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This study examines the effects of subway extension on housing prices in affluent urban neighborhoods, focusing on the Q-line extension in Manhattan, New York City. Utilizing synthetic controls and treatment effects estimators, distinct pricing trends across property types are revealed, particularly condominiums. The observed pricing dynamics deviate from the assumption that increasing supplies are associated with price discounts. Moreover, the connection between price discounts and noise complaints is not observed, highlighting the significant role of demand-side factors, especially neighborhood characteristics, in shaping housing prices. An unexpected demographic shift is observed, suggesting that the Q-line extension may disproportionately benefit non-white and low-income groups, challenging the prevailing gentrification narrative. We use the term "inverse premiumization" to denote the phenomenon where anticipated price increases in affluent neighborhoods due to transit improvements fail to materialize. Furthermore, our analysis of speculative behavior reveals a spike in short-term growth during the public notice period, gradually slowing down during construction and operation phases. These findings offer the nuanced adverse effects of subway extension on housing prices, contributing to our understanding of short-to medium-term price premiums and discounts. These insights are key considerations for city planners and policymakers navigating urban development, housing market, and speculative behavior dynamics. • Examines the short-to medium-term impact of the Q-line extension on housing prices in affluent urban neighborhoods. • Reveals that increases in supply not necessarily lead to price discounts. • Uncovers unintended benefits of subway extension for non-whites and low-income groups. • Introduces the concept of "inverse premiumization" related to gentrification and speculative behavior. • Provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between subway extension and property values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have frequently taken urban density as a surrogate for economic efficiency and applied composite scores such as urban intensity to assess the existing physical forms of towns. However, measures of intensity might nuance crude calculations of density while considering how such measures relate to future plans and the process of transformations. This paper used open source geospatial data and regulatory detailed planning to measure urban intensity of the existing and the planned. Spatial analytical techniques were applied to compute accessibility to destinations, building density, compactness of development, and diversity of land use function of sixteen specialty towns in China. The results showed that the regulatory detailed planning of these cases might not improve town planning measured by intensity in terms of spatial arrangement in the time horizon of 15–20 years. We found that well-integrated monocentric forms with the finer street network could potentially provide a more suitable spatial distribution for mid-sized towns measured by urban intensity, no matter whether the urban form is linear or center-spreading. Moreover, the comparison between the existing and the planned implies that the poly-centric urban form for mid-sized towns in China could end up with a lower score of urban intensity. We outline a framework of urban intensity measures that include analytical consideration of what is there now, planned to what is forthcoming, and conceptual in terms of time and space. • Differentiating urban intensity from density • Using urban block as the spatial unit of study is more accurate than a synthetic spatial grid. • Comparing existing and planned conditions of medium-sized towns • Evaluation and intervention of town planning policies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]