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Abstract: This paper reviews a large number of approaches that have been used for considering technologically driven profound societal change. We agree with Vinge''s suggestion for naming events that are “capable of rupturing the fabric of human history” (or leading to profound societal changes) as a “singularity”. This is a useful terminology especially since a mathematically rigorous singularity seems impossible for technological and related societal change. The overview of previous work is done within the context of a broader look at the role of technological change within human history. The review shows that a wide variety of methods have been used and almost all point to singularities in the present century particularly in the middle of the century. The diversity of the methods is reassuring about the potential robustness of these predictions. However, the subjectivity of labeling events as singularities (even well studied past events) is a concern about all of the methods and thus one must carefully pause when relying in any way on these predictions. The general lack of empirical research in this area is also a concern. Quantitative considerations (by proponents and opponents) about past singularities or future singularities often confound two types of metrics. The first type is essentially related to diffusion of technologies (or bundles of technologies) where the logistic curve is empirically well established as the proper time dependence. The second type of metric is for technological capability where hyper-exponentials are empirically well established for their time dependence. In this paper, we consider two past singularities (arguably with important enough social change to qualify) in which the basic metric is alternatively of one type or another. The globalization occurring under Portuguese leadership of maritime empire building and naval technological progress is characterized by a metric describing diffusion. The revolution in time keeping, on the other hand, is characterized by a technological capability metric. For these two cases (and thus robust to the choice of metric type), we find that: [•] People undergoing profound technologically-driven societal change do not sense a singularity. [•] The societal impacts depend in complicated ways on human needs, institutional variables and other more uncertain factors and thus are particularly hard to project; [•] The societal impact is apparently not determined by the rate of progress on either type of metric or by projections to mathematical points with either kind of metric. This finding supports the existing concept that social change due to technology is a more holistic phenomenon than can be characterized by any technical metric. In the final section, we use these empirical findings as the basis for exploring the possibilities for and nature of future singularities. In this we speculate that the potential for a future strong singularity based upon computational capability does not appear particularly probable but that one may already be occurring and is not fully noticed by those (us) going through it. Other possible 21st century singularities (life extension and fossil fuel elimination are two examples considered) may also be already underway rather than waiting for the predicted mid-century changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The goal of seeking to understand the development over time of drug policies is a specific version of the more general intellectual project of finding ways of explaining social change. The latter has been a preoccupation of some of the greatest thinkers within the social sciences of the last 200 years, from Foucault all the way back to the three nineteenth-century pioneers, Marx, Durkheim and Weber. I describe this body of work as ‘historical sociology’. In this paper, I outline how a particular approach to historical sociology can be fruitfully drawn upon to understand the development of drug policy, using by way of illustration the example of the analysis of a recent transformation in British drug policy: the rise of the criminal justice agenda. I conclude by arguing that by looking at developments in drug policy in this way, some new insights are opened up. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides a rational choice analysis of rituals, defined as predictable and regular observances of acts or procedures, which have a symbolic element resulting in the inculcation or reinforcement of shared values and beliefs. The purpose is threefold. First, to make clear why rituals matter for economic and social outcomes. Second, to engage in interdisciplinary exchange by demonstrating how economics can be blended with insights from other social sciences. Third, to gain insight into why rituals exist and persist, as well as the process through which rituals change. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Few methods exist to operationalize democratic science policy governance frameworks. • We offer one approach via a participatory technology assessment (pTA) method. • Our pTA method has three phases: framing, deliberation, and results integration. • We share case studies of projects that catalyzed innovations on our method's design. • We conclude that diverse actors can use and adapt this method for many issues. Decades of social science scholarship have documented and explored the interconnected nature of science, technology, and society. Multiple theoretical frameworks suggest the potential to direct this process of mutual shaping toward desired outcomes and away from undesired ones through broader inclusion of new voices and visions. In 2010, a group of researchers, educators, and policy practitioners established the Expert and Citizen Assessment of Science and Technology (ECAST) network to operationalize these frameworks. Over the course of a decade, ECAST developed an innovative and reflexive participatory technology assessment (pTA) method to support democratic science policy decision-making in different technical, social, and political contexts. The method's reflexive nature gave rise to continuous innovations and iterative improvements. The current ECAST pTA method includes three participatory phases: 1) Problem Framing; 2) ECAST Citizen Deliberation; and 3) Results and Integration. Proving adaptable and replicable, the method has generated outputs for decision-making on a variety of science and technology issues and at governance scales ranging from the local to the national and international. ECAST's distributed network model has also promoted independence, continuity, and sustainability through changing sociopolitical contexts. In this paper, we detail the current state of the ECAST pTA method; share mini case studies to illustrate circumstances that prompted new method innovations; and offer a vision for further developing and integrating pTA into democratic science policy decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2005.10.002 Byline: Peter Hayward, Joseph Voros Abstract: This paper discusses how the social change theory of P.R. Sarkar is introduced to students of the Australian Foresight Institute's Masters in Strategic Foresight program through an action learning process. Through action learning, the student can come to appreciate the qualitative difference in understanding that can be obtained through taking an 'integral' or meta-perspective on social change processes. Such a perspective increases the efficacy and scope of all social interventions. Author Affiliation: Australian Foresight Institute, Swinburne University of Technology, John Street, Hawthorn, Vic. 3122, Australia

Science and humanity are seen as comparative parts of an evolutionary process. Each is striving for negentrophy (potential for change), range, and control. DNA and language developed out of biological hypercycles, an evolutionary period of interaction and collaboration rather than competition. Science is further seen as a meta language. It offers society a further tool for control or power over the biological world. Genetic engineering is seen as an inevitable step. Eigen's theory of DNA development is referred to throughout the paper. Diagrams illustrate the author's ideas.