 emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Community Multi-Scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) is used to assess regional air quality conditions for a wide range of chemical species throughout the United States (U.S.). CMAQ representation of the regional nitrogen budget is limited by its treatment of ammonia (NH3) soil emission from, and deposition to underlying surfaces as independent rather than tightly coupled processes, and by its reliance on soil emission estimates that do not respond to variable meteorology and ambient chemical conditions. The present study identifies an approach that addresses these limitations, lends itself to regional application, and will better position CMAQ to meet future assessment challenges. These goals were met through the integration of the resistance-based flux model of with elements of the United States Department of Agriculture EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Model integration centers on the estimation of ammonium and hydrogen ion concentrations in the soil required to estimate soil NH3 flux. The EPIC model was calibrated using data collected during an intensive 2007 field study in Lillington, North Carolina. A simplified process model based on the nitrification portion of EPIC was developed and evaluated. It was then combined with the model and measurements of near-surface NH3 concentrations to simulate soil NH3 flux at the field site. Finally, the integrated flux (emission) results were scaled upward and compared to recent national ammonia emission inventory estimates. The integrated model results are shown to be more temporally resolved (daily), while maintaining good agreement with established soil emission estimates at longer time-scales (monthly). Although results are presented for a single field study, the process-based nature of this approach and NEI comparison suggest that inclusion of this flux model in a regional application should produce useful assessment results if nationally consistent sources of driving soil and agricultural management information are identified. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard is the major policy tool to improve the fleet average miles per gallon of automobile manufacturers in the US. The Alternative Motor Fuels Act (AMFA) provides special treatment in calculating the fuel economy of alternative-fuel vehicles to give manufacturers CAFE incentives to produce more alternative-fuel vehicles. AMFA has as its goals an increase in the production of alternative-fuel vehicles and a decrease in gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper examines theoretically the effects of the program set up under AMFA. It finds that, under some conditions, this program may actually increase the production of fuel-inefficient gasoline vehicles, gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The discussion about what reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required and how the emissions rights might be distributed globally has fostered the belief that there is a fundamental conflict between the rich nations of the “North” and the poor but populous nations of the “South.” The argument is that grandfathering the rights will only reinforce existing global inequalities, while per capita distribution of the rights would lead to such huge transfers of wealth to the South as to be unacceptable to the North. However, a very simple general equilibrium model highlighting key elements of the global economy shows that this perception is incorrect under a plausible interpretation of the goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to “avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Instead of using an economic damage function to determine the optimal level of emissions reductions, the model''s utility functions are calibrated to reflect scientific understanding of what would be required to stabilize the atmosphere at safe concentrations of greenhouse gases. Among policy options that would accomplish this, the United States has a preference for grandfathering the allocation of emissions rights over a per capita allocation, but this preference is not strong and could be offset by other geopolitical considerations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]