Search

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is believed to be the most promising technology to mitigate climate change and global temperature rise. As an effective method for reducing carbon emissions, carbon dioxide (CO 2) storage on the seabed can be achieved by injecting captured CO 2 from offshore platforms into subsea storage sites, such as the sediment layers, depleted oil and gas reservoirs and deep saline aquifers, thereby permanently removing it from the atmosphere. Additionally, hundreds to thousands of meters of seawater above seabed storage layers provide naturally high seawater pressure and abundant barrier settings that can reduce leakage risk. Consequently, this has become an ideal storage location for long-term CO 2 storage. In order to thoroughly investigate the mechanism and potential of marine CO 2 storage and promote further development of CCUS, this paper provides a comprehensive description of theoretical research of marine CO 2 geological storage, including storage mechanisms, storage capacity, wellbore flow, CO 2 migration, cap rocks integrity and CO 2 leakage monitoring. The implementation status of global engineering projects is summarized. Currently, there are relatively few successful marine storage projects globally, with the majority of others still in the research and testing stages. Finally, the challenges and prospects of marine CO 2 storage are also discussed. This review demonstrates the enormous potential and promising future of marine CO 2 storage, but there are also leakage risks. It can be avoided through in-depth theoretical research to clarify the entire process of storage mechanisms and take corresponding technological measures. Ultimately, a new technology for large-scale efficient injection and enhanced storage of marine CO 2 storage will be formed. • Marine CO 2 storage has enormous potential and promising prospects. • The flow of CO 2 in the storage reservoir will cause phase change, heat transfer, storage leakage, etc. • Remote monitoring technology can prevent CO 2 leakage. • Storage projects require adequate funding and policy support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health. • Frequency of hot-dry events and hot-humidity events will increase and decrease, respectively, in the future. • There are abrupt points and periodicity in the future time series of compound temperature and precipitation extremes. • Asia is projected to have the greatest exposure and climate change contributes the most to exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To accurately measure in situ stresses using overcore techniques, the key is to find the relationship between the stresses and measured strains on the wellbore wall and on the core at two stages, i.e. before and after overcoring. For gas shales, where there exist large pressure and temperature changes, we developed an analytical model for the stage before overcoring to study the evolution of all field variables, i.e. temperature, pressure, stress, strain and displacement (TPSSD), when an inclined wellbore is drilled in an infinite and homogenous thermo-poro-elastic media (THM) subjected to three far-field principal stresses, whose axes may not coincide with the horizontal and vertical planes. In that paper we investigated the thermal and poro-elastic effects on the strain changes around and especially at the wellbore wall. As an extension of the previous work. In this paper, we describe an analytical model to give the mechanical responses of the wellbore and core for the stage after overcoring. Strain changes at the wellbore wall are examined in detail because these are measured by the overcore method. By using the analytical solutions presented at a specific time and the strains before overcoring as an initial state, the transient solutions for the evolution of temperature, pressure, stress, strain and displacement (TPSSD) are obtained so that for the two critical stages before and after overcoring a reasonable estimate of the in situ stresses can be obtained. As well as the strain changes, the temperature and pressure at the wellbore wall, which vary with time, are also required to find in situ stresses in the inverse model. Fortunately, their effects become progressively less important with time due to the small size of overcored sample. The critical time is calculated when the thermal and porous effects can be ignored. Two cases, i.e. constant and exponentially time-varying temperature boundary conditions, are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Gupta et al., (2015), analyzed whether sunspot numbers cause global temperatures based on monthly data covering the period 1880:1–2013:9. The authors find that standard time domain Granger causality test fails to reject the null hypothesis that sunspot numbers do not cause global temperatures for both full and sub-samples, namely 1880:1–1936:2, ​1936:3–1986:11 and 1986:12–2013:9 (identified based on tests of structural breaks). However, frequency domain causality test detects predictability for the full-sample at short (2–2.6 months) cycle lengths, but not the sub-samples. But since, full-sample causality cannot be relied upon due to structural breaks, Gupta et al., (2015) conclude that the evidence of causality running from sunspot numbers to global temperatures is weak and inconclusive. Given the importance of the issue of global warming, our current paper aims to revisit this issue of whether sunspot numbers cause global temperatures, using the same data set and sub-samples used by Gupta et al., (2015), based on an nonparametric Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA)-based causality test. Based on this test, we however, show that sunspot numbers have predictive ability for global temperatures for the three sub-samples, over and above the full-sample. Thus, generally speaking, our non-parametric SSA-based causality test outperformed both time domain and frequency domain causality tests and highlighted that sunspot numbers have always been important in predicting global temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the kinematic parameters and the positioning accuracy of robot end effectors influenced by temperature factors. Temperature factors include robot self-heating and environmental temperature changes. This paper also builds the thermal distribution model and deformation model using finite element theory. A thermal compensation strategy is presented to validate the significant correlation between the robot kinematics parameters and previous thermal models mentioned above. It is convenient and suitable for industrial field. Thermal compensation is experimentally proved to adjust the position error of the end effectors by less than 0.1 mm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration in the ambient air has become the key factor in the pace of temperature rise, and accordingly, is a primary contributor towards global warming scenario. In view of this, the quick mitigation efforts associated with capturing CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion source must be implemented to alleviate environmental catastrophic events in future. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to review the role and performances of activated carbon in capturing anthropogenic CO 2 flue gas prior to emission to air. Throughout this paper, the activated carbons which were proposed to be a separation medium for CO 2 capture are evaluated in terms of equilibrium adsorption capacity as well as the surface modification. The utilization of the activated carbons instead of current state-of-art technology, which is the chemical absorption is promising as it avoids higher energy penalty encountered in regeneration process and the consumption of corrosive chemical such as aqueous amine-based solvent. In addition, the investigation on the potential of activated carbons for post-combustion CO 2 capture is expected to confer scientists with critical information related to the future direction of the activated carbons in an industrial application, and as an alternative to conventional amine scrubbing process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first of two numbered papers for this Special Issue dealing with the ecological basis of environmentalism. The second follows, in a subsequent issue if not here. Patten (2013) gives a short preview of both papers. Problems of environmentalism—environmental protection, conservation, and preservation—are now widely appreciated as important to human enterprise and destiny. Called to attention by advances in descriptive empirical ecology, the new problems are too complex for this same ecology to solve without further expansion of basic knowledge. To understand how nature works two kinds of science are needed, one empirical, describing what is immediate and tangible, the other theoretical, developing first-principles understanding of what is indirect and intangible. Development of a complex systems theory based ecology is hindered by over-commitment of attention and resources to applied environmentalism. This may in its inadequacy run counter to how nature works, which could be detrimental to both humanity and nature. It is important to get the science right. As background for a revisionary hypothesis presented in Part II, five elements of basic ecology and five of applied environmentalism are here reviewed. The basic topics are ecological energetics, linear vs. nonlinear dynamics, steady vs. non-steady states, epistemic mediation, and indirect effects. The environmental topics are overpopulation, biodiversity, invasive species, sustainability, and global change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Participatory methods to build local resilience often involve the organization of local community groups. When global organizations use such methods, it reflects a desire to incorporate local agency. They thereby acknowledge the ability of a society to be innovative and adapt when faced with natural disasters and climate change. In a globalized world, however, it is hard to discern what is “local” as global organizations play an increasingly visible and powerful role. This paper will argue that local understandings and practices of resilience cannot be disentangled from global understandings and practices. Rather, global organizations, while professing an interest in drawing on local agency, may inadvertently also influence recipients’ perceptions of their own ability to be innovative and adapt, thereby limiting, as well as creating new spaces for, local agency. In the context of the 2007 severe flooding in northern Ghana, this paper examines the mutual construction of “local” and “global” notions and practices of resilience through multi-sited processes. It is based on interviews and participant observation in multiple sites at the “local,” “regional” and “global” levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract Biomass has often been regarded as a promising renewable energy resource to mitigate climate change. However, what will be the impact on global surface temperature if biomass replace fossil fuel remain unclear. This paper, through a case study in Uttar Pradesh, India address this issue by assessing biomass resource potential to reduce fossil fuel demand and mitigate climate change. Impact of biomass power related GHG emissions on global surface temperature is estimated using the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) climate metric. Uttar Pradesh can produce 71 Mt surplus biomass annually, equivalent to 7298 MW power. Power density of biomass range between 0.10 and 0.25 Wm-2. Significant amount of GHG emissions reduction is possible if biomass replace fossil fuel as a power source in the region. Annual GHG emissions associated with 1 MWh of power derived from coal, natural gas and biomass would cause 4.10 × 10−7, 2.40 × 10−7 and 1.25 × 10−7 mK rise in global surface temperature, 100 years after an initial emission, indicating potential of biomass power to mitigate climate change. Variation in spatio-temporal distribution and low power density could be delimiting factors in large-scale deployment of biomass power. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Biomass resources and power potentials are assessed for Uttar Pradesh, India. • GHG emissions from biomass power is assessed and compared with fossil fuels. • Climatic impact of power generation is assessed via novel climate metric. • Biomass power can mitigate climate change by replacing fossil fuels. • Spatio-temporal variability and low power density are limitations of biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse whether (anthropometric) CO 2 can forecast global temperature anomaly (GT) over an annual out-of-sample period of 1907–2012, which corresponds to an initial in-sample of 1880–1906. For our purpose, we use 12 parametric and nonparametric univariate (of GT only) and multivariate (including both GT and CO 2 ) models. Our results show that the Horizontal Multivariate Singular Spectral Analysis (HMSSA) techniques (both Recurrent (-R) and Vector (-V)) consistently outperform the other competing models. More importantly, from the performance of the HMSSA-V model we find conclusive evidence that CO 2 can forecast GT, and also predict its direction of change. Our results highlight the superiority of the nonparametric approach of SSA, which in turn, allows us to handle any statistical process: linear or nonlinear, stationary or non-stationary, Gaussian or non-Gaussian. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate predictions of drought events to plan and manage the adverse effects of drought on agriculture and the environment requires tools that precisely predict standardized drought metrics. Improving on the World Meteorological Organization approved Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the multi-scalar Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index ( SPE I), a variant of the SPI, is a relatively recent drought index, which takes into account the impacts of temperature change on overall dryness, along with precipitation and evapotranspiration effects. In this paper, an extreme learning machine (ELM) model was applied to predict SPE I in a drought-prone region in eastern Australia, and the quality of the model's performance was compared to that of a multiple linear regression (MLR), an artificial neural network (ANN), and a least support vector regression (LSSVR) model. The SPE I data were derived from climatic variables recorded at six weather stations between January 1915 and December 2012. Model performance was evaluated by means of the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), normalized mean absolute error (NMAE), coefficients of determination (r 2 ), and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NASH) in the testing period. Results showed that the ELM and ANN models outperformed the MLR and LSSVR models, and all four models revealed a greater predictive accuracy for the 12-month compared to the 3-month SPE I predictions. For the 12-month SPE I predictions, optimal models had r 2 that ranged from 0.668 for the LSSVR model (Station 6) to 0.894 for the ANN model (Station 4). The good agreement between observed and predicted SPE I at different locations within the study region indicated the potential of the developed models to contribute to a more thorough understanding of potential future drought-risks in eastern Australia, and their applicability to drought assessments over multiple timescales. The models and findings have useful implications for water resources assessment in drought-prone regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the author discusses the errors in the paper by Robert M. Carter which focuses on human-caused global warming. He believes that the paper contains flaws since it failed to deliver accurate data on the works of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He contends that Carter committed unsubstantiated allegations because of his assertions on the termination of rising temperature in 1998, the urban heat island effect and the effects of human activities on temperature.

Abstract: Mass media in the U.S. continue to suggest that scientific consensus estimates of global climate disruption, such as those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are “exaggerated” and overly pessimistic. By contrast, work on the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge (ASC) suggests that such consensus assessments are likely to understate climate disruptions. This paper offers an initial test of the competing expectations, making use of the tendency for science to be self-correcting, over time. Rather than relying in any way on the IPCC process, the paper draws evidence about emerging science from four newspapers that have been found in past work to be biased against reporting IPCC findings, consistently reporting instead that scientific findings are “in dispute.” The analysis considers two time periods — one during the time when the papers were found to be overstating challenges to then-prevailing scientific consensus, and the other focusing on 2008, after the IPCC and former Vice-President Gore shared the Nobel Prize for their work on climate disruption, and before opinion polls showed the U.S. public to be growing more skeptical toward climate science once again. During both periods, new scientific findings were more than twenty times as likely to support the ASC perspective than the usual framing of the issue in the U.S. mass media. The findings indicate that supposed challenges to the scientific consensus on global warming need to be subjected to greater scrutiny, as well as showing that, if reporters wish to discuss “both sides” of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate “other side” is that, if anything, global climate disruption may prove to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change exerts influence on the globe over relatively long temporal and at broad spatial scales. However, at the local scale in which communities undertake their daily activities, changes in land-use may result in changes that accumulate and manifest more quickly in the landscape. In this paper we set out a methodology for identifying social–ecological system (SES) vulnerabilities in the landscape with respect to freshwater resources for Arctic communities. A multiple-scale approach is used at regional and watershed scales and is demonstrated for the Seward Peninsula region, Alaska and the Fish River watershed on Seward Peninsula but may be applied elsewhere. The approach includes change in permafrost distribution as an important effect of climate change, and change in mining activity as an important land-use effect. Vulnerability in the SES is identified as a consequence of spatially coinciding values. The resulting patterns of vulnerability highlight the interaction between changes, which act on slower temporal scales (e.g., permafrost distribution) and changes which act more quickly (e.g., downstream aggregation of mining activity). These results are discussed in the context of using the integration approach outlined in this paper to better enable communities’ responses to change at local scales in such a way that they are both adaptive and resilient. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – comprised of top climate scientists from around the globe – has reached consensus that human activities have contributed significantly to global climate change. However, over time, the United States has refused to join concerted international efforts – such as the Kyoto Protocol – to curb human activities contributing to climate change. US newspaper and television media constitute key influences among a set of complex dynamics shaping information dissemination in this politicized environment. Mass-media coverage of climate change is not simply a random amalgam of newspaper articles and television segments; rather, it is a social relationship between scientists, policy actors and the public that is mediated by such news packages. This paper demonstrates that consistent adherence to interacting journalistic norms has contributed to impediments in the coverage of anthropogenic climate change science. Through analysis of US newspaper and television coverage of human contributions to climate change from 1988 through 2004, this paper finds that adherence to first-order journalistic norms – personalization, dramatization, and novelty – significantly influence the employment of second-order norms – authority-order and balance – and that this has led to informationally deficient mass-media coverage of this crucial issue. By critically scrutinizing US print and television media as a ‘public arena,’ we improve understanding of how journalistic activities have shaped interactions at the interface with climate science, policy and the public. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Future sea level rise will lead to salt water intrusion, beach/dune recession, and many other coastal problems. This paper addresses a data based forecasting approach to provide relative sea level rise estimates at locations in Florida where historical water level data exist. Many past estimates of sea level rise have treated the rise as a linear straight line trend over the historical data set. The present paper has allowed for acceleration (or deceleration) in sea level rise to account for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming and consequent higher (than linear straight line) future sea levels similar to values noted by global climatic modelers. Results of the present analysis show sea level rise for Florida being higher than past straight line trend results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

NEMURO, the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography, simulates the temporal evolution and dynamics of the North Pacific''s nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton food web. The approach of developing a single model formulation allowed quantitative comparisons across various locations and time periods. Building on a common foundation enabled the linkages between lower trophic levels to the higher trophic (fish) components to proceed systematically. NEMURO was extended to NEMURO. FISH by using the lower trophic level output of NEMURO as input to a bioenergetic-based model of fish growth and population dynamics. This paper summarizes the contributions of individual papers that comprise this issue of Ecological Modelling and that all used the NEMURO family of models. Contributions represent a rich set of case-studies and in-depth modeling studies focused on the North Pacific that addressed: oceanic biogeochemistry, regional and seasonal variability of phytoplankton and zooplankton, reconstruction of 40–50 years of plankton dynamics, effects of climate on herring and saury growth and population dynamics, the feasibility of automatic calibration methods, the sensitivity of the model to parameter values, and projections of future states of the ecosystem under global warming. Next steps in the evolution of NEMURO are suggested and include increased resolution of the physical model underlying NEMURO, the addition of new biological state variables at the lower trophic levels to better represent the diversity of oceanic species and their potential for different responses under changing environmental conditions, and the addition of more higher trophic level species to allow for inter-specific (competition and predation) interactions. The NEMURO effort involved a diverse group of researchers working jointly on a common problem for several years. Consequently, the resulting contributions, even at the level of the individual papers, provide a broader perspective and integration of the results than would have occurred by working in isolation. The benefits of a large-scale collaborative effort to develop a common model formulation are clearly illustrated by the papers in this issue. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In times of climate change, growing world populations, and with clear evidence of the depletion or damage to critical resources, it is imperative to take action to sustain and develop the capacity of agricultural and manufacturing systems to continue to provide food, the most basic of human needs. Functional foods, generally defined as foods that provide benefits beyond basic nutrition, represent an important growth category for the commercial sector in many countries around the world. Because of widespread concerns about risks to health, the public is vulnerable to messages about potential health protective advantages of foods formulated in response to emerging nutrition science. This paper argues that it is important to finds ways to evaluate the effects of innovation in this sector. Now more broadly defined, the concept of sustainability provides guidelines for decision-making and a framework for assessing the impact of the development of functional foods as a health protective panacea for diet-related human health problems. However, this paper concludes that when criteria for sustainable practice are applied, there are some strong arguments in support of delaying investment in the development and promotion of functional foods to the general public. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition is of considerable ecosphysiological importance, especially in the context of possible climate-change feedback effects. It effectively controls whether, or how much, carbon will be released with global warming, and to what extent that release of carbon constitutes a dangerous positive feedback effect that leads to further warming. The present paper is an invited contribution in a series of Citation Classics based on a review paper of the temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition that was published in 1995. It discusses the context and main findings of the 1995 study, the progress has been made since then and what issues still remain unresolved. Despite the continuation of much further experimental work and repeated publication of summary articles, there is still no scientific consensus on the temperature dependence of organic matter decomposition. It is likely that this lack of consensus is largely due to different studies referring to different experimental conditions where confounding factors play a greater or lesser role. Substrate availability is particularly important. If it changes during the course of measurements, it can greatly confound the derived apparent temperature dependence. This confounding effect is illustrated through simulations and examples of experimental work drawn from the literature. The paper speculates that much of the current disagreement between studies might disappear if different studies would ensure that they are all studying the same system attributes, and if confounding factors were always considered and, if possible, eliminated. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recycling of waste materials has been analysed from a life cycle perspective in a number of studies over the past 10–15 years. Publications comparing the global warming impact and total energy use of recycling versus incineration and landfilling were reviewed in order to find out to what extent they agree or contradict each other, and whether there are generally applicable conclusions to be drawn when certain key factors are considered. Four key factors with a significant influence on the ranking between recycling, incineration, and landfilling were identified. Producing materials from recycled resources is often, but not always, less energy intensive and causes less global warming impact than from virgin resources. For non-renewable materials the savings are of such a magnitude, that apparently the only really crucial factor is what material is replaced. For paper products, however, the savings of recycling are much smaller. The ranking between recycling and incineration of paper is sensitive to for instance paper quality, energy source avoided by incineration, and energy source at the mill. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Climate is an important input to many human activities. Climate affects heating and cooling requirements, health, clothing and nutritional needs as well as recreational activities. As such, it is to be expected that individuals will have a preference for particular types of climate. This paper analyses a panel of 67 countries attempting to explain differences in self-reported levels of happiness by reference to, amongst other things, temperature and precipitation. Various indices are used for each of these variables, including means, extremes and the number of hot, cold, wet and dry months. Using a panel-corrected least squares approach, the paper demonstrates that, even when controlling for a range of other factors, climate variables have a highly significant effect on country-wide self-reported levels of happiness. On the basis of these results, it is determined that differential patterns of anthropogenically induced climate change might alter dramatically the distribution of happiness between nations, with some countries moving towards a preferred climate and others moving further away. We find that high-latitude countries included in our dataset might benefit from temperature changes. Countries already characterized by very high summer temperatures would most likely suffer losses from climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Any discussion of the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures should take into consideration the full range of possible climate change outcomes, including impacts that remain highly uncertain, like surprises and other climate irreversibilities. Real-world coupling between complex systems can cause them to exhibit new collective behaviours that are not clearly demonstrable by models that do not include such coupling. Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere–biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence. Furthermore, the harder and faster a system is perturbed, the higher the likelihood of such surprises—a conclusion that has significant bearing on the assessment of the potential benefits of the timing and stringency of GHG abatement measures. The paper concludes with a perspective on how to better incorporate uncertainty and surprise into integrated assessment models of climate change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The waters dominating the Brazilian Continental Shelf to the south of Santa Marta Cape (28°40′S) are marked by their strong interannual variability. Both the seasonal oscillation of the Brazil–Malvinas (Falkland) Confluence (BMC) region and the seasonal variations of the La Plata River and Patos Lagoon outflows are reflected in the seasonal changes of the vertical and horizontal water mass structure in the Southern Brazilian Shelf. In the region to the north of Santa Marta Cape, the shelf is mainly described in the literature as dominated by Tropical Waters (TW) transported southwards by the Brazil Current (BC). However, the first Lagrangian (buoy) measurements made on the inner Brazilian shelf have shown that a coastal current flowing in the opposite direction in relation to the BC occurred on the shelf as far north as 24°S during the 1993 austral autumn and winter. Recent papers have suggested that the arrival at low latitudes of cold waters originating in the BMC region is an anomalous phenomenon and that it can be either forced by local winds during wintertime or related to the ENSO. High-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) imagery and the Lagrangian measurements taken in 1993 and 1994 are used in this paper to describe the temperatures, velocity, energy and oscillations present in this coastal current. These two data sets show that the current is not only fed by waters of Subantarctic or coastal origin but also receives a contribution of TW at the surface by lateral mixing. By analysing a set of monthly averaged SST images from 1982 to 1995, this work suggests that the intrusion of cold waters transported by the coastal current can be a regular winter phenomenon occurring on the Brazilian shelf at latitudes up to the vicinity of 25°S. Given its consistency, this current is named here the Brazilian Coastal Current. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In the wake of the continued failure to mitigate greenhouse gases, researchers have explored the possibility of injecting aerosols into the stratosphere in order to cool global temperatures. This paper discusses whether Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) should be researched, on the controversial ethical assumption that reducing existential risk is overwhelmingly morally important. On the one hand, SAI could eliminate the environmental existential risks of climate change (arguably around a 1% chance of catastrophe), and reduce the risks of interstate conflict associated with extreme warming. Moreover, the risks of termination shock and unilateral deployment are overstated. On the other hand, SAI introduces risks of interstate conflict which are very difficult to quantify. Research into these security risks would be valuable, but also risks reducing willingness to mitigate. I conclude that the decision about whether to research SAI is one of ‘deep uncertainty’ or ‘complex cluelessness’, but that there is a tentative case for research initially primarily focused on the governance and security aspects of SAI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean temperature rise this century to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. This target has wide-ranging implications for Europe and its cities, which are the source of substantial greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports the state of local planning for climate change by collecting and analysing information about local climate mitigation and adaptation plans across 885 urban areas of the EU-28. A typology and framework for analysis was developed that classifies local climate plans in terms of their alignment with spatial (local, national and international) and other climate related policies. Out of eight types of local climate plans identified in total we document three types of stand-alone local climate plans classified as type A1 (autonomously produced plans), A2 (plans produced to comply with national regulations) or A3 (plans developed for international climate networks). There is wide variation among countries in the prevalence of local climate plans, with generally more plans developed by central and northern European cities. Approximately 66% of EU cities have a type A1, A2, or A3 mitigation plan, 26% an adaptation plan, and 17% a joint adaptation and mitigation plan, while about 33% lack any form of stand-alone local climate plan (i.e. what we classify as A1, A2, A3 plans). Mitigation plans are more numerous than adaptation plans, but planning for mitigation does not always precede planning for adaptation. Our analysis reveals that city size, national legislation, and international networks can influence the development of local climate plans. We found that size does matter as about 80% of the cities with above 500,000 inhabitants have a comprehensive and stand-alone mitigation and/or an adaptation plan (A1). Cities in four countries with national climate legislation (A2), i.e. Denmark, France, Slovakia and the United Kingdom, are nearly twice as likely to produce local mitigation plans, and five times more likely to produce local adaptation plans, compared to cities in countries without such legislation. A1 and A2 mitigation plans are particularly numerous in Denmark, Poland, Germany, and Finland; while A1 and A2 adaptation plans are prevalent in Denmark, Finland, UK and France. The integration of adaptation and mitigation is country-specific and can mainly be observed in two countries where local climate plans are compulsory, i.e. France and the UK. Finally, local climate plans produced for international climate networks (A3) are mostly found in the many countries where autonomous (type A1) plans are less common. This is the most comprehensive analysis of local climate planning to date. The findings are of international importance as they will inform and support decision-making towards climate planning and policy development at national, EU and global level being based on the most comprehensive and up-to-date knowledge of local climate planning available to date. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a choice experiment survey of tourists in Mallorca, Spain, to elicit preferences for designed policies aimed at addressing the attractiveness losses of the destination in the face of global warming. The study is novel in two main ways. First, it introduces the uncertainty deriving from the stochastic nature of global warming, not as a policy attribute but as an inherent feature of the valuation scenario. For this reason, the expected temperature change and its probability of occurrence were kept constant across alternatives but not across different choice tasks. Second, it measures the willingness-to-pay for a set of pro-environmental policies under different framings. Results show that the inclusion of uncertainty shapes individuals' decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subsurface shallow depth soil layer (SSDSL) is characterized by dynamic temperature changes, which may be eligible to constitute as a heat source for ground heat pumps. This paper aims to present the regime of heat flow in SSDSL and its climatic conditions in central Europe, taking into consideration the agriculture periphery characteristics of Wroclaw (Poland). Emphasis was laid on the relation between the radiative properties and heat balance of two contrasting types of analyzed active surfaces (bare soil and grassy surface). The obtained experimental results gathered across a span nine years (August 2007–July 2016) and the conducted thermal analysis aim to evaluate the utilization of SSDSL as a heat source for ground heat pumps. The heat fluxes were measured between the active surface of the soils and their lower layers on an 8 cm depth. The soil temperature data between 5 cm to 10 cm under the ground and the temperatures of the active soil surfaces are represented. The results showed that the biggest monthly sums of ground positive fluxes (G > 0) reached about 80 MJ/m 2 (22.2 kWh/m 2 ) for the bare soil from May to July and the adequate average monthly sums reached maximum 55 MJ/m 2 (15.3 kWh/m 2 ) in July. The sums for the grassy surface were nearly twice lower, with the monthly maximum equals to 42.5 MJ/m 2 (11.7 kWh/m 2 ) in June and average value of 32 MJ/m 2 (8.9 kWh/m 2 ) in July. The nine-year average annual sums for G > 0 reached 337.6 MJ/m 2 (93.8 kWh/m 2 ) for the bare soil and 170.8 MJ/m 2 (59.9 kWh/m 2 ) for the grassy surface. The heat fluxes of the 5 cm depth soil were higher than for the 8 cm and 10 cm soil. Thus, the conclusion of the study suggests that the thermal performance of SSDSL is efficient enough to be used as an environment friendly heat source for interseasonal heat pump operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kigali amendment to the Montreal Protocol has highlighted the hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) phase out as a priority to reduce the future global mean temperature increase. R134a is the most abundant HFC in the atmosphere and therefore it must be substituted using environmentally benign alternatives. In the short term, blends of HFCs and hydrofluoroolefins can replace R134a. This paper experimentally evaluates R450A (GWP of 547), a non-flammable mixture of R1234ze(E) and R134a, in an R134a small capacity refrigeration system. The controlled experimental conditions cover evaporating temperatures from −15 to 12.5 °C and condensing temperature of 25, 30 and 35 °C (36 tests in total for each refrigerant). The experimental results showed that with only a thermostatic expansion valve adjustment the average R450A cooling capacity and COP are 9.9% and 2.9% lower than those measured using R134a. Besides, the observed compressor discharge temperature values of R450A are not greater than that of R134a. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising global temperature and environmental pollution as well as the demand for energy consumption have made finding new and affordable clean energy resources a serious challenge for governments. A possible solution could be renewable resources such as solar, wind or geothermal energies. Restructuring and deregulation have provided a competitive environment which makes analysis of these new energy sources necessary. Wind farms have been receiving more attention from governments because of their noticeable generation capability. The stochastic nature of the wind inflicts uncertainty on the output generation of wind farms which then causes some limitations for the participation of these farms in the electricity market. Thus, in this paper the effects of uncertainty in predicting the wind farm's power on locational marginal price in the market have been studied. According to the advantages and disadvantages of wind farm's power uncertainties, a procedure to maximize the social welfare is presented. The studies have been done on an 8-bus network for 24 h in a day-ahead electricity market. To do this, the farm power is predicted using Neural Network and Wavelet Transform and its uncertainties are calculated using the asymmetric Quantile Regression method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shifts in working temperature are an important issue that prevents the successful transfer of calibration models from one chemical instrument to another. This effect is of special relevance when working with gas sensor arrays modulated in temperature. In this paper, we study the use of multivariate techniques to transfer the calibration model from a temperature modulated gas sensor array to another when a global change of temperature occurs. To do so, we built 12 identical master sensor arrays composed of three different types of commercial Figaro sensors and acquired a dataset of sensor responses to three pure substances (ethanol, acetone and butanone) dosed at 7 concentrations. The master arrays are then shifted in temperature (from −50 to 50 °C, ΔT = 10 °C) and considered as slave arrays. Data correction is performed for an increasing number of transfer samples with 4 different calibration transfer techniques: Direct Standardization, Piece-wise Direct Standardization, Orthogonal Signal Correction and Generalized Least Squares Weighting. In order to evaluate the performance of the calibration transfer, we compare the Root Mean Square Error of Prediction (RMSEP) of master and slave arrays, for each instrument correction. Best results are obtained from Piece-wise Direct standardization, which exhibits the lower RMSEP values after correction for the smaller number of transfer samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cement treated materials are widely used as road bases in pavements. Shrinkage of these materials due to moisture and temperature changes is a critical issue for determining shrinkage cracking in pavements. This paper presents the influence of four mixture variables (masonry content, cement content, water content and degree of compaction) on drying shrinkage and coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) of cement treated demolition waste with recycled masonry and concrete (CTM i G r ). The experimental results showed that the masonry content was the dominating factor affecting dry shrinkage and CTE of CTM i G r . Increasing the masonry content can not only lead to an obvious decrease of dry shrinkage of CTM i G r , but also a low CTE level. Dry shrinkage of CTM i G r increased as the increase of cement content as well as degree of compaction and water content. The CTE of CTM i G r was between 7.58 × 10 −6 /°C and 10.22 × 10 −6 /°C, which was mainly determined by the masonry and cement content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon and oxygen isotope composition of well-preserved belemnite rostra and bulk carbonates from uppermost Aalenian to Lower Tithonian outcrops of the Pieniny Klippen Belt in the Carpathians is under discussion in this paper. New isotope and elemental data from the open marine basin in a rarely studied, northern part of the Tethys Ocean, corroborate the world-wide δ 13 C variations and global temperature changes of a seawater. The δ 13 C temporal trends display prominent positive shift in the Upper Callovian–Middle Oxfordian, as well as a declining trend in the Kimmeridgian–Tithonian interval. δ 18 O values of belemnite rostra suggest a decrease in temperatures during the latest Aalenian–Early Bajocian. The Upper Jurassic temperatures, estimated on the basis of oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios of belemnite rostra, indicate a warming of the seawater of ca. 5.5 °C in the Late Oxfordian–Early Kimmeridgian. This temperature rise is interpreted to be a result of the global climate warming present during the early Late Jurassic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently one of the heightened global concerns is increasing CO 2 atmospheric concentration which is argued to be one the main contributing factors in rising global temperature and climate change. Carbon capture and storage technologies show promise in this field with most of the research currently focused on large CO 2 emission sources such as coal fired power plants. Competitive CO 2 capture capacities were obtained with metal organic frameworks (MOFs), an emerging class of crystalline materials, as adsorbents at the CO 2 partial pressures expected in flue gas or lower, owing to their unique properties including high surface area, well-defined porosity, and ease of chemical tunability of the framework structure for introduction of additional physical and/or chemical properties. This review paper summarizes the recent and notable works in the area of CO 2 capture using MOFs as adsorbents with an emphasis on their structure–property-relationship, i.e., structural variations of MOF frameworks and their consequences to CO 2 capture performance. Structures of the MOFs reported are discussed and compared based on the effects of the choice for the main constituting parts such as metal centers and organic ligands. Effect of addition of functional groups have been found to be significant over the years and also discussed here. Various synthesis routes to achieve MOF crystals, and the role of MOFs particles within mixed matrix membranes for CO 2 separation are also examined. Lastly, an economic analysis of MOF synthesis techniques and implementation are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present organic carbon isotope records from continental sediments spanning the late Paleocene-middle Miocene (57.9–15.0 Ma) in the Lanzhou Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau to investigate terrestrial ecosystem-response to global climate change. The continuous sediment δ13C TOC values that we obtained range from −27.83‰ to −20.05‰. Combining these data with the sediment C/N ratios and n-alkane distribution, we infer that the major source of sediment organic matter was terrestrial C 3 plants. Furthermore, we note that both sediment δ13C TOC and δ13C n-alkanes values gradually become more positive from 57.9 to 26 Ma and then become relatively more negative from 26 to 15 Ma. These δ13C values vary closely with global temperature changes. We propose that global temperature controlled δ13C values with cooler conditions resulting in less rainfall in inland Asia, and vice versa. Therefore, mainly driven by the global temperature, the regional climate in the Lanzhou Basin gradually changed from warm-wet to cold-dry conditions during 57.9–26 Ma, and the climatic conditions became warmer and wetter again after 26 Ma. This long-sequence terrestrial ecologic environment study obtained from the northeast Tibetan Plateau powerfully demonstrates the first-order role of global climate in regulating the long-term evolution of regional environment. • We obtained continuous organic carbon isotope records on the NE Tibetan Plateau at 57.9–15 Ma. • δ13C TOC and δ13C n-alkanes values vary negatively with global temperature. • Rainfall dominated by global temperature affects plant δ13C change within terrestrial ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a modelling of the laser hardening process by a high-power diode laser (HPDL). Through numerical implementation into the finite element method (FEM) code ABAQUS, the model is used in the computer simulation of two case studies of laser hardening selected for experimental validation. In the experiment, 100 × 100 × 15 mm cuboid samples made of 50CrV4 steel were subjected to laser hardening with significantly different sets of applied technological parameters (laser beam power, laser beam velocity) but still aiming at attaining a comparable maximum temperature on the sample surface. The simulation considers two alternative approaches to microstructure evolution and subsequent material hardness determination: one relying on the heating rate dependent austenitisation temperatures ( Ac 1 and Ac 3 ) governing microstructure transformation kinetics and the other neglecting heating rate dependence. Physical objectivity of the computed results is verified based on the corresponding temperature field measurements on the sample surface during heat treatment process and hardness measurements through the thickness of the laser-hardened sample. The experimental validation clearly proves that considering austenite kinetics at a high temperature change rate in computer simulation is definitely more physically congruent. In the study of the applied process parameters impact, the effect of a higher temperature change rate on austenite kinetics is shown by the temperature shift of austenite and ferrite to austenite start formations. From the investigation of the effect of different heat inputs providing the same maximum temperature on the sample surface it results that deeper area of increased hardness is established when less laser beam power and velocity are applied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To realize smooth and high speed continuous casting, the urgent problem is to control the sticking-type breakout efficiently. In addition to improving casting process conditions of inducing stickers, the key is to develop active and accurate breakout prediction and healing control technology. In this paper, a novel logic judgment model for predicting stickers is presented, which is designed for more rows of thermocouples (TCs) in high density, and uses temperature change rate and vertical and horizontal detections to well recognize sticker propagation. Simulation results indicate that new model can accurately and timely detect all stickers, and has a good robustness. After sticking alarm, dynamic control strategies of casting speed according to the location of alarmed thermocouples are proposed for breakout prevention, by investigation on formation mechanism and recovery behavior of sticking-type breakout. The proposed model and control strategy have been validated through its application on a steel plant. The results show that the detection ratio for stickers and frequency of false alarm are 100% and 0.15% times/heat respectively, and the healing rate of the stickers has reached 100%. The case in which breakout still occurs after alarm has been eliminated. The present technology has achieved better performance in prediction and control of the sticking-type breakout and satisfies the requirement for field application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an initial step to aid Quaternary pollen interpretation, we investigated modern pollen deposits from both moss polsters within the forests and surface sediments from an open swamp (Dajiuhu swamp) in the Shennongjia Mountains, central China. Pollen spectra from the moss polsters show similar patterns to local vegetation zones following an elevation gradient. Such pollen spectra reflect more local vegetation landscape than regional one. However, the pollen spectra from the Dajiuhu swamp (especially in the center area) reflect regional vegetation with more deciduous than evergreen broadleaf trees. The pollen ratio of D/E (deciduous/evergreen tree pollen) is developed and its variations in different forest zones show a rising trend with increasing elevation, which gives an alternative to interpret palaeoelevation and/or temperature changes based on Quaternary pollen in monsoon climate controlled areas. The quantitative distribution of key pollen taxa and their source areas are also discussed in this paper. Our study contributes robust bases for palaeoecological interpretation in reconstructing past vegetation and climate changes using Quaternary pollen data in Shennongjia Mountains, central China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of thermal–hydraulics fluctuations in pressurized water reactors (e.g., local and global temperature or density fluctuations, as well as primary and charging pumps fluctuations) has various applications in calculation or measurement of the core dynamical parameters (temperature or density reactivity coefficients) in addition to thermal–hydraulics surveillance and diagnostics. In this paper, the thermal–hydraulics fluctuations in PWRs are investigated. At first, the single-phase thermal–hydraulics noise equations (in the frequency domain) are originally derived, without any simplifying assumptions. The fluctuations of all the coolant parameters, as well as the radial distribution of the temperature fluctuations in the fuel, gap and cladding are taken into account. Then, the derived governing equations are discretized using the finite volume method (FVM). Based on the discretized equations and the proposed algorithm of solving, a single heated channel noise calculation code (SHC-Noise) is developed, by which the steady-state and fluctuating parameters of PWR fuel assemblies can be calculated. The noise sources include the inlet coolant temperature and velocity fluctuations, in addition to the power density noises. The developed SHC-Noise code is benchmarked in different cases and scenarios. Furthermore, to show the effects of the power feedbacks, the closed-loop calculations are performed by means of the point kinetics noise theory. Both the space- and frequency-dependence of the temperature fluctuations are analyzed in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2009.11.006 Byline: Marcus Moench Keywords: Climate change; Adaptation; India; Himalaya; Floods; Water management; Adaptive management Abstract: The Ganga Basin, one of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable regions, is also among the world's most dynamic hydrological systems. Rivers exiting the Himalaya deposit massive amounts of sediment in the plains and shift their courses regularly. The natural dynamics of this system have a direct impact on populations. On August 18th, 2008, for example, embankments on the Kosi River (a tributary to the Ganges), failed and the channel shifted by as much as 120km (Sinha, 2008 [1]) displacing over sixty thousand people in Nepal and three and a half million in India. Transport and power systems disrupted across large areas. The embankment failure was not caused by an extreme event. Instead the breach represented a failure of interlinked physical and institutional infrastructure systems in an area characterized by complex social, political, and environmental relationships. Projected climate changes in the Ganga Basin are likely to greatly exacerbate vulnerability (Adaptation Study Team, 2008 [2]). While the Kosi breach had nothing to do with climate change, such events will increase if climatic variability, sediment transport, and extreme events increase. Understanding how populations can respond to the dynamic nature of rivers such as the Kosi is, as a result, essential to develop strategies for adapting to climatic change. Understanding is also essential at the policy level for building adaptive capacity. The challenge is to identify policy frameworks and their relationship to interlinked physical and institutional infrastructure combinations that create environments enabling adaptation within households, communities, and regions. This paper explores the challenges and opportunities facing the development of adaptive policy frameworks in the Ganga Basin. The characteristics of frameworks that are adaptive in themselves and enable adaptation along with their relationship to different types of interlinked institutional and infrastructure systems are explored first. Following this, the case of the Kosi embankment along with the projected impacts of climate change across the Ganga Basin is used to identify the key challenges and opportunities that are common in many regions. The paper concludes with specific observations on the development of adaptive policy frameworks for responding to climate change in complex developing country contexts. Author Affiliation: Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET), 948 North St., Suite 7, Boulder, CO 80304, United States Article History: Received 15 April 2009; Revised 26 October 2009; Accepted 20 November 2009

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.07.011 Byline: Dennis Ray Morgan Abstract: This paper examines the foundation for two scenarios of the future depicting how human civilization might destroy itself and possibly bring about the extinction of the human race in the process. The scenarios are based upon the two human-generated 'fires' deeply ingrained within industrial civilization: (1) the nuclear 'fire' of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and their automated 'launch on warning' alert systems and (2) the slow burning 'fire' of global warming and runaway climate change. This paper also examines obstacles that are currently preventing the necessary first steps towards solving these problems. Author Affiliation: Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus - South Korea

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2009.04.011 Byline: Eduard Bauerfeind (a), Eva-Maria Nothig (a), Agnieszka Beszczynska (a), Kirsten Fahl (a), Lars Kaleschke (b), Kathrin Kreker (a), Michael Klages (a), Thomas Soltwedel (a), Christiane Lorenzen (a), Jan Wegner (a) Keywords: Vertical particle flux; Inter-annual variability; Ice coverage; Species composition; Fram Strait Abstract: Since 2000 long-term measurements of vertical particle flux have been performed with moored sediment traps at the long-term observatory HAUSGARTEN in the eastern Fram Strait (79[degrees]N/4[degrees]E). The study area, which is seasonally covered with ice, is located in the confluence zone of the northward flowing warm saline Atlantic water with cold, low salinity water masses of Arctic origin. Current projections suggest that this area is particularly vulnerable to global warming. Total matter fluxes and components thereof (carbonate, particulate organic carbon and nitrogen, biogenic silica, biomarkers) revealed a bimodal seasonal pattern showing elevated sedimentation rates during May/June and August/September. Annual total matter flux (dry weight, DW) at [approximately equal to]300m depth varied between 13 and 32gm.sup.-2 a.sup.-1 during 2000 and 2005. Of this total flux 6-13% was due to CaCO.sub.3, 4-21% to refractory particulate organic carbon (POC), and 3-8% to biogenic particulate silica (bPSi). The annual flux of all biogenic components together was almost constant during the period studied (8.5-8.8gm.sup.-2 a.sup.-1), although this varied from 27% to 67% of the total annual flux. The fraction was lowest in a year characterized by the longest duration of ice coverage (91 and 70 days for the calendar year and summer season, May-September, respectively). Biomarker analyses revealed that organic matter originating from marine sources was present in excess of terrigenious material in the sedimented matter throughout most of the study period. Fluxes of recognizable phyto- and protozooplankton cells amounted up to 60x10.sup.6 m.sup.-2 d.sup.-1. Diatoms and coccolithophorids were the most abundant organisms. Diatoms, mainly pennate species, dominated during the first years of the investigation. A shift in the composition occurred during the last year when numbers of diatoms declined considerably, leading to a dominance of coccolithoporids. This was also reflected in a decrease in the sedimentation of bPSi. The sedimentation of biogenic matter, however, did not differ from the amount observed during the previous years. Among the larger organisms, pteropods at times contributed significantly to both the total matter and CaCO.sub.3, fluxes. Author Affiliation: (a) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Deep-Sea Research Group, Am Handelshafen 12, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany (b) University of Hamburg, Center of Marine and Atmospheric Research (ZMAW), Institute of Oceanography (IfM), BundesstraAe 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany Article History: Received 2 March 2008; Revised 27 April 2009; Accepted 28 April 2009

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2009.01.001 Byline: Valentina Bosetti (a), Carlo Carraro (b), Emanuele Massetti (c), Alessandra Sgobbi (a), Massimo Tavoni (c) Keywords: Climate policy; Energy R&D; Investments; Stabilization costs Abstract: Stabilizing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at levels expected to prevent dangerous climate changes has become an important, long-term global objective. It is therefore crucial to identify a cost-effective way to achieve this objective. In this paper, we use WITCH, a hybrid climate-energy-economy model, to obtain a quantitative assessment of equilibrium strategies that stabilize CO.sub.2 concentrations at 550 or 450ppm. Since technological change is endogenous and multifaceted in WITCH, and the energy sector is modeled in detail, we can provide a description of the ideal combination of technical progress and alternative energy investment paths in achieving the sought stabilization targets. Given that the model accounts for interdependencies and spillovers across 12 regions of the world, equilibrium strategies are the outcome of a dynamic game through which inefficiency costs induced by global strategic interactions can be assessed. Our results emphasize the drastic change in the energy mix that will be necessary to control climate change, the huge investments in existing and new technologies implied, and the crucial role of breakthrough technological innovation. Author Affiliation: (a) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and CMCC, Italy (b) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, University of Venice, CEPR, CESifo, CEPS and CMCC, San Giobbe 873, Venice, Italy (c) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Catholic University of Milan and CMCC, Italy Article History: Received 3 January 2008; Revised 5 January 2009; Accepted 20 January 2009 Article Note: (footnote) [star] This paper is part of the research work being carried out by the Climate Change Modeling and Policy Research Program of the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and by the Climate Impacts and Policy Division of the EuroMediterranean Center on Climate Change. Financial support from the Italian Ministry of the Environment and from the Transust.Scan project is gratefully acknowledged. Comments from participants at seminars in Brussels, Louvain-la-Neuve, Mannheim, Rome and Copenhagen helped to improve the paper. The usual disclaimer applies.

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2008.09.006 Byline: Richard Hamblyn Abstract: This paper is concerned with the historical dimension of the current debates on climate change, and argues that the history of the understanding of climate change has itself become part of the rhetorical account. Key historic moments of disclosure and revelation have become central to the ways in which climate change is presented as a persuasive narrative today. This paper takes a discursive approach to exploring the background of these signal moments in climate change history, and aims to show how they have helped to shape the terms of the current debate. Author Affiliation: Writer in Residence, UCL Environment Institute, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhg.2008.09.005 Byline: Stephen Daniels, Georgina H. Endfield Abstract: This paper introduces a special feature on narratives of climate change, containing papers by Richard Hamblyn, Sverker Sorlin, Michael Bravo and Diana Liverman. The feature reflects the rising cultural profile of climate change in the public sphere, as represented, for example, by Al Gore's documentary film, An Inconvenient Truth, and art exhibitions devoted to the subject. Author Affiliation: School of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England, UK

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2008.07.015 Byline: Kyung-Il Chang (a), Kuh Kim (a), Yun-Bae Kim (a), William J. Teague (b), Jae Chul Lee (c), Jae-Hak Lee (d) Keywords: East/Japan Sea; Ulleung Interplain Gap; Deep currents; Volume transport Abstract: Deep circulation in the southwestern East/Japan Sea through the Ulleung Interplain Gap (UIG), a possible pathway for deep-water exchange, was directly measured for the first time. Five concurrent current meter moorings were positioned to effectively span the UIG between the islands of Ulleungdo to the west and Dokdo to the east. They provided a 495-day time series of deep currents below 1800m depth spanning the full breadth of the East Sea Deep and Bottom Water flowing from the Japan Basin into the Ulleung Basin. The UIG circulation is found to be mainly a two-way flow with relatively weak southward flows directed into the Ulleung Basin over about two-thirds of the western UIG. A strong, persistent, and narrow compensating northward outflow occurs in the eastern UIG near Dokdo and is first referred to here as the Dokdo Abyssal Current. The width of the abyssal current is about 20km below 1800m depth. The low-frequency variability of the transports is dominated by fluctuations with a period of about 40 days for inflow and outflow transports. The 40-day fluctuations of both transports are statistically coherent, and occur almost concurrently. The overall mean transport of the deep water below 1800m into the Ulleung Basin over the 16.5 months is about 0.005Sv (1Sv=10.sup.6 m.sup.3 s.sup.-1), with an uncertainty of 0.025Sv indicating net transport is negligible below 1800m through the UIG. Author Affiliation: (a) Research Institute of Oceanography/School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, 599 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Korea (b) Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, MS 39529, USA (c) Korea Inter-University Institute of Ocean Science, Pukyong National University, Busan 608-737, Korea (d) Climate Change and Coastal Disaster Research Department, Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan 425-600, Korea Article History: Received 21 April 2008; Revised 28 July 2008; Accepted 29 July 2008

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr.2007.11.003 Byline: Victoria J. Hobson (a), Clive R. McMahon (a)(b), Anthony Richardson (c)(d), Graeme C. Hays (a) Keywords: Climate change; ICOADS; Range extension; SST Abstract: Anomalously warm air temperatures in various parts of the world have been widely noted in recent decades. In marine systems, biological indicators such as the range of plankton and fish have been used to indicate impacts of ocean warming, although for many regions recent ocean warming does not exceed short-term warming events over the last two centuries. Here we use International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) sea-surface temperature data to update analysis in the North Atlantic to show that present warm conditions are currently no more persistent than those encountered in the last 150 years. We show that the position of various isotherms, which play a central role in influencing the distribution of marine taxa ranging from plankton to fish and turtles, are more regularly found further north in recent years than at any time since the 1850s. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Biological Sciences, Institute of Environmental Sustainability, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK (b) School for Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia (c) Department of Mathematics, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia (d) CSIRO Marine Research, Cleveland, Qld 4163, Australia Article History: Received 19 March 2007; Revised 6 November 2007; Accepted 12 November 2007

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI_2 represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The ANEMI_2 model is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adapting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This paper outlines the ANEMI_2 model and its nine system components: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. To evaluate market and nonmarket costs and benefits of climate change, the ANEMI_2 model integrates an economic optimization approach, with a focus on the international energy stock and fuel price, climate interrelations and temperature change. The model takes into account all major greenhouse gases (GHG) influencing global temperature and sea-level variation. Results from several scenarios (a) compare well with other information available in the scientific literature, (b) present comprehensive response of the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system to the selected scenarios, and (c) confirm the support role of the ANEMI_2 model in the policy development and analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2005.02.003 Byline: David L. Kelly (a), Charles D. Kolstad (b)(c), Glenn T. Mitchell (d) Abstract: The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm's productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits ([+ or -]) due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Economics, University of Miami, P.O. Box 248126, Coral Gables, FL 33134, USA (b) Department of Economics, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA (c) University Fellow, Resources for the Future, Washington DC, USA (d) LECG, Los Angeles, CA 90071, USA Article History: Received 5 June 2003

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.008 Byline: Bruce Tonn Abstract: This paper argues that imprecise probability can be used to describe uncertainty about scenarios. Scenarios are conceptualized as written descriptions of potential future worlds that are based on assessments of economic, political, social, technological, and environmental trends [This description of scenarios follows that provided by Peter Schwartz. P. Schwartz [9], The Art of the Long View, Doubleday, New York, 1991 [9]. Because written, qualitative scenarios are beginning to find application in important policy contexts, such as with respect to global climate change [N. Nakicenovic, R. Swart [5], Emission Scenarios: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 2000 [5], where uncertainty estimates are of some importance to policy makers, there is a growing need to address the question of whether uncertainty estimates can be assessed over qualitative scenarios. Section 1 of this short paper contrasts imprecise probability with standard classical (or precise) probability. Section 2 provides a technique for assessing the amount of information (referred to as 'determinateness') expressed by imprecise (i.e. lower and upper) probabilities over a set of scenarios. Section 3 discusses how to assess to what degree the scenarios may represent the whole space of potential futures. Section 4 brings all the pieces together to show how scenario developers can use measures of determinateness and the coverage of a set of scenarios over all potential possible futures to improve the development and use of scenarios. Author Affiliation: Department of Political Science, University of Tennessee-Knoxville, McClung Tower, Room 1018, Knoxville, TN 37996, USA